Cody Pirkl

They probably do believe that Larnach and Wallner aren't MLB worthy because at this point the only other explanation is that they don't want to admit they were wrong. The problem for me personally with that is that they believed Kepler and Gallo would be the answers heading into the season and were clearly wrong. I'd say we've reached a point in the season where the risk of these guys coming up and being worse are so low that it doesn't even matter. The Twins have one of the worst records in baseball dating back to May and two corner outfielders have been very bad while two top prospects rot in Triple-A. The absolute worst case scenario is they come up, perform a little worse than the incumbents, and the bad baseball team gets a little more bad while young players get experience for the future.

I agree that Buxton and Correa are the main issues but that doesn't give everyone else a pass. Twins offensive production in left field is 23% below league average and in right field is 9% below league average. Unlike center, those are offensive premium positions, and elite defense alone doesn't make a meaningful difference to make up for it. Taylor has been exactly what the Twins wanted and wouldn't be an issue if the players manning offense-first positions did their jobs. They can't get rid of Buxton or Correa, but they can get rid of a corner OF. Hell, there are eager replacements that could be around 5+ years after Gallo and Kepler are off the team. It's an easy lever to pull with little downside at this point.

It's been reported that Kepler has made it known to the Twins that his preference is not to play centerfield FWIW. If it were more of a question of whether he's still capable, I think it would be reported that way. I also can't imagine a scenario where the Twins just think his defense wouldn't be up to snuff there. Nick Gordon played there plenty before getting injured and Willi Castro still starts games there. I'd bet on both of those players being decidedly worse defensively than Max Kepler.

It’s time to make some personnel changes to try to shake up the lineup, and two obvious options exist to move on from. If the Twins finally decide to make some tangible changes, which left-handed corner outfielder should it be? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have two corner outfielders in Triple-A with nothing to prove. Trevor Larnach currently has a 140 wRC+ for St. Paul, and despite his struggles at the MLB level, the clock is ticking on the former 1st round pick. Matt Wallner may have passed him up, as his 132 wRC+ comes with a reduced strikeout rate and a recent red-hot stretch with the Twins. The argument has been made for quite some time that these young bats deserve a look over struggling veterans Max Kepler and Joey Gallo. The opposing view is that they could wind up being even worse. As the Twins have surpassed the halfway point of the season and Kepler and Gallo have tanked so significantly, that argument should now be off the table. They have almost nothing to lose by turning a lineup spot over to a potential piece of the future. Which struggling veteran should be let go? Joey Gallo Gallo has been versatile and looked like a great acquisition to begin the season. Unfortunately, since May 1, Gallo owns a .167/.281/.368 slash line with a 43.7% strikeout rate. He's still taking his walks at 13.7%, but the whiffs have become untenable in a Twins lineup that's on pace to break the MLB strikeout record. In addition, Gallo's days as a gold-glove-caliber defender are behind him at 29 years old. Being the massive athlete he is, age has led to a decline in sprint speed to below-average levels, and his cannon of an arm isn't put to use all that often in right field. In addition, he's had multiple soft tissue injuries leading to IL stints, making him unreliable to even remain on the field aside from his production when he is in the lineup. He looked fantastic defensively at first base at the beginning of the year, but Kirilloff's return has filled the left-handed first-base role, and first-base defense isn't a premium skill. Gallo's immense struggles make parting ways with him a bit more complicated, as although the Dodgers traded a Double-A pitcher for him at last season's deadline, his struggles persisting through a second season suggests that he could be in a full-on decline. Even a Double-A pitcher seems like a longshot trade return on Joey Gallo. Not being able to get a respectable return shouldn't keep him on the roster all season, but he is still capable of going on white-hot streaks of offensive damage, as we saw to begin the season. The Twins are likely considering that possibility as they ponder whether they want to gift him to another team for free. They could cut down on the strikeout problem by parting with Gallo, but do they want to risk missing out on the potential upside he showed to begin the season while likely paying the remainder of his $11m to not play for the Twins? Max Kepler Kepler was slashing .189/.261/.365 through June 18, when he went on a hot streak for four games, going 6-16 with three homers. He then went on an 0-11 stretch before heating up again, going 8-18 with two more homers. He finished the first half riding an 0-16 stretch into the break. Some say Kepler's two hot streaks may have saved his job, but that may give the Twins too much credit. Since the beginning of 2021, Kepler has been slashing .216/.306/.387, good for an OPS around .50 points below a league-average right fielder offensively. His defense has been great (though he's had some questionable play lately), but he's declined to be part of the solution in center field and is now a glove-first corner outfield option on a team struggling offensively. All of this was just as true coming into the season when the Twins declined trade offers for Kepler and dedicated $8.5m in payroll with several top prospects on their way that were deserving of the opportunity. The fact that the Twins may have been on the precipice of parting with Kepler before his hot stretch is likely wishful thinking, as it seems at this point that no level of offensive struggles will keep the Twins from admitting they made the wrong decision this winter. In terms of keeping Kepler over Gallo, he has the defensive prowess he appears to have lost. His game also has less swing-and-miss, another potential tiebreaker for the Twins' whiff-happy lineup. He's also shown more offensively than Gallo recently, even though it came in tiny spurts surrounded by more of the same of what we've seen the last few years from Kepler. Kepler also has a team option for 2024 attached to him, which can be viewed as either positive or negative. On the one hand, $10m would be a bargain if he can hit even league-average levels with his typical defense. That adds value if anyone believes Kepler can hold up that end of the deal. Conversely, teams won't pay for a league-average bat with two years of control. Given how long his offense has trended down, the asking price, even from last winter, will have dropped even further. The Twins may continue to overvalue him and not only hold onto him at the deadline but run it back in 2024 regardless of his output in hopes that Kepler somehow rebounds from three years of below-average production at age 31. It's now a well-known fact that nobody values Max Kepler as highly as the team he's burned repeatedly. It's almost always good to have options on a Major League roster. Unfortunately, the Twins have multiple options for which underperforming players can be jettisoned from the roster to try to create a spark. There's no shot it would happen, but there's an argument to be made that they should move on from both Gallo and Kepler. Operating under the assumption that there's one move to make, it likely comes down to Gallo vs. Kepler. Is there a wrong answer regarding who the Twins should move on from? Should they ride it out with both? Let us know below. View full article

The Twins bullpen is incredibly short currently with several injuries to key contributors. While it could hurt the team, it could create long-term opportunities. Could any of the stand-ins pitch themselves into a future role? Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports At one point, the Twins had four pitchers in their bullpen who were essentially called up from St. Paul out of necessity. Brent Headrick was recently sent back upon Jorge Lopez’s return, and Josh Winder was replaced by Cole Sands who was activated from the IL. Three arms remain, and Thielbar and Brock Stewart are not quite on the verge of returning, there’s a short window for these guys to prove themselves. Jordan Balazovic Perhaps the likeliest candidate to find himself as a textbook reliever down the line, the Twins have already started the process of switching Balazovic to a traditional relief role It’s a bit disappointing, but this is the path many pitching prospects take. Balazovic was being used as a long reliever in St. Paul, and the hope is that his stuff plays up enough to legitimately help in the late innings rather than bouncing up and down to Triple-A after making bulk inning appearances. Balazovic’s stuff hasn’t shown through, as despite his sub 2.00 ERA, he’s not even struck out 15% of the hitters he’s faced. He has cut down on the walks significantly though, and his slider and changeup have drawn some whiffs. If he can harness the stuff that once made him a top starting pitching prospect, Balazovic could become a legitimate weapon in the bullpen down the stretch. Oliver Ortega Ortega was one of the Twins few waiver claims prior to the season and later passed through waivers and stuck around. Like Balazovic, the stuff hasn’t shown through in his brief MLB stint so far, but Ortega was dominant in St. Paul, pitching to a 2.22 ERA with an over 30% K rate. He has a curveball and slider that each draw a whiff rate of at least 36% to pair with a fastball that’s been around 95 but has been in the upper 90s in previous seasons. It’s easy to see why the Twins took a flier, as even at 26 years of age, Ortega has all of the tools to become a valuable MLB reliever. Cole Sands Most people think of the two inning, five walks performance from Sands on May 13, but he’s been great otherwise. Sands was working on a change in arm angle and has looked dominant at times. In St. Paul, he’s struck out nearly 35% of batters faced and struck out over a batter per inning in the MLB. The walks haven’t been an issue aside from the one outing and he’s avoided the homer-happy concerns that have popped up last year. Sands has leaned into a split finger this season to pair with his plus breaking ball and fastball that has ticked up near 94 mph now that he’s fully transitioned to the bullpen. He should in theory have a pitch mix to attack hitters from both sides of the plate, and given his success in Triple-A, it may just be time to see what Cole Sands can do to help the Twins at nearly 26 years of age. The Twins lack of proven bullpen depth hasn’t hurt them as of yet, and hopefully the offense and starting pitching can continue to soften the blow of the injuries they’ve suffered. While they wait for some of their proven relievers to return, it doesn’t have to be all negative. There’s a chance one of these arms could come out on the other end of this as a semi-established option in the late innings. Do you agree? Does anyone stand out above the rest? Let us know below! View full article

There aren't numbers we can point to. These are Major League hitters, they have the ability to make their own decisions and they're the ones executing. I do believe the philosophy of the organization has something to do with the way the offense has struggled, but we can't know to what degree that's been a factor. If someone like Carlos Correa doesn't like what the hitting coaches are telling him, he's not going to get cut for choosing not to follow that plan.

Because not every middle of the order hitter is at the top of the leaderboards for grounding into double plays. There may be more middle of the order hitters on that leaderboard but that doesn't make it any less significant when a particular player is leading all of baseball in that category. That's just a small piece of info that alludes to how many rallies he's killed, and other examples of him not being clutch are referred to later.

I get the concept but he's 4 away from his career high in double plays halfway through the season... which he set last year. There's not really a point in painting this as a good thing when the overall numbers are so poor. If the context were that he's been producing overall and in the clutch but also happened to be leading the league in double plays it wouldn't be worth pointing out. That's the exact opposite of what's happening though.

People have different opinions!

Something on the coaching staff could be the problem, but there's no tangible evidence we can measure on that. Correa's numbers have been terrible and they come in the biggest spots.

The offense continues to struggle up and down the lineup, as the Twins hover around .500 and fail to get on any run of success. While many hitters are underperforming, Carlos Correa is the biggest issue. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports All was lost on multiple occasions this offseason as the Twins appeared to wait out the Carlos Correa sweepstakes to the point that the rest of the free agent market was bare. Two deals miraculously failed in order to deliver Correa back to Minnesota, with many worrying about a sketchy physical on his ankle that could become a problem. Health could still be a long-term concern, but the Twins have bigger issues present day. Considering his career, Correa is the type of hitter that you pencil into the top four of a lineup daily. Correa's previous track record was a draw for the Twins, who needed another star player to pair with Byron Buxton and help soften the blow of his inevitable missed time. So far in 2023, Correa's reputation as a top-of-the-lineup hitter has cost the Twins dearly. It's no secret that Correa has been a massive disappointment. He remains a below-league-average hitter as we near the halfway point, showing no consistency at the plate and often appearing to be completely guessing on the next pitch he'll see. It's hard even to call him streaky, as he's rarely even put together consecutive games of contributing to the offense in any fashion whatsoever. Multiple times he's taken one big swing to revive hope that he had awakened from his season-long slumber, only to return to his rally-killing ways. And therein lies a massive problem with the Twins' offense. A struggling hitter is a struggling hitter, and it's primarily a bummer when said struggling hitter is the recent recipient of the largest contract in Twins' history. The problem is that Correa's struggles come in the biggest spots because of where he hits in the lineup. Too often, the Twins have lined up a rally for the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th spot in the order that Correa is occupying, only for him to come up empty. There are multiple pieces of evidence showing just how damaging he's been. For starters, Correa leads the American League in double plays grounded into. That is a brutal stat for a player to have in the middle of the lineup. Not only is he struggling with runners on in general, but he also has a .606 OPS with runners in scoring position. As disappointing as he's been overall with a .695 OPS, Carlos Correa has dipped even lower when it matters most. This poor performance is all captured in his team-worst Win Probability Added. The Twins don’t get many rallies going, but when they do and they fall on Carlos Correa, they’re often snuffed out in short order. It all may be a result of randomness, but Correa’s struggles come with bright red flags in 2023. As Correa nears just 29 years of age, he appears to have declined in a way you’d expect from a hitter in their mid-30s. He’s hitting .183 against fastballs with his worst expected stats against heaters of his entire career. His whiff rate on fastballs is his worst since 2016. It’s likely a big reason he’s barely managing a .700 OPS when ahead in the count. Hopefully it’s a problem with approach rather than a decline in bat speed. Either way, it’s too easy for opposing pitchers to simply throw fastballs and get Correa out so far in 2023. It's becoming more and more evident that organization-wide issues are at play when it comes to the Twins' offense. Throw a dart at the lineup card, and you'll likely hit a player underperforming. That said, Carlos Correa is the biggest potential game-changer in the offense, and he's often changed the game in the opposition's favor in 2023. Carlos Correa has to find some consistency, or the rest of the offensive issues don't matter. View full article

He was swinging at everything in Triple-A too, he just faced worse pitching. It was a precursor for what we've seen in the MLB, it's just that in the MLB teams will be all over it and he'll stop seeing pitches to hit (aside from the occasional at bat against Corey Kluber).

It's not a matter of learning from the coaches, it's a matter of facing pitching that affords more opportunities to adjust. It's harder to work on mechanical and plate approach changes in the MLB when you're fighting for your life against the best pitchers on the planet. We see hitters fall into bad habits as a result because they don't have time to adjust when they're just trying to keep their head above water. That's what it looks like Royce is doing when he's swinging at absolutely everything.

But Solano has been one of their few dependable hitters at 1B which is the reason Kirilloff is in the outfield. If they were out of the race I'd agree.

Royce Lewis has held his own since returning from his second ACL tear. That being said, he has a ways to go toward being a consistent contributor. Should the next steps happen in the MLB? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Royce Lewis has put on quite the display of clutch hitting in a Twins lineup that needs saving seemingly on a nightly basis. His handful of monumental moments have been impressive, and in some cases, have single-handedly won the Twins games. Those moments have likely covered up a number of red flags in his body of work thus far in many fans' eyes, and it’s fair to wonder whether those red flags should be addressed on the MLB roster rather than St. Paul. On the season, Lewis has slashed a respectable .281/.305/.404 (.709). His saving grace thus far on his total slash line was a stretch of what some would call batted ball luck, hitting safely in seven consecutive at-bats at one point. He’s walked just twice thus far, swinging at over half of the pitches he sees. Lewis has swung at 40% of pitches he’s seen outside of the zone. Alex Kirilloff has swung at just 27% of such pitches for reference. In addition, Lewis has struck out over one-third of the time and has a 36.4% whiff rate against fastballs. He’s being overly aggressive and has struggled to even make contact against heaters. A few weeks ago, it would have been easy to say “it is what it is” and allow him to continue trying to work through it. It was hard to expect him to be at the top of his game after missing so much time. Jose Miranda has heated up considerably recently, however. There are a few factors that come into play here. For starters, Jose Miranda has previously shown the ability to hit in the majors. Clearly, something was broken, as his poor production followed him into Triple-A after he was demoted. While it was always possible Lewis could simply play so well that Miranda’s production was a non-factor, Lewis hasn’t held up his side of the bargain with what is currently a below-league-average slash line. With Miranda appearing to be trending back up, it may be time to give him another shot at contributing. Just a few months ago, he was relied upon to be a middle-of-the-order contributor. More importantly, the long-term production of Royce Lewis has to be taken into account. This isn’t a Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner situation where it can be argued that their struggles can’t be solved in Triple-A. Lewis currently has a flawed approach and is getting overpowered by major-league fastballs. It’s also an issue he had during his rehab assignment in St. Paul where he posted a 1.099 OPS. It’s exactly what you’d expect to see from a player who has missed so much time recently, but it’s also one that may be better solved against less dominant pitching. Lewis was promoted out of necessity. Jose Miranda had fallen apart and the Twins lineup was in need of any spark it could get. Despite the impact Lewis has had on a handful of games, the goal should be to get him to that level more consistently, as he hasn’t been the consistent contributor the Twins had hoped for as a whole. Miranda’s difficult stretch to begin 2023 also doesn’t eliminate the possibility of him returning to form as a plus hitter in an MLB offense. In a straight-up swap, the Twins can get Miranda, who was once expected to be a major contributor another opportunity while setting Lewis up for success in the long term rather than risking him falling too far into bad habits as he tries to keep his head above water in the majors. Should the Twins consider it? View full article

Bailey Ober has been a boon in the Twins rotation since beginning the season in Triple-A. As his innings count climbs, it’s time to start watching closely to see if the Twins limit him or if his workload catches up. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Bailey Ober has never topped the 108 1/3 innings he threw in 2021 throughout his six professional seasons. His 2021 total looked like he had finally built up a foundation to build on in future years, but then injuries hit again in 2022. Having already surpassed last season's innings total in 2023, what may the future hold for Bailey Ober? Ober was a point of discussion in spring training due to the assumption that he was slated to begin the season in St. Paul. He had more than proven that he was a viable MLB starting pitcher, but his time missed across his career forced the Twins to overload on pitching to insure themselves, and Ober was the odd man out having the ability to be optioned. It turned out not to be a major issue, as Ober made only four starts before getting the call and has little to no chance of being sent back down again. The innings count is becoming an interesting storyline. To reach even 130 innings, Ober would need to more than double the number of innings he threw in 2022. With such a drastic increase in workload comes the risk of injury and fatigue, even without considering his already colorful injury history. In such a scenario, some teams would aggressively pull back on innings counts, especially for a pitcher who has barely topped 100 innings in any professional season. It’s difficult to envision the Twins being too aggressive with this as the season goes on, as for 27-year-old Bailey Ober, it’s getting to be time to stop setting him up for the future. They may just see what he can do if he can stay on the field. That being said, there are a few things the Twins will likely do to combat the rising innings count. It sounds like Saturday Brent Headrick may get the call for a spot start against Detroit to push the rotation back a day. While Simeon Woods Richardson has floundered in St. Paul, Headrick has established himself as a legitimate rotation option despite not being a high-pedigree prospect. The Twins have also promoted the resurgent Blayne Enlow to Triple-A, and a few good starts will likely also get him on the shortlist if the Twins need a spot start. With options emerging, the Twins will likely continue to mix these arms in to afford extra rest for the starters they’ll be leaning on down the stretch. The Twins also have an opportunity to set themselves up to coast to the finish line. While the concept sounds ridiculous given how utterly the team has failed to separate themselves from a terrible AL Central, they haven’t missed their only chance. They have the weakest remaining strength of schedule in baseball, and due to the sub .500 records of all of their division rivals, it may only take a slight push for Cleveland and Chicago to go into a fire sale at the deadline. If they can create some padding, names like Headrick may wind up doing more than just pushing the rotation back a day. If the Twins want to limit Ober’s innings to an extent and they have a sizeable lead, they could place him on the IL to skip a few starts and reset the workload a bit while capable young arms get their opportunity. With how far the Twins have pushed the rotation and started doing things like using Duran for multiple innings, this would be the best-case scenario. The hope is that Ober can hold up in the meantime and is still an effective pitcher come August and September. The 6’9 right-hander has performed close to a front-end starting pitcher for the last two seasons, and while the idea of letting him continue to roll is enticing, it would be ideal to limit him as much as possible down the stretch. Are you concerned about Bailey Ober’s workload? View full article

It’s been a disappointing season for Jorge Polanco whose injury history may finally be catching up to him. With his future in question, the keys to second base will be turned over to Edouard Julien. Is he up to the task? Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco has dealt with a fair amount of lower body injuries in his career. After knee issues ended his 2022 season, Polanco got off to a late start to 2023 before hamstring issues sidelined him. With the same issue landing him on the IL again, this recent injury is likely to keep him down for a solid stretch. While disappointing for Polanco and the Twins, Edouard Julien is the recipient of a massive opportunity to show why the Twins are such big fans. Julien has been an on-base machine throughout his minor league career. Though he did have his fair share of whiffs, he had been able to limit the punch outs to under 25% of his plate appearances in his last two minor league seasons while approaching a near 20% walk rate. As could be expected, neither has translated directly to his MLB debut, with a walk rate of around 11% and a bloated 34.6% K rate. It’s fair to say Julien hasn’t quite hit his stride yet, especially when it comes to controlling the strike zone. That becomes a scary thought considering the rookie is already slashing .260/.353/.493, good for 35% above league average. For a hitter with such an advanced plate approach, one may expect him to adjust quickly, and that’s exactly what Julien has done. While continuing to flash his power at the plate, the former 18th-round pick from Auburn via Quebec has continued to improve month over month in his sporadic MLB debut season. In addition to the increase in walk rate, Julien reduced his whiff % from 44.2 to 38.7 from April to May, and has only swung and missed about 15% of the time in his two games since being recalled. They’re all small samples, but signs of adjustment nonetheless. Aside from plate discipline, Julien has some other questions to answer while Polanco is away. For starters, Julien has yet to prove much against left-handed pitching. It may be a lack of opportunity, as the Twins have only allowed him to take seven plate appearances against southpaws and will likely continue to platoon him to some degree. He’ll still likely get the occasional lefty-on-lefty matchup, and if he can capitalize on a few opportunities, it’s possible he opens the Twins’ eyes to him being a capable everyday player. For as well as Julien is expected to hit right-handed pitchers, even holding his own against lefties would take his already can’t-miss bat to an entirely different level. The biggest question, of course, is the defense. For how athletic Edouard Julien clearly is, reports have had him stretched as a second baseman, and early results in the MLB have so far matched up. In just 140 innings at second base, Julien has been worth -3 Defensive Runs Saved. Outs Above Average grades him at -3 as well in his limited time in the field. His defensive struggles have been apparent on the most superficial levels, as despite just one official error, he’s had a handful of awkward-looking plays. Julien is presented with an opportunity. Jorge Polanco’s contract for 2024 has already vested for $10.5m, but the Twins have a $1m buyout. Make no mistake, that’s an absolute bargain for a player at Polanco’s skill level. That being said, the injuries could be on the verge of spinning out of control. Julien could put some thoughts in the front offices’ heads about his future on the club beyond 2023 if the bat continues to play, and the defense is even passable. Polanco seems like a near-impossible hole to fill, but in the business of baseball, young, effective, cost-controlled players can push front offices into some difficult decisions. In the near term, the Twins are missing one of the more underrated pieces of their lineup as they have been for much of the season. The hope is that Julien proves to be the leadoff hitter this lineup has missed all year, and that when and if Polanco is ready to return, Julien has done enough to make it more than just a procedural move to send him back to St. Paul. We’ve heard about Edouard Julien for some time, and he finally has an extended opportunity to show what he can do. Can he be part of the solution in what has been a frustrating Twins lineup, or will we be counting down the days until Jorge Polanco’s return? View full article

I do think they'd have a few more losses without him if they had to continue turning to guys like Pagan, Lopez and Jax in leverage spots when they were struggling. Small in the grand scheme of things but I think the season would look a bit different so far without Brock Stewart