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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Buxton = no trade clause. Don't like him, fine, but suggesting they trade him is monotonously unrealistic.
  2. arby58
    You are right - they did get Bartlett for Buchanan. Funny how these things got intertwined.
  3. arby58
    That would have been a bit more balanced, given his career WAR of 16.8 (ceteris paribus, of course).
  4. arby58
    That's not my recollection on the Knoblauch trade. Baseball Almanac says 'Traded by Minnesota Twins to New York Yankees in exchange for Brian Buchanan, Cristian Guzman, Eric Milton, Danny Mota and cash (February 6, 1998).'
  5. arby58
    Thanks for the research on that - knew the trade was bad, just didn't know how bad. Another interesting trade (although far longer ago) was the Twins sending Chuck Knoblauch to the Yankees for Brian Buchanan, Christian Guzman, Eric Milton, and Danny Mota. I assume, based on Guzman's and Milton's performance, that one turned out pretty well.
  6. arby58
    There is revenue sharing in baseball. 48 percent of team revenue is pooled and split evenly among teams. There is also a competitive balance tax, and if teams go over the threshold (which is $237 million in 2024) there is a tax of between 20-50 percent of the overage. Note also that deferred compensation still counts in that calculation.
  7. arby58
    Agree - Kepler fills more of a need, and his trade value is likely lessened because of only one year of control. The infield is where they should focus the trade attention, and Polanco's two years of team-friendly control is the logical starting point. Of course, if you want a lot, teams are going to ask about Lee or Julien rather than Polanco.
  8. arby58
    Ryan gave up the seventh most home runs of any pitcher in MLB in 2023. I understand starting pitchers will dominate that stat, but I highly doubt he was close to league average.
  9. arby58
    Through the end of June, Ryan had a 3.44 ERA. while Gray's was 2.67. Ryan's was better than Lopez' 4.24, but not really in Gray's stratosphere. The real problem, which I alluded to, was keeping the ball in the ballpark. Through the end of June, he'd given up 13 HRs. Gray 3.
  10. arby58
    The point that Ober went from 70 to 170 innings pitched is well taken. I won't trust Ryan as a number two starter until he gets another quality pitch so he can drop his fast ball usage to something under 50 percent - preferably increased command of the sweeper. That will keep more of his pitches from landing in the left and right field seats.
  11. arby58
    You're 10/10 on the 2023 postseason Sonny Gray who gave up 5 runs (4 earned), 8 hits (2 of which left the yard), in 4 innings pitched against Houston? THAT Sonny Gray?
  12. arby58
    He's out of options - if there is really a team out there that wants him (I highly doubt it), they'll wait for waivers.
  13. arby58
    Except Martin is three years younger and can be expected to improve. He's had three years in the minors - Gordon has had SEVEN. Also, if you total Gordon's various years OPS at AAA, it is less than Martin's last year. I just don't get why you want to ride this dog. If Martin isn't the answer, there is somebody out there better they can pick up who is better than Gordon.
  14. arby58
    Every year is something, and last year for Gordon was horrible. Yes, he had that 114+ OPS in 2022, but the problem with Gordon is he never was that great in the minor leagues either (the difference between he and Miranda). His best OPS in the minors was .801, and the rest were middle .700s and .600s. No power, bad strikeout to walks ratio. It makes 2022 look more like a fluke than a likely recurrence. There's a reason he's 27 and out of options.
  15. arby58
    OK, IF that happens I will go along with your suggestion (except they will likely need at least 7 SPs for the season, so I'm talking myself out of it).
  16. arby58
    Gordon has a 1.4 WAR over almost 700 at bats, he strikes out more than 5 times as many as he walks, he has little power and not a great throwing arm for the outfield. He also had a negative WAR last year - he is the epitome of a marginal MLB player. I don't 'get' why the Twins, if they have a need in centerfield (which is not a natural position for him anyway) can't find the equivalent at about the same salary. This is not one of those 'in case of emergency break glass' situations.
  17. arby58
    If that's the case, who is the number 5 starter? So far, I'm not excited about getting the Twins successfully through 5 or 6 innings every fifth day. When you already have 3 decent high leverage right handers in the BP, it feels like the starting rotation is a bigger need.
  18. arby58
    Wallner is perfectly capable of playing LF (or Larnach, if he can hit enough). I see them trading Polanco (who has more trade value and is less necessary at 2B) and keeping Kepler (who still plays decent RF and was arguably their best hitter second half of last year). If they're going to invest $, my guess is it is a trade for a SP with a pretty big salary for 2024.
  19. arby58
    The discussion isn't about 'a weapon out of the pen' but an innings eater in low/medium leverage situations. Unless you think Duran/Jax/Stewart isn't enough for right-handed leverage situations, then, IMHO you're not getting enough out of Varland in the Pagan role.
  20. arby58
    He's young enough and his stuff too good to relegate to that role. He should start or be a high leverage relief pitcher. The fact that the Twins may have enough of the high leverage arms already suggests he stays in the rotation.
  21. arby58
    If he's 27 years old and can't make the 26 man roster, the fact he is out of options strikes me as not particularly relevant. I'd expect most 27 year old marginal players to be out of options. If you lose something of little particular value 'for nothing' there isn't really a loss, in the material sense of the word.
  22. arby58
    I have him over Gordon as well - and don't understand the belief that he and Castro both need to be utility role players on the 2024 roster. There are plenty of things that are off-putting about Gordon - lack of power, not a strong outfield throwing arm, very few walks, quite a few strikeouts. Even in his 'breakout' 2022 season, his OPS was petty close to league average at .743. Granted, his OPS+ was 111, but then let's talk about last year, which was a disaster, even before he got hurt. Sure, he offers positional flexibility, but he's 27, so the Twins pretty much know what he is. With a 1.4 WAR in nearly 700 at bats, that's not a lot.
  23. arby58
    They had Taylor and didn't need him in centerfield last year. It wasn't that long ago (2021) that Kepler played 164 innings in centerfield. I don't think he has lost that much mobility to make him 'terribly terribly not according to plan' to be in centerfield if needed.
  24. arby58
    The Twins have greater needs than second base, where Julien and Lee are on the rise. Polanco's two years of team control make him a valuable trade chip. It's not (only) about payroll, but when you have cheap replacements with at least a reasonable chance of performing as well or better (remember the Polanco injury issues), it makes sense to trade him. Of course, they will not give him away, but if he is the centerpiece of a trade for a decent starting pitcher, it works for me.
  25. arby58
    I see it differently. Turning the rule 5 draft into a sort of lottery where everybody can 'win big' doesn't seem to right any injustices to me. Meanwhile, the team that originally drafted or signed the player, developed him for several years, now must make an earlier judgement on their ultimate ability. I'm not seeing the point of that, from the perspective of improving the overall product. IF the Twins had not protected Rodriguez last year and he was lost and went on to become a huge star, how would Twins fans react to that? I think it good for players to come up through a system, and, as a fan, I get more enjoyment out of that than a game of minor league musical chairs.
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