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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Martin did better at St. Paul second half of the year, but a AAA OPS under .800 doesn't scream ready for MLB. I wouldn't bet on him as the immediate answer - probably needs more time in St. Paul. Castro has looked decent in CF, although he significantly over-achieved his career averages last year. That could just be the fact that he's relatively young. I suppose between the three of them (including Buxton), you'd hope at least one pans out.
  2. arby58
    You're going to look for upside potential. Neither Lopez or Gray was an All-Star when they traded for them - although both were solid starting pitchers. Twins gave up a pitcher drafted in the high first round who threw 100 mph for Gray, which isn't chopped liver, but it isn't an All-Star position player either.IF you think Brooks Lee is ready and/or Polanco can play most days (and both are switch hitters), I'd bet Julien, who is sort of a young Arraez, could bring you back a (possible future All Star) pitcher with upside.
  3. arby58
    It costs a lot more to buy a free agent than to trade for one. Everybody here ignores the dollar side of the equation (related to a free agent), but it is real, and it limits what else the Twins can do. The Twins have been excellent at the trade approach to starting pitching, why change now?
  4. arby58
    I (barely) remember the days with Halsey Hall as the color commentator and Ray Scott doing play-by-play (and, of course, the Hamm's bear) on WTCN television.
  5. arby58
    Joe Ryan isn't a big problem, granted, but the question is whether you can rely on him in a really big game. Maybe the groin injury is the story of his second half of 2023, but it is telling that he has been trying to expand his pitch repertoire: the author is right, a starting pitcher throws a lot of pitches, so batters have a better opportunity to adjust, even if that one pitch is stellar. The key for Ryan is making one of those other pitches a plus pitch. If he can, maybe he could be more than a #3-ish starter. If not, it's highly doubtful.
  6. arby58
    Right - the Twins starters were near the top of MLB in average innings pitched per start in 2023. It's not that hard to look this stuff up.
  7. arby58
    I would rate that highly unlikely. They both performed better than their salaries last year. Polanco is under team control at a very reasonable salary for two years, and Kepler also plays good defense. If nothing else, they both should be tradeable for something, rather than just letting them go somewhere else for nothing.
  8. arby58
    Sonny Gray had a great year, but he is a reason they are now sitting at home - it was a 1-1 series after the big Lopez win, back at home, and he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings.
  9. arby58
    Festa is not established, why would a team trade an established MLB starting pitcher with multiple years of control for him? Besides, a team trading starting pitching is generally not looking for it back, they would have other needs. Maybe they need an outfielder, and Kepler/Wallner, Larnach makes it happen (although I wouldn't give up both Wallner and Fiesta unless it was a really solid starting pitcher).
  10. arby58
    For me, it also explains why analytics are useful. I guess it's one of those glass half full/half empty, and your mileage may vary discussions.
  11. arby58
    Castro had a nice year, 2.6 WAR and an exciting, impactful player. That said, he's had 1,365 at bats and produced a career WAR of 3.0. If I'm the Mariners (or any other team), I have to wonder if 2023 was an aberration. Otherwise, why not trot out Nick Gordon? He had a great second half of 2021 ala Castro. If I'm the Mariners, and I'm giving up a front line starting pitcher, the ask is Julien, not Castro.
  12. arby58
    I get that Farmer might be of interest to a team without a viable shortstop, but otherwise he's just a serviceable utility player - nothing wrong with that, but it's not going to bring you much more than that in return. Larnach will be 27 before the start of spring training and is starting to look like a player with a great future behind him. Polanco has injury concerns. I don't see a significant return for any of them, but Polanco should bring you at least a decent prospect, and he does have two years of control. I'd say Kepler would be more viable as a trade chip, as he is durable and a decent defensive outfielder - but he only has one year of team control. I doubt any of them yields a big return. I'd bet you could get something tangible for Julien - pretty impressive rookie year. He may be a variation on the Arraez theme, as he's not great defensively, not great speed for a lead-off hitter, but he gets on base and has a little more pop to make up for more strike-outs and less average. If you could get a front line starter for him, sure - IF you believe Lee is ready and/or Polanco will be reasonably healthy.
  13. arby58
    Here are the home runs by team/games played. There is a clear trend here: Phillies 24/13 = 1.84 per game Rangers 22/12 = 1.83 per game Astros 20/11 = 1.81 per game Diamondbacks 18/12 = 1.5 per game Twins 7/6 = 1.16 per game Orioles 3/3 = 1.00 per game Braves 3/4 = 0.75 per game Brewers 1/2 = 0.50 per game Dodgers 1/3 = 0.33 per game Blue Jays 0/2 = 0.00 per game Marlins 0/2 = 0.00 per game Rays = 0/2 = 0.00 per game
  14. arby58
    Reminds me of what was arguably the greatest World Series ever - 1991 Twins versus Braves. Both those teams were last place teams the year before, with the Twins going 74-88 and the Braves 65-97. In 1991, the Twins went 95-67 (an improvement of 21 wins) and the Braves went 94-68 (an improvement of 29 wins).
  15. arby58
    After the All Star break, Twins runs scored in games (not counting post season): 0 - 5 1 - 3 2 - 6 3 - 8 4 - 5 5 - 13 6 - 4 7 - 9 8 - 4 9 - 4 10 - 5 11 - 1 12 - 2 13 - 1 14 - 1 20 - 1 (the silly game where Cleveland offered up batting pitching the last few innings) Five or over gives you a great chance to win, as the median team runs scored per team in MLB this year was 4.55. In the second half, the Twins scored 5 or over 47 times and 4 or less 27 times. Doesn't sound that awful to me.
  16. arby58
    A helpful look forward. The next step would be to do some 'guesstimating' at how the salaries for the young core, if they perform reasonably well, escalates. The good news for the Twins is that both Kepler and Polanco will fall off the books in 1 and 2 years respectively (if the Twins pick up the option on Polanco for 2025), so that provides useful money as well. The other good news is there is another wave of emerging 'nearly ready for prime time' players ala Lee, Martin, Severino that will continue to provide salary value in coming years. The pitching side is less clear, but the hitting/fielding side looks pretty strong.
  17. arby58
    The 'we didn't hit well enough in the regular season' narrative is, IMHO, overblown. The Twins were 10th of 30 teams in runs scored in the regular season - and that is the only offensive stat that matters. One of the teams still alive, Arizona, scored fewer runs, as did two other play-off teams. They had their chances against Houston, and when your starting pitcher, team MVP Sonny Gray, gives up 5 runs in 4 innings when the series was tied 1-1, I'm having a hard time suggesting it was all on the hitters.
  18. arby58
    Joe Nathan started closing at age 29. Between ages 29 and 39, he had 44, 43, 36, 37, 39, 47, 14 (injured), 37, 43, and 35 saves. I guess he 'was not even close' when he turned 40.
  19. arby58
    Short of Kirk Gibson, there aren't many 'one hit' stars of post-season baseball. The author isn't asking for a team full of Altuve's - he was mostly asking for just one more. Seems like a reasonable ask.
  20. arby58
    I don't think this contract would be enough money to induce Duran to sign a long-term deal. You're probably needing to get closer to the recent arbitration awards for Hader, otherwise you aren't looking at it from a current dollars perspective.
  21. arby58
    thanks for the correction, you are, of course correct. Koufax was incredible.
  22. arby58
    It's difficult to think they would get either of these, let alone both, for him, unless they assume most of his salary.
  23. arby58
    In 2022, Rosario's OPS was .587. This year he 'improved' to .755. If this is what you aspire, it isn't much.
  24. arby58
    Kepler, Pagan, Maeda, and Paddack are non-examples of the sunk cost fallacy.
  25. arby58
    Martin still has plenty to prove, in the 'can hit MLB pitching' category. He had a .791 OPS at St. Paul in 2023.
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