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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Dismissing the latest starts for a pitcher when they don't match your take on that pitcher is the epitome statistical rationalization. Meanwhile, you really should write to Baseball-Reference.com and tell them the headline stats they quote for pitchers are all wrong.
  2. arby58
    You've got to get there before you worry about the play-offs. The Twins are still in a fight for the play-offs. This isn't the time for experimentation.
  3. arby58
    I don't think he has been appointed the ace, although his 89 pitch complete game was pretty impressive. I still think Lopez is the guy you send out there for game one of a play-off series, and his recent results suggest he has 'figured it out' compared to earlier in the year. Ober as a legitimate number two sounds right. Last year, I think the 'lost confidence' was an innings fatigue thing. Now he's stretched out.
  4. arby58
    Isn't that a bit of rationalization? If mine is optimism fill in the blank on what yours is - 'a couple rough starts in a row' is not relevant? And what about the WAR? Ober's 1.8 to 1.1 is certainly relevant.
  5. arby58
    I've been high on Ober for a long time and have often made the case that Ober's stats aligned pretty well with Gray's last year (other than ERA, where his was still quite good). Turns out that is the case this year as well: Ober 1.8 WAR (Gray 1.1), 10-5 (Gray 10-6) 3.76 ERA (Gray 3.79), 115 Ks (Gray 111), WHIP 1.009 (Gray 1.101). Yep, the Twins found their replacement for Sonny. Now if SWR is the replacement for last year's Ober, they'll be fine.
  6. arby58
    They won a play-off series last year, and they were quite competitive with Houston, which most last year considered 'top tier.' That said, what about this team screams 'this year' rather than,, say, next year? They'll have the whole starting pitching staff back next year, and there is reason to believe they will get better. Same with their young core. I'm certainly not thinking they should trade away top prospects for a rental, (even a good one) to 'go for it all' this year. I'm sure the requests for top flight rental starting pitchers begin with an ask for some combination of an Emmanuel Rodriguez or Luke Keaschall (assuming 'everybody knows' Jenkins and Lee are untouchable) and another Raya or Soto (or both).
  7. arby58
    The X post indicates that the Twins are 16th in baseball in terms of percentage of revenue devoted to payroll - and just a fraction from 15th. That suggests 'mid-market' to me, and the various statistical gyrations to suggest they aren't meeting payroll expectations aren't all that impressive. Media market size, for example doesn't really matter other than what you can get in payment from media for broadcasting the team, and we've seen that $ eroding, not growing. As that graph suggests, payroll doesn't necessarily translate into great results - witness the two teams at the top of the payroll as a percentage of revenue. Last year, the top three teams in terms of payroll all missed the play-offs. There are lots of other areas of investment that are also important, including the farm system. The Twins have pretty consistently ranked in the upper half (or better) for farm systems. They are turning out some pretty good young talent, and it appears more is on the way. Sure, a 'big splash' would be great (wait, wasn't that Correa?), but making the play-offs on a pretty consistent basis is a decent product, which is what the mid-market Twins have done of late.
  8. arby58
    It's about pitch and spin recognition. When you've been facing right handed pitchers from the opposite batters box for your whole life, it is not so easy to adjust. I remember when Aaron Hicks briefly stopped switch hitting - turned out even as bad as he was a switch hitter, he was worse batting only from one side of the plate.
  9. arby58
    He pitched against the Yankees in the play-offs before - went 2 innings and gave up 4 runs, for a post-season ERA of 18.00.
  10. arby58
    The contract isn't as onerous as some make it out to be. It's $2.25 million this year (pro-rated, that would be about $800,000 for the balance of this year) , $3 million next, and there is a team buy-out for $1 million (or an option for $6 million) in 2026. $3 million for a #5 starting pitcher is a bargain, if a team believes he has that capability.
  11. arby58
    Correa has 18. Lewis has 4 in 6 post-season games. I doubt Arozarena in his current form can be counted on for post-season HRs.
  12. arby58
    The Twins are 3rd in the AL in runs scored - they don't need (or probably want) Arozarena. Listing these types is little more than FOMO.
  13. arby58
    The recent versions of Lopez, Ryan, and Ober have been pretty good. SWR has a better ERA than any of the three and just threw a very competitive outing against the Phillies. Yeah, he only has 88 IP this year, but the Yankees best starting pitcher ERA is Luis Gil, and he has only thrown 107 IP.
  14. arby58
    Even without three 'big bats' the Twins put up 12 runs in winning the three game series with the Phillies. Yes, they got shut out once (by one of the better starting pitchers in baseball), but that's not too bad considering the Phillies have the second best ERA in MLB. The team is getting good offensive contributions up and down the lineup.
  15. arby58
    His ERA iis pretty good, so it suggests that if you let him start an inning clean he does pretty well. He's definitely earned his way into regular use.
  16. arby58
    His uptick in velocity is certainly part of the improvement. Much as we all like to find fault in the Twins player development from time to time, their ability to add MPH in pitcher development is impressive.
  17. arby58
    It does demonstrate the need for depth. Last year, the Yankees weren't even close to sniffing the play-offs, almost completely because of injuries. I know you said 'most of this crew' but still want to chime in that the 'big two' (Buxton, Correa) that the Twins hoped would recover mostly have. We do have to hope that Correa recovers from his current bout of plantar fasciitis, of course.
  18. arby58
    SWR continues to perform - and against good opposition. His outing last night against the Phillies was rock solid. That's a great hitting ballclub. He handled Schwarber, Turner, and Harper to the tune of 1 for 8, three times through the lineup. The OPS for those three are .795, .911, and .960 respectively.
  19. arby58
    Injuries have been the story here. They have derailed many a promising MLB career. My guess is the Twins ride with him a bit longer and see if he can overcome the injury bug.
  20. arby58
    Not much. SWR is looking worthy of the trade right now.
  21. arby58
    SWR 4 innings, no runs, 1 hit against this potent offense. His pitch count is basically the same as Wheeler's. His ERA is now down to 3.35. Starting to look like the real deal.
  22. arby58
    He's also a veteran who knows his way around a hit (or in his case lots of walks). Festa may eventually get there, but once a runner or two was on base, you could pretty well bank on them scoring - he hasn't yet 'figured it out' at the MLB level. Meanwhile, Varland is still having trouble getting batters out at the AAA level. He has a 3-7 record, 5.91 ERA, and a 1.562 WHIP. Not much better than in MLB this year. Yuck.
  23. arby58
    Combined, Varland and Festa have a 1-5 record, an ERA of 7.75, and a WHIP of 1.67. In a combined 36 innings pitched, they've given up 10 home runs and 11 walks with 33 strikeouts. So, no, they aren't likely to piece together anything remotely effective over 10 starts. Matthews started the year a high-A, then 9 starts at AA and was just promoted and made 1 5-inning start at AAA. If this is all the Twins have got, they're going to have to work hard to make the play-offs.
  24. arby58
    I think 'steal' is a bit too optimistic - many analysts noted his upside but also the injury downside risk. So, he was a high risk/reward draft pick.
  25. arby58
    Sounds like fantasy baseball. Santana is an excellent defensive first baseman and contributes on offense as well. Neither Miranda or Lewis is a first baseman of any skill.
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