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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Even less than that - 55 games.
  2. arby58
    I get it, they scored 4 runs in the 9th inning, but that was about as collective soft contact as you'll see for a team scoring 4 runs in an inning.
  3. arby58
    I think the Polanco comparison is more apt than Arraez, because Lee has not put up high batting averages in the minor leagues. Granted, he's been younger than the league at AA and AAA, but his type of hitting (with more power ala Polanco) doesn't really align with Arraez. Plus he's a switch hitter like Polanco.
  4. arby58
    You really think they are going to send Duran down to AAA? What color is the sky in your world?
  5. arby58
    This seems a bit of an overreaction.
  6. arby58
    Ultimately, Duran throws the pitch - I simply do not believe that the Twins will tell their best relief pitcher that he needs to throw the pitch the pitching coach/catcher call 'or else.' Or else what? I still think this is on Duran. Baldelli criticism to me seems hindsight driven. He makes a lot of moves, so when they don't work out, it is subject to criticism. I suspect he doesn't get enough credit for times when those moves work out.
  7. arby58
    It was the first thing that I wondered about after the Guardians series. He's a power pitcher, and if he has lost some mph on his pitches, that is reason to be concerned. He did so well coming off the injury - maybe there are some lingering issues?
  8. arby58
    Baldelli has always seeemed like a bit of a 'rah rah' guy to me. Perhaps because he was a player himself, he has seemed to go out of his way to praise the players and stay away from direct criticism. Those comments seemed out of character. Duran as well, but not quite as much.
  9. arby58
    I've done statistics for a living, so this stuff doesn't really surprise me as presented. In my world, we create ARIMA (auto-regression integrated moving average) models to forecast future outcomes, where a time series is regressed on its own past values, it is then made stationary (such as removing seasonality) and then regressed on past forecast errors. The first thing we learn about these is the need to use human intervention, because lots of stuff outside of statistical models needs to be taken into consideration. In the world you rely upon, you are aggregating outcomes - fine, but it loses the individual impact in specific games. Lots of baseball people refer to that as 'clutch hitting.' It's like when Royce Lewis comes up with the bases loaded and does you know what. Of course, it happens that he does that in lots of instances, but maybe the Carlos Santanas of the world should be recognized when they 'go off' for three or four games in a row and have a pretty direct positive impact on the outcome of games. I'd much rather have Santana winning a game they probably otherwise don't win with a 3-run homer than a guy who stuffs stats with a bunch of singles that don't really produce much of anything.
  10. arby58
    Rocco: "Carlos has been excellent. He's been a big part of our offense really coming alive," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. "He's hitting balls hard. He's feeling good. He's shooting line drives all over." Which loss would you put on him - he definitely won yesterday's game.
  11. arby58
    Any assessment will be 'a bit premature.' Kepler was lousy last year the full first half and then was great. Who knew? That said, early in the season, people were ready to sell Santana for a bag of used batting practice balls, and he now is second on the team in HRs and RBIs. That is worth pointing out, no?
  12. arby58
    Rocco on Santana. https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/rocco-baldelli-on-the-series-win-over-the-blue-jays
  13. arby58
    Miranda didn't even start the year with the Twins. You're doing the 'hindsight 20-20' thing. Meanwhile, back in reality, Santana is a far better first baseman than Miranda will ever be - that's why the Twins are playing him at 3B. Santana won the game for the Twins today. He has pretty much won a couple others as well.
  14. arby58
    Second on the team in HRs, second in RBIs. Those are for the year, not a few games. As for Miranda, were you crystal balling it before the start of the year and suggesting they make him a full starter? Not many were - easy now, in hindsight. He also can't play the defense that Santana plays at 1B.
  15. arby58
    Fair enough, Doc, and you're right, he isn't going to lead the team in any offensive category. That said, today's game had the feel of one where the Twins were going to waste a great Ober start - and then it was 3-0. He won the game for the Twins today (give Ober an assist).
  16. arby58
    I liked the Santana signing, if nothing else because he was, for years, a Twins killer. At least he wouldn't be on another team doing that, right? I'm always amazed at the fan/critics who take the first 10, 20, 30 games and project that on a player for the entirety of a 162 game season. Santana has had a couple of important home run streaks for the Twins - where they were the impetus to winning several games. He now is tied for second on the team in home runs and is second in RBIs. So, those who laughed at my support for the signing - who is laughing now?
  17. arby58
    I don't disagree about Lewis' need to be out there all the time, but if you agree Miranda has earned playing time, where will it come? Santana is also slotted in against left-handed pitching at first and is a better defensive first baseman. The Twins are needing to keep Jeffers bat in the lineup, so he's taking the DH at bats. The only logical move that I see is Lewis moving to second against left handed hitters and putting Miranda at third - unless we think Miranda can play second base in those situations. He did play second base a fair amount in the minors.
  18. arby58
    With Miranda contributing and looking pretty solid, it gets you thinking: what do they do when Royce Lewis is ready to come back? They're both right handed hitters who seem best at 3B. Given that Jeffers is spending a lot of time at DH, it limits those options. It doesn't look like Santana is going anywhere, so 1B isn't really an option. Dare I say that maybe Lewis shifts over to 2B against left handed pitchers? I hate myself for even saying it, but . . .
  19. arby58
    They're finding ways to win. Santana hits a home run, Ryan goes seven, Correa gets two hits and scores two runs, and Kepler delivers a huge pinch hit. Nice to win without a contribution from Jeffers. That said, the bottom of the order when they go with the right-handed hitters was pretty anemic.
  20. arby58
    Baseball's salary structure is unique - they get absolutely 'killing it' value from Julien, Ober, Lewis (when healthy), SWR, etc., because of the early years pay scale. Thus, $10 million worth of value is different for veteran players when you are getting probably $10 million worth of value from a couple of those guys.
  21. arby58
    It probably also helps Jeffers offense that he doesn't have to spend so much time behind the plate. Catching is grueling work, and your hands (which are pretty important for hitting) take a beating. That Joe Mauer was able to catch for a decade and put up the offensive numbers he did is not normal for a catcher.
  22. arby58
    Duran was a 20-year old starting pitcher in A-ball when the Twins acquired him, and Alcala was in A+ ball - to me, that is home grown, as it is a long way from A ball to the majors. SWR was a 20-year old pitcher in AA ball, but he had not had much success there when the Twins acquired him, and it's only three years later that he is having some success at the MLB level - pretty close to home grown as well. Really, though, it doesn't matter - it is identifying players that can make it as pitchers in the major leagues, whether through trades or development. Stewart is another example of finding a needle in a haystack. It's sort of how Tampa Bay does things - see Zack Littell this year (there's a blast from the Twins past).
  23. arby58
    A person who has to repeat their own argument isn't going to win many debates. My complaint with your perspective is it puts far too much emphasis on rank order of teams and not on outcomes. The Tigers have scored 149 runs in 37 games and the Mariners 138 in 37 games. That equates to 4.0 and 3.7 runs per game - hardly anemia compared to the 0 and 1 runs they scored in their outings against Richardson. Feel free to repeat yourself again if it will make you feel better.
  24. arby58
    In 3 games against the Twins, Seattle has scored 14 runs (4.7 runs a game) - Richardson was charged with none of them. In 7 games against the Twins, Detroit has scored 32 runs (also 4.7 runs a game), and Richardson was charged with 1 of them. You can play with cumulative statistics all you want, but those teams have had plenty of offense against the Twins - except practically none with Richardson is pitching.
  25. arby58
    Both Detroit and Seattle have winning records, and both have scored plenty of runs in games with the Twins, so I'm not entirely buying this point (granted, Chicago is a different story). BTW, in two starts in St. Paul, Varland has pitched pretty well - 12 IP, 1 earned run, 13 Ks, 1 walk, 0.67 WHIP. There is certainly hope that he will be back and a competitive starter for the Twins.
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