arby58

He certainly could end up at 1B, as plenty of 3Bers have done in the past (paging Harmon Killebrew and Miguel Sano). He's tall enough to have a pretty good reach, you'd prefer he was left handed, but nobody's perfect. I'm still not completely sold on Lee, and maybe (between he and Keaschal) he is the less athletic and ends up at 2B. The other issue (not this year, but maybe in 2-3 years) is Correa will probably be moved off SS, and there again, 3B is where a lot of shortstops go in their later years.

He was cut and picked up - and cut again - by three teams last year. Sure, somebody will pick him up, but that doesn't mean it's much of a loss when they do. If you really liked him, wait around, you can probably pick him up again.

In 7 MLB seasons, Tonkin has pitched 3 innings 6 times, only one of which was last year. Last year, until their starting pitching went off the rails in early August, through the first 111 games, they had a 'true' relief pitcher pitch 3 innings only once (Matt Bowman went 3 innings in a mop up role on April 15th). There was one case where Okert 'started' and went 1/3 of an inning, then Festa followed with 4 1/3 innings and one case where Paddock went 2 1/3 innings then Varland went 4 1/3, but otherwise just that 1 out of 111 games. You're keeping Tonkin around for that? Besides, it's not as if the Twins don't have relief pitchers who can go more than 1 inning. Through those first 111 games (I stopped counting after that) , Cole Sands did it 10 times, including 2 and 1/3 and 2 and 2/3rds appearances. Funderburk did it 7 times, Alcala 5 times - and, yes, Tonkin once. Even Duran did it. Keep a 'real' arm in the bullpen, not somebody you need to trot out for mop up duty once in a blue moon (even Dobnak did that last year).

Yep - Cubs.

Pretty much in agreement on most - definitely on Tonkin. He was released by three MLB teams last year, he's not an arm you should lose any sleep over losing.

Yeah, besides Rooker, Liam Hendricks is another player who was given ample opportunity (by multiple teams) and then suddenly became a very good relief pitcher.

Not sure where you are getting the BA numbers from - Baseball Reference disagrees. Besides, BA is a poor statistic for overall value. Look at his WAR - barely above zero in his years with the Tigers (there is a reason they released him), and much better with the Twins.

These sort of run the gamut of the types of players an organization can try to 'fix.' Gray was coming off probably his worst season, and his ERA dropped over a full run per game with the Twins - just a coincidence? Ryan was pretty much a one-pitch pitcher who hadn't been able to break out of the minors - that is not the pitcher he is now. Yes, Stewart was/is injury prone, but he was a reclamation project. If the Dodgers could see what he became in 2023, you really think they would have released him? 'Just needed a place to play' for Castro - he got as many or more plate appearances his last two years in Detroit as his first year in Minnesota. I guess they were all just luck.

Willi Castro. Brock Stewart. Sonny Gray. Joe Ryan.

There is no personal trainer that is going to be able to conclusively prevent ankle sprains.

Injuries don't only impact the Twins - they were not even close to the MLB team that lost the most games to injury last year (11th, according to Spotrack, 13th the year before, and 12th the year before that). When we're talking stuff like sprained ankles, I think we should all relax. That said, Emma is the one that is most concerning, given his history.

The pen is the place for him - and I'd much rather have him there than Tonkin. He's had more than ample opportunity to make it as a starter. Let him unleash that curve (and add a bit extra to the fast ball) one inning at a time.

I appreciated your 'he can't hit them' comment - a true first LOL of the day. Taking Rodriguez and Jenkins out of the discussion because we have no way of knowing how the Twins would use them, but one of the differentiators for a player besides offense is defense. None of the remainder of the group you mentioned (Wallner, Julien, Larnach) is a particularly good defensive player, and Julien's defensive runs saved at 2B is well below average. Even when Buxton isn't hitting, you want him in the lineup for his defensive play and disrupting speed on the bases. It's possible either Rodriguez or Jenkins will also provide that differentiation. Also, none of the three were ever a top 10 prospect in all of minor league baseball, ala Jenkins. He might end up being a Kyle Tucker type of player who plays every day regardless of who is pitching. My prediction is that if he is putting up Tucker-like numbers, he'll play everyday.

It's a stretch to suggest that he would put up those OPS+ numbers were he an everyday player. Look at his OPS splits - his first year wasn't too bad - .784/.691 - but his second year it was .918/.469. Other than the shortened 2020 (small sample size) he's never performed better against LHP - and the difference last year was .923/.749. Joc has played for six teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rangers) and can't get any of them to play him regularly against LHP - you think there might be a reason?

Incomplete information is often used because the cost associated with gathering complete (or even more complete) information outweighs its benefit. If, for example, 'the powers that be' assented to your begging and Wallner put up 'Vasquez-like' (or even Gallo-like) numbers for some period of time, would that cost (maybe a lost game or two) outweigh the benefit of more complete information? My guess is lots of posters around here would quickly reach that conclusion.

I'm not feeling their angst. If you are a left handed hitter, the statistics suggest you are going to be in the lineup two-thirds to three-fourths of the time, because that is the difference in righthanded versus lefthanded pitching. To me, this is a solution looking for a problem.

The last three transactions for him have been releases, not trades.

You can't compare Wallner's numbers over a full season until he actually plays one. Using anything other than his actual statistics is conjecture.

Why would anybody trade for Tonkin? Last year, the Twins traded for him (for cash) with the Mets. They then designated him for assignment four days later, and the Mets claimed him. A week later, the Mets designated him for assignment, and the Yankees claimed him. Then in August, the Yankees designated him for assignment and the Twins claimed him. He's about as valuable, trade material-wise, as a bag of batting practice balls.

The thing about trades is it requires two willing parties where needs align. I think those clamoring for the Twins to 'do something' often disregard this fact. On a website devoted to trade rumors that I frequent, fans often discuss 'this for that' trade possibilities with the site's subject matter experts. Far more often than not the 'expert' dismisses it as not realistic for one (or even both) side(s).

Snipping a lot of interesting discussion - thank you for that. I like to focus on numbers, because it is what I best understand. 5% is 'nothing to sneeze at' until we look at what it would mean to 'move the dial' to the average for the Twins as a team against LHP. In 2023, it would have been 20 additional ABs. I highly doubt that Wallner, with 20 additional ABs against LHP that year would have transformed himself into a better hitter against them. That would be the equivalent of about 3 at bats a month. Besides, only a true 'everyday player' gets the same share of at bats against their same sided pitcher, so it's probably more like 10. Obviously, you would slightly more than double that number for an 11 percent difference, but, again, is it really 20 at bats that are killing his development?

You focus entirely on the Kepler example and ignore Wallner getting about as many percentage at bats against left handed pitchers as the Twins as a team the last two years. Regardless of his performance against LHP in the minor leagues, he hasn't delivered against them in MLB. 2023 the split was .970 OPS versus RHP and .481 LHP. 2024 .953 versus .611. The Twins are trying to win baseball games every day, and having a starting corner outfielder with a .481 OPS isn't going to cut it. These guys have opportunities beyond just games - there are pitching machines and batting practice to work on this stuff where your OPS isn't going to hurt the team.

This is an exaggeration. The left handed hitters don't face as many left handed pitchers partially because there aren't as many of them. We'll use Wallner as an example, because you cite his minor league prowess against lefties. In 2023, the Twins faced right-handed pitchers in 4,780 at bats, and lefties in 1,439, which is 23% of the time. Wallner had 208 plate appearances against righthanded pitchers and 46 against left handed pitchers - 18% of his at bats. It was similar in 2024, where the Twins faced right handed pitchers in 4,426 place appearances and 1,697 against lefties, which is 28%. Wallner had 217 plate appearances against right handed pitchers and 44 against lefties - 17%. Sure, it's not exactly the same percentage as Twins plate appearances against left handers, but would that really be a great argument? It's pretty well accepted that most players perform better at the plate against opposite handed pitchers. That said, it's not nothing, and those who complain it is only 40-some appearances are overlooking or choosing not to look at the possible plate appearances he could have had, which isn't that many more. My bet is that if any of the left handed hitters start tearing it up against LHP, they'll see more plate appearances against them. Let's use Max Kepler as an example. In 2022, he actually had a higher OPS against LHP - .677 to .662 versus RHP. Perhaps not suprisingly, he faced lefties in 27% of his plate appearances (quite a bit higher than Wallner has). In 2022, the Twins faced LHP in 28% of their plate appearances. Coincidence? Maybe - or maybe the analytics suggested starting him/keeping him in the lineup against LHP.

I think some of this is a testament to what can happen when a player largely skips over one of the minor league steps - and also a cautionary tale for those who believe you should just 'play the young guys' and stop hiring based at least somewhat on experience. Julien was 1.3 years younger than the average player at AA, and the Twins game him a full season there, with 508 plate attempts. However, he had an excellent spring the following year, and while the Twins started him at AAA, where he was 2.3 years younger than the average player, he only had 170 plate appearances before being called up to the majors. He had an excellent year, and I guess that proves he didn't need that AAA stop, right? Maybe not. For all the issues of changing his swing, that is stuff that might have occurred at AAA - for sure, he would have had the chance to bat against more left-handed pitching. And, sure enough, he did end up getting pretty much a full year (over two years) at AAA last year. Maybe sometimes patience is a good thing and not just 'the Twins being the Twins' with young players.

2023 isn't 'cherry picking' - it was all his appearances in relief that year. I would suggest calling his entire relief pitching record 'homely' based solely on 2024 is cherry picking. Look at in its entirety and it is not. Even in 2024, there were two really bad outings, where he gave up 14 earned runs over 3 1/3 innings. Other than that, it as 5 earned runs over 13 innings, not terrible. He also had 20 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings. Apparently some of his pitches have swing and miss ability.