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Otaknam

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Everything posted by Otaknam

  1. Otaknam
    An Ober trade would be indefensible. Number 1-3 starters are the most difficult players to find and develop. Ober was their most effective starter and one of three mid rotation starters remaining, along with Ryan and Lopez. Festa, Matthews, and even SWR still have a lot to prove. And the minor league depth for starters is unproven. Nyet to an Ober trade!
  2. Otaknam
    Vasquez’ ludicrous contract is an anchor to any trades, unless the Twins pick up part of the contract. So I think they are stuck with him for another season. A more likely scenario is they trade Jeffers for value to save money. I do like the idea of upgrading catcher and don’t know much about either Dodger prospect. But the FO has mixed success on trades, especially for starters.
  3. Otaknam
    The only names I recognize on this list are Rosario and De Andrade. I thought the AFL was for players almost major league ready, and just gave them a chance to fine tune some aspect of their game. But I don’t recognize any of the pitchers, and I pay pretty close attention to the Twins’ minors league system.
  4. Otaknam
    The Twins pitching pipeline has been leaking, with only Bailey Ober emerging as a dependable starter so far. SWR looks like a back of the rotation starter, which is fine if he can give the team innings like he did this year. But you need a couple of frontline starters and solid number 3-4 starters to seriously contend. Hopefully two from Raya, Prielipp, and Morris can emerge as at least mid rotation starters.
  5. Otaknam
    The Dobnak signing was always a head scratcher. He did little to earn that contract, and has done even less since then. He has always been a four inning pitcher, so it’s unrealistic to think he is more than that. Another mistake by the front office.
  6. Otaknam
    Festa and Matthews both got their big league feet wet, with minimal success. But that is a positive step. Now we will see if the Twins off season pitching development program pays dividends. The team really needs these two to improve because the penurious owners won’t be spending on proven starters. Any improvement will come from within.
  7. Otaknam
    it’s not just lack of speed. Their base running was atrocious. And Rocco seldom tries hit and run when they are struggling offensively. They just sit back and hope for the long ball. I doubt they will add aging players who still have some speed, but instead will look to internal minor league options who are close, like Hellman and Kiersey.
  8. Otaknam
    If Larnach or Wallner added first base as a position they could competently play, they would get more at bats. Makes sense to me.
  9. Otaknam
    Hellman, Castro, and Martin fulfill the same role. Doubt there is there room for all three on the roster. That leaves room for just a backup catcher, as well as a DH like Miranda. My guess is that Castro will be released to save money for the penurious Pohlads.
  10. Otaknam
    If the always injured Topa and Stewart are the “wealth of options” to fill a BP void after trading Duran, the team is in deep trouble. The real issue is Twins have Correa, Buxton, and Lopez on big contracts, which means they must try to compete rather than rebuild. If they continue on a fools errand to dump salary, it will come from the fringes unless someone is willing to take on the contract of Correa, Buxton, or Lopez. Lopez is the most trade worthy piece, given his age, success as a mid rotation guy, and contract. But that would destabilize the rotation even more, which at least has Ober and Ryan. Finding a way to trade Vasquez and his unearned $10 million contract would be a start.
  11. Otaknam
    Trade Lopez if you want to confirm that the front office has no idea of what it is doing. Trading the hugely popular Arraez for Lopez, signing Lopez to a huge contract extension, and then trading him a year later, would verify that the team management is incompetent. I like Lopez, but let’s stop saying he is one of the top starters in the league. At best he can be really solid, but he is inconsistent and he’s no ace. As for the idea the Twins have “quietly built one of the most exciting young pitching groups in the majors”. We all need to reserve judgment on that notion. So far, none of these young starters look like a top of the rotation starter, and you need a legitimate number one or a couple of number two starters to have a realistic chance of making a playoff run.
  12. Otaknam
    A ridiculous idea to trade Ober, Ryan, or Lopez to save money. You can’t win without solid starting pitching, and these three are the foundation. For alienated Twins fans, which is now all of us, trading any of the three would be the final blow and lead us to stop supporting the team. As for the starting pitchers in the minors, I don’t see any number one or two starters in that group, based on their records so far. They all look like mid rotation starters at best. So please calm down about starters ready to make the jump to the ML rotation to replace proven starters.
  13. Otaknam
    I am for trading Vasquez, but doubt that some team will pay even half of his $10 million contract for a part time catcher on the downside of his career. A more likely option for Paddock is they try him as a starter and move him to the bullpen if starting doesn’t work. He could be electric in the bullpen, like he was at the end of 2023. As for Castro, I doubt he would bring a decent prospect and bullpen arm in a trade. But I could see them not extending him to save money.
  14. Otaknam
    Glad to see Conner Prielipp on this list. The Twins really need him to progress into a frontline starter. They have a lot of mid rotation starters at both the ML and MiL level, but no real ace, and an ace is a necessity to be a real playoff contender.
  15. Otaknam
    With the team’s best young players infielders (Lee, Julien, Keaschall, Miranda) with Lee looking like he can be an everyday shortstop, it wouldn’t surprise me if they trade Correa to save money. The difficulty is to find a team willing to pick up the contract for a great player who has some injury concerns and is nearing 30. But I don’t think the now penurious Pohlads will force the front office to make the trade.
  16. Otaknam
    Most major league stars are overpaid, that’s called what the market will bear. Just like you and me, we try to get paid as much as our skills and the market allows. But Correa is a great player when healthy, both offensively and defensively.
  17. Otaknam
    I am all for trading Vasquez. His contract was a major mistake, given his poor offensive production. His above average defense and framing does not justify a $10 million per year contract. But who would take a backup catcher at that price? So that means that Jeffers is the more likely trade candidate and would bring more value in a trade. The problem with that is the team is left with Vasquez, an offensive black hole being paid $10 million.
  18. Otaknam
    My guess is they keep Paddock in the rotation for depth and see what happens, if they are willing to pay the salary. They can move him to the bullpen if necessary to try to get some value from the trade, which was another mistake by the front office. Acquiring injured starters is their signature move. The best hope for the team is to have a couple of the young guys to become number three starters and develop similarly to Ober. But I don’t see any top of the rotation guys yet. Maybe Raya if they ever let him pitcher more than four innngs.
  19. Otaknam
    Great write up! Morris and Matthews seem like they have a chance to number three starters. However, no one on this list looks like a future number one or two starter, which the Twins lack. Hopefully off season pitching clinics can help these guys add 2-3 mph to their fastballs. 90 mph fastballs won’t cut it anymore, except for a lefty reliever with a solid 3 pitch mix and excellent breaking pitch or change up. Hopefully the team has some fire balling starters in the lower levels who have a chance to be top of the rotation, a necessity to have World Series aspirations. A bunch of number 3-5 starters can work during the season, but won’t cut it in the playoffs when faced with an actual ace starter.
  20. Otaknam
    It’s an excellent summary of the depth in the system. I am really curious what they will do with Eeles. Aside from his outstanding offensive numbers, I have read that his infield defense is excellent as well. With the infield depth at the ML level, the decisions on Eeles will be interesting to watch.
  21. Otaknam
    The biggest problem is that the major markets, like New York and Boston, and maybe LA, have unlimited revenue streams through their own cable networks. This financial advantage is so great that these teams can actually overpay a player with extended contracts, fully realizing that for the last several years of the contract the player’s skills will be too diminished to help the team. But that doesn’t matter to them as long as they get several years of production. When the player’s skills diminish over the last two or three years of the contract, that is just throw away money that they have little concern about. Ohtani’s contract with the Dodgers is an example: Deferred payments: $680 million of Ohtani's salary is deferred and will be paid out in $68 million installments on July 1 each year from 2034 to 2043 Payroll: Ohtani will be on the Dodgers' payroll for 20 years ! Most teams cannot operate like that. The result is there are a handful of teams with unlimited wealth, while everyone else will be cutting payroll. Maybe it’s time for a MLB salary cap and salary basement, similar to what the NFL has done. Bob Costas proposed a salary structure like this over twenty years ago. It just equalizes the playing field and makes the league more competitive, instead of just a handful of teams able to pay exorbitant salaries, with everyone else left with scraps contract wise. That requires some actual judgment on how to spend on contracts, which is why the NFL teams have salary cap specialists.
  22. Otaknam
    The front office and Rocco are totally welded to analytics, to the detriment of the team. Analytics does have a place, and some of the data is interesting. But removing Ober and Ryan when they are pitching really well, with low pitch counts, makes no sense. How about showing some confidence in your starters and using your manager’s intuition from time to time, though that’s probably sacrilegious in the baseball analytics world.
  23. Otaknam
    The Twins need for two of these prospects to show a very high upside as top of the rotation number one or two starters. They have enough number five starters for the back of the rotation, like Festa, Matthews and SWR. Pitching depth is great, but if they are all number five starters, then that’s not that exciting. Raya’s pitch count limit is still a mystery. Is that because of his slight stature for a starter and they are being cautious, or because they already have injury concerns? I don’t see any downside to providing fans some insight on how they are handling Raya.
  24. Otaknam
    Festa, SWR and Matthews all look like number 4 or 5 starters right now. Hopefully they can develop other pitches or improve their repertoire in the off season. But I don’t see a solid upgrade in the pitching pipeline. I hope I am wrong.
  25. Otaknam
    Festa and Matthews both appear to be number four starters at this point. Hopefully they can keep improving like Ober did. Otherwise, the minor league teams seems to be bereft of potential number one or two starters, which you have to have to be competitive.
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