bean5302

Some of these are definitely bold haha.

Manny Margot is absolute proof of that.

Yeah, on mobile it's pretty impossible so thanks for responding at all, haha. Here is my full evaluation methodology for determining a player's rotational fit. ERA, FIP, xFIP, QS, QS2, Streak (number of QS2 in a row) ERA is king, but sometimes it's all luck so I use FIP/xFIP (especially compared to historical differences) to buffer it a bit. I look at quality starts, QS2, and the max number of QS2 in a row trying to identify anomaly. There are usually patterns which emerge. Even #2 rotation pitchers rarely put together more than 4-5 QS2's in a row where Ace pitchers typically do it week in and week out for an extended stretch during a season. Pablo Lopez 4.08 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 3.36 xFIP. QS 53%, QS2 59%, Streak = 4 Overall, that's mid rotation area. '21-24 GS Paddack 4.94 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.91 xFIP, QS 25% QS2,41%, Streak = 3 Luis Castillo 3.64 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, QS 60%, QS2 60%, Streak = 10 MacK. Core 3.90 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, QS 34%, QS2 56%, Streak = 4 Chris Bassitt 4.16 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, QS 39%, QS2 45%, Streak = 5 Kyle Gibson 4.24 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, QS 43%, QS2 50%, Streak = 5 '22 Dylan Bundy 4.89 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 4.70 xFIP, QS 7%, QS2 45%, Streak = 4 Paddack has been poor to very poor by any real result I use. He rarely goes 6+ innings, he doesn't even give the team a good chance to win a ball game half of the time. His ERA is poor and he has 2 bad starts for every 1 good one. That's over 44 starts from 2021-2024. He honestly compares to 2022's Dylan Bundy pretty well, and that was Bundy's last year in a MLB team uniform. Then there are the metrics used to evaluate what we think might happen for a pitcher. While TD articles have often painted Paddack as having upper rotation ceiling and stuff, he certainly doesn't strike guys out, and he does give up a lot of hits. The only thing that keeps Paddack even serviceable at the back end is he doesn't walk a lot of guys. Paddack has been all hype since 2019. Lots of pitchers have a promising rookie campaign before turning into pumpkins. There's just not much to suggest to me Paddack has some sort of ceiling above "serviceable."

100% Fans were deluding themselves thinking Bader wasn't going to be playing every day. If Buxton is healthy, it means Bader is likely in the corners.

Yeah, I mean, if all three of Buxton Correa and Lewis combined for their best career years at the same time and Lopez, Ryan and Ober combined for their healthiest and most productive seasons ever and the Twins get career years from a couple other people, they definitely are World Series Contenders. This kind of happened in 1991. Tapani, Morris and Erickson all had career years. Puckett, and Mack had awesome years, Knoblauch was RoY and the Twins got big performances from Hrbek, Davis and a few others. Having everything come together does happen, and it can lead a team to a World Series, it's just not really a strategy.

The big 3 are not MVP Caliber players or anywhere close to it. Even if they were healthy, they're no where close. The Twins playoff status probably depends on the other AL Central teams. The Twins look to be a team better built to make the playoffs than advance yet again. I feel this team is trying the same tried and failed philosophy they've had for 15+ years. A rotation which consists of the top 3 all being good rather than anybody great with two very low ceiling or retread types at the back. A position player roster of no truly elite players, and mostly guys who are borderline every day players. It's not as if the Twins are outright "bad" at any positions, they're just lacking the high ceiling at many spots. The bullpen looks to be formidable, but Baldelli's tendencies could easily lead to overwork and collapse when the team needs them most. Twins MVP: Matt Wallner Top WAR Pitcher: Pablo Lopez Top Rookie: Luke Keaschall Comeback Player: Royce Lewis

Don't forget about Dobnak and Blewett.

Agreed. That rough go 'round A+ season in 2022 at a high true prospect age 23 for that level put a big damper on Morales. That said, it was an isolated down year for him. He's consistently hit well otherwise. Unfortunately, he's been pretty old / experienced for the level by true prospect standards. It's preferable to see a23 in AA or higher for higher end prospects. At age 26 this season, and a ton of catching depth ahead of him, Morales has a high bar set to get opportunities. As far as outfield options go, his fielding numbers aren't great due in part to a poor error rate (stop me if you've heard that about a Twins prospect before...) and he was used exclusively as a left fielder with no playing time at CF/RF over the last 3 years. He'll need to be able to pass guys like Keirsey and Martin on the depth charts.

Injuries. Did pitchers not pitch because they were hurt or because the team didn't want them on the mound. That's the distinction. If the pitcher was getting roughed up with a 4.50+ ERA, it's because the team wanted a better option/result. Paddack's history isn't just last year on the ERA. 2021 on... 5.04, 4.03, 5.40, 4.99. You might counter about oh, well he's injured all the time so the samples are small. That's not a good reason to add him to the rotation. No, it sets people up for a reasonable expectation. First off, Lopez has never earned the "ace" moniker a lot of people around here assigned to him. So if you're using "ace" as a starting point for your vision of Lopez, it makes sense why you might be in disbelief Lopez could have such a rough year. IMHO, Lopez has been a back end #2 or top end #3 guy. Similar to a Berrios. Last year was a bad year for Lopez. I care about results, and Lopez was a mixed bag. The evaluation I use for a pitcher's performance generally includes ERA, something like FIP and percentage of starts 5.0+ IP with ERA 3.99 or less (I just call it QS2). If a guy has a few blow up games, but is otherwise highly effective, it can distort the ERA. I don't like FIP a lot for specific pitcher applications, but it can be helpful. What I really care about most is how often a pitcher goes out there and gives the team a start that puts the team in a good position to win the game. The meltdowns matter too, but often the meltdowns are a partial function of the manager and bullpen. Lets compare three pitchers last year. Lopez vs. Berrios vs. Gibson vs. Sears ERA 4.08 vs. 3.60 vs. 4.24 vs. 4.38 FIP 3.65 vs. 4.72 vs. 4.42 vs. 4.71 QS2 59% vs. 67% vs. 50% vs. 53% Lopez had a pretty nice FIP, but he put the Twins in a less than ideal spot in quite a few starts. That said, he was better than his ERA suggests on any given day with his overall 59% QS2 suggesting he's more on par with a #3ish starter. Lopez seems to always have a "shoulda woulda coulda" number a lot better than what actually happens. His ERAs are consistently much worse than his FIPs. It's not luck at this point. People would be a lot happier if they stopped setting expectations for Lopez based on his FIP. Berrios gave up a lot of HR, but they did minimal damage when he allowed them. It was the highest HR rate since his rookie year so while the FIP was sky high, he also probably gave up more HRs than expected, period. When it came to his starts, 67% of the time he delivered at least 5.0 innings and had an ERA of 3.99 or less. Not ace territory, but consistent with that #2/3 range that his ERA matched. Toronto usually wins the game when Berrios pitches. Even in Berrios' down years. Like his disaster of a campaign in 2022 (5.23 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 53% QS2, Blue Jays winning percentage that year with Berrios? .718). Kyle Gibson had results pretty consistent with Pablo Lopez. He had 2 fewer starts get that QS2 thumbs up than you'd expect for Lopez starting 30 games. Gibson is viewed as back end rotation arm. JP Sears also had results pretty similar to Lopez. I'm not sure how you view JP Sears as a starter, but I'm going to go ahead and say nobody views the guy as a mid/upper rotation option. Pablo Lopez's results last year were consistent with a lot of guys viewed as #3/4ish starters. They were not consistent with a pitcher you'd want at the front end of your rotation.

I gave samples that were relevant. Mixing in the other counts just makes the waters muddy because you have no idea how Jeffers got there.

There's a disconnect between acceptable for a #5, and what a team might actually just have to suck it up and eat. There were 71 pitchers in MLB who went at least 150 innings starting last year. Of those, only 10 had ERA's above 4.50. Less than 1/2 of them were expected to start the year in an MLB rotation. Mitch Spence a27 - 4.58 ERA, lost rotation job for the Athletics. Brandon Pfaadt a26 - 4.71 ERA, (3.61 FIP) made Diamondbacks rotation Austin Gomber a31 - 4.75 ERA, Rockies, shoulder injury, out. Frankie Montas a32 - 4.84 ERA, 2 year $17MM contract for Reds. Lat injury, out. Chris Flexen a30 - 4.95 ERA, MiLB contract with the Cubs. Griffin Canning a29 - 5.19 ERA, 1yr $4.25MM deal with Mets, IL replacement depth #6 in DC Miles Mikolas a36 - 5.35 ERA, Under 3yr contract at $18MM AAV Patrick Corbin a34 - 5.62 ERA, 1yr $1.1MM contract starting year in AAA IL replacement depth. Fans who believe 4.50 ERA is acceptable for a #5 aren't being realistic IMHO. 4.50 ERA is a fast ticket to the bullpen, the minors or totally out of MLB. Guys returning to the rotation from having an ERA at or above that breakpoint are pitching not because the team really wants them in the rotation, but because the team doesn't have any good options. This is about where the break points for a pitcher to be competitive and keep their jobs in my opinion 0.00-3.30 Ace 3.31-3.60 #2 3.61-3.90 #3 3.91-4.10 #4 4.11-4.30 #5

How low is this bar? Is it actually like a closet rod rolling on the ground? Paddack earned a DFA/release last year, but his contract prevented it.

International politics matters when the US is openly hostile with things like long standing economic and political sanctions on the proposed venue country. There's a difference between the view of the United States government diplomacy and businesses which operate in the United States.

I get the feeling the Pohlads haven't come to terms with how badly they've damaged their reputations with the fans. Every few days I get an email from my former season ticket rep. I didn't see an "unsubscribe" link in the email so now I just delete them without opening them. If the Pohlads new plan is related to sellers remorse, they're going to find it a very tough situation. Not sure why people think Baltimore is worth more? Baltimore has an poor market area competing directly (and recently losing) revenue to the Nationals who are just down the road. Baltimore is the 28th largest media market with MSP being #15 (75% larger) with Minneapolis having a 20% larger median household income with average home prices being 70% higher in MSP. Baltimore has a smaller market, lower population, lower income, and lower land value, and there are other major sports in the area. Plus, the Capitals and Wizards are a 45 minute drive away. Anyway, I'm convinced the Pohlad family screwed this deal up with the Ishbia's and the robust market interest had the Ishbia's way out in front of the bidding. I had speculated Glen Taylor came into the bidding after losing the Wolves and shook things up, but that would seem to be a less likely scenario than the Pohlad family just tripping all over themselves with ridiculous demands and driving the Ishbia's off.

Venezuela and Cuba are non-starters. With the political tension between the United States and those countries, it's not happening. The Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico really don't have stadiums/facilities fit for a regular season MLB game. Costa Rica 3hrs or Peru 6hrs would be better destinations due to their location, wealth, stability, and with the facilities appropriate to host an MLB game. Brazil could host one, but at 8-10hrs of flight time for the southern US teams, it's basically the same as Japan.

Bader is going to play every day. The Twins are banking on paying him at least $8MM, and if anything has been consistent with the Twins, it's playing veterans they paid money. Manny Margot got 343 PA last year despite being terrible all year, but there is a fair degree of likelihood Bader spends a lot of time on the IL which might hold him back. $6.25MM + $1.5M buyout + $200k for 400 PA. $8MM. Btw, 2026 is a mutual option, and if it doesn't work out. Mutual options virtually never get picked up by both parties. If Bader "works out" as you suggest, he's going to decline the option, collect the $1.5MM from the Twins and sign a new, probably multi-year, contract elsewhere.

The debt and liquidity are the issues for the Pohlads which are probably driving the sale rather than a major issue for the new buyers. Joe Pohlad was brought in as a marketing guy. It was clear nepotism and Joe's been largely incompetent in the ways visible to Twins fans. The Minnesota (Mariners) logo which I literally fielded questions from opposing fans, and casual Twins fans a half dozen times a year. It has been universally panned. Joe's statements have hurt the reputation of the club publicly. The quick departure of Meka White Morris serves to highlight the probable dysfunction in the organization's marketing and revenue strategy (Joe Pohlad is a fairly likely source of the friction). The fan survey on this site says it all. 5% approval, 95% disapproval. Fans want no more of the Pohlads right now.

Jeffers was 7% above league average at the plate last year. Glad his 2 strike approach was 31% above league average, but he certainly had a lot of experience in 2 strike counts to work on his approach. 1-0 = 174 PA 0-1 = 251 PA 0-2 = 118 PA 2-2 = 108 PA Jeffers consistently worked from way behind in the count which is a rough place to be. 30% better than league average with 2 strikes is still way worse than league average at 2-0.

I think you're right in that fans won't put up with a non-competitive team threatening to lose 100 games a year while prospects who aren't ready waste their service time in the majors. It's worth noting it wasn't all team controlled cheap prospects who carried the Twins into their era of competitive play. The team payroll nearly quadrupled from 1999 to 2003 as players reached the end of their team control. There are some teams who've carried that home grown prospects only philosophy forward like the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have been to the playoffs 3x over the past 26 years. The biggest problem with trying to run a team like it's 1999 is how player development and value have been advanced over time. Of course, it helps to draft 2 future MVP's and get a Cy Young through rule 5 all at the same time. I just don't think that's legitimately sustainable.

If we look at the defensive philosophy, deployment and drafting/development, it's hard to find an infield prospect who doesn't boot balls around like they're playing soccer. It's practically become a hallmark of Twins defenders to have lousy fielding percentages, even if they have the athletic tools. Is it really a matter of priorities when guys can't throw or catch balls?

As William Malone noted Christian Guzman was horrifying in his rookie year (and awful the next year too) Advocating for the Twins to follow the Guzman method is crazy to me. Guzman was well below average as a hitter in the minors, including his only AA experience where he managed a .656 OPS at age 20. The Twins then bafflingly had Guzman skip AAA altogether, immediately making him the full time SS at the MLB level for his age 21 season. It was a ludicrous strategy and Guzman went on to produce -3.4 WAR with poor defense and a .543 OPS (wRC+ 34) in 1999 and then -0.1 WAR with shaky defense and a .687 OPS (wRC+ 69, steroid era) in 2000. This method would basically be promoting Kaelen Culpepper to starting 3B this year.

The reason why metrics are used is because the eye test can be emotionally biased and based on a limited number of plays vs. analyzing all of the plays. Not saying Julien is a good fielder, btw. I've seen him make terrible plays and impressive plays. I honestly don't believe the Twins' coaches are capable of developing plus defensive players.

First major season onwards in fWAR: Bader vs. Margot vs Kepler 3.7 vs 2.4 vs 2.0 1.6 vs 1.0 vs 1.8 3.0* vs 1.6 vs 2.4 3.0 vs 1.5* vs 3.9 1.5 vs 2.1 vs 3.3* 0.9 vs 1.3 vs 2.2 1.3 vs 0.5 vs 1.5 N/A vs -0.2 vs 2.8 N/A vs N/A vs 1.0 *2020 season, each player played 47-50 games, multiplied WAR by 3x Bader is a significant step up from Margot, historically, and Margot was in obvious major decline defensively while Bader hasn't shown that. Ultimately, Bader is a much better option than Margot in terms of a backup for Byron Buxton. Bader is "fine" as insurance. I don't expect great things from him, but I also don't expect a sub 1.0 WAR season from him, let alone a negative WAR season like Margot had. In regard to comparing Bader to Kepler (who is annihilating pitchers in Spring Training), Kepler is the significantly better player. Kepler is a league average bat with some significant upside, and Max has pretty much always justified his role as an every day starter while Bader has been a backup quality player a couple times. Bader is a well below average bat without Kepler's ceiling, but Bader is the better of two defensively, by a healthy margin for the last couple years. Bader is going to play pretty much every day. He's probably on a 1 year $9.5MM contract ($6.25 base + $1.5MM for 500 PA + $1.5MM buyout).

He signed with the Yankees on an MLB contract.

The term natural position often means the position the player is most suited to play. Since he was drafted, many scouts felt Martin was going to end up at 2B due to a combination of his good, but not excellent speed, and an arm which isn't really suited for the far side of the infield.