bean5302

Ober's a solid starter and it did seems like he was down by about 1mph vs. last year. Easy to second guess Baldelli's decision to send him out there given the information floating around about Ober needing an IV yesterday. Dobnak pitched 5.1 innings so he wasn't going to be eligible for bullpen use for a while. The Twins DFA'd him because it's expected Randy will clear waivers. They'll be able to add Dobnak back to the roster when they need him. I don't think it would be absolutely shocking for a team to grab Dobnak at this point, but still highly unlikely another team grabs him, even though he's only owed $3MM this year with cheap team options later.

I didn't pronounce Winokur as a non-prospect, but like it or not, he does share some traits with Cavaco so he's as high risk as a prospect can be. Winokur's A ball campaign is arguably more impressive than both Rooker and Wallner because of Winokur's age and how much Winokur needed to adapt to the competition level he was facing. That said, comparing a high school pick to an SEC and CUSA superstar draft picks is tough because the college superstars from tough divisions have a lot wiggle room as they've got a history of performing against much tougher opponents which can aid in confidence.

Ryan, Ober and Lopez are all established veterans. The woulda, coulda, shoulda in their game has been established. Lopez, Ober and Ryan are all 3.90 ERA career guys, and they're all at the end of their prime. Both Ryan and Ober have gotten results in line with their FIPs, Lopez is usually worse than his advanced metrics.

Festa is working on his mechanics and feel for his new pitch so if a callup was needed today, I expect the call would go to Zebby Matthews. In terms of the two pitchers, Festa was a lot more effective than Matthews last year, but with just 3 pitches, all of which grade out as average MLB caliber, Festa's ceiling was probably #4. Matthews has more pitches, but execution limited his value. With the added velo, Matthews might be into that mid rotation starter potential now, but as of last year and what they had, Festa looked like a more solid bet as a back end arm. I expect both Matthews and Festa to pass SWR in the depth chart by year end.

157 pitchers with 80+ innings last year. Rank in ERA. Divide by 30 to get rotation spot. 0-30 = #1. Nobody 31-60 = #2. Joe Ryan #57 61-90 = #3. Bailey Ober #86, Pablo Lopez #90 (both at the very back edge of #3, both obvious Cy Young candidates around here) 91-120 = #4. Simeon Woods Richardson #93 121+ = #5. Chris Paddack #133

Winokur has a long, long way to go. A 30% K rate and rookie ball and repeating that at A ball last year has him a long shot to even make it above AA, IMHO. I'm sure the Twins enjoyed getting a look at Winokur this spring, and he's a fun prospect to think about just because of how unusual his skill set and physical traits. Lets hope he can learn to get a better feel for the approach at the plate. Right now, Winokur looks an awful lot like Keoni Cavaco with some good pop to me.

Quoted sentence 1 is the reason why you have the problem with quoted sentence 2. Twins fans often look like complete homer morons on national sites and I've had to endure more than a couple taunting sessions when fans from around the nation make jokes at the rampant Twins homerism projecting random bit player fan favorites into lofty championship trophy contenders. It sounds all harmless, but it's really just extreme disrespect for the players who truly are the best in the game. No amount of logic or reason or comparisons are allowed around here when it comes to some random try hard underdog here at TD.

Replace Buck with "Kirilloff" and you'd have that spot on.

I think Martin is a fair bit more desirable than Fairchild. Martin's bat is better, he can play infield positions and he has options. Austin Martin basically what the Twins hoped Willi Castro would be. Versatile, bat limited utility player just good enough to play if you need him. Castro forced his way into every day playing time, but it's very unlikely Martin will be able to do the same. Martin's career will probably be limited to MiLB invites and shuttling between AAAA/MLB while he has options. He just hasn't demonstrated the defensive instincts necessary to excel in the utility role. I fully expect DaShawn Keirsey will be DFA'd by mid year. Whether or not Martin or Emma replaces him depends entirely on how Emma plays.

Buxton doesn't have 8 WAR talent. In 150 games, Buxton will produce 5-6 WAR, if he hasn't started his decline. Let's play the I believe Byron Buxton is an MVP candidate and a prospect game again this year. Let's pretend Byron Buxton plays in 150 games every single year since his rookie season. How much WAR would Buxton have generated? 2015 = 0.3 2016 = 3.1 2017 = 4.8 2018 = (2.7) 2019 = 5.3 2020 = 5.0 2021 = 10.1 2022 = 5.7 2023 = 1.1 2024 = 5.4 I think it's pretty obvious what the outlier seasons are (bolded) where the SSS monster came out to play. In the last 5 believable seasons, Buxton has generated between 4.8-5.7 WAR. That's Buxton. That's his ceiling if he played 150 games (which will never ever ever happen) Someday... far far far into the future, I hope writers on this site will stop pretending who Buxton might be and accept and enjoy who he is.

Not sure what you're implying, but I think it's writers have a bias towards LAD/NYY? There is none of that I can really see. Since Falvey took over, 5 of 16 Cy Youngs have been awarded to AL Central or NL Central pitchers (right on average). Only 6 of the 16 went to East or West Coast teams. **Tarik Skubal DET Chris Sale ATL Gerrit Cole NYY Blake Snell SDP Justin Verlander HOU Sandy Alcantara MIA Robbie Ray TOR **Corbin Burnes MIL **Shane Bieber CLE **Trevor Bauer CIN Justin Verlander HOU Jacob deGrom NYM Blake Snell TBR Jacob deGrom NYM **Corey Kluber CLE Max Scherzer WAS

Eric Davis and Byron Buxton have a lot of similarities. Similar peak talent, similar body type, similar at the plate with a lot of Ks and a lot of power (relative), and similar struggles with injuries (relative to their own time). Thing about Davis was he qualified 4 consecutive years 1987-1990 and from his first full season a24 through a28, Davis accumulated as many games and PA as Buxton has in his career, and Davis was simply a better hitter because he walked a lot. I think Buxton's ceiling was Eric Davis, but even Davis only had 2 successful seasons in the 10 years after age 28.

No chance in hell a #4 rotation arm wins the Cy Young these days. This is an absolutely stupid debate. The day Statcast Run Values and things like "extension" factor into Cy Young, I quit watching baseball.

Morris had an ace level mustache and diva attitude acceptable for an "ace," but on the mound, Morris was was never competitive with the best pitchers in the league. Even in 1991, he was the 3rd best pitcher in the rotation behind Tapani and Erickson. Even at his peak, Morris walked a lot of guys, spiked a lot of balls in the dirt and gave up a lot of hits. Thankfully, Morris had a host of gold glovers backing him up.

I think the writer is just a big fan of Jeffers so he's fudging Jeffers' production a little through some cherry picking and optimism.

To be blunt, Keirsey sucked for 5 of 6 years in the minors and he was age 27 when all the sudden he had a near .400 BABIP. Eeles has always produced and he's age 25. If he fully recovers from surgery and has some good peripherals while raking in AAA, he'll probably get a shot this year.

If the Dodgers played in the AL Central, I'd say the 116 win record was in danger, but the NL West should be strong this year so feasting off the division will be hard. In addition, both the Phillies and Braves look to have overpowering rotations, though you have to think the Braves could have 3+ candidates for the award. That team could be a juggernaut when it comes to pitching. AL East - This should be another brutal division. The Red Sox look to have assembled a very real threat this year. The Yankees and the Orioles have their work cut out for them. The Blue Jays are dangerous, too. More than they get credit for. The Rays should be an also ran here. Just too many question marks. AL Central - The stat padding division for the AL. None of the teams look dominant. The Royals could be powerful, but it depends on their young guys stepping up. The Tigers have a higher floor than the Royals, but I'm not as convinced of their ceiling. The Twins have the highest floor of the bunch, but also the most limited ceiling above the floor. I heard MLB is going to swap rosters in the White Sox organization between the Charlotte Knights (AAA) and White Sox so Chicago plays better. AL West - Seattle has the rotation, but more questions at the plate than I'd like. The Rangers' rotation depends on the health of the most made of glass pitcher in MLB. The Athletics aren't there even despite the survey voter who picked Brent Rooker as the 2025 MVP. Homerism you say? Well I'd pick Rooker MVP way before any Twins pitcher winning the Cy Young. NL East. The Phillies and Braves are my favorites with the Braves ranking a little over the Phillies. Atlanta is going to win some games scoring only 1 run. The Mets lack the rotation, IMHO. If Trout and Ohtani can't drag a team into the playoffs, Lindor and Soto can't either. Washington will be bad, but Miami should be the subject of an MLBPA grievance allowing all their players to elect free agency at the end of the season. They're worse than the Rockies and White Sox (who at least try sometimes). Miami is a joke. A blight on baseball. NL Central. Forgot to even talk about them so I'm editing. Yeah. Ummmm... Cubs? The Cubs have a solid lineup and a capable rotation, and that should be enough to win the division IMHO. The Cardinals, Pirates, Reds and Brewers all have tons of holes in their team. The Reds are probably the next most complete team with what should be a solid enough rotation. This division will feed a lot of NL West wins... NL West. Obviously, the purpose built unlimited expense All Star team that is the Dodgers is the favorite, but their top rotation arms could be challenged in the playoffs. The Padres have a powerful lineup and deep mid/upper rotation group. The Diamondbacks and the Giants are both potentially dangerous with rotations which could be very good and while there are a couple holes in the lineup, they'll hold their own. The Rockies are... dreadful. The project even lower than the White Sox. AL MVP - Bobby Witt, Jr. NL MVP - Juan Soto AL Cy Young - Garrett Crochet NL Cy Young - Spencer Strider AL RoY - Kristian Campbell NL RoY - Roki Sasaki

Sonny Gray. Tremendous. Everybody knows it. He's the guy. He's the best guy. Other pitchers? Garbage. Can't compete. Everybody agrees with me.

I think the Twins will trade him in 2027 when his NTC bends to allow trades to 5 teams chosen by Buck.

I have my fingers crossed for Connor Prielipp this year. It's pivotal. If Prielipp stays healthy and dominates AA as a starter, I could see him getting promoted to AAA and stretching out to 100 innings with the potential of being in the Twins rotation mid next year. He could turn into Tarik Skubal or Matt Canterino. He's the only guy in our system I think has likely elite potential.

Or how other teams feel about a guy who is worse than a AAA replacement player.

Cal Raleigh is one of the top catchers in baseball. Jeffers is not anywhere close. I'd go 4yrs $28MM for Jeffers now. Raleigh is durable, a better defensive catcher, and a consistently near All Star caliber bat for a position player, let alone a catcher. He put up a more valuable season last year than any Twins player has ever accomplished under Derek Falvey's regime. Raleigh vs. Jeffers from Raleigh's first full season. fWAR 2022 - 4.2 vs. 0.8 fWAR 2023 - 4.3 vs. 2.3 fWAR 2024 - 5.4 vs. 1.7 fWAR Last 3 - 13.9 vs. 4.7 fWAR Plate Appearances 2022 - 415 vs. 236 PA 2023 - 569 vs. 335 PA 2024 - 628 vs. 465 PA Last 3 - 1,610 vs. 1,036 Batting 2022 - 122 vs. 86 wRC+ 2023 - 113 vs. 137 wRC+ 2024 - 117 vs. 107 wRC+ Last 3 - 117 vs. 112 wRC+ Jeffers has a league average bat. That super luck fueled 2023 makes a huge impact on Jeffers career numbers. wRC+ 83, 86, 137, 107. It's pretty easy to see the outlier there. Jeffers is just your average run of the mill starting catcher.

What does 2019 Paddack have to do with today Paddack? Let's get Stephen Strasburg out of retirement! Bet he'll be cheap! Career ERA 3.24, dude!!!

The starting rotation is interesting because of who is not part of the Saints. Keeping Paddack means both CJ Culpepper (a23) and Corey Lewis (a24 finished in AAA) will be back in AA. On top of that, there are no MLB retread/comeback stories blocking prospects this year. When it comes to the catchers, I wonder how much playing time and leash they'll get? Cartaya and Camargo were both K machines in Spring Training while Winkour got a couple looks late in ST and managed to not be overwhelmed in ultra SSSS. Morales has no room for catching duty. Infield is another major depth issue. I'd wager. With Holland, Eeles, and Lee all hurt, it sure does make the infield situation thin. Thinking Severino at DH, Ford at 1B, Alvarez at 3B, Prato at SS, and Keaschall at 2B? The outfield looks pretty set. Emma CF, Morales LF, McCusker RF is my guess.

The legend has it DaShawn Keirsey just didn't try for his first 5 years in the minors. He actually paid a look a like beer league softball guy to play in his stead. Then, last year, Keirsey decided it was time to make the big leagues as he got used to the salary bump from the new CBA and he wanted more. Once Keirsey actually took the field as himself, not a single ball ever dropped for a hit in the outfield and he made prior Twins legends at DH like Jim Thome and Nelson Cruz look like lightweights, and former hitting icon Joe Mauer look pedestrian when it came to plate discipline and hitting skills. Seriously, though. Keirsey's reputation reminds me of the legend of Anthony Slama...