bean5302

Fedko is following the pattern of struggle, do well, struggle, do well on back to back years at the same level. Generally, it's synonymous with iffy prospects and Fedko is already 25. It's great to see him hitting so well, but he's never shown this kind of power production. He's literally doubled his best ISO's of his MiLB career so far. It's not unheard of for game power to explode at age 24-26, but he looks like a pretty late bloomer. There's a lot of moving pieces right now in the Twins' system with Wallner set to be activated any day. Outfield Options for St. Paul DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. - 26 man Emmanuel Rodriguez - 40 man Jeferson Morales - a26 NR (Intl sign Venezuela 2016) Daulton Shuffield - a26 NR (10th round 2022) Austin Martin - 7 day IL Hamstring (probably back soon) Shuffield can play IF, same with Austin Martin, who might be better at 2B than as a corner OF option, but who the Twins shift around is totally up in the air to me.

Emma doesn't have a great eye at the plate in my opinion, but it's not terrible, either. Pitchers are throwing him absolute junk because there's no reason to stay in the zone against him. I've long suspected Rodriguez would struggle against better pitching, and while he is walking in AAA, MLB pitchers won't have to throw "junk" to get him out IMHO. Swinging strike 3 down and away (changeup) and up and away (fastball) to frame his 4 plate appearances where pitchers felt comfortable throwing him a ball in the dirt on 3-0 counts in the middle two plate appearances. I've been watching the box scores against him recently. Could be a really cold spell, but seems consistent.

Lower K rate in AAA than Low A. It's hard not to see progress there overall or look at how his results have changed as he's moved up the ladder. He's definitely gotten better, and we're dealing with a sample size over the course of 1,000 plate appearances. The bar was DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. 1.6% BB, 33.3% K. The guy at .115/.143/.164 wRC+ -20. When Keirsey is getting regular playing time, I think it's reasonable to want him on the bench or in AAA vs. McCusker, but I also would have liked to see McCusker stay in AAA a little longer.

Nobody is a lock on the Twins for some reasons previously noted. First, pitchers don't get votes from fans. Second, the season is still young so regression is going to happen for both Twins players and league players so there are going to be some big swings in results columns/value. Third, the Twins don't have a strong fan base to vote for them. Fourth, the team doesn't have any popular superstars on it. In regard to who deserves an All Star nod at this point in the season, there will need to be 12 pitchers and 20 position players: OF x6 - Buxton gets the nod as deserving here, but he's not going to be a starter because he's not winning a popular vote. 1B x2 - None. 2B x2 - None. 3B x2 - None. SS x2 - None. C x 2 - None. DH x 1 - None. Open x 3 - None. SP x 7ish - None. RP x 5ish - Duran. When it comes to starters, Skubal, Eovaldi, Crochet, Bubic, Brown, Fried, Woo arguably all better than our guys, and if we change up the vote to rely on ERA, guys like Mahle get the nod. When it comes to relievers, Jax is a tough sell with the ERA, but I could see players/managers putting him in because of the luck factor in SSS.

Holland's bat was weak to terrible in the minors until last year in a SSS with a career MiLB wRC+ 72. Arcia's had solid years of production at the MLB level, but he was rough last year. He's a MLB career wRC+ 77. Holland may well make Vazquez look like an MVP at the plate. Hitting? That's debatable, but I'd lean towards probably not. Fielding? Absolutely night and day. Brooks Lee can't handle SS. It's a moot point, though. Arcia signed an MLB deal with the Rockies already.

Sabato was left off the roster and exposed to rule 5 and he's still in AA. The former first round pick's batting line features a .352 BABIP when his career number is .272, and it's not like Sabato is hitting for power. It does not make sense to compare McCusker to Sabato for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was Sabato was a supposedly polished first round pick who's had years of the best coaching and instruction in the world while McCusker was undrafted and has needed to rely upon coaches equipped with far fewer capabilities. It shows in the way they've progressed. Sabato has largely stalled out while McCusker has continued to get better and grow as he's moved up levels. It's not like McCusker is any kind of guaranteed MLB caliber player, but he's got a lot higher chance of being valuable than Sabato.

The Ishbia's did walk away, then bought a greater share in the White Sox, which is not a negotiation tactic. Not sure what soured the Ishbia's so hard towards the end of negotiations, but it's pretty clear the Pohlads botched it. It sounds like the Pohlads want to roll their debt into the sale and bury it. They've moved down to $1.5B, but even then, rolling $400MM of negative equity into the sale puts the actual price at more like $1.9B. https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/minnesota-twins/rumors-team-sale-update-potential-buyers-losing-interest/ https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-rumors/report-potential-minnesota-twins-buyers-being-turned-off-by-price

65-70% strike rate is pretty normal. It's not like Matthews was throwing 70% of his pitches in the zone. In fact, he was throwing just 48.1% "strikes" which is below average. On the season he's at 52.6% zone rate, which is middle of the pack. I'm not sure where the narrative Matthews pounds the zone comes from. I guess it's because his stuff is close enough to the zone or good enough to get MiLB hitters to chase or that he can throw a strike if needed. It's pretty clear Matthews has plenty to work on when it comes to command. Joe Ryan had a problem with not issuing walks when he needed to earlier in his career. To avoid the walk, he'd throw a challenge pitch and his stuff wasn't really good enough to pull that off. Baldelli talked about it as well. I think Matthews might be in the same boat. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he does have pitches which are good enough to get it done. He'll need to learn better command and when to make that challenge pitch vs. when not to. It'll pay off down the line if he's able to get those things in order.

I do not hate the Pohlads or have disdain for them. I hate the way the team has been run, especially in recent seasons, and that's the responsibility of the Pohlad family. The most recent information in the media suggests the Pohlads aren't being reasonable in their selling price which further irritates me. Trying to roll the Pohald Family business debt into the Twins while simultaneously asking for top dollar just isn't realistic. All that said, it's not like I wish them any ill will personally. I'd like them to get rid of the team and sell it to new ownership who might manage the business better.

I meant it when I said your "eye test" might be a lot more valuable than the limited metrics I have to go on. It wasn't me being sarcastic. There aren't enough quality metrics out there on Gasper to make a strong case in his defense.

Paddack will be a salary dump to make room for a different acquisition at best, IMHO. Nobody is giving up a decent prospect for him.

I think everybody is happy with the results Paddack has been getting. I'm over the moon with it, to be honest. It's just not going to stay that way. He's going to end the year with a 5.00 ERA or so.

Jenkins is out until at least June. There's been some coverage of it, but it's easy to miss since it's been a while. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/twins-top-prospect-walker-jenkins-can-t-shake-nagging-ankle-injury

Noticed the Saints replaced Wallner in right field with Morales in the top of the 8th. A little concerning considering the Saints were down 10-4 so it's not like it was a hold the lead type of a defensive substitution. Camargo's right forearm strain is also concerning. I may not believe he's going to be an MLB caliber player, but it'd be no fun to see him end his season with a UCL injury. Hopefully, it's just a minor muscle strain issue that'll clear up fast. Baker continues to do well in AA, overall. Allowed a run in a labored 4th inning, but left the game after only 58 pitches. As a MiLB rule 5 pick, Baker is about as good as you might hope. Seems like there's a chance he could find his way into the bullpen even if a spot in the rotation seems a bit of a stretch. Doncon should be moved back up soon. It's clear he's wasting time in Ft. Myers at this point.

There are some exceptions like Joe Mauer, but I don't think "clutch" hitters are better because they take it up a notch or something. They're probably better because they slow it down and play normal. They take "professional hitter" type of at bats rather than trying to hit a 5 run home run, feeling the energy. Kirk Gibson's famous HR off Eckersley was just Gibson fouling off pitches away and holding off on pitches well outside until Eckersley made a mistake leaving a ball over the middle on the 7th pitch or so of the at bat. Eckersley famously hadn't allowed a HR in two months finishing runner up in the Cy Young to our own Frank Viola so Eckersley wasn't a guy to make a lot of mistakes. If the batter can stay focused, and unstressed as possible, they'll potentially have an advantage over a pitcher feeling the moment and being distracted. We saw that from Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa in the 2023 playoffs. It didn't always work, but Lewis and Correa were really the only hitters who made the Astros pitchers throw strikes as I recall. The rest of the lineup was taking tons of unprofessional, hectic at bats. Swinging away when they shouldn't have been, and it made it easy.

He's off on timing. Not sure if it will suddenly come back or not, but he's making a lot contact rather than striking out. The hit tool is there, but he's looking awkward so I have to wonder if he's healthy enough to be playing.

Using a single peripheral metric or even a couple can paint an inaccurate picture of potential regression because they all have flaws and outliers. ERA is king over multiple full seasons in my opinion. Paddack's ERA is 3.98 this year. It's 4.33 lifetime. On to some of the metrics. FIP and xFIP ignore batted ball data treating all batted balls (except home runs) the same, and all ballparks the same. In general, it works pretty well at a glance because "most" pitchers will be fairly accurate to these metrics. FIP thinks ground balls are the same as line drives and xFIP thinks an infield pop up at Great American Ballpark (Cincinatti) is the same as warning track fly balls at Oracle (San Fran). Paddack's FIP and xFIP are 4.64 and 4.96 while being at 4.09 and 4.02 lifetime. Metrics like SIERA look at the type of batted ball like pop up, line drive, grounder or fly ball, and adjusts for the ballpark factor. xERA takes detailed batted ball information like exit velocities, launch angles, etc. into account, but ignores the park factors. SIERA treats a 120mph 500ft towering home run the same as a 80mph soft fly ball. xERA treats T-Mobile (Seattle) like Coors Field (Denver) for batted balls. His SIERA and xERAs are 4.23 and 4.90. Lifetime 4.02 and 4.26, respectively. Then there are metrics like strikeout percentage and walk percentage. If a pitcher strikes a ton of guys out and doesn't walk anybody, they're going to be expected to be dominant as there will rarely be guys on base to do damage. 16.1% and 8.8% for Paddack is terrible for K rate and pretty poor for walk rate. K/9 and BB/9 are nice to glance at because they're easier to understand, but if tons of guys are getting on base, it dilutes the /9 rates down. Metrics like FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA, K/9, BB/9, K%, BB%, Exit Velocity and BABIP are all designed to replicate the "eye test" for the most part. Except an "eye test" which is totally unbiased and observes every single walk, strike out or batted ball for a pitcher. It's like circumstantial evidence in a case. When all the evidence corroborates a story, the chances the evidence is wrong is lower. Looking at metrics and using them as projection devices can be largely opinion based. Which metrics a person values or doesn't value, looking at the peripherals and adjusting the picture, adding the history of a player or changes to mechanics, etc to the equation. I guess... metrics turn people into professional scouts who can watch every single game, every pitch, every batted ball in a way. To me, folks who intentionally mislead about the value or lack of value of metrics are basically pointing to Ben Revere hitting a home run as proof he's a power hitter. There are also instances where the "eye test" can be argued against metrics. @chpettit19 watched a game or two where Mickey Gasper was the catcher in AAA and believes Gasper just looked like he was doing a poor job. With the limited metrics available, it looks like Gasper is "adequate" behind the dish. @chpettit19's eye test might be a lot more valuable than the metrics I can see because those metrics are so limited in that case, but he's also strongly personally biased in my opinion. YMMV on how valuable his accounting of events based on his eye test is or how valuable the limited data is in supporting Gasper's credibility as a potential depth catcher.

I don't think it's any revelation the Twins' depth at SS is non-existent. There's Carlos Correa and then a bunch of guys who have no business at the position, but have been asked to play it in recent years. Orlando Arcia is a defensive specialist at SS with a bat that has trended down in the last couple of years, but it hasn't been unplayable with any significant sample size considering his defense. At least not unless you track it all the way back to 2018. The only real SS the Twins have who is MLB-ready is Will Holland. Holland is great defensively by all accounts, but he's barely been able to hold his own at the plate in the minors until just recently. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/05/braves-dfa-orlando-arcia-activate-ronald-acuna-jr.html Would it be worth signing Arcia to a MiLB contract for depth protection with Correa being less reliable in recent seasons?

3 or 4 bad starts? 4.40 ERA good value? 0.5 WAR per season for a starter is not good. That's also not what the Twins paid for him. They also paid Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker.

Paddack is Kevin Correia circa 2013 is what the article is saying, and it's dead on point. While guys can stay lucky for the entire year, it's not normal to see it happen. Paddack getting results is great for the Twins, and he's gotten it done several times when the Twins felt absolutely desperate. I don't expect this to continue, but I'd love to swap his contract for something at the trade deadline if we can pull it off, and our depth allows for it.

Bailey Ober's keeping runs off the board by generating tons of pop ups, and he generates those pop ups by staying in the zone. MLB batters make a lot of contact against Ober's pitches outside the zone, and batters have been hitting a lot of line drives off him this year. Both Ober's pitch and Duran's pitches were good. Ober set Fermin up with sweeper/slider upper-middle, then sweeper inside, then went to the changeup that moves 3B side, the opposite direction of his previous pitches at the bottom edge/ outer-middle of the zone. Ober would have probably liked it to be a little further outside by a couple inches to be perfect, but still good. Duran's threw 2 - 100mph fastballs that rise 12" and move inside towards the batter to paint the upper-inside corner with 2 strikes. The first strike swinging, the second strike foul. Now Fermin is on timing with the fastball. The last pitch was an 88mph knuckle curve down out of the strike zone down-middle, and the curve moves towards 1B away from the batter while dropping 2 feet more than his fastball. Duran wants the curve to look like a strike to get the swing at a pitch out of the zone with little chance of contact, but use the 12mph difference to generate either a foul if there is contact. Fermin was on the curve. Good pitch. A little lower would have been a great pitch. Throwing junk to the best hitters on the planet, and just hoping the catcher blocks it with a runner in scoring position? That's a bad pitch, even if it works.

I could have just pulled some random quote out of my backside and tried to pass it off as fact, I suppose. Instead, I took 2 minutes to look up some data and type it out. It'll help other people who are wondering why Adams isn't higher in the depth chart. FYI, just got in from taking the bike out for a test ride to make sure everything is in order after swapping in a new battery. It's nice out today!

I think he's got a lot of pitch options and his stuff moves pretty well, but not being able to have control of pitches feels like a mechanical issue to me. When guys are good, I think they can just rely on movement until they get into AA, and especially AAA. Seasoned hitters can lay off non-competitive pitches, even if they move really well, and a lot of guys at AAA have MLB experience. With Raya being unable to locate his pitches with any kind of regularity, he's not going to be successful at the MLB level. Kinda feels like Alcala, right?

It'll be even more interesting to see if he does well whether or not the Twins will logjam him behind a group of career MiLB roster filler guys.

Kody Clemens is really bringing some attention to himself. Must feel like a dream to a guy on the verge of washing out of MLB. His "average" exit velocity is 96.8mph right now which is basically at career best for Aaron Judge despite Clemens having like 55 grade power instead of 80 grade. Like every ball is being barreled, haha. None of this makes sense, but it is fun to watch.