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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I thought, finally, after all the years the writers here would stop this Buxton MVP garbage. He is not and never will be an MVP candidate. Buxton is a 5-6 WAR full season player. That's not getting you an MVP.
  2. bean5302
    Might have something to do with:
  3. bean5302
    Volpe 83 games played per 1 WAR. Lewis 40 games played per 1 WAR. Career
  4. bean5302
    Normal TJ normally 15-18 months, but some times quicker. Brace TJ normally 12-15 months from what I've seen. Lopez being ready for the normally scheduled home opener would be maybe 50/50 IMHO. I think people have really oversold the internal brace timeline.
  5. bean5302
    It takes two to tango as they say. There aren't going to be a lot of serious buyers to sell to until after the All Star Break. I think a lot more of the sellers will be clear in the next couple weeks, though. Some teams in the AL just have to start playing well. I don't think Emma and Jenkins have anything to do with the decisions, though... at least I hope. The Twins aren't sure when they're going to have a legit roster to compete with, how long this ownership group will last, what next season's landscape will look like, etc. It's possible Falzoll just gonna Falzoll, but we'll just have to wait and see as fans.
  6. bean5302
    Culpepper was diagnosed with a hip strain. I'd expect him to be out a few weeks. https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/twins-no-2-prospect-suffers-153239293.html
  7. bean5302
    Pitchers add velo through major mechanical motion changes involving a long wind up, extension off the mound, etc. I don't know of success stories for infielders who need to get rid of the ball without all the pre-delivery work. That said, 2B isn't throwing that far. Most of their throws are 60 feet or less and the time between an 80mph (weak) throw and a 85mph (median) throw doesn't matter nearly as much. (0.03 sec) difference over 60 feet. If the 2B gets to the ball, it's almost always going to be an out.
  8. bean5302
    Willi Castro could solidly stand where players who played MLB positions stood on the field. He couldn't field like MLB players would if real MLB caliber fielders were standing there, but Castro could stand as well as anybody. Ryan Jeffers could be asked to stand at SS or CF, too.
  9. bean5302
    Keaschall's fielding is the least of my concerns right now. True, he's a very poor fielder, but that is to be expected. Every scouting report on him has said the same thing. Lousy fielder. Needs a lot of work, might be best suited for DH. His bat "that plays" not playing at the MLB level is the problem. It hasn't played. He's been very poor at the plate. He wasn't good at the plate in AAA in a SSS. He didn't really project well at AA for that matter. As soon as Keaschall started facing more talented pitching, his power began evaporating. It's not musical chairs in the field. A bat which barely plays at 2B or 3B won't play at 1B or DH. Defensive versatility is myth. You play guys at the position where they provide the most value or you're wasting resources. Keaschall probably provides the most value at 2B. His arm doesn't play at SS or 3B or CF. He doesn't have the skills to play catcher, and his bat doesn't play anywhere else. It's probably 2B or bust. The Twins knew Keaschall's defense was a work in progress when they called him up. This front office does not really care how badly players field. Brooks Lee is just as bad at SS as Keaschall is at 2B. They gave Lee what, like 150 games to prove he couldn't handle SS, which was well documented and known by pretty much every scout in the industry when Lee was drafted.
  10. bean5302
    I think we're probably going to see more Fedko-like players as time passes. In large part due to the changes in the CBA where it's not so punishing to play MiLB anymore. Wages are still poor, but not nearly as tough as they were, and perks like team provided housing and improved benefits makes it possible for fringy prospects to keep working towards living the dream.
  11. bean5302
    Not adding a person to the 40 man roster is not manipulating service time. Only the 26 man roster counts for service time. Aside from that, you absolutely can run a team based on manipulating service time. Almost every team does this. You say you understand prospects develop differently, then say other players have been promoted so Jenkins should also be promoted? Seems like you don't believe what you're saying you believe. If Jenkins plays well enough to deserve the promotion, he should be promoted. Sure. He hasn't done that so far, but if he's actually good and looks ready when he comes back from the IL for enough games, I agree he should get his chance.
  12. bean5302
    He's out of options after this year. The Twins badly need to get a look at him and a feel for where he's at vs. MLB pitching. He's been in the system 8 years now, 6 years in the US minors. Top international prospects make it to the big show by age 21-22.
  13. bean5302
    No rush on Jenkins. He's not rule 5 eligible until after the 2027 season finishes.
  14. bean5302
    Yeah, he's got one. No reason to release him, just send him to St. Paul.
  15. bean5302
    It was straight up stupid. Diving head first into first base after he's injured his thumbs sliding head first seemingly a dozen times. Flat out reckless and stupid. Comes with being 23 years old, I suppose, though I feel like most players are smart enough to learn how to slide after a major injury 1-2x. Emma's approach may not be viable at the MLB level. I'm certainly skeptical he won't get absolutely eaten up, but his inability to stay on the field has been par for the course for Twins prospects. I'm not bullish at all on him to be honest. I think he'll be AAAA. MLB pitchers will exploit his advanced understanding of the strike zone by throwing pitches in the zone that Emma can't hit (which are a lot of pitches based on that 30% K rate). Anyway, he needs to be in MLB ASAP once he completes his rehab assignment. Maybe he can make it back for mid August?
  16. bean5302
    Fedko is probably here to try and supplant the role the Twins wanted Austin Martin to be able to play. 4th outfielder who gets 50-80 starts a year or so depending on Buxton's health. Fedko's getting a "just in case" chance with the Twins. Gives them a chance to do a double-check before they write a player off. Maybe Fedko has something which translates well to MLB. We'll have to see!
  17. bean5302
    I didn't create fielding percentage. I didn't create DRS I didn't create OAA Ask the people who created the metrics used to evaluate players on what Kreidler needs to do in order to be an above average SS in MLB. Last I looked, apart from his rookie season, Kreidler has been an average or worse SS. OMG, Keaschall hit a home run! He's back! I didn't create xwOBA. I didn't create OBA. I didn't create wRC+. I didn't create Exit Velocity or any number of metrics which don't support Keaschall slowly getting better unless you narrow the sample size down to an irrelevant level. Show me a consistent 20 games or a month where he's steady better.
  18. bean5302
    My dead grandma could OPS .750 in the International League. It's not about the OPS. It's about comparing how players perform relative to their peers. Unless you think the AAA teams are better than MLB teams?
  19. bean5302
    Nice opportunity for Fedko, and I think the DFA of Arcia is a nice move for Arcia himself as well. I'd be a little surprised if he didn't get claimed as his bat isn't looking great, but it's not looking as bad as it was previously. He's a known quantity, and you could do worse for an injury replacement guy. I don't expect much out of Fedko, but it seems like the Twins are pretty concerned with Buxton and we don't honestly have a great CF alternative we can call up. Here's hoping Kyler proves me wrong!
  20. bean5302
    Low bar for outstanding play. The bar apparently starts at "below average" -1 DRS, -1 OAA with a .952 fielding percentage. Don't get me wrong, he's almost certainly going to be better than Brooks Lee, and that's been the bar recently, lol. Keaschall is struggling with everything, and I don't see the improvement you're seeing, but I don't think it's a bad thing the Twins are giving him a long leash. I feel like they've been too quick to demote players over the past few years rather than letting the players work though stuff.
  21. bean5302
    LOL, yes he will. His K rate would be 25%+ at the MLB level real fast. He was striking out at AAA 25.5% last year.
  22. bean5302
    Walker Jenkins is unlikely to be better at the plate than any Twins outfielder on the roster. Jenkins was barely holding his own at AAA. My guess is Jenkins looks a lot like a lesser version of Luke Keaschall right now.
  23. bean5302
    I've never been super bullish on Jenkins, but he has looked good the past couple years. I'm not sure he has enough game power to warrant a call up this year, assuming he can even get a decent sample size of plate appearances, which seems like a long shot given his constant IL assignments. He's 12th of 28 players aged 22 or younger in AAA this year by wRC+. He's got a lot of physical talent, but these constant injuries are going to rob him of that athleticism pretty quick. He needs a solid 300 PA in AAA before I'd call his number, and I think he's going to struggle to get there. As of right now, he'd be a well below average MLB hitter.
  24. bean5302
    Are you grabbing your tickets through the box office or resellers? I think the days of the extremely great deals on resellers is over. There are so few season ticket holders left there aren't a lot of tickets offered for sale. I'm seeing prices similar to the box office (I can certainly appreciate that as a former season ticket holder who used to lose their &^% on selling extra games I couldn't attend.) I feel like, in previous seasons, getting tickets at the box office at Target Field itself skipped a lot of fees. It's not skipping them anymore.
  25. bean5302
    I mean... in theory, haha. Every run a pitcher allows drastically decreases the chances a team will win the game. 4 runs allowed in 6 innings makes it very unlikely a team is going to win. That means your team needs to score 5 runs with 3 innings left for the bullpen to cover. Even a good bullpen would be expected to allow 1 run over 3 innings. So Twins would have been expected to need to score at least 6 to win. In general the team scoring the following number of runs' winning percentage. Score 0 = 0% chance Score 1 = 5% chance Score 2 = 10% chance Score 3 = 25% chance Score 4 = 45% chance Score 5 = 60% chance Score 6 = 80% chance That's just off my head. I did some analysis on that a few years ago. About what I remember. Anyway, that's why 5.0 innings and ERA of 3.99 or less is so much more valuable than QS. 6 innings 3 runs or less. If a pitcher goes out and allows 3 runs in 6 innings, there's a way lower chance to win the game vs. 5.0 innings and 2 runs.
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