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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Grandfathering worked great for the Wild when they signed Parise and Suter. That said, MLB will bend over backwards for their precious cash cow so nothing is going to happen which will annoy the Dodgers too much, I don't think.
  2. bean5302
    I think BaseballTradeValues has shown teams can overpay a bit at the deadline in general (Jose Berrios to Toronto was viewed as an overpay by the Blue Jays at the time), but the general trade value of players seems to be fairly reliable. The calculation BTV uses is projected future production under the contract/team control (some sort of WAR) * the general dollar value per WAR (about $8MM in free agency) less the total outstanding guaranteed contract dollars OR the projected arbitration model if the player isn't on a guaranteed contract. Joe Ryan's current value is 52.5MM on BTV about 3.8 WAR per year at $8MM/WAR (60.5MM in production over 2 years) and $8MM in salary (which is broken in BTV right now, should be about $15MM $6MM +$9MM). so the current surplus value for Joe Ryan would be 60.5-15 = $45.5MM Joe Ryan at the trade deadline would be about +31 figuring 60% of the season is over (1.5 WAR + 3.8 WAR)*8 - (2.5MM + 9MM). At the end of the year, it would be 3.8WAR*8 - 9MM = 21.4. That's assuming Joe Ryan has another full and excellent season. There is no chance the Twins get anything close to current value for Ryan at the deadline IMHO.
  3. bean5302
    Move over, Killer, we're missing Alex Kirilloff. Guaranteed unanimous 1st ballot HoF'er if only he was healthy. You can tell which games he was healthy for because he'll have a wRC+ of at least 150 in all of them. If his wRC+ is below 150, he was hurt for that game.
  4. bean5302
    Probably trade for and extend Ryan Fitzgerald to 2yrs $12MM now that he's been DFA'd.
  5. bean5302
    Tucker signed for $200-250MM less than predicted. Nobody in MLB wants to pay out big contracts right now so the Dodgers swooped in. The $60MM/yr thing is probably more like $40MM/yr with $20MM/yr for 4 years in deferrals or something like that.
  6. bean5302
    MLBTR predicted 11yrs and $400MM. Spotrac's Market Value was 12yrs at $498MM. The 4yr/$240MM deal probably has a massive amount of deferred money as well. I'd wager $80MM? So the Dodgers are signing Tucker at way, way under predictions says more about the rest of the league than the Dodgers.
  7. bean5302
    Ryan's value today +50MM. Ryan's value at the trade deadline +30MM. Ryan's value in the offseason +20MM. Ryan's value on March 1st if he gets hurt and needs TJ = 0MM It's a fools game to count your chickens before they hatch (target the trade deadline for value recovery). A good GM has a plan to either compete or to find out what they need to compete. Falvey is doing neither.
  8. bean5302
    Guy's team has missed the playoffs 4 of the past 5 years in one of the weakest divisions in sports all with declining attendance despite opening day payrolls of the highest in the division. All while being promoted, lol. 3 years ago we heard from former spokesman, Joe Pohlad, how status quo wasn't good enough. Making the playoffs wasn't good enough anymore. Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.
  9. bean5302
    Falvey never lets a reliever go back to the rotation. Duran and Jax both wanted an opportunity to start again. Jax was highly vocal about it. If Prielipp goes to the 'pen, that's it. He's a reliever for life with this organization. The aforementioned success stories are about letting a pitcher prove they can't make it as a starter (where they would have dramatically higher value) and move them the 'pen when they can't hold a rotation spot. Heck, a guy who gets pushed out of the rotation by a slightly better #5 is still worth more in trade value than a fairly high end relief pitcher.
  10. bean5302
    Baseball Savant shows Prielipp was throwing 94-95mph with a 4 seamer (touched 96), 92-95mph with a sinker, 86-89mph with the changeup and 81-87 with the slider. There was a lot of variance in Prielipp's pitch velo over his last 3 starts in AAA. Could be equipment related or him tiring down a little or just mechanics. Prielipp's walk rate was too high at AAA, but it was his first full year back after TJ. I expect him to show what he can do this year. In terms of stuff, the elite K rate dropped off in AA/AAA to merely excellent. Could Prielipp be the answer to a closer need? Sure. He "might" be a legitimate closer, but he has seems to have starter caliber stuff. A closer at his very best provides the same value as a #4 rotation arm. Prielipp could potentially replace Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez in the rotation with a small step forward. Or he could be totally exposed against MLB hitters. Forcing starters into the bullpen because you traded away your entire bullpen isn't a good strategy.
  11. bean5302
    Fangraphs talks about WAR and the limitations of player "Value" or how basing contracts on WAR is fraught with problems. i.e. Individual contributions and value depends largely on a team's performance as a whole. 1 WAR to a team which wins 88 games is worth dramatically more than 1 WAR is worth to a team which wins 65 games. That's because extra revenue generation from playoffs is enormous. The impact to fan attendance and popularity between a 65 win and 66 win team is non-existent. If Falvey is trying to maximize lifetime WAR / value per dollar, then he's failing to grasp the inherent value of a competitive window. I do believe Falvey leans heavily towards the lifetime WAR per dollar spent metric. I also believe the Pohlads, as owners, tend to view the team in this manner as well because their position always seems closely tied to over .500 is the goal. Winning the division is the reach goal.
  12. bean5302
    It remains to be seen how Louie Varland will age. There are plenty of examples of short career starters who converted to relievers who flame out quickly. Tyler Duffey is a good one. I think Duffey is especially valuable as an example because it took a couple years to really start seeing value as a reliever once he converted. Jax took a couple years to become a dominant force as well, even if he was a solid reliever the year after his conversion. In the offseason after 2021, Falvey blew up the bullpen and backfilled innings with converted starters Jax, Duran, and to a lesser extent, Cole Sands. Duran is viewed as a major success; however, it was never explored whether or not he could handle a starter's workload. If Duran was deployed as a starter, he could potentially have been a Cy Young candidate. Certainly, Duran's production as a closer has been great. I'm still not sure it was a solution which worked out, but sacrificed something so much bigger. We'll see what happens in a vacuum. Roden could take a leap forward this coming season which would easily make the trade worthwhile for the Twins. Rojas had a very disappointing debut in St. Paul so that'll have to be watched.
  13. bean5302
    Berrios, Buxton, and Lewis have all been vocally unhappy with the front office. Buxton even filed a grievance against the Twins in 2018, before he was angry again with them in 2021 before the trade deadline. Falvey's front office has been linked to the "championship belt" awarded to the front office which is most successful at surpressing player salaries in arbitration. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/mlb-awards-championship-belt-during-arbitration-symposium.html https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/888513/2019/03/29/ready-to-strike-tomorrow-how-one-20-trinket-captures-the-strife-within-a-10-billion-industry/ Time and time again we see arbitration avoided with salary values well under projected for this club. I don't think that just happens out of the blue. There are business reasons to do it, but a one size fits all approach isn't appropriate in my mind anyway.
  14. bean5302
    Falvey's history is filled with the beat down of young players, and ruining relationships with his future stars. I mean, it's kind of a pattern. I'm not sure what he actually does well as the head of baseball operations.
  15. bean5302
    So it's okay for you to presume there will be a benefit? I don't buy the Twins need a Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana, Josh Bell, Joey Gallo type of a guy on the roster every year to help motivate the mostly veteran players on the 26 man roster.
  16. bean5302
    Arm overuse, intense focus on velocity, less cross training. Even high school kids are seeing UCL replacement surgery happening.
  17. bean5302
    Yeah, it's a claim and stash scenario.
  18. bean5302
    Ober and SWR get the phone slammed down if they're going to be the headliner. I'm not sure how well the Cubs value various Twins players, but they're going to be wanting a premium value player back.
  19. bean5302
    I don't know what source you're using, and I don't think you're using "scouting grade" data correctly. If Fedko and Rosario were excellent depth for MLB teams, they'd have been selected in Rule 5. They weren't. The rest of the league has spoken pretty strongly on that. Brandon Winokur was a mid-teens org level prospect (figure #300-500 overall in MLB) to start last year and he was barely able to hold his own in the low minors. He's got athleticism going for him and he's got some real ceiling. He'll be in his age 21 season and should be repeating High-A this year. There are a ton of those types of prospects in MLB. Quentin Young? A mid 2nd round pick in a weak draft who K'd 41% of the time in A-Ball? It was only 22 PA, and he would have probably been better off starting in Rookie Ball, but he was clearly outmatched in Ft Myers. Hopefully it was just a pressure thing and he's able to adjust and catch up this year. I couldn't find much corroboration to support your seemingly bullish positions on Twins prospects.
  20. bean5302
    No need to rush him at all. His performance and poise should dictate how fast he moves up the ladder in the system. His build up will probably limit him to 100 IP this year, similar to what we saw with Prielipp, I'm guessing.
  21. bean5302
    I don't think there are any 2026 rankings for the Twins out there yet. Prospects1500 came out with their 2025 list for the Twins in January last year, but I don't know how they roll those out. They've got like 3-4 teams done so far. MLB hasn't updated yet. Fangraphs has only 8 of 32 teams in their 2026 report right now.
  22. bean5302
    Joe Pohlad got probably got canned to deflect fan rage and probably as part of a negotiation with new minority owners as it's clear to everybody he's a non-starter when it comes to fan engagement. Dave St. Peter was given goals in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 to improve attendance before he was finally held non-accountable (still is constantly involved as an "advisor" from my understanding). I do not see any potential improvement in attendance without a World Series berth, though I would really love it to happen. The fans hate the Pohlads and they're actively taking it out on ownership. Baseball is dying in Minnesota. It's eye-opening attending a Minnesota United games and see how diverse and excited the fans are vs. a Twins game.
  23. bean5302
    Walker Jenkins is a legitimate high end prospect today. Not mid year last year or the beginning of last year. After Jenkins, there is a dramatic fall off to Culpepper, Tait, Emma types who are all in the 50-100+ prospect ranges. They're Tier 2 prospects right now. Every team in baseball has 10 Winokurs. Fedko and Rosario are non-prospects. They were left unprotected and ignored by 29 other teams in baseball.
  24. bean5302
    I get the impression Josh Bell is just a guy. He's a league average hitter at the tail end of his career. I don't know as he brings anything more than a guy like Trevor Larnach would bring in terms of leadership. Having a replacement level veteran who is in the twighlight of their career as a revolving door "leader" doesn't seem like a valuable thing to me.
  25. bean5302
    Has to have plate appearances with guys on base to hit home runs with guys on base... His OPS was higher with runners on than bases empty last year. His BB rate was higher with runners on and RISP. His K rate was lowest with RISP. Pitchers did their best to pitch around Wallner because the rest of the lineup was terrible.
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