bean5302

That's what you took away from my comment? I never said Wallner was a good outfielder. I just addressed your point(s) which aren't backed up by the stats I can pull. Injured all the time? Wanna go there? 2025 - 100G 2024 - 142G 2023 - 143G 2022 - 146G

Wallner .829 career OPS Larnach .726 career OPS See that "WAR" column? Pretty huge difference there. Wallner makes $760k with 4 more years of control, Larnach will make $5MM with 1 year of control. In addition, Wallner (despite the TD fan narrative which is pretty easy to debunk with data...) was better with runners on base last year than bases empty, and substantially superior to Larnach. Even with RISP you can see Wallner walked more and struck out less... because pitchers were desperate to pitch around him. Wallner is also much faster than the below average Larnach (26-27 ft/sec). Wallner's sprint speed was borderline center fielder level (28 ft/sec in prior years), and Wallner is neutral on the basepaths where Larnach has always been a below average base runner. Summary, Wallner is an elite max exit velo power fly ball hitter with 30HR+ annual potential, above average speed and a cannon arm under team control for 4 more years at league minimum. Larnach is a medium max exit velo, line drive hitter with 20HR potential, below average speed and an average to below average arm with just next year remaining under team control at 7x the cost of Wallner.

Larnach's "better" year was 0.2 fWAR and he's projected for a $5MM salary. Larnach has one year in his entire career where he wasn't a liability as a regular player for a good team, and even last year, it's not like you'd actually want him playing every day (1.4 fWAR). He's a league average bat at DH if he plays every day. He's a good hitter, and he can add some value as a platoon bat if he's totally shielded from lefties. A platoon bat DH still doesn't have much value, though. Okert got cut so while he was technically a reliever, he couldn't even stick out the whole season because of performance woes.

Matt Wallner is worth a top 5 org prospect from any team or a mid-rotation growing expensive arm like Jesus Luzardo. You're right about Larnach having no value, though. I will never understand why people group Wallner and Larnach together.

Ownership "your payroll ceiling is x" GM "okay, I'll plan based on the budget of x" You know. Like every single other business in America. Right now, if the Twins hold the course, their payroll projection is $89MM. Let say the payroll target was $50MM. No problem. Gotta drop $40MM of payroll. Buxton and Lopez need to be moved and replaced with pre-arb to arb1 players making $1MM or so. There, we're at $50MM or real close to it.

Walker Jenkins, Kaelyn Culpepper or Connor Prielipp. Probably the only two who are likely to be in consideration with an outside shot for Gabriel Gonzalez. In order to win RoY, the player is going to need to be called up and playing in the first couple months of the season. Jenkins is clearly the top prospect int he organization right now, and I could see the Twins calling him up quickly like what happened with Buxton. Culpepper is a SS. If the Twins sign somebody to man the SS position, Culpepper's shot for 2026 drops dramatically as there would be much less pressure to rush him to the big show. Prielipp having a full season last year, flashing some really outstanding stuff, and now hopefully having a full offseason to build up. He could be really great, and I'd be surprised if he wasn't considered for the opening day roster as he's already burning options. Gonzalez's ceiling is pretty limited, but the hit tool might be able to carry him well enough, and who knows what the front office is going to do? If a roster shuffle gets Gonzalez early season playing time, I think it's possible he could be a dark horse (Twins group anyway). I just don't see the rest of the group as having the upside or opportunity next year. We'll definitely see Emmanual Rodriguez on the roster next year as he's already burned 2 options. I think he starts on the opening day roster, to be honest, but I also think he's going to get absolutely eaten alive by MLB pitchers. I'd like to see the Twins trade him if they can.

Miranda looked like a solid every day 1B to me, until he didn't. The AAA struggles last year have evaporated any expectation of his career rebounding. It's a bummer how things turned out.

You know what I'd like to see to these articles? The writer's perspective on the Twins plan written up, and a link to it with a quick summary before the meat of the article. In this case, maybe Cody believes the Twins will aim for .500ish ball while retooling with a $100MM payroll. Or maybe each writer is assigned/chooses a scenario and bases their articles on that scenario. a) Twins are in it for a Championship in 2026 and will make drastic changes to make it happen. They're sticking to the $140MM+ range b) The Twins are willing to stay the course and keep the door open for a championship season if luck goes their way, but the payroll is cutting back to the $120-130MM range c) Twins are aiming for 75-80 wins, not great, but not a full blown rebuild and they'll stay in the low $100MM range. d) The Twins are entering a rebuild mode. Payroll will be under $100MM, but the Twins are still willing to hang on to some projectable team controlled guys. e) The Twins are absolutely blowing it up. Nobody's roster spot is secure. Anything goes. Payroll is under $80MM. Clearing the books and finding value to trade at the deadline (the Noah Syndergaard lottery ticket stuff) to turn into prospect pipeline material is the name of the game. The real strategy of the front office will make any of these articles more or less plausible and connect me (and probably other readers) to the article.

Buxtons' bat has stabilized in that wRC+ 130-140 range, well above what I expected from him. Over his past 6 seasons and 2,048 trips to the plate he's a .255/.319/.537 OPS .856 wRC+ 133 hitter. That reflects a much improved walk rate which came with experience. If Buxton had always been healthy, I still think he would have been a 5-6 WAR player year in and year out from age 25+, but depending on the defensive metric driving the WAR calculation, he might have been able to eek out a MVP consideration season. I think he'd be a borderline HoF candidate with about 45 WAR entering his age 32 season right now. All that said, there are a ton of players who were really great but never reached their career potential because of injury. Sad to see it happen, but it does.

Then it's Falvey's fault for drafting the wrong guys. Or envisioning the development strategy and hiring the coaches and development team to carry out that vision. It all comes back to Falvey. Guys who were written off and still get another big chance to break through are rare. If Rooker had been claimed by a different team who didn't already have an established corner outfielder hierarchy, for instance, do you think he would have gotten the consistent plate appearances or do you think he just would have been treated more like MiLB roster filler, and injury replacement (preferably short term) depth? Also, I get the impression people believe a player can just unlearn bad practices and change their entire approach to the game on a whim when there's an option better suited to them. Like, "change your stance" or "add a pitch" or "stop swining at bad pitches" etc. 5+ years in the Twins system learning the Falvey way is stickier than a couple months in the minors elsewhere. I guess my opinion is Twins development failures already have a remote chance of being given the opportunity to play because they've already been written off, if they do get an opportunity, it's not likely to be very long so they have to deliver immediately, and they've got to overcome 5+ years of bad practices instilled into them by the Twins.

It's a bit hard to take you seriously when you're comparing 16 year old Miguel Sano who was 6'3" and 185lbs at the time to 25+ year old Jose Miranda. Sano started 30 games between age 17-18 in the minors and never played there again as he bulked up and was no longer fit for the position. He went on to balloon to over 300lbs and Sano was moved as he grew out of each position he played. Jose Miranda was 24 for his debut and had already filled out. A poor runner with a weaker arm, (and the patented Twins coached rock hands) it was already established he was going to be stretched at 3B, but the Twins kept him there anyway when Miranda proved to be inadequate there. I don't recall either player complaining about the position they were playing. Does a player have to publicly complain when they're being deployed improperly? Seems to me any player complaints about position generates about 100 threads of fan rage around these parts.

Derek Falvey envisions the organizational strategy and asks coaches to implement it. Popkins did exactly what Falvey asked by reducing K's and focusing more on contact in 2024, and the results reflected that in an impressive fashion. It's Falvey's strategy which was flawed since it didn't play to the strengths of the players Falvey drafted and his team developed. Falvey is by far the biggest problem for this organization's on field performance.

Miranda was a 1B the Twins asked to play other positions. Was he mishandled? I think so. Regardless, it's not an excuse for Miranda to play poorly in AAA. I didn't see a legitimate reason not to outright him. Has his time as a Twins player ended? Maybe. He's probably a candidate to come back on a MiLB contract as I don't think there's going to be a lot of interest in him across the league.

Jeffers - Yes SWR - No, he's a reliever Bradley - Maybe? Lewis - Would never agree at a price point which would make sense (I hope). Keaschall - Too early IMHO. The upside is there and the Twins will have to pay for it, but there's a solid chance he turns into a pumpkin, too. Jenkins - Yes, at the right price.

They haven't. That was my point I didn't apparently connect well enough. It's one of the biggest complaints I have with the Pohlads as owners. They lie and say "The goal is to win a championship!" when in reality the goal from this group has always been "We want to be competitive" like they were running a hotel chain.

When I was looking at his play (mostly through metrics) I think DeBarge was holding his own at SS so it's pretty natural he plays up at 2B. Great news for him to win a Gold Glove! When it comes to scouting reports, nothing is inaccurate as defensive grades, haha. It's so difficult to separate how a player looks while fielding vs. how a player actually performs while fielding.

Agreed. Twins ownership has made an competitive amount of resources available, overall. Of course, ownership has also made lousy decisions on when to spend like the big cut after 2023. Most team owners are willing to open the wallets and double-down when it comes to the competitive window as a tool to increase revenues. What we don't know, and almost certainly never will is whether or not Falvey has asked for more and ownership has said no. Falvey is on record saying that hasn't happened, but those comments are not credible IMHO. The Mets spent $400MM last year and missed the playoffs. Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle, Milwaukee all spent fairly similar to the Twins. Boston, Houston, and the Yankees spent similar in percentage of revenue vs. payroll.

Sounds like you put your own spin on my aggregation of commentors and fans I've spoken with. Fans are angry at ownership. Am I wrong about that? I think my perception of that is correct. Fans also believe Derek Falvey is the biggest problem, not the manager, and they'd like the Pohlads to do their job and fire him. Again, I don't think I'm wrong about that. Some fans are all about hiring a Tom Kelly-ish manager who focuses on fundamentals with the idea the manager will transform a hapless, fundmental-less fielding group who haven't been using solid fundamentals for years into great fielders quickly. I might be misinterpreting this, but I don't think this is plausible. I agree a manager has the power to make a difference, but the difference is going to take time. It won't be immediately transformative. As for me, I'm mad because I feel ownership personally screwed me over. I also 100% believe even if there was a manager who existed who could change the direction of the franchise, Falvey would never have hired them because Falvey wants puppets. Still, from my perspective, it would have been nice to see a hire who wasn't an obvious crony.

Falvey never brings guys back. It's an admission he was wrong about a player's talent and his ego can't handle it.

I said the same thing about Hunter. No idea if he's any good as a manager. Nobody knows if there is a manager out there who would make a huge difference to the team. I sincerely doubt there's a manager who can implement organizational philosophy changes or take D+ fielders and transform them into B+ fielders. Or a manager with Spidey-sense who knows exactly when to pull a pitcher. Being well regarded and liked has no bearing on whether or not a manager is good. A good leader identifies opportunities to improve, gets buy-in from the team, and pushes the entire team in a more efficient direction. Sometimes kicking and screaming through rough transisions. Even if there was such a manager, Falvey wouldn't allow them the autonomy to exercise their philosophy. That said, fans were desperate for hope there would be a hint that could happen. Their unreasonable hopes were dashed.

The answer to this is "yes." There are thousands of players, including well known players who would like to have a contract with the Minnesota Twins. Especially rebound players. Going to a team without a lot of pressure in a mediocre division means there's a good chance I'll either be in the playoffs or traded to a team who is going to the playoffs. Veteran who is a long term, big dollar contract candidate? Absolutely not, but throw enough money at them, and most will take it.

Yes. I do think there's a good chance this organization will bring him back. Should they? Obviously not.

I think the article is totally logical. I think the article is also tone deaf because I believe it misses the point. Fans are angry because they already know Shelton isn't going to change anything. I don't think anybody is angry at Shelton. The fans are furious with the Pohlad family because fans know Falvey is the problem. Like many others, I believe Falvey thinks he's way smarter than everybody else with little evidence to support he's even on par with the median as a strategiest. There was some sort of desperate hope a change would be made which would indicate Falvey has finally been humbled a bit, that there was light at the end of the tunnel for this organization even with the incompetent Pohlads at the top. Shelton was absolute proof there is no change. This franchise is exactly what it has been, and headed in the very same direction as it was. I'm not an ex-player. I'm an ex-season ticket holder. I don't hate the Pohlads, I don't hate Shelton, and I don't hate Falvey. That said, I am furious with ownership because they're not doing their job as owners. They have very little true responsibility. Hold the front office accountable, provide resources to run the team. That's it. This ownership group absolutely refuses even the smallest iota of the former, and isn't particularly savvy on the later. I want to be able to attend games with an atmosphere again. To be able to share my love of baseball with others who are actually willing to experience it. I don't see that improving. There isn't any talent for understanding fans in the entire Twins organization from what I've seen. Too many mediocre front office employee experiences, no consideration for season ticket holders needs, not even asking the right *^*&^&*^ questions on surveys.

He is going to be a puppet. There is no question about that. Falvey made the hire because he knows Shelton will make a good puppet. Even looking back at managerial tendencies, Shelton is like a clone of Baldelli.

Torii Hunter didn't even want to begin the formal interview process with the Twins after initial discussion with Falvey.