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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    it's true. Fedko could add or subtract between 0.1 and 0.2 WAR per year over Outman based on the 25 PA they'll get, lol
  2. bean5302
    What this means is projection tools can't account for SSS or unexpected breakouts. It does not mean projection tools aren't worth noting. There's a reason projection tools exist. They cost money. Somebody is literally paying for that data.
  3. bean5302
    that was a lot of question marks. Lewis is not a good hitter at the MLB level without changing his approach. Lewis probably hasn't changed his approach yet. The journeyman roster filler guys who replaced him in the starting lineup are playing BETTER than could be reasonably expected.
  4. bean5302
    First off, Happy Birthday to Royce Lewis! Lewis was hyper aggressive when he came back from the IL. He's shown league average pitch recognition, though he's always tended to be aggressive at the plate. Honestly, he's struggled against fastballs in recent seasons. His timing needs adjustment as does his "new" plate approach. Lewis was not helpful to the team when he was demoted. The expected metrics also showed Lewis wasn't league average at the plate. If he hasn't made the adjustments he needs to make, and last time I checked, he hadn't, then he's not going to be substantially better than what the Twins have. What was the point of the demotion if not to get him right? Was there some belief that Gray and Kreidler were legitimate MLB starting caliber players? Also, where is Lewis needed? Lee is at 3B now (not that he's any good at it), the Twins are trashing Lewis' value moving him all over the diamond having him stand where different positions stand. He played 1B last night. Is he moving back to SS without playing it?
  5. bean5302
    They need to trade him if they're trying to make him a 1B.
  6. bean5302
    I saw that. Seems like the malice part probably came from the interpretation they attempted to flee the scene. An awful situation.
  7. bean5302
    This season's DaShawn Keirsey please stand up! Keirsey through June 4th, 2024 (called up just before then). a27 - 213PA - .302/.390/.538 OPS .928 wRC+ 135, 12.7% BB, 23.5% K, ISO .236 (Keirsey) vs a26 - 199PA - .287/.372/.561 OPS .933 wRC+ 134, 10.6% BB, 21.6% K, ISO .275 (Fedko) Projection tools have Fedko well below league average at the plate for good reason. He's 26 and he's moved very slowly through the minors with multiple hiccups along the way. A college draft pick who is going to make an impact typically takes 2-3 years. Fedko is in year 6. That's plenty of time to polish, polish, polish what talent a guy has. It takes more than polish to be successful at MLB, though. It takes talent. Both have to be there. His xwOBA in AAA is dramatically lower than actual wOBA, his EV is good for AAA, but projecting it to MLB puts him probably bottom quartile (88mph-ish). I don't have any problems playing Fedko 2x per week for 3 plate appearances or whatever Outman would get, but I don't see any real upside there.
  8. bean5302
    If guys are able to locate well, they aren't going to have high walk levels. It's the opposite for Hill who appears to have no command or even control. Hill feels like he's following a pattern. No idea where his stuff is going and low minors hitters will swing at junk. He's literally one of the elite worst pitchers in all of the minor leagues when it comes to walks. Spin rate is worthless if the mechanics used to generate that spin aren't repeatable and the pitcher has no idea where the pitches are going. Low minors hitters are already exposing his issues. Best case scenario, Hill seems a long way off.
  9. bean5302
    12K s in 13.1 innings is below leage average. 6 walks in 13.1 innings is bad. and that's why we don't use ERA to determine if a pitcher is good across a handful of innings. But hey, feel free to travel back in time and bet on Andrew Albers winning the Cy Young in 2013 after his first start or two.
  10. bean5302
    SWR was traded to the Blue Jays for cash.
  11. bean5302
    Not sure where this perception comes from, but I don't see anything suggesting Morris is good in short or long outings. In his last 11 outings, and 9.1 IP, Morris has 2 wild pitches, 1 hit by pitch, 5 walks and 5 runs allowed.
  12. bean5302
    Speaks volumes about how the entire league viewed him. Worth a waiver claim flier and that's about it. The Twins basically moved Toronto to the front of the claim list for a Snickers bar and a case of Gatorade.
  13. bean5302
    Lots of changes in the minors in recent seasons. 40 MiLB teams eliminated MLB full organizational roster down from 180 to 165 Different effort levels for pitchers More veteran/journeyman who are good in MiLB due to wage/living situation changes and increased signing bonuses.
  14. bean5302
    My biggest issue is he may very well not have the stuff. Lower minors hitters will chase 45 grade MLB stuff. Upper 90s velo alone is often good enough to get a pitcher through A+. AA sees an adjustment to that, and AAA hitters spit on a lot of bad pitches more aggressive, less experienced players try to force into play. It's hard to tell if a pitcher actually has "stuff" or if the hitters just aren't polished enough at the level so they're too aggressive chasing pitches which are easy for high end talent to lay off.
  15. bean5302
    3 singles, 2 walks and honestly an fielding error on Tristan Gray which allowed the 4th run to score on what should have been an inning ending double play. The announcer says it wasn't well played by Bradley because he didn't look back the runner at 3rd, but that was a guaranteed double play if Gray is actually in position or ready to field the ball. Gray with another fielding error leading to a run in the 6th. With a decent fielder out there, Bradley leaves with 6.0 innings and 3ER. Laweryson threw 7 of his first 8 pitches as fastballs and the White Sox jumped on them. His 6th pitch he served up an 83mph meatball changeup which got quickly deposited in the seats. Not gonna make it throwing 80% fastballs in this league. All that said, the Twins made Fedde look pretty good. The White Sox scattered 5 hits and a walk, and last time I checked, 0 runs doesn't win many games.
  16. bean5302
    Not sure what the Twins have Dasan Hill working on, but regularly walking 20-30%+ of hitters in A+ suggests he'll be absolutely annihilated at AA and AAA. There are 290 pitchers in A+ this year with 20.0+ innings pitched. He would be, literally, the WORST walk rate pitcher in the entire Northwest League. Dasan Hill's walk rate is the 13th worst at that level (bottom 5%).
  17. bean5302
    Josh Bell is in decline based on his historical pattern. His actual results this year are close to what you'd expect. Based on a 20% quintile Excellent/Good/Average/Below Average/Poor 1-5 scale, whatever you want to call it red/pink/gray/lt blue/blue. Red/pink gives way to pink/blue. His walk rates have declined, his power has declined, exit velos... all the signs are there. Doesn't mean he won't rebound a little in production, but considering he hasn't had actual results much above MLB average since 2022, I think it's a little optimistic to expect much from him.
  18. bean5302
    Martin was never going to sustain a 20.0% walk rate or a .387 BABIP given the thin line drive rates. Things are just regressing to where they should be. His xwOBA and actual OBA are right in line with each other now. Just have to see if he can sustain the overall line now or if it'll fade a bit more back to where it was in 2024. Just like Brooks Lee's xwOBA which is a dismal .272 suggests he's in for a world of regression. It takes 300 PA or so before things really get to a sample size large enough to feel some comfort. Lee's production through 225 is surprising considering the limitations in his plate approach and batted ball data.
  19. bean5302
    Too small of a sample size to take anything away from it. He only had 52 PA vs. lefties, and there are reasons to look at his big results vs. lefties as unsustainable.
  20. bean5302
    Morris results: Wild pitch. Single (Lee playing deep with a runner on 3rd... like why?) Strikeout Wild pitch Strikeout Hit by pitch I mean... Lee playing deep with nobody out and runners at 2nd and 3rd doesn't feel right to me, but 20/20 hindsight, I guess. The runner is out at first with nobody advancing worst case scenario there if Lee is playing the bag, and there's the potential throw out at home. Runner probably scores on Morris' second wild pitch anyway. In the end, Twins win!
  21. bean5302
    Simeon Woods Richardson isn't "only 25 years old." This is his 9th season of professional baseball. He's beyond his minor league control, and beyond all his MLB options. This isn't some college draft pick who had a setback in their first exposure to MLB. He doesn't miss bats when hitters swing, and hitters only swing when the pitch is in the zone because his stuff rarely fools hitters. That's not terrible for a sinker-baller whose game is to feast on bad contact by generating 50-60% ground ball rates, but Sim is an extreme fly ball pitcher. The profile is not sustainable. On top of that, Sim's velo and fastball started falling over at 70-80 pitches and he was frequently a 4.0 inning starter which isn't a starter at all. Successful relievers always have a plus pitch. They can narrow down their arsenal to their best 2-3 pitches and reach back for a little more velo maybe. In SWR's case? He doesn't have a single average pitch this year by movement and velo, let alone a plus pitch to get outs. Doesn't have the velo, doesn't have the movement, doesn't have the deception, generates tons of fly balls... that's not a great profile for a reliever, either.
  22. bean5302
    Lots of hard contact? Check Low K rate? Check Medium/high walk rate? Check Below average stuff across the board? Check Yeah, I'll pass on SWR #2
  23. bean5302
    While it's great Sim was able to get balls to inexplicably find gloves instead of seats, his metrics have always suggested he was living on the edge and he was overdue for this kind of regression. His fans tend to point to what I consider a completely broken metric (bWAR/rWAR). My opinion is based on 2024 Nola vs. Berrios who had largely identical ERA, ERA+, RA9, yet had massive differences in WAR. I've discovered nonsensical WAR values in Baseball Reference previously only to see him adjusted in subsequent years due to positional value duplication, etc. Buxton's 2017 is a good example where I believe his WAR value has been adjusted/reduced 2x over the years due to calculation errors and adjustments. Baseball Reference made a change to pitcher WAR value in recent years, and I really don't care for it. In any case, Sim doesn't have any good pitches and he can't throw strikes or they'll get destroyed. That's not a recipe for a pitcher with sustainable success built into his profile, and that has ALWAYS been SWR's profile. Aside from that, last time I checked, you can't substitute his lucky performances from previous years into current games, and the current games are the ones the Twins are playing. If you want to trot an 8 ERA guy out there, I think you'll be amongst the "nobody wants to see that" group. Perhaps there are a cluster of 0.001% die hard Sim fans who believe he's going to suddenly start getting results again.
  24. bean5302
    There are going to be a lot of really PO'ed fans. I mean REALLY PO'ed. Great job, Pohlads.
  25. bean5302
    He's holding his own on the season in total, but quickly regressing to the player he has been. First 95 PA = .333/.484/.431 OPS .915 Next 93 PA = .205/.247/.295 OPS .542 Defensively, he's only been playable in left field.
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