bean5302

People like referencing Tampa Bay, but would never accept the methodology the Rays employ. We wouldn't even be talking about a Buxton extension. He wouldn't even have gotten an offer from the Rays because every team in baseball would know he was going to be traded. Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Sano, Donaldson (who wouldn't be on the team to begin with) would all be on the open trade market. At least 3 of the 5 would be gone. Also, the Rays were miserable for a decade while they built up their farm system and no, they're not "always a contender" as they finished 2014-2017 under .500 every year. The Rays have an unorthodox approach similar to Oakland, but the Rays' have been better at developing pitching than the A's, and the Rays seem to have a little more payroll flexibility when they need it.

Make it 100 losses and I'll agree even more.

I understand your skepticism, which is why I started looking into Escobar's speed, etc. Andrelton Simmons has lost more than a step or two as he's approached and moved into his 30s. It happens frequently. In Escobar's case, no quantifyable physical decline in the stats showed up. If he's just as fast as he was, and his arm is just as strong as it was and he's actively been playing on that side of the infield, moving him back to shortstop doesn't seem far fetched.

Because Eduardo Escobar was considered a glove first shortstop when the Twins got him for Liriano, he grades out as a career average shortstop (UZR/150 +2.4), and his speed and arm as as good as ever. Gardy gave the starting shortstop job to defensive wizard Pedro Florimon and Molitor gave the job to 1 year wonder Danny Santana not because Escobar wasn't capable of playing shortstop, but because the Twins, in their infinite wisdom, believed more in Florimon and Santana being MLB caliber players. Escobar forced his way into starting and was established at 3B before Polanco was called up. Polanco cannot play 3rd base and Molitor didn't think he could play SS, but the front office wanted Polanco tested and they desperately wanted him to improve there. Escobar was viewed as a short term asset so he was traded to Arizona, who didn't need a shortstop so they played Escobar at 3B. Meanwhile, Polanco is one of the worst starting shortstops to play at the MLB level in the past 20 years (career UZR/150 -11.0). Escobar just hasn't been needed at SS is what it boils down to.

From the leaks I saw, the total incentives brought the contract above $100MM total. To me, that says Buxton probably was going to absolutely max out around $18MM / year with all incentives. The leaks were pretty solid that Buxton agreed to 7 years $80MM in guaranteed ($11.4MM / year), but the incentive package wasn't close. FWIW, no teams in MLB wanted Buxton bad enough to really bend the Twins' ears and the Twins were openly shopping him before the trade deadline. That should speak volumes about how other teams view Buxton.

I wouldn't agree Buxton is "average" at the plate at this point. He's been well above average for the past 3 years now. I think I'd expect him to be wRC+ or OPS+ 120ish right now. It's substantial, but certainly not great or elite.

Sinking fastballs don't generate a lot of strikeouts by their very nature. While the article focuses on Stroman's .294 AVG against and .426 SLG against, MLB hitters are much better against fastballs than off speed pitches. Berrios' 4 seam fastball has similar statistics to Stroman's sinker, for example. It's the offspeed and breaking pitches which make or break almost all starters in MLB. Stroman is an excellent pitcher who has only gotten better. He's not an "Ace" but he's a great #2 and certainly should be considered superior to Berrios at this point.

It doesn't matter if Verlander is a Cy Young caliber pitcher IMHO. No team is going to sign Verlander to the $40MM / year Scherzer is going to make. That's Cy Young caliber money. Verlander is going to sign for #2 starter money like Stroman, but for 2-3 years. The other question is whether or not Verlander would play for Minnesota. The answer is maybe. The Twins are going to have to make some splashes to show they're serious about contending. If they make a real effort to sign other players and shore the team up, yes, I believe an aging Ace looking for the WS would come here.

Verlander isn't an innings eater? He pitched over 200 innings for 12 of the past 13 years he played 2007-2019. Nobody pitches more innings than Verlander.

Most people view him as a good, not great player who is always hurt in my experience. Buxton has never even been elected to an All Star Game. Twins fans are often crowning Buxton as MVP by finding a stat website which values him the most and they multiply Buxton's SSS to get to a nice pretty number as if it was guaranteed Buxton's production wouldn't change as the scouting reports on his plate approach gets out there. Both former MLB players, Carlos Pena and Harold Reynolds believe Buxton should have signed already for the 7 years $80MM (ignoring the incentives). If the Twins offered some of the contracts to Buxton I've seen floating around on the site, they'd be tripling what any other team in baseball would pay Byron.

The Twins appear totally committed to Lewis at shortstop. Lewis talked about it in an interview mid season. Palacios did well defensively after a rusty start and based on his overall performance through August, he's totally ready at the plate. Palacios did scuffle in September quite a bit and I'd think the Twins might have called him up had he forced their hand by pushing another .820 OPS+ month through the end of the AA season. Depending on how the Twins do in the offseason, if they're rebuilding, I wouldn't mind seeing Palacios and Gordon platoon shortstop just to give them a chance.

I spent quite a bit of time looking at the physical and athletic stats for Escobar recently. He really hasn't lost even a single step. I just don't see a reason why he wouldn't be able to cover shortstop adequately. I don't think he'd be a gold glover or anything, but he'd undoubtedly be better than Polanco was.

I'd be more in favor of signing Eduardo Escobar and sticking him at shortstop because I believe his physical tools will still play there since his sprint speeds, 90 foot splits and arm haven't deteriorated at all. Mlbtraderumors forecasts Escobar at 2 years and $20MM. Sounds about right.

Mlbtraderumors reported like 15 scouts were at a Verlander showcase recently. The Twins were not among the teams listed. Verlander threw all his pitches, they all looked good and his fastball peaked in the high 90s. I think Verlander will decline the QO and get 2-3 years at $45-65MM. I think he's guaranteed to get more than $18.4MM on a one year deal at this point so there's no reason to accept the QO.

It feels like there have been about 5 articles about the guy... He doesn't make a significant improvement to the Twins. They have the back end of the rotation covered already. I guess people are excited at the potential of winning 75 games instead of 73 this year?

Kershaw is very interesting, but primarily for the speculation on what the Dodgers are really thinking. The only thing I can believe right now is they're intent on working out an extension prior to free agency and for less than the $18.4MM per year. Can anybody see Kershaw pitching elsewhere? I really can't. Verlander's agent will be making phone calls and judging interest behind the scenes on the 3+ year deal Verlander seems to be looking for and if teams are interested, I'd expect Verlander to opt out. If not, I'd expect Verlander to take the QO.

What is this absolute obsession on Twins Daily with a medicore starter?

The Rockies were not going to make Gray a QO because it's obvious he'd accept it and he's not worth $18.4MM / year. I'd expect Gray might be in that $12MM / year range for 2-3 years in free agency. Qualifying offers are only designed to be made to All Star caliber players so players are rarely expected to accept the offer. Since little is known about how the Twins really plan to proceed, it's tough to gauge how much the QO might impact the Twins' free agency search. The QO compensation pick was reduced quite a bit in 2017 as it became obvious to the MLBPA and players the 2012 QO design was significantly reducing interest and contracts for fringey QO recipients. These days, it's not nearly as big of a deal unless the signing team is also in the luxury tax world. It gets pretty rough at that point.

December 1st is the expiration of the CBA. It may impact the signings, but recipents of the QO only have 10 days to accept or decline the offer.

The mentality the Twins cannot afford a player isn’t supported by the stadium value, metro or overall market size of the Twins. Joe Mauer received one of the largest contracts in baseball when he was extended and it never impeded their payroll. Also, if Buxton was healthy, he wouldn’t be living high on the SSS MVP per game level he had this past season. Buxton would be a perennial All Star, but I don’t believe he’d have any MVPs. That said, it’s hard to argue what teams are forking out to secure perennial All Stars. Harper, Machado, Arenado… none of them are as stable as Buxton because Buxton creates as much defensive value as offensive value. Of those names, only Harper is a threat to outproduce Buxton overall in a full season. It makes it difficult to argue Buxton wouldn’t encroach $30MM territory if he was playing full seasons. His free agency age would limit his contract duration to a max of probably 8 years. As it is, Buxton neither has the durability, nor the full season performance to justify more than a couple years or $20MM per season on the open market. Fans on this site will multiply Buxton’s WAR by $8MM and say thats the going rate for production; however, that’s not what teams “buy” WAR at. They aim to purchase at $6MM. Buxton is a 3 WAR player at his typical half season. On the open market as a hypothetical free agent, Buxton gets 3yrs, $48MM right now. Outside of Twins Territory, among fans and I suspect front offices, people aren’t nearly as enamored with him and don’t view him as some sort of hybrid prospect looking to turn the corner. MLB teams are all very concerned with durability.

One of the most difficult things about catchers is trying to figure out how to grade their defense. When Mauer was healthy, he was elite at controlling the run game. Molina was legendary. Posey was good. Catcher framing and pitch framing was in its infancy when Mauer was in his prime, but as I recall, he was mediocre, often getting the high calls, but not the low ones. There's also significant deviation between the metrics on different sites. Overall, Posey would be legendary, Molina is average and Mauer was average, but didn't have the opportunity to hone the skill.

I definitely want the Twins to trade Buxton, I haven't used the tool, though. Been short on time.

Donaldson had an unbelievably poor luck year in 2021. There's just nothing in his batted ball profile which would indicate he wasn't an elite hitter. The guy should have put together a 4-5 WAR season with a wRC+ in the mid 140s. Sometimes, luck isn't on the players side. Selling low on him would make the front office look dumb indeed.

Meh. Limited control, gives up a lot of hits. $1.2M salary. The K rate has always been much lower in MLB than the minors. I just don't see the need for Cotton, at all.

Miley hasn't had an xFIP below 4.00 since 2014 and his career ERA and xFIP are right in line with each other. Though,that may actually be the best starter on the roster right now, haha.