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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Bullpen can't save a team when they enter the game in the hole with no additional runs from the bats. Can't wait to see who all draws the long straws out of Baldelli's cup to bat tonight. Baldelli should probably draw lottery numbers. Just like the Twins lineup, no idea who's up to bat and what position they play next!
  2. bean5302
    AL Central Ranks: Starters KCR 10 GS, 62.0 IP, 1.60 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 3.16 xFIP = 1.6 fWAR CLE 10 GS, 50.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.67 xFIP = 1.1 fWAR CHW 10 GS, 51.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.40 xFIP = 0.9 fWAR DET 10 GS, 53.1 IP, 4.89 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 4.43 xFIP = 0.3 fWAR MIN 8 GS, 38.1 IP, 5.17 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 4.03 xFIP = 0.3 fWAR Relievers CLE 38.0 IP, 1.18 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 3.87 xFIP = 0.6 fWAR DET 39.0 IP, 1.38 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.91 xFIP = 0.3 fWAR MIN 31.2 IP, 1.71 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 3.70 xFIP = 0.1 fWAR KCR 27.0 IP, 4.67 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 5.45 xFIP = 0.1 fWAR CHW 33.1 IP, 4.86 ERA, 5.82 FIP, 4.94 xFIP = (0.5) fWAR Batting CLE .268/.329/.402 .731 OPS wRC+ 115 = 2.0 fWAR KCR .245/.303/.432 .735 OPS wRC+ 107 = 2.1 fWAR DET .214/.290/.334 .624 OPS wRC+ 83 = 0.8 fWAR MIN .181/.289/.288 .577 OPS wRC+ 74 = 0.3 fWAR CHW .190/.267/.303 .570 OPS wRC+ 68 = (0.3) fWAR
  3. bean5302
    While the direct cause/effect relationship between UCL tears and velocity hasn't been proven, the direct relationship between velocity and stress on the arm and elbow have been proven. There are so many variables out there it's hard to get enough concrete, pure, data. How many 6'0" tall pitchers with similar builds and 93mph fastballs vs. 94mph fastballs are out there to compare? It's funny how much quality research has gone into this vs. how quickly we see half-hearted studies and datasets published and referred to as gospel on other stuff (like salt intake, alcohol or coffee consumption) The question which will eventually be answered by MLB teams is in regard to value. Performance vs. velocity vs. durability. Does that 1mph increase cost you 1 start per year, 5 starts per year or 10 starts per year. How much performance did you gain for how much time did you lose? 99mph 20 starts, 2.80 ERA, 115 innings = ??? WAR 97mph 25 starts, 3.00 ERA, 150 innings = ??? WAR 95mph 28 starts, 3.20 ERA, 168 innings = ??? WAR 93mph 32 starts, 3.40 ERA, 200 innings = ??? WAR
  4. bean5302
    As DH: 2024 - Twins wRC+ 74 (28th) 2023 - Twins wRC+ 111 (11th) 2022 - Twins wRC+ 120 (6th)
  5. bean5302
    Margot will absolutely, 100%, not stay there. He's a below average hitter. Always has been, and he's not getting any younger. Seeing Margot in the lineup all the time has been exceptionally frustrating for me. The results have been there, but that's been luck, not methodology.
  6. bean5302
    Julien is an easy out if the pitcher can truly hit their spots. Julien knows it, and the pitchers know it. Julien's K rate was the same as Wallner's last year because Julien doesn't swing at pitches he knows will turn into whiffs or weak popups and grounders that are guaranteed outs. He's better off hoping it gets called a ball. The problem for pitchers is if they're off by a couple inches into the zone, Julien will crush it, and if they're off a couple inches outside, it's a guaranteed ball and Julien will take the walk. Julien's methodology is unique and on the edge of viability, but it was very successful last year. There's a good chance it will continue to be successful because it's just a game of inches, and Julien will get opportunities since pitchers are not perfect.
  7. bean5302
    Another empty stadium experience last night. It wasn't "great" weather, but I've been to games where it's been quite a bit worse. Vendor staff were getting big cuts in the 4th inning. I think the fans who were there were pretty engaged though. There was some heart. Those extremely expensive to produce Twins fridge magnets were gone by the time I got to the game at start time. Can't be handing those $0.50 giveaways out to just anybody who buys a ticket, you know. No good TV contract. No fans in the seats despite population density increasing in the area. Giveaway fails. Weak season ticket holder benefits. Pre/post game entertainment options around the stadium struggling. Skyrocketing parking prices and transportation issues rising. The struggles in fan engagement are impacting the payroll and player quality on the team. Dave St. Peter is increasingly looking like the weakest link in the organization to me. Walking a couple blocks from the stadium can get you street event parking at $3.00/hr. Worked out well for me!
  8. bean5302
    Dobnak is not on the 26 man roster and didn't pitch at all last night. :D
  9. bean5302
    Pitch clock not relevant based on current study data. Velocity is absolutely proven to be the key factor in regard to elbow stress. Biomechanical studies have proven it. There is still "sticky stuff." Rosin and sweat = very sticky. Tighter grips on the baseball does increase forearm stress. Aaron Nola got 7 years and $172MM. Yoshinobu Yamamoto got 12 years and $325MM. There were a group of free agents this year who really overplayed their hands, IMHO. All that said, find me the high school pitchers throwing 4-5 pitches these days that teams could draft if they wanted to. The standard starting pitching prospect these days has 3 pitches. The emphasis on developing pitchers even down into high school has been velocity to get drafted, velocity to succeed later. It used to be more focused on more quality pitches to keep hitters off balance, more command, control and deception to succeed.
  10. bean5302
    Are you sure the computer is right down to the millimeter? Even down to a centimeter? You'd expect calls at the very edges of the zone to get closer and closer to 50/50, As you see here, the missed strikes (called balls) were within millimeters of being a true ball as recorded by the equipment. If the equipment is off by 1 cm (totally believable) then those were good calls. The low-center "ball" call was also within millimeters of being a true ball as recorded by the equipment. Miller did a really lousy job, but I don't have a problem with 3 of those balls as I don't think equipment used would be any more accurate.
  11. bean5302
    I hope the Twins don't deploy Miranda the way they deployed Martin. I'd like to see Miranda getting every day playing time. It'll be interesting to see how the Twins go about it.
  12. bean5302
    Baseball is entertainment. Spreadsheets are not entertaining to most people. Computers are not entertaining to most people. Sports fans love to blame the referees and umpires, and bad calls are especially engaging with the audience. A computer determining borderline calls is a disaster in terms of fan engagement. The only time umpires would be a problem would be if a team consistently was victimized by bad calls throughout a a full season. Also... how many of you know the names "Joe West" and "Angel Hernandez"? That's fan engagement, even if you think it's for the wrong reason. I would be for a challenge similar to the minors, but no need to announce it and the ball/strike call should be instant. The ump should just have a button to press and the call gets spoken to him. Walk off to the side a tick, then make the ball or strike call from the side of the plate. All the fans will pick up and know what's going on quickly. Say what you will about Manfred, but almost every rule change he's made over the past couple years has benefitted fans. The game is already so much better now than it was.
  13. bean5302
    Yes. It's too early for whining from a rational standpoint. That said, emotions aren't rational, haha. It's frustrating to watch the Twins struggle so much against the Guardians and parts of the team sputter so early. Honestly, I'm with @Squirrel when it comes to how much wind was knocked out of my sails by Lewis' injury. It was catastrophic to my excitement level. On the bright side, did you guys see that awesome infield grounder play by Julien? He really looked like a stud at 2B there. I was impressed as all hell watching it in the stands. Sprint towards 3rd and in, grab the slow grounder, spin 180* and fire dead on to 1B for the out. It was great. Optimal lineups? Well, here's what I'd wish for. vs. RHP starter 1. 3B Castro 2. 2B Julien 3. SS Correa 4. LF Wallner 5. DH Kirilloff 6. CF Buxton 7. RF Kepler 8. C Jeffers 9. 1B Santana vs. LHP starter 1. 2B Martin 2. 3B Castro 3. SS Correa 4. CF Buxton 5. DH Farmer 6. C Jeffers 7. LF Wallner 8. RF Kepler 9. 1B Kirilloff
  14. bean5302
    Falvey is already salivating... if only he could get his K rate up to 100%...
  15. bean5302
    I have to confess, these types of articles feel like a lot of work, and the guidance the team has provided on them actually drives that message home a bit. I haven't looked too deeply into it. Is there a youtube video or something which is kind of like a sped up/tutorial on how to create them you could share with people?
  16. bean5302
    The Twins were over .500 to begin Thursday. Two days later, the sky was falling... I've noted this in another thread, but great teams win 60% of their games (97 wins). terrible teams win 40% of their games (97 losses). Baldelli has been the most outspoken on the subject of strikeouts doing a 180* in the summer of last year. In early summer, he talked about the strikeouts being a problem. By late in the season, strikeouts were irrelevant. It doesn't take an expert to read between the lines and figure out Falvey doesn't feel like strikeouts matter. Now, strikeouts are not worse than any other kind of out. They're better than medium grounders with runners on, for instance. A swinging strike out provides a little extra for a runner trying to steal, the catcher can miss the ball and a strikeout can wind up with a guy on first, etc. What I don't think has been researched is how a bunch of strikeout prone hitters in the same line up cause a chain reaction which reduces overall offensive value. Pythagorean is not a good metric. It's nice compared to straight wins/losses, but it doesn't tell you the trend. 12-0-2-8-3-1-1-9-3-2 = 43 runs. Probable record? 4-6 <--Twins 4-5-5-3-6-2-1-4-5-5 = 40 runs. Probable record? 5-5 <-- Lower K/HR teams That's what I think
  17. bean5302
    Wallner would be better if balls weren't called strikes. He'll be fine. Not sure why people are all bent out of shape about it. Jeffers, Castro, Julien, Santana, Farmer, Margot, Vazquez, and Martin are all worse OPS wise to start this year.
  18. bean5302
    Luzardo is definitely a step above Berrios in terms of results. Berrios was an awesome workhorse (still is), but he's a #3 guy (bordering #2). Luzardo's a potential ace and his trade value on Baseballtradevalues reflects that to an extent, but even that value is probably much lower than what a team would pay. I'd say on the open market, Luzardo will project at 20pts higher than his listed value. That's why I tossed Ober in as a likely ask from the Marlins. Solid pitcher. Tons of control left, and he'll stay cheap due to the Twins misusing him by burying him in the depth charts at every opportunity. In the meantime, Brooks Lee gets the Marlins a highly hyped middle infielder prospect near MLB ready as he's going to get, and a potential starting MLB CF by the end of the year. Lots of control. Minimal costs, not a huge loss in terms of the rotation. TD waxes poetically about Pablo Lopez every time his name is mentioned, but Luzardo is better than Lopez in terms of results the past 2 years. The durability concerns are all that's holding him back. Again, this is all hypothetical because I don't think the Twins would make the deal, and I also don't think Falvey should make this type of deal if he wants to be employed next year.
  19. bean5302
    Baseballtradevalues.com Luzardo = +62 Lee = +25, Ober = +23, Rodriguez = +20 Miami will absolutely demand a high value prospect or solid cost controlled pitcher back in the exchange. Twins' options are Varland or Ober. Or Joe Ryan would probably drop the 3rd prospect from Emmanuel Rodriguez to Gabriel Gonzalez, but again, I suspect the Twins would be loathe to part with fan favorite Ryan as part of the exchange. Luzardo's xFIP matches his ERA and FIP. Ober's xFIP is dramatically higher suggesting he's just been lucky with his ERAs. Not sure if this year's 54.00 ERA start is reflective of that. In any case, outside a Twins fan's perspective, Ober is not near the same league as Luzardo (who has been as good or better than Pablo Lopez the past 2 seasons a24/a25).
  20. bean5302
    Agreed. It sure looks like the Twins kicked him to the curb hoping to court a better TV deal and it clearly didn't work out. Dave St. Peter looks like he might need to move into a more limited role to me.
  21. bean5302
    Rooker will rake again this year, but I'd bet pretty hard against the MVP and HR record still hahahah.
  22. bean5302
    Not really. Walk in one gate, walk out. Next ticket. Walk in the next gate, walk out. You could go with a group of entrepreneurial types.
  23. bean5302
    Luzardo - Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, Emmanuel Rodriguez I suspect you don't like that price tag much.
  24. bean5302
    Situational batting average (runners on, bases empty, runners in scoring position, etc) isn't significantly different. If the Twins go 6 for 10, today, their team average will jump to .211. It's just a matter of time.
  25. bean5302
    I expect the Twins bullpen to be great this year. Duran being out hurts right now, but after that, no biggie.
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