bean5302

The Twins pitching coaches may well be working with Henriquez to throw pitches he doesn't normally throw or throw certain pitches (changeup) more often or change the approach by throwing pitches in different zones. If Henriquez doesn't develop the changeup and prove he can throw it often, he will not be a viable starter. Best to figure out what he brings to the table. Wes Johnson challenged Balazovic to throw his changeup far more frequently and in different counts last year and there were plenty of growing pains. MLB pitchers need to be able to throw multiple pitches at any count and for strikes or batters can wait for the right situation and know what's coming to punish it. Unless you're Mariano Rivera, that ends poorly for the guy on the bump. To me, age is often irrelevant, like in this case. Henriquez is in his 5th year of minor leagues (4 years of competitive professional pitching) so it was required he be added to the 40 man to protect him. His promotion schedule wasn't particularly aggressive seeing only 1 mid-year promotion in his career.

Strotman was always a toss in piece in that trade. Expectations he was a valuable prospect were unreasonable in my opinion. When he was acquired from Tampa, I think a lot of members of the site saw the sparkly ERA/FIP and ignored the reasonability of that success and projectability of a guy who was issuing free passes like that. Last year Wes Johnson wanted Strotman to throw strikes instead of trying to pick at the zone because a 5+ BB/9 innings in the minors isn't going to be playable at the MLB level, but once Strotman started throwing strikes, hitters tee'd off on his pitches. This year, hitters are driving Strotman's pitches pretty hard again and it's hard to tell if the .400 BABIP is a function of luck or just predictability. He's got a 50% GB rate (not reliable) on Fangraphs so there's reason to think he could eat some middle innings if he worked more on inducing weak contact and less on chasing strikeouts... but ahem... pitch-to-contact philosophies have their limits, too. Considering how desperate the Twins were for pitchers at times this season and the fact he's already on the 40 man, it seems like Strotman is a leading candidate to clear 40 man roster space.

Maeda will not return this year, in my opinion. The article the OP linked wasn't up to date at the time on the latest from Maeda which was this: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220107/p2g/00m/0sp/057000c so reposting your own article as a source is pretty weak. A quick visit to any of the roto news pages like this one 4/29/22 https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/mlb/player/20580/kenta-maeda (paraphrase, on track for September without setbacks) or this 6/8/22 https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=12051 (won't even start throwing off the mound until July and this year is iffy) If you're going to post an article... at least do a tiny little bit of research.

Pitch framing doesn't seem to be a stat which can be valuable in small sample sizes. Jeffers has always been considered a good pitch framer, and he always had a reputation as a good defensive coming up through the system. Realmuto was +3 in 2020, +4 in 2021 and -1 this year so far. Looking at catchers with 1000+ pitches received 2020 - 23rd of 53 = +1 run (max +5, median 0, min -5)* only 500 pitches 2021 - 16th of 59 = +2 runs (max +10, median +1, min -18) 2022 - 6th of 17 = +2 runs (max +4, median -1, min -4) Jeffers is consistently a bit above average. He's not great at framing, but it appears his value is being inflated by small sample sizes looking at this year alone. The league will improve and Jeffers is likely to adjust a bit as well, the combination diminishing his defensive value. He's well below average at caught stealing rate, which is largely a function of pop time, arm strength and throw accuracy. Jeffers has been absolutely miserable 2 of his 3 years in MLB at controlling the run game, and he was a tick below average last year as well. It's clear Jeffers has a reputation of being easy to run on. In terms of passed balls, Jeffers is middle of the pack for the 27 catchers who have 1,000+ innings caught from 2020-2022 and he's among the best for wild pitches allowed. Basically, Jeffers is a well above average receiver, but poor thrower. He's an average-ish defensive catcher in MLB with a very poor bat. In terms of Jeffers' batting performance vs. his peers with 500+ plate appearances since 2020. wRC+ 83 = 22nd of 29. (133 max, 94 median, 71* min) *technically, Austin Hedges is wRC+ 41, but he's 30 points lower than everybody else. It's inexplicable how he's still playing, especially at $4MM/yr. Ooffffda.

Sanchez has been much better than advertised behind the plate this year so his actual performance makes me care a lot less about his performance reputation. The concept of defense first or offense first for positions has been (and should be) left in the past. It's about total production at whatever position a person plays. If the defense is passable, the offensive upside more than makes up for it. I'll take Gary Sanchez 7 out of 7 days vs. Drew Butera. Jeffers topics have been pretty common lately. He's been a bit unlucky, but it's becoming pretty clear Jeffers is not going to be an average or better asset at the plate, and Jeffers is defensively mediocre at catcher. I'll still suspect he gets a lot of the starts until at least the All Star break. If he hasn't improved by then, he'll get slapped with the permanent backup catcher title and the Twins will focus on identifying a starter for the future.

Buxton is performing right where I'd expect him to perform. 5-6 WAR across a full season. Right now, Buxton has played in 46 of 63 games placing him at about a 120 game pace this year. More than I would have expected, but I'll happily take it!

Arraez's knees should be a lot less of an issue if he strengthens his legs and avoids keeps his weight under control. His sprint speed hasn't shown any improvement this year, but he does seem a little lighter seeing him in person. It's fun to watch him at the plate this year, especially after he struggled down the stretch last season. I felt the Twins were likely going to move him this offseason, and I still think they would have without the lockout condensing the offseason down. I'm a big fan of him, but I don't think he's an elite player like Gwynn and Carew were if Arraez doesn't increase his speed. There's also the issue of where he plays. He'll never get respect at 1B or DH without a huge influx of power you wouldn't expect from his smaller size. Playing 2B, Arraez is likely capable of being a perennial All Star.

Yes. I think it's clear the Twins front office saw Jeffers as a potential starting catcher but weren't 100% banking on it. If the Twins had confidence in Jeffers, they don't take on $9MM for Sanchez; they keep Rortvedt or sign a less expensive, obvious backup. They gave Jeffers at bats because they are hoping he'll perform. He's not performing. They'll continue to give him opportunities until the sample size is big enough to largely close the books on him and choose a different catcher as their primary (probably Sanchez).

I think it's clear the Twins didn't expect Jeffers to perform well, especially after last season. The front office wouldn't have gone out and traded for an arbitration eligible, fairly expensive catcher like Sanchez if they expected Jeffers to perform. The front office clearly did hope Jeffers would make the necessary adjustments at the plate, though, otherwise they wouldn't be giving him so many starts. Unfortunately, it does look like Jeffers' time as a starter is ticking down. I've made my previous prediction that Jeffers will have until the All Star Break before the Twins relegate him to expected career backup or MiLB roster filler. The Twins will likely move to sign Sanchez to a middle term 3-ish years contract if Jeffers doesn't turn it around. That said, it certainly does look like Jeffers has been unlucky so far so there may be a nice swing back in his favor.

Archer's been on a 4 inning, 80 pitch cap most of the season.

Archer's career numbers. ERA 1st time through = 3.13 2nd time through = 3.94 3rd time through = 4.32 FIP 1st time through = 3.34 2nd time through = 3.59 3rd time through = 4.22 xFIP 1st time through = 3.36 2nd time through = 3.62 3rd time through = 3.93 There is a noticeable drop off between the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, but as you start looking at the TTO's, you start getting into smaller and smaller sample sizes. Archer's xFIP 3rd time through is still better than a lot of middle relievers. The whole blanket 3rd time TTO movement is a whole lot of BS as far as I'm concerned. The end of the world is not guaranteed if a guy throwing a good game with a low pitch count goes back out there.

Didn't notice it on the menu. There's no tandoor oven there so probably not?

Nick Gordon: SS Fielding Metrics (extremely small sample size of 23 games) Fielding Pct = .962 vs .972 avg UZR/150 = +14.3 OAA = +1 RF/9 = 3.88 vs 3.84 avg DRS/yr = -10 Rtot/yr = -10 CF Fielding Metrics (small sample size of 50 games) Fielding Pct = 1.000 vs. .992 avg UZR/150 = +5.3 OAA = -2 RF/9 = 2.66 vs. 2.56 avg DRS/yr = 0 Ttot/yr = -12 Gordon's sprint speed this year is 28.2 ft/sec. He's not a plus CF in terms of speed, but he's hardly pressed for range in the position. Buxton is 29.0 ft/sec this season. Celestino 27.5 ft/sec, Kepler 27.9 ft/sec, Lewis 28.4 ft/sec. When it comes to SS, Gordon is faster than average and just as fast as the other potential shortstop options like aforementioned Lewis and the rest of Correa 27.0 ft/sec, Palacios 27.9 ft/sec, and the oft mentioned Polanco 28.2 ft/sec. I advocated for seeing Gordon at SS last year in an extended role, but the Twins gave him virtually no shot and his many critics on this site had already written him off. I don't know if Gordon can hold down SS in a larger sample, but so far, he's been adequate. In CF, he's also been adequate.

This was a really great game to watch at Target Field today. It's the first game I've watched where the excitement and the ambiance of the stadium felt normal. In other news, Hot Indian's chicken tikka masala is solid. Honestly, 7.5/10. Rice was a little undercooked and the curry could have been a touch creamier, but they didn't skimp on the garam masala. It's very mild so add the pepper sauce if you like a touch of heat. I'm guessing their chana masala is going to be good based on the tikka masala. I think the Red Cow sliders are probably the best thing (excluding Club levels) at the game. Can't say the chips add anything at all to the sliders, though.

I'm talking about once Lewis is healthy and back on the field. I'd trade him the moment the Twins can get a decent offer.

Yes. It's possible for a great pitcher to throw a clunker. It just doesn't happen often. If you crunch the numbers in the playoff series, the team with the best top 3 starters wins the series at a very high rate.

Range Factor is what we've got. If you have something better, I'd be happy to know about it.

Gordon is doing exactly what you'd expect from a super utility player. His bat hasn't been a black hole and his defense has been solid overall. In regard to the emergency-only SS option, Gordon has handled shortstop well so far in extremely limited opportunities. Almost every defensive metric shows Gordon as average to plus at SS. Granted, those metrics are pretty worthless with their sample size, but for a guy the Twins seemed hell bent to avoid, he's looked okay.

Because the playoffs are a different game than the regular season. In the playoffs, the back end rotation arms don't even pitch. There aren't rest days and depth is often irrelevant. Across a regular season, 3 starters worth a #3 spot can get you into the playoffs, but once a team gets to the playoffs it goes: Team A #1 vs. Team B #3 Team A 1-0 Team A #2 vs. Team B #3 Team A 2-0 Team A #3 vs. Team B #3 Team A 2-1 Team A #4 vs. Team B #4 Team A 3-1 Team A #1 vs. Team B #3 Team A 4-1 series over.

RF/9 is the best I think we have to work with for defensive value in the minors and the RF/9 coincides with Martin not being as fast as most center fielders or having a plus arm. The idea behind RF is (x) number of balls are hit to center field so the putouts for center fielders should be the same. As I noted, using MiLB general numbers is problematic as different leagues tend to play very differently (pitcher friendly, batter friendly, experience level, etc). That's why I'm comparing Martin's performance in the very same league as the other center fielders. Center field was Martin's second most played position at Vanderbilt, where he also played some left field. It's not a foreign position (unlike SS, which he's trying and failing to handle).

Earlier today I posted that Lewis was untouchable as I expected the knee was a minor thing... my opinion is 180* at this point.

Martin routinely grades out at 50-55 speed in scouting reports and that's awfully fringey for CF. A good center fielder should be 60+ speed (plus speed). Most scouting reports indicate it's possible he could handle center field if his instincts can compensate for his physical limitations. Honestly, though I remember reading about scouts universally expecting Martin to be a best fit at 2B due to his lack of range and arm, I just can't find anything to support it. Here's what I can say... I don't agree with using career MiLB numbers in all cases because it can be so apples vs. oranges at different ages, experience levels, and even league trends. Martin doesn't have much sample size in CF and this years' absurd 3.49 number is screwing up his career numbers. It's not a question of "most likely" regression. It's absolute colossal and guaranteed regression. It's more valuable to look at the sample sizes which are... insufficient, but at least reasonable in AA. If we were to compare Celestino (who is fringey as a CF when it comes to range), they do grade out similarly. In AA, Martin has a 2.34 RF/9 in Center Field across 435 innings in AA, but prior to the broken 3.49 this year 2.20ish) In AA, Buxton had a 3.44 RF/9 in a similar number of innings as Martin has at AA. In AA, Celestino has a 2.28ish RF/9 in AA Looking across the league Martin is playing in... Connor Lein (a25)= 2.65ish in AA JP Martinez (a26) = 2.25ish in AA (Frisco Roughriders) Max Schuemann (a25) = 2.60ish in AA (Midland Rockhounds) Cade Marlowe (a25) = 2.37 in AA (Arkansas Travelers) Nick Loftin (a23) = 2.32 in AA (Northwest Arkansas Naturals) Esteury Ruiz (a23) = 2.54 in AA (San Antonio Missions) Okay, I'm done with that. It's super time consuming. The bottom line is Austin Martin grades out as one of the worst fielders, if not the worst fielding CF in his league in AA. His grade is similar to Celestino, who is also fringey in CF. Martin does not possess a great arm or reported bonefide plus speed or supposedly a great first step. When compared to his CF peers in his league, he probably grades out at the very bottom. Could Martin play CF? Sure. Ron Gardenhire started Chris Parmelee in CF one game. It's just that Martin is going to have to make up for his defensive limitations in CF with his bat... i.e. he's not a good fit in CF. At least not in my opinion.

Quality starts are hard to come by with a manager who is notorious for a quick hook regardless of how guys are pitching. Ryan 4/8 Paddack 0/5 Ober 1/7 Gray 2/7 Winder 2/3 Smeltzer 1/5 Archer 0/11 Gonzalez 0/1 Sands 0/2 The entire Twins pitching staff has a combined 10 quality starts in 58 games. Besides that, "quality start" isn't even a good metric the way it's designed because a 3ER 6 inning performance is much worse than a 5 inning 2 earned run performance in regard to the likelihood a game is won or lost. Bundy has 4 starts of 5.0+ innings and less than 2 earned runs allowed. Bundy has 3 truly bad games in 9 starts this year. He has 3 games with an xFIP over 5.00 as well. I'm still not a huge fan of Bundy, but intentionally cherry picking a (bad) stat for which almost nobody in MLB would deliver good results is disingenuous.

Dylan Bundy's Fangraphs page https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan-bundy/12917/stats?position=P Scroll down about 1/2 way to the category "Pitch Info Pitch Velocity" You can hover over the heading fields to translate what the symbols mean vFA = "vFA - Fourseam Fastball Velocity - (Pitch Info)" If you're curious about game to game performances, near the top of player profiles, you can hover over "Game Log" in the main header, then select the "Pitch Type" header which will appear below the Game Logs header.

The day I take Griffin Jax, AAAA talent, over Chris Archer against the middle of the Yankees lineup seems distant indeed.