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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Last year he was in high school... this year he was pitching so well the Reds promoted him to A+ ball with a month and a half left on the season. That's serious fast tracking and it doesn't happen if the Reds aren't very, very impressed with what they saw. Twins "stud" Matt Canterino was being fawned over in A+ at age 23 and in his 3rd professional season after drafting him out of college, in between IL stints. Petty is 19, in his 2nd season and out of high school. Petty's ceiling was always Ace (as good as Gray used to be when he was young). Very high risk Petty would not be able to develop his changeup into a plus offering required for that, but last year in his exposure to hitters at the complex, the reports were glowing. Petty looked far more like a pitcher than many people expected. He was not a thrower. Better control than expected. Changeup and slider better than expected. The only other big concern was Petty's ability to remain healthy, which he has so far. Considering the Twins had, literally, nothing they could count on in the minors who looked like they had Ace potential, I was not happy with this trade. It's also worth noting the Reds took Chase Petty for Sonny Gray. That should tell you a lot about how the Reds saw Petty's value. Of the 125 pitchers with 70 innings or more this year, Gray has produced the 53rd highest fWAR. Meaning, he's provided the value of a very good #3, relative to his peers. Gray's actual production per inning pitched is certainly higher than that; however, he's been a pitcher who's struggled with injuries for most of the past decade. Now that he's in decline, his velocity is dropping and his metrics are fading. Gray's also being paid $12MM per year with the Twins having control only one more season. Gray provides a lot of surplus value at $12MM year at this point, and I don't deny that. I just would have rather parted with something other than Petty to get him.
  2. bean5302
    Always a tough call on whether or not a non-Twins player should receive a Twins reward. Encarnation-Strand did all his work for the Twins so in that way, he earned it. Looking over the MLB.com top prospects list for the Twins today was a bit depressing.
  3. bean5302
    Got it. Act of God. Nobody has responsibility for multi-million dollar assets. Sometimes things just don't work. What can you do?Somehow, I just don't think that perspective flies in big business.
  4. bean5302
    Just saw Chase Petty was promoted to A+. I really do hate that trade.
  5. bean5302

    Sano related moves.

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    Kennys Vargas got inducted into the HoF??????
  6. bean5302
    I'm not saying the Twins always have to get it right, but they've got a multi-million dollar asset and they've failed to diagnose the problem with it. It doesn't really matter who's fault it is specifically, but it's basically either Alex Kirilloff's or the organization's, isn't it?
  7. bean5302
    They don't really know why he's still having wrist pain after more than a year. I think it's fair to consider that a failure of the Twins medical/training staff to get a good diagnosis.
  8. bean5302
    I can admit I was horribly off the mark on Duran. It's clear his control issues have been addressed and the guy's stuff is just filthy as originally advertised. My biggest question on him right now is... will the Twins look to stretch him back out to a starter? He's made it clear he prefers to start and the potential upside of seeing Duran pitch 162+ innings in a season is really enticing. I'd think the Twins could make him an starter next year and limit him the same way they've limited Bundy and Archer this year.
  9. bean5302
    I think I wrote him off at the time of the trade. Strotman is still handing out free passes, but at least he's not giving up so many hits. His season BABIP is a very high .353 and that's been lower over the past two weeks, but the question is why. Is it because he was unlucky before or is it because he struggles with control and hitters can sit on pitches and make Strotman hittable? In other words, should Strotman have a high BABIP by nature or has he been really unlucky in AAA this year? My money is on the former. In regard to multiple inning outings, the former starter has 3 in the last 10 games. Two blowouts and a double-header. Last 10 games 10 G, 13.2 IP, 11.20 K/9 (28.3%), 5.27 BB/9 (13.3% BB), 1.24 WHIP, .281 BABIP (estimate) Bottom line for me is a 5.27 BB/9 in AAA doesn't translate to MLB well and control has always been the issue for Strotman.
  10. bean5302
    I hear the Orioles have a history of correcting wrist issues in a week the Twins trainers and medical staff take years to figure out. i.e. JJ Hardy. I think it's time for outside opinions on Kirilloff.
  11. bean5302
    Sanchez's inability to control the position defensively? As he throws out yet another base runner tonight (something defensive wizard Jeffers could only dream of)... btw, Sanchez is better than average with catcher framing this year. What is with the writers on this site. Did Sanchez steal all your girlfriends/boyfriends or something? Maybe he made a career of slapping your mom's in the face?
  12. bean5302
    It was announced. Sano is done for the year, which also means Sano is done with the Twins and likely he's done being in MLB. The last of the slider, down and away = strike 3 Sano has been seen.
  13. bean5302

    Soto trade fallout

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    It's hard for me to respect Hosmer as a player or person at this point. He's been nothing but a boat anchor to the Padres since he signed. The least he could have done is taken one for the team, declined his player options and hit free agency next year fairly. I honestly would have loved to see San Diego DFA him on September 1st, just after he became ineligible for the playoffs since they're going to pay for him anyway. I suppose it's just the same as when teams screw over their prospects with service time manipulation, etc. I think I'm just a fair is fair, 8hrs work for 8hrs pay kind of person.
  14. bean5302
    Honestly, these moves feel like they signal a do or die situation for the front office. Hopefully, Mahle is the exceedingly rare starter who can manage to outperform the league HR/FB rate long term, though, honestly, I think the front office's hands were a bit tied after the collapse of top prospects this year. It's hard to imagine the Twins' farm system ranking out of the basement of MLB if a couple of the top guys don't take big steps forward to end the season. The loss of Povich, Steer, Hajjar and Encarnation-Strand hurt, but they weren't going to change the status of the farm to above average. The Twins were going to have a well below average farm system no matter what at this point. These moves just gut what would have been the middle rank depth for good farm systems; however, that pushes an already weak system into the abyss. This is exactly the situation Falvey was hired to prevent. The only thing which should save his job at this point is a deep playoff run.
  15. bean5302
    That's a nice solid bullpen, IMHO. Having two guys both worth closer duty and a couple solid middle relievers goes a long, long ways. Jax adding 2.5mph to his already improved fastball from last year has really let his slider play better and it's seemingly turned Jax into a solid reliever. Jax has exceeded my expectations and I think he may have achieved his ceiling. Really great for him and the Twins. I couldn't be happier for all involved.
  16. bean5302
    ...and it seems like the financial concept of "Net Present Value" gets overlooked a lot. i.e. having a good player with surplus value now provides more investment value than it would in the future. I look at it as we're getting a guy who looks like a great relief pitcher with a ton of surplus value (cheap for WAR) when the Twins have a huge need for that player in a season where the Twins are in a position for a potential playoff run. Even if Cade Povich turns into a good starter, we weren't going to see him for at least 2 more years, when the Twins might be struggling so even if he was a 3.0 WAR pitcher, his contributions to the team might not have moved the needle much in terms of true value to the club.
  17. bean5302
    Lopez owns a .229 BABIP this year, but the launch angle against him is absurd at -0.7*. Makes sense as Lopez has generated a crazy high 60% ground ball rate. Walk rate is a bit high, but the K rate is elite. It's interesting because Lopez doesn't generate a huge number of swinging strikes. It makes sense as he's a sinkerball pitcher. It looks like Lopez has entirely given up on his 4 seamer this year. It'll be interesting to see if his stuff continues to play at the elite level of whether or not MLB hitters will adapt, but for right now, he looks like the real deal.
  18. bean5302
    Takes balls for a fan of the worst team in baseball from 2011-2016 who also finished dead last in the weakest division in baseball last year to make that statement. The Orioles are 2.5 GB from the Twins right now. Oh, and they were in the American League Championship series in 2014, meaning they won a few playoff games in the last decade.
  19. bean5302
    I don't think anybody is asking these questions if Carlos Correa didn't somehow fall into the Twins' laps, and I'm very sure the Twins didn't plan on that happening. It changed the entire season plan right then and there. The Twins were dealt a situation where they were suddenly, maybe, competitive in what promised to be a much tougher division. I think it sent them scrambling to be creative when so much of the free agent market was already wrapped up. Basically, I don't think the Twins were prepared for this scenario.
  20. bean5302
    The good news is the Twins have literally 0 elite healthy prospects so it helps them make decisions on their potential trade targets... offf
  21. bean5302
    It's been largely the same pitching, just with different results. xFIPs have barely moved since June 30th.
  22. bean5302
    Can you link to that rule? It allowed Palacios to be moved off the 40 man without exposing him to waivers. I didn't find the part which also nullified using the option. The COVID protocols are a mess and really should be kicked to the curb.
  23. bean5302
    This is really the worst case scenario for a trade deadline position for the Twins. Somewhere in a gray area in regard to whether or not they're really a playoff contender. There aren't just a couple problems, there are a host of them and no way to reasonably address all of them or even most of them. Quite the mess with tons of injuries.
  24. bean5302
    It's 50/50 in my opinion. There's not really a great reason to DFA him, but the Twins' attitude has definitely shifted on Sano.
  25. bean5302
    Transactions history show him added to the 40 man and optioned to AAA.
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