bean5302

...and with that, the Twins season moves onto the ventilator. 6 games back, 2 games left against the division leader and 17 remaining in the season. Game 2 started now. Another loss or two in this series and it's time to shut Buxton, Kepler and Polanco down for the rest of the season.

You're a bit late to the "complain about Gordon's defense party" even if we include the BS error call from last night. At 2B, Gordon's stats are universally average or above average. UZR, RF, Total Zone, Outs above average. They're all neutral to positive. This is driven by his better than average fielding percentage for a 2B and his solid to above average range and arm. The sample sizes are too small to really take much from the advanced metrics so just looking at fielding percentage Gordon .986, Polanco .979. Aside from that, Gordon's bat has been very valuable this year and well above MLB average at wRC+ 114, OPS+ 114. .275/.318/.428 OPS .746 if you like the more traditional metrics. All Nick Gordon has done this year is to provide solid defense at a bunch of random positions while bringing a valuable MLB caliber bat to the show. How valuable has he been? Per plate appearance, better than Jorge Polanco, Ron Acuna, Jr., Eduardo Escobar, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Gio Urshela, Bobby Witt, Jr., Jose Miranda, and a whole host of other guys you may know or have heard about. I don't know if Gordon can sustain it, but he's played very well this year. Every bit like a legitimate every day starter on a playoff caliber baseball team.

Spin rates just indicate some potential. It's one "small" factor in a pitch's value. More important: Pitch recognition. Pitch location. When the pitch breaks. The direction the pitch breaks. Pitch velocity.

Defensive metrics are worthless in the sample size you're referencing. Larnach's UZR/150 was -6.8 in LF last year across 466 innings. He's +20.7 UZR/150 this year in 247 innings. Larnach is not a plus defender and he almost certainly never will be. Even with his added step this year, he's still just a tick below average for speed in LF and he doesn't have a strong arm. Maybe... Byron Buxton might be +20.7 UZR/150 across a full season in LF, but I'm willing to wager nobody believes Larnach is a better outfielder than a healthy Byron Buxton.

Entrust and rely upon Trevor Larnach to be the primary starter in left field or DFA and release him. There's a pretty big gap between those two things. A little "gray" area in there, if you will.

I watched the play over and over and over and debated taking multiple images to post up or even creating an animated .gif, but as you say, you've already made your decision. The difference is mine is based on watching the play. Your decision was made because you're angry.

Sounds like Polanco won't be coming back in the near future. I'd think he's still at least a week out now. The good news is Buxton and Polanco won't have to push themselves to get back if the Twins lose a couple more to Cleveland. White Sox need the Twins to win a couple against the Guardians or the White Sox's season is probably over as well. A Cleveland & Detroit sweep probably just about locks up the division for the Guardians.

That was a damn tough call on Gordon getting an error there. Running away from first to field the ball, pivoting 120*, throwing off balance while still running and the throw didn't beat the runner anyway. When the ball hits the glove at 1B, the runner's foot was on the bag already as shown in the image. Not a routine play. I would have scored it an infield hit.

Again a shot at Gary Sanchez, who has always been a better hitter than Jeffers across his career. Since 8/1 .237/.306/.392 OPS .698 wRC+ 101 Not sure why people keep thinking Jeffers is good at hitting. 2021 = wRC+ 84 2022 = wRC+ 93

Nothing wrong with a Nick Punto as a utility guy, but Nick Punto could pay defense.

It's MLB options the front office is obviously trying to protect, not service time. The front office had no good reason not to call up Varland and Wallner before September 1st and make them eligible for the playoffs, only to call them up a few days or a couple weeks later once an option wouldn't be used.

Perhaps you're not aware of this, but Rocco Baldelli has a binder of printed spreadsheets created by FedEx Office before every game delivered to the dugout. The paper is harvested from illegally poached, rare California Redwoods because the paper they create is also water resistant from his sweaty palms and fingers. It takes 2 - 50 foot tall redwoods to make one binder because Rocco rejects most of the wood he inspects, and if he suspects his secret harvesting location has been compromised, he lights another "wildfire" to cover it up. Baldelli's printed spreadsheets are the biggest cause of California's de-forestation problems. It's also why most of the pitchers take so long. Rocco literally has to flip through hundreds of pages to see what pitch to throw and where to throw it at what count, then relay it with hand signs to the catcher who relays it to the pitcher.

Martin definitely just going for the added playing time. Julien will be interesting if he's being sent there for defensive play. It's no guarantee he'd be playing positions the Twins would like him to get more experience playing. Having Isola take some steps forward would be huge for the organization so thin at catcher.

You watched all of them and know they were drops rather than throwing errors, right? He also has 2 errors in his last 68 games, both fielding. His only fielding errors this year. Every single other error this year (none in the past 68 games) has been a throwing error. Billy Hamilton, again, is not an MLB caliber player. He's barely good enough to play at AAA.

Not service time. Options and talking about why Wallner wasn't called up earlier rather than now. Varland and Wallner (if he was called up today) wouldn't be eligible for the playoffs no matter how well they play. Considering how badly the Twins needed an outfielder and a bat (they went out and got... Billy Hamilton), Wallner would have been a reasonable choice just like Varland was a reasonable choice considering how badly they needed a starter. Instead, the Twins waited until the month turned over so they wouldn't burn an option.

Where have we heard it before? Every single year nobody stepped up in the AL Central... so pretty much every year in recent times.

I was at the game. Billy Hamilton is a AAA player. Hamilton is a total and complete utter black hole at the plate. One of the worst hitters in the history of MLB. I'd rather have Matt Wallner in the lineup playing shortstop than Billy Hamilton in the lineup playing center field.

Right. I'd rather have Gilberto Celestino and Billy Hamilton taking Matt Wallner's at bats.

I don't see the same struggles. I just see some rough luck when Wallner started off in AAA. He was still taking walks and his K rate didn't skyrocket or something. We're talking about Wallners first 10 games just being rough on the balls finding openings. As the plate appearances have piled up, Wallner has shown off his arm, his surprising (and poorly documented) speed and his power. Why haven't the Twins called him up? They wanted to manipulate his options. Same as Varland.

This stretch of 5 games against the Guardians may well decide the Twins' season. The Twins are 4.0 games back of Cleveland and 1.0 games back of Chicago. If the Twins were to sweep the Guardians (exceedingly unlikely), they'd almost certainly be in the division lead. If the Twins were to get totally swept, they'd be 10 games back and fried extra crispy. How I like my chicken... not my favorite MLB team. 1-4, Twins are 1% playoff potential. 2-3, Twins are 5-10% playoff potential. 3-2, Twins are 20-30% playoff potential. 4-1, Twins are 30-50% playoff potential. 5-0, Twins are 50%-70% playoff potential. There's a range because of what the White Sox might do in addition to the Guardians. In order to give the team a good shot at winning the division, the Twins really need to take 4 of 5 here.

Joe Mauer would have refused the beer. Did you have any milk?

Larnach is still a big question mark. I'm not as concerned with his durability... yet, but I am concerned about how changeups and sliders are both kryptonite against him and he struggles against sinkers, too. The only pitch Larnach can reliably square up is a four seam fastball, though he's passable against curveballs, too. It all boils down to that ugly high whiff rate. Larnach's hit tool was horribly inflated. Larnach's "power" is gap power, much like Joe Mauer. Mauer had a lot of strength and hit a lot of balls very hard, but he didn't hit them in the air high enough to generate a lot of home runs. Larnach is not, and outside of a single year in college, has not ever demonstrated plus home run production. Fans expecting Larnach to 25+ home runs a year are either unaware of the fact he's really never hit a lot of home runs or hoping he changes his plate approach/swing style to generate more loft. Larnach is probably a 10-15 HR per year kinda guy right now. I'd say he does need to make an adjustment if he's going to swing and miss at as many balls at Miguel Sano does. If you miss on so many pitches, when you connect, it needs to be for more than a double or single. Larnach certainly has the power to regularly put balls in the seats if they're hit the right way. Defensively, Larnach definitely worked on something conditioning related this past off season because he was faster this year. Measurably faster and that played nicely for his defense. Larnach is credited with good instincts and a good feel for the game and a great read and jump off balls in the outfield can make up a lot for a lack of true speed. In regard to something like Larnach's impressive WAR in 51 games... I'll take it with a big grain of salt. Larnach got very lucky against sliders early in the season so I felt he may have turned a big corner and learned to adapt. Unfortunately, after April, Larnach was once again totally inept against them. It was just a flash in a pan... probably. Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach are very different players, but of the two, I'd rather have Nick Gordon starting every day as the left fielder because of Larnach's weak arm and Gordon's more proven results at the plate. That said, I don't think that's a question which needs to be asked since Gordon is much more likely to replace Max Kepler in my opinion. Would I want to "rely" on Trevor Larnach? No way. His injury history, limited versatility, poor performance against most pitches at the MLB level, extreme whiff rates and limited power production are all at odds with high expectations. A couple difficult but successful adjustments and Larnach could be a very valuable every day starter, but attempts at significant adjustments don't seem to be very successful at the MLB level.

Yeah, Fangraphs essentially adds up all the free agent contracts, adds up all those players' WARs and then divides the cumulative contract value by the cumulative WAR created from my understanding. In general, free agents produce 1 WAR for $8MM spent (I think it's a little higher than that now). Including players like Stephen Strasburg.

I'd probably give Judge the MVP over Ohtani if the season ended today. Even though Ohtani has been a great hitter and starter, Judge's season is next level and he's likely to finish over 10.0 fWAR and maybe 10 bWAR. Ohtani = 3.5 fWAR batting 4.6 fWAR pitching = 8.1 fWAR Judge = 9.7 fWAR batting/fielding. Ohtani = 3.3 bWAR batting 4.8 bWAR pitching = 8.1 bWAR Judge = 9.1 bWAR batting/fielding WAR is a funny thing though. Since it's a multiplier, a couple 0-5 days in a row drops the offensive value relative to peers (like wRC+) and that value gets multiplied by all the plate appearances a player has so it can have multiplied effect. Judge could lose or gain 0.5 WAR in a double header. ...and the season doesn't end today. Also, how Ohtani went about generating his value is more impressive.

I know everybody hates Gary Sanchez because he had the audacity to not be an MVP while stealing plate appearances from uber elite dreamy Ryan Jeffers... but Sanchez is at 32% caught stealing this year vs. MLB average 25%. He's above average in pop time and throwing strength and his throws are on target. Sanchez is a bit above average for his career as well. He throws out quite a few base runners. That aside, I like the pitch clock the most. It's so desperately needed at this point. Picking up the base at MLB games will make them a lot more fun to watch and attend.