bean5302

It's not possible. Everybody knows Spring Training stats are the most important values to predict regular season performance!

Julien was totally inept vs. left handed pitching last year and his splits in the minors were pretty awful, too. At the plate vs. lefties last year, Julien's walk rate dropped from against RHP 17.2% to 4.2% against LHP. He also had an 80% ground ball rate vs. LHP last year. Now, we're only talking about 1/2 the sample size needed to start really stabilizing, but Julien was totally and completely overwhelmed against lefties.

From an athleticism standpoint, Castro will be superior to Farmer at any position other than catcher. Castro arm 88.8mph, sprint 28.6 ft/sec, range OAA +2, career 3B UZR above average Farmer arm 80.1mph, sprint 26.5 ft/sec, range OAA +2, career 3B UZR neutral, but he's lost a ton of speed. Neither Castro, nor Farmer have a lot of experience playing 3B, and neither one of them have been great at it. With repetition comes familiarity. Repetition breeds instinctive play where the player really doesn't even have to think about it. They know the order of operations. Where to stand after catching/throwing the ball. Which plays they can make, which plays they can't, etc. Digging through the history, Farmer's probably a tick better at reaction time and positioning. Plusses and minuses to each playing the position. Which player getting daily reps helps the Twins the most? Castro's also an outfielder and they benched Wallner for Castro yesterday, opting to put the poor hitting Margot at DH. I'd prefer to see Castro in an every day role to get a better feel for his bat. Was last year an aberration at the plate or is it a trend he can sustain? I think everybody knows what to expect of Farmer.

The most glaring question in all of this is how were Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa so good at the plate when their spring training results were so mediocre?

My best guess is when he had that awkward ankle roll, he reflexively overcompensated and the sudden reaction led to the injury. I don't think it's "running" or "stretching" related. For us normal people, it looks like he "tweaked it" so hopefully he didn't hurt it that bad at all. As of right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see him back for the Dodgers series.

Because players are who they are and not always who we want them to be? The list of rookie one year wonders is long as the ocean is wide in MLB. You're downplaying the discrepancies. 55pts of OPS is an absolute chasm in terms of value. Julien may take a step forward, but he's at least as likely to take a step backwards in terms of results. wRC+ 110-115 is still very valuable if Julien can be a solid defender at 2B. Dozier's razor thin margin of error was fly ball distance. He had warning track +3 feet power. When those 3 feet dropped off, it became just warning track power and Dozier's offense cratered. Dozier's weakness wasn't being a pull hitter (like most power hitters are). The weakness was "barely" being a power hitter in the first place. Julien struck out at the same rate as Wallner last year. While he's vaunted for his plate discipline, Julien gets rung up on strikes an awful lot (bottom 8% of MLB) because he knows he can't hit pitches at the corners. There's a reason Julien's approach is so unique... He's on the razors edge. Maybe he can make it work long term. Maybe he can make an adjustment to his swing to expand his options. He may grow into a totally different kind of hitter and blow the lid off everybody's expectations. Right now, the glowing expectations for him exceeding even the results that don't track with the advanced predictive metrics publicly available today feel pretty optimistic to me.

Knoblauch has nothing in common with Lee. Knoblauch wasn't a switch hitter, he walked about 50% more than he struck out, he had elite speed and he was an elite fielder. Chuck earned his value with his glove early on, and after he probably started juicing, with his bat and glove at his peak. Brooks Lee doesn't profile as any of those things, and especially hopefully not the juicing part.

Baez is older (a31 now), has been bad at the plate two years in a row, and bad 3 of his last 4 seasons (2 of them horrible) at the plate. Plus, he hasn't had an injury to point to as a potential cause. There's, of course, a chance he bounces back, but it's tiny. Despite the decrease in his K rate, he's actually increased his O-Swing rate while decreasing his Z-Swing rate. It's led to fewer whiffs at the cost of more weak contact, and even his peak exit velocities have dropped off from prime by 3-4mph. Basically, he's not seeing pitches as well, he's not lifting balls quite as much, he's not hitting them as hard when he does barrel them, and he's got (always had) lousy plate discipline. The profile is not one you'd expect a real bounce back. It's looking more and more like 2021 was his one "bounce-back" season. I wonder how long it takes for a player to become complacent with poor performances? When do they stop really trying to get better and just resign themselves to collecting an enormous paycheck? Lots of reasons to write Baez off.

Julien's xwOBA was .345 last year. His actual wOBA was quite a bit higher at .366. xBA = .233 vs. actual .263 xSLG = .427 vs. actual .459 Adjusting for expected statistics = .233/.355/.427 = OPS .782 rather than his actual .839. Now, an OPS of .782 is plenty good, probably about an wRC+/OPS+ in the 110-115 area. Certainly good for a 2.5-3.0 WAR caliber 2B if Julien can play average defense. Expecting Julien is somehow going to play at his absolute ceiling year after year while also getting really lucky isn't reasonable. There may be more in the tank for Julien to get results which match the underlying metrics expectations going forward and push him up a bit to that 3.0-4.0 WAR area, and that'd be great, but Julien's approach has a razor's margin involved. Much like the razor's margin Brian Dozier had years ago when he went from stud to dud almost instantly.

We do, do we? Maeda's actually been highly durable regardless of this strange myth spun around him. 2016 = 32 GS (No IL trips) 2017 = 25 GS + 5 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 15 days missed) 2018 = 20 GS + 19 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 15 days missed) 2019 = 26 GS + 37 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 10 days missed) 2020 = 11 GS (No IL trips) 2021 = 21 GS (one 10 day IL -> changed to 60 day IL for UCL tear) 2022 = Missed season from TJ surgery 2023 = 20 GS + 1 relief appearance Lingering shoulder fatigue from build up after surgery. (one 15 day IL, 55 days missed) The only major injury he's ever during his 8 year MLB career led to Tommy John surgery and he's never been placed on an IL more than once in a year.

This is the big concern for me. Julien only does a lot of damage when pitches are right in the meat of the zone. It's awesome that he's got such great pitch identification and ability to predict movement, but his ceiling will probably always be capped by his swing.

I suppose Polanco isn't a terrible comp. Lee can't run like Polanco can, but Lee's fundamentals in fielding are better to make up for it. Polanco was a solid player when he wasn't hurt. Certainly not elite, but solid.

FGDC. Starting Rotation expected WAR 2024 Twins = 13.9 Guardians = 11.4 There's no doubt the Guardians have developed pitching in a dramatically superior to Falvey's front office, but the Twins have gone out and bought pitching with trades and dollars. Twins pitcher vs. Guardians pitcher head to head, top 6 4.1 vs. 3.3 - Lopez vs. Bieber 2.8 vs. 2.3 - Ryan vs. McKenzie 2.1 vs. 2.1 - Ober vs. Bibee 2.0 vs. 1.5 - Paddack vs. Allen 1.5 vs. 1.2 - Varland vs. Williams (IL) 0.9 vs. 0.6 - Desclafani (IL) vs. Carrasco From a projection standpoint, the Guardians don't have a single rotation slot advantage over the Twins. I wasn't impressed with Cleveland's pitching before last year, either. When you look at Cleveland's rotation: 1. Bieber a29 - Once elite Cy Young potential pitcher losing velocity and strikeouts with it. Could rebound this year, but unlikely to return to Cy Young form. 2. McKenzie a26 - Low 90s fastball, finally got his control in check at age 24, but lost most of last season due to injury. His K rate declined with adding control. Great 4 seamer, everything else pretty average to below average. Similar to Joe Ryan, except less control and less K's. 3. Biebee a25 - Great slider, good curve, and his other pitches played very well off them with results far ahead of his actual stuff. xFIP was 1.24 points higher than ERA. Once the scouting reports catch up, profiles as a mid/back end rotation arm IMHO. 4. Allen a25 - Very poor fastball. Lacks velocity, lacks horizonal movement. The changeup is basically a straight ball, and it'll be easy for MLB hitters to adapt. I don't think he'll fare well as a starter long term at the MLB level. 5. Williams a24 - He could be really good. Great velocity, great extension, good movement on his pitches, but he's struggled a bit on his control. If he's able to make some adjustments, he could be a front line starter. Currently on the IL with elbow soreness, though apparently it was just inflammation. 6. Carrasco a37 - He's an innings eater for Cleveland taking up slack for injuries throughout the year. He had a resurgent 2022, but he was absolutely crushed last year. He's at the very twilight of his solid MLB career losing velocity and movement.

It's been interesting to follow the front office and Baldelli over the years. I think the real takeaway from watching the organization as a whole is that they're all on the same page. It's pretty rare when a specific person (Baldelli, Falvey) presents an idea as "theirs." I couldn't care less about Spring Training W-L records. Spring training is about getting mechanics in order, getting some daily work in, to adapt play styles, pitches, swing conditions, etc. It's practice.

Yeah. It's been a real missed opportunity season. Barring catastrophic seasons... Gray = 3yrs $75MM ($10MM this year) Snell = 1yr $31MM ($17MM this year, $15MM deferred to 2027) Montgomery = 1yr $25MM ($25MM this year) I was hoping the Twins would find a way to shed more salary and grab a front line starter. It's worth noting Neither Snell nor Montgomery would have signed any earlier than they did, and they won't be ready for opening day.

That's exactly what heroes say and do.

I'm not bullish on the Guardians this year. I think their pitching staff is already fading. Bieber has lost his velocity over the past couple of years and he's no longer an ace IMHO. Bibee could be good this year. McKenzie & Allen looks like back end rotation. Carrasco is a cheap veteran Cleveland can hope will keep the wheels on the bus. I think the Guardians finish 4th in the division with the 4th best rotation and with 95+ losses.

Nick Burdi just made the Yankees' roster after impressing this spring. Guy's never pitched more than 8.2 innings in a season back to 2018... oofff.

Though he's a righty and not a lefty, Jax's move to the bullpen reminds me a lot of what happened with Glen Perkins. Perkins didn't have great velocity as a starter, but moving him to the pen really had his stuff play way up.

Their Pythagorean was 64 wins last year so they weren't truly as horrible as their record suggested. There's some luck factor in there.

Tons of work went into this and it's a fun article to read!

I think it's pretty far fetched to believe in Winder as a starter at this point. It seems the workload is way too hard on his shoulder given his propensity for shoulder issues and now stress fractures, and his stuff needs to get back to where it was a couple years ago for him to be a bullpen piece now. I think he's a long shot to keep his 40 man roster spot all year.

If there's a problem, the Twins can swing an unconventional early year trade. I'm not concerned right now.

It'll be between the Tigers and the Twins. The outcome determined by the starting rotations.

Jax and Jeffers have been on the 26 man for 3 and 4 years, respectively. They're a little outside sophomore slump range haha. Julien is the most probable candidate for a sophomore slump IMHO. His approach teeters on the razors edge of sustainable.