bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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Why am I a fan of this (fake) poverty franchise?
bean5302 replied to AZDane's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Carl Pohlad was 14 at the start of the Great Depression, and 18 when he moved to California where he sold used cars before Bing Crosby convinced Pohlad to move to Spokane, WA and play football for Gonzaga. Pohlad did not get his start by foreclosing on farmers during the Great Depression since he was 14 at the start of that era. He grew up in a level of poverty the likes most on this site have never seen or could even imagine with his mom doing other people's laundry to help pay the bills, and Pohlad started out as a kid picking stickers like cockleburs and sandburs out of fields for farmers. The Great Depression was over when Pohlad was attending Gonzaga before he moved back to California to continue selling used cars. Pohlad was drafted in 1942 during WWII, and he served in an infantry unit in the European theater. He he returned from the European theater a war hero after earning 2 Bronze Stars for heroism and 3 Purple Hearts. After WWII, Pohlad worked for a finance company in California, which is where the legend of the foreclosure notices likely originated. Supposedly, Pohlad delivered the notices so maybe don't shoot the mailman? Details are pretty hard to come by. Rage and misinformation is pretty easy to find, though. In any case, Pohlad didn't own any banks until about 1950, when he was part of a group of investors which purchased the parent company of Marquette Bank. Pohlad eventually became the president of Marquette in 1955. Eventually, in 1982, Marquette acquired a bankrupt Farmers and Mechanics Savings Bank. Basically, the garbage story of Pohlad's origins is probably a mishmash of events crafted into a demon lord origin story. In 1984 Pohlad acquired a majority ownership interest, but without any team control, in the Minnesota Vikings. That same year, Pohlad also bought the Twins from Calvin Griffith, saving the Twins from moving to Florida in the process, resulting in the 1987 and 1991 World Series Championship teams celebrating in the twin cities. Those championship teams would not have been possible without Pohlad consistently ponying up for middle of the pack payrolls. 1988 (11th), 1989 (8th), 1990 (18), 1991 (16), 1992 (19), 1993 (17), 1994 (21)... this is where baseball financials changed. The cheapskate Pohlad paid or extended or signed big AAV stars in Minnesota including Puckett, Viola, Morris, Hrbek, etc. The Metrodome was an absolutely terrible, horrible, awful baseball stadium. MLB was struggling post 1994 strike, and former Vikings GM Mike Lynn got 10% of all suite generated gross revenue, further insulting the wounds to the Twins' finances. Pohlad lobbied hard for a new stadium where the Twins could be competitive in the new era of baseball financials. The Twins payroll when they ranked #8 in MLB in 1989 was $15.5MM. Rebuffed again and again, MLB and Pohlad were fed up. By 1997, when the North Carolina sale was discussed, it was $25.7MM (23rd) representing a 6.5% cumulative average annual increase, but MLB payrolls had been skyrocketing with some team owners running well into the red as they ran their clubs as a hobby or community service. Pohlad was a businessman and ran the Twins not to lose money. The North Carolina deal was for about $150MM, but it was contingent on factors which were never met, and subject to an MLB owners vote that it likely wouldn't have passed, either. It's tough to say how likely a move would really have been as debates have shot a lot of holes into the potential the move would have ever really been possible. In regard to the contraction plan, the myths and legends have grown just as famously as Mr. Pohlad's supposed origins. Volunteering to contract the team for $150MM is almost certainly a mixup of the North Carolina deal that fell through. The contraction plan was supposedly for $250MM after 9/11 with baseball reeling, and btw, there were no teams mentioned in the plan. MLB owners approved the contraction plan 28-2 with only the the Twins and Expos owners voting against the plan. There were 4 or 5 teams in the mix for being contracted, but the Twins and Expos were seen as the most likely target to be culled. Again, Pohlad voted against contraction. I'm sure this is just another conspiracy, right... There is so much misinformation and vitriol in this evil demon lord revisions of Carl Pohlad, it's just crazy. I didn't know the guy, and I didn't consider him a great owner, but man. -
Oakland looking at minor league ballparks for a temporary home
bean5302 replied to DJL44's topic in Other Baseball
Honestly, lots of strong opinions from folks who haven't spent 10 minutes researching the situation. I've been to several games at the Coliseum, including Twins @ A's when I was living out there. I don't think the my stadium experience was nearly as bad as Riverbrian's, but it wasn't good despite an obvious push by the owners to renovate and improve the Coliseum amenities. The AREA around the Coliseum is exactly as described. It's a dirty, garbage pile of an industrial zoned area. Think like what the area along the east side of I-94 just north of West Broadway, but 1/2 as built up, and much more run down, and from 20 years ago. A dump. There is nothing around the site. Metal recycling scrapyard types of places and empty lots. Fisher has been the sole owner since 2016. Fisher and Wolff were the owners from 2005-2015. Schott and Hofmann were the owners from 1995-2004, acquiring the team after massive losses associated with the 1994 strike, declining attendance by 1993 after the 1989-1990 World Series appearance years and Haas' fading health. *1992 This is when Haas, Jr. gave away a huge section of territorial rights to the SF Giants, including San Jose to facilitate their new stadium drive, which was not successful in the South Bay. This is also the last time the A's were at or above MLB average attendance. Haas, Jr. was the owner from 1980-1994, buying the team to block it moving to Denver, but they operated with huge losses every year until 1988, where the A's broke even and the 72 year old Haas' time was limited. A new stadium search for the A's began almost immediately after Schott & Hofmann purchased the Athletics, with the franchise losing money almost every single year Haas, Jr. had owned it. The SF Giants had been granted a huge territorial rights bonus and were just about to get a new stadium deal (1996, opening stadium 2000) after playing in Candlestick (which was also kind of in the middle of nowhere). Lew Wolff was hired to try and find locations and the A's owners were already dealing with failures and complications to replace the non-viable Coliseum by 1998. The Bay Area residents, local governments, and the San Francisco Giants blocked a half dozen stadium deals for over 25 years. The A's routinely operated at 50% losses under Haas, Jr. and he further gave away rights which crippled the Athletics' ability to source new revenues and stadium sites, and he then sold the team almost immediately after. That is what the recent 3 ownership groups have been dealing with. Attendance at the Athletics games is terrible. It's been terrible for decades, and was below average even after the Athletics made the playoffs 4 consecutive years into the early 2000s when the financial environment for baseball was very different and the Coliseum wasn't necessarily the absolute worst stadium in baseball. It 100% is now. Without any room for reasonable debate. It's facilities are often overshadowed by low minors teams and the actual site is totally dilapidated, even if it wasn't in an industrial zone. -
I think you mean Canterino instead of Carmargo, who catches pitches rather than throwing them, haha.
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For sure! I was basically just quoting a similar package in value. That's why I talked about sweetening the deal by including a cost controlled shortstop option like Willi Castro or whomever. Brooks Lee is still an overpay, though. It's not like the Brewers don't have any other assets and it's impossible for the Twins to work out a deal sending Lee to the Brewers along with exchanging some other prospects to balance it out.
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Is Carlos Santana Better than You Think?
bean5302 replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Baseball Reference focuses on DRS and TZR. Santana has been average defensively across his 1B career in those 2 stats, and average in OAA, UZR and RF/9 as well. The last 3 graded Santana's defense as "average" last year as well, same with his error rate while DRS is used in bWAR says Santana was exceptional (out of the blue) last year. His fWAR was more consistent in defense based on OAA. While he was historically a 2-3 WAR player in his prime, here's his fWAR the past few years. a32 2018 - 2.5 a33 2019 - 4.8 (by far career best) a34 2020 - 0.7 (1.8 fWAR at 150 games rate) a35 2021 - (0.5) a36 2022 - 1.0 a37 2023 - 1.7 His xwOBACon was a career low last year thanks to poor exit velocities, low line drive rates and lots of grounders. His walk rate plummeted as well with his resulting xwOBA being about 20pts lower than actual. Basically, it looks like Carlos Santana is well into his decline was all smoke and mirrors last year. I don't think it would be prudent to bank on Santana producing more than 0.5 fWAR/bWAR this year in 100 games. I'd take Austin Martin, Jose Miranda or Kyle Farmer over Santana at 1B.- 59 replies
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Side note, I'd have made a similar trade happen for sure if I was the front office. Burnes would immediately slot in as our ace and raise the ceiling of our rotation dramatically. The Twins are already AL Central favorites (not saying too much there), but with Burnes, you have to like them for potential World Series contenders.
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Baseballtradevalues.com evaluated the trade as: Corbin Burnes vs. DL Hall + Joey Ortiz + Round A Comp 33.8 vs. 18.9 + 13.6 + 4.0 (36.5) The values are "surplus value" which is essentially the amount of value the player is expected to produce over the life of their contract/team control, less the projected cost of that production. A similar package might be: Emmanuel Rodriguez + David Festa + 2024 Twins Comp A = 19.9 + 8.7 + 4.0 = 32.6 Brooks Lee on his own would be an overpay. It doesn't mean the Brewers didn't ask for him, but I'm sure the Twins could have worked around a different option. If the Brewers were obsessed with a SS possibility, maybe swap Willi Castro for the Comp A pick or see how the Brewers feel about Noah Miller, Austin Martin or Nick Gordon, etc.
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The tickets aren't expensive, but the increased prices were announced to season ticket holders at the beginning of August. The Twins have an auto-renewal system in place for season ticket holders right now and the ticket holder is required to provide a written opt out by the end of August. That necessitates ticket prices being determined mid-season. I suspect the increased prices are a result of the $155MM payroll and the increases in other operational costs.
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So I do love what Wallner is doing with the bat... but he basically reinforced that defensive reputation with titanium alloy tonight. Take a look at Salvador Perez's RBI "double" https://www.mlb.com/gameday/twins-vs-royals/2022/09/21/662633#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=662633 It was not a graceful display, haha.
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- matt wallner
- carlos correa
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BS. Total BS. May wRC+ 156 Jun wRC+ 189 Aug wRC+ 128
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- matt wallner
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I appreciate you looking out for me and all, but I got my money's worth for my seats this year. Season ticket holders get: 1. 15-20% off all food, drink & merchandise.* 2. Guaranteed seats, in the spot they chose, for each of their games. 3. Free season ticket holder merchandise, special prizes, etc. *In addition, the Twins DID give season ticket holders a huge gift starting September 9th by doubling our food & drink discounts. We'll be getting 30-40% off all food and beverage purchases. Side note, ticket prices are increasing about 12% for next year. I expect there to be a lot of discounted seats available in 2022.
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Rodriquez posted an overall line of .290/.361/.605 OPS .966 with a .315 ISO including quite a few doubles. His walk and strike out rates were 9.6% BB, 23.7% K, but I'm not sure what to make of it for the DOSL and a kid who was still just 16 at the beginning of June.
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@Cody Christie the link for Jose Rodriquez in the article goes to the wrong Jose Rodriguez It took a couple searches, but here's the correct link . https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig106jos
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3 Rookie Records Set to Fall
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Why are you trying to attribute the quote to me? That's @Trov's quote, not mine.- 11 replies
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Farm systems are expected to graduate guys. That's why farms exist. The farm was "okay" before Balazovic dropped off a cliff and Martin took another step back. Once the Twins got to the trade deadline they had exactly zero elite prospects to bargain with, other than perhaps Brooks Lee, who went 8th overall (which would normally be out of the top 100) and had yet to play a single game in the minors. The Twins traded away what looked like some of their strongest assets (because they had to) at the deadline. The Twins had some guys take big steps forward since, but there's still a chasm between the elites and the C level prospects in the system.
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I don't know how much surplus value Urshela has. First, the Twins have to give him a contract ($10MMish in arbitration 3 after making $6.5MM this year) with him becoming a free agent at the end of next year. Is he worth $10MM? Ehhhhhhh... maybe. So with that contract does he have any trade value? Probably not. I think the Twins will non-tender him.
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I think the front office was using pull tabs (cardboard crack). They were chasing the big payouts on what they thought was a a hot box. They blew all the cash they had (existing team), then maxed out their ATM (record payroll), then borrowed from their friends (wiped out the farm) and only hit playbacks.
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Prospect Retrospective: Matt Wallner
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wallner appears to be MUCH faster than scouted. We're talking 65+ speed in the super small sample size. Sprint speed 28.6 ft/sec, making him the 3rd fastest runner on the Twins. Wallner's sprint speed is higher than Royce Lewis' 28.4 ft/sec. 29.1 ft/sec Byron Buxton 29.0 ft/sec Billy Hamilton 28.6 ft/sec Matt Wallner... wtf???? 28.4 ft/sec Royce Lewis 28.2 ft/sec Jorge Polanco 28.2 ft/sec Jake Cave 27.9 ft/sec Max Kepler 27.9 ft/sec Gilberto Celestino 27.9 ft/sec Mark Contreras 27.9 ft/sec Jermaine Palacios 27.8 ft/sec Nick Gordon 27.6 ft/sec Alex Kirilloff 27.0 ft/sec Carlos Correa 27.0 ft/sec Trevor Larnach 26.9 ft/sec Luis Arraez 26.7 ft/sec Miguel Sano 26.6 ft/sec Kyle Garlick 26.3 ft/sec Jose Miranda 25.9 ft/sec Ryan Jeffers 25.8 ft/sec Gio Urshela 25.1 ft/sec Gary Sanchez 23.6 ft/sec Sandy Leon (ranked 561 of 567 players with 10 opportunities) -
Falvey should be fired. It's time. Articles like this desperate to find a way the front office should never take responsibility for the on field product confuse me. The Twins went out and took risks. Yes, they did. Bad risks. The Twins were empty on mid/front rotation arms coming into this season coming off a miserable failure of a year where the team finished dead last in the weakest division in baseball. What the Twins did have was a collection of back end starters after trading the best starter the Twins had developed in over a decade where almost all of the rotation potentials had lengthy and troubling injury histories. Dobnak, Ober, Smeltzer... None of them were reliable. The potential reinforcements in the minors, were iffy as well with the best option, Josh Winder, being shut down with a shoulder injury for most of the second half of 2021. Ryan was unproven, but looked like he could carry a back end spot. That left the Twins in a position where they needed to fill several spots in the rotation. Gray, Paddack, Archer, Bundy. All injury prone. Paddack came with a straight up 10/10 immediate start of the season blowout warning factor. A known partially torn UCL. There were other pitchers, more reliable pitchers to stabilize the risks, but the Twins passed. The Twins front office gambled, and gambled and gambled... The Twins front office implemented a TTO strategy with their pitchers. Yanking them consistently after 4-5 innings pitched. Nullifying any potential value even a great starter could hope to achieve. Maybe it was in a bid to keep the players on the field, but that failed. Maybe it was just because they believed pitchers would perform better... but in a vacuum without consideration for how the bullpen would pick up the extra 1-2 innings per game they'd need to pitch. Another failure. The Twins trainers, coaches and medical staff witnessed seemingly every single player on the team getting hurt. There's something more there than just luck. It's bad timing when the front office already had other gambles fail in the year. The front office recognized their self-created bullpen problem and their failed gambles in the rotation at the trade deadline, but the choices they made were to gamble again on a starter Mahle who had recently been on the IL with shoulder issues and the best options the Twins could find in the bullpen. All it cost was just about everything the farm system had left after the collapse of Martin and Balazovic. The Twins end 2022 coming off a year in which they finished dead last in the division and will probably finish under .500 again despite extending the payroll to massive new records. Even the farm system has been gutted. The pitching "pipeline" has been a failure. The drafts have been pretty poor, and the prospects who looked good quickly got traded because of the failure at the MLB level. Perhaps the article writer should blame the front office for the risks they took rather than the fans for wanting a good team?

