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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The Twins are almost certainly a playoff team, IMHO. Elite bullpen, strong lineup, high floor rotation. In order to make a deep playoff run, the Twins need a higher ceiling rotation. Their current options won't cut it beyond Lopez. That said, we're months away from the trade deadline, and something truly unexpected in terms of development could happen. With the organization once again in a position to "put a boot to the throat", they once again punted. Playoff Rotation FGDC WAR projections Astros - Valdez (3.7), Brown (2.3), Verlander (2.2), Javier (1.7) Yankees - Cole (3.5), Rodon (3.1), Stroman (2.0), Cortes (2.0) Rangers - Eovaldi (2.3), Gray (2.3), Scherzer (2.0), Dunning (1.8) Orioles - Burnes (3.8), Rodriguez (2.6), Kremer (1.8), Bradish (1.3) Mariners - Castillo (3.8), Kirby (3.7), Gilbert (3.0), Miller (1.6) Twins - Lopez (4.1), Ryan (2.8), Ober (2.1), Paddack (2.0) Jays - Gausman (4.4), Bassitt (2.9), Berrios (2.4), Kikuchi (1.9) Rays - Eflin (3.6), Civale (2.0), Baz (1.5), Bradley (1.4) The Twins are pretty middle of the pack in terms of projected top rotation right now, but it also depends on some guys I'm not particularly bullish on so I'm more bearish than the projections here. With Snell and Montgomery still out there, and Snell looking to consider short term offers, it just makes too much sense to me to lock in another front of the rotation option without diving into our top prospects yet again as the season progresses.
  2. bean5302
    I really can't comprehend the hate for Wallner here. There's nothing in his profile from last year suggesting he won't be a great to elite bat moving forward. Almost the entire team sucked at the plate against the Astros in the playoffs. Basically, the entire team was overwhelmed by the atmosphere and they were collectively swinging at junk. Only Lewis & Correa actually forced the Astros pitchers to throw strikes at all if my recollection serves me well. Wallner wasn't some exception. Not sure why the sky isn't falling from the 5-10 PA other Twins players got?
  3. bean5302
    Absolutely Brooks Lee has potential to be a great player, but rankings involve a lot of different assumptions. High floor vs. high ceiling, how close the player is to contributing, etc. There have been holes in Brooks Lee's game. That's absolutely expected. For him to be at the MLB level this year would still be quite fast to the big leagues. I'm going to bring Austin Martin back into this. He was ranked #2 overall for the 2020 draft by MLB, #1 overall by Keith Law, #1 overall by CBS, #3 overall by Fangraphs... you get the idea. After the draft and his first year of playing time, Martin was ranked #12 in all of MLB by Keith Law mid 2021, was consistently top 50 after 2021 (#22 by MLB) and still consistently top 100 (#52 by MLB) after 2022. Did Martin have the potential to be a superstar? For sure! Super elite hit tool. Athletic with plus speed, questionable arm for SS, but viewed as a potential CF fall back. The scouting reports were glowing and Martin destroyed AA level pitching right out of the gate with Toronto. In every way, shape or form, Austin Martin was viewed as good or better than Brooks Lee at the same age. Prospects are just that, and almost all of them have some holes in their games which need to be identified and worked through. Even an eventual MLB Hall of Fame, god level talent like Joe Mauer needed 3 years in the minors. That chart includes top level high schoolers who had 2 years of experience above Lee and it shows: 1.5% of players reached MLB through age 20 5.9% of players reached MLB through age 21 15.6% of players reached MLB through age 22 <--- realistically, Brooks Lee, since he was 22 until last month... 31.1% of players reached MLB by age 23 50.2% of players reached MLB by age 24 67.0% of players reached MLB by age 25
  4. bean5302
    Formerly awkward retirement age actuary hit by bus (always a bus or car, amirite?) at right wing conspiracy convention is isekai'd into a new world as a demon lord. I think I'll pitch that to Amazon. They make a lot of bad choices in terms of shows. Maybe I'll get paid? LOL
  5. bean5302
    I wouldn't think there was any expectation he'd be pitching before mid season at the earliest. He underwent UCL surgery in late July. Every surgery and person who undergoes the process is different, but a second UCL repair can be slower than the first. Maeda had an internal brace in September, 2021 and he wasn't ready for 2023. Ohtani had an internal brace in October, 2023, and while he's hitting, he hasn't even started a throwing program. He's all but completely ruled out for pitching this year. Paddack had his second UCL surgery in May, 2022 and he didn't start throwing off the mound for nearly 14 months afterward. Prielipp has been in Ft. Myers already according to the TD scouting report page, but I'd be surprised to see him progressing much into a throwing program until well after the season starts. I'm sure the Twins are going to be taking him along slowly like they did Royce Lewis last year because of the 2nd ligament tear in a short time. Maybe mid-season? The "internal brace" procedure sure seems to have been sold with an overly rosy view on recovery time recently so I think fans got 6 month time frames into their heads as reasonably possible when it doesn't seem to have truly accelerated the time frame much for pitchers. I'm with you, though. It'd be fun to hear some good news on him.
  6. bean5302
    What makes you think Brooks Lee profiles as a superstar player? Also, the average college draft pick getting to the majors is 3-4 years. Fast is 2-3 years. Brooks Lee is starting his 3rd year and he was over 4 years younger than the average AAA player last year. Somebody posted this spreadsheet. Worth a look. a20-21 debuts are super elite players drafted out of high school. a22-24 debuts are very good players drafted from high school or college. a25 still produces some solid talent. a26+ are mostly roster filler.
  7. bean5302
    I think it's widely accepted the Twins took Desclafani in the Polanco trade because the Mariners didn't want him and didn't want to absorb Polanco's entire price, and it was known at that time that Desclafani may not be ready for the start of the season because of the flexor tendon strain, even if he was optimistic. The Mariners acquired Desclafani as part of their trade with the Giants as San Francisco wanted to shed his contract, and the Mariners were not intending on adding the pitcher to the rotation, instead using him as a long reliever, but when the opportunity arose to shed a little of their cost for what would be a long reliever for them, they found a way to exchange some numbers with the Twins. A lot of fans wanted Varland to get the job in the rotation from the get-go, and moving Desclafani to the 'pen like the Mariners were intending is probably not the end of the world.
  8. bean5302
    Right down the street from me. If I have time, to drop in should I wear like an evil costume befitting my reputation around here? LOL. I could create a poll. Is bean5302 a: A. Crotchety old man/woman. B. Demon lord. C. Angry right wing nut job. D. Awkward actuary E. Other
  9. bean5302
    Some of the possible roster decision players for 26 man. Spring Training OPS, wRC+, BB%, K% Miranda RHB = 1.072, +198, 13.3%, 20.0% (1 option) Larnach LHB = 1.011, +167, 10.0%, 30.0%, (1 option) Martin RHB = .679, +93, 9.1%, 27.3% (3 options) Kirilloff LHB = .641, +66, 4.2%, 20.8% (1 option) Goodrum RHB = .421, +34, 22.2%, 27.8% (Non-Roster, 2 Options) Wallner LHB = .345, +7, 13.6%, 31.8% (2 options) Severino SHB = .054, -71, 0.0%, 53.8% (3 options) Not that Spring Training stats usually have a big impact on team decisions, but just for the sake of curiosity.
  10. bean5302
    What part of his swing isn't under control in your opinion? Wallner stands close to the plate and the type of swing he has isn't going to be successful at generating hard contact on inside edge pitches so he's going to be vulnerable to those if the pitcher can hit their spots. I do think there's some work Wallner might be able to do on pitches down in the zone. He doesn't hit them as well, and he sees a lot of pitches down and away or in. He seems to have inside pitches pretty well handled, but down and away is his biggest K weakness. Up and away/outside edge is an area he can probably swing more and do more damage, but he gets a lot of his walks there already. Overall, Wallner's o-swing rate is already better than MLB average so I'm not sure I expect there's a lot of room for him to make big strides.
  11. bean5302
    Come on now... Most infielders through the Twins MiLB development system had a significant amount of their time spread around the diamond during their development with poor error rates, and it's often the case they see a plug 'n play style defense at the MLB level afterwards. Gordon, Lewis, Polanco, Martin, Escobar, Prato, Severino, Steer, Castro just off the top of my head... It's not hard to find examples of infielders being shifted all over the place. There are various reasons to shift players around, but "positional flexibility" at the MLB level is not a valid one for potential every day players IMHO as it just damages the perceived value of the player on the market and produces a lot of poor defense. Btw, Julien MiLB (18G at LF, 23G at 3B, 167G at 2B, 21G at 1B). Definitely solidified at 2B, but not without playing him all over the field after he was a primary 3B in college. YMMV on your own personal opinions.
  12. bean5302
    Brooks Lee has quite a bit to prove, but some fans are really, really whipped up into a froth about him. Lee didn't hit last year in AAA and he didn't hit from the right side of the plate at all. As for his amazing Spring Training (which means little) .261/.292/.391 OPS .683 isn't impressive, and 1 BB in 24 plate appearances against dubious levels of pitcher competition isn't what I'd want to see. Things Brooks Lee has going for him: Excellent baseball IQ, solid fundamentals, good hit tool, still very young with room to adjust and improve. Things which may prevent Lee from being an every day player in MLB: Below average athleticism, mediocre power, can't hit LHP right now 2023 AAA Level = .731 OPS (wRC+ 78) <--- this is very poor. All levels vs. LHP .603 OPS, .106 ISO, 3.7% BB, 23.9% K <--- can't hit from right side of plate All levels vs. RHP .860 OPS, .207 ISO, 11.4% BB, 14.1% K Austin Martin was absolutely considered a higher ceiling and higher floor than Brooks Lee when the Twins acquired him. Better hit tool. More athletic. Prospects are just that.
  13. bean5302
    The only time I've had somebody intentionally get physical with me or actually verbally assault me was AT&T (now Oracle Park). The Twins were on pace to lose like 100 games at the time and the Giants were en route to the playoffs. I was thinking wtf?... "really? the Twins? that's the team on pace to lose 100 games you've never even played a meaningful game against? that's the team/fanbase you're enraged at?" after I was randomly shoulder checked while walking the concourse back to my seat with some food, and some dude was like "f_____ Twins fans, get out of here!" or something like that. It was a real eye opener as to why fans out there have gone to the E.R. after Bay Area/L.A. sports events. A little fun banter, sure. I've had that at the Pepsi Center following Wild @ Avs games, etc. Never had anybody randomly get legitimately angry or aggressive with me at any of the dozens (if not 100s) of out of town games I've attended over the years. That said, I've been to a few Twins @ Giants games over the years. Nice stadium, great location, overrated food IMHO, and almost universally good experiences.
  14. bean5302
    The history of developing quality defenders, especially under Falvey, is very poor, IMHO. How often do we see a player assigned to essentially a single position where they earn every day reps coming up through the system? It's a rhetorical question since the answer is pretty much never. I read a lot of comments about Julien improving rapidly, and I don't think it's any coincidence the improvement came with practice and repetition at a single position, do you? But how often do the Twins stick with that approach? Almost never. Players are treated as plug-n-play for the most part. I don't think it's a coincidence Twins MiLBs very often put up terrible fielding percentages in the infield compared to their quality prospect peers, either. I'm going to nip this in the bud before people who hate the concept of fielding percentage being valuable... it's incredibly important. A high error rate wipes out any perceived ceiling on a player's defense. Fielding percentage is not generally a great indicator of overall defensive value at the MLB level; however, that's because there is often so little difference in fielding percentage between great or below average that it's not more valuable than range or arm. i.e. Top quartile in MLB for qualified MLB SS ended at .985. 3rd quartile started at .979 in 2023. Over 1200 innings, that's like 2-3 errors. Not nearly as valuable as range or arm. Twins infielders often post fielding percentages near .900 in the minors which is more like a projected difference of 30 errors (that's worth more than 30 OAA for the trendiest metrics folks). Martin's defense improved dramatically in AAA last year when assigned to 2B rather than floating all over the diamond like the Twins had him doing. Again, not a coincidence, but here we are talking about putting him all over the field as a utility player again. How damaging was this to Nick Gordon? How massively did it hurt Eduardo Escobar's trade value in 2018 vs. leaving him at SS? How much has this "flexibility" mindedness stunted the defensive development of players? It's hard to say, but on thing is for certain, too often Twins prospects come to the big show with reputations as inept defenders. While probably a bit grating, I stand by my position this Twins FO has put a premium on quantity (perceived flexibility) over quality (actually any good at playing the position).
  15. bean5302
    Sure seems like HS draft pitchers blow a UCL out like clockwork within a year or two of the draft. Probably contributes to the feeling of wait. If a HS pitcher is going to be good, they generally move fast. Petty will probably stop in for a cup of coffee with the Reds this year if he pitches like he has been. Avg. high school players 4-5 years Avg. college players 3-4 years Fast high school players 2-3 years Fast college players 1-2 years S-Rank HS = Pitcher Brandon Finnegan (93 days) S-Rank College = 1B Nolan Schanuel (40 days), Pitcher Chris Sale (60 days)
  16. bean5302
    I'm not sure how fast Austin Martin really is. I recall Martin's arm and run tool being a 50-55-ish grade, but he's been excellent at stealing bases so he may have better wheels than the grade (or just excellent base running instincts like Dozier had). I'll wait till we get some more reliable metrics on him to categorically say he can cover CF. In any case, it'd be nice to see Martin get some reps if there's a chance he could be a starter. I think he's mostly viewed as a utility guy at this point so I'm not sure designating a position for him is all that important.
  17. bean5302
    Martin was one of the best fielding 2B in the International League last year, and 2B is a plus defensive position where corner OF is a negative.
  18. bean5302
    Yes, the Twins' preference is to have a whole bunch of players bad at playing all positions. I've seen so many comments about how Julien's defense was improving so much last year after consistent play at 2B. That's pretty natural to expect as the old saying goes, practice makes perfect. It even impacts outfielders as they learn to feel comfortable in the position, where the walls are, how far they can run flat out without running into something, how balls travel from the position's perspective.
  19. bean5302
    Supposedly, he's improved a lot. He was considered pretty rough when the Twins acquired him. Average to a little above average controlling the run game compared to other legit prospects.
  20. bean5302
    Sabato's signing bonus at age 21 ($2.75MM) is more than a working lifetime of the median per capita income in the United States, and it's 15 years of median household income in Rye Brook Village, NY where he's from. He's nearing junior status in communications studies at UNC as well. I expect he'll be fine, even if he wasn't like my dad turning coal into diamonds using only his backside assets, haha
  21. bean5302
    It's not horrible. He's had 16 plate appearances. 12.5% BB rate and an extra base hit.
  22. bean5302
    Staumont technically does have an option left, but I'm not sure the Twins will exercise it unless they feel he just needs more time to adjust from the TOS surgery.
  23. bean5302
    Farmer is a solid SS, even if he doesn't have the cannon arm that Correa has because he has a very sure glove. Farmer is just as rangey as Correa (which is to say not very), but the defensive grades on Farmer at short are solid. That's to be expected as well, since Farmer was brought in by the Twins to be our likely starting shortstop last year before re-signing Correa. Farmer's bat is MLB average. More than adequate for SS, where the ultimate utility guy would likely post 2.5 WAR in a full season.
  24. bean5302
    That's only a $1 bump from last year, but with MSP event parking rates soaring, I'm going to be trying to find some other options this year. It'd be fun to take the North Star, but I don't know as they'll run that route again, just like a few of the Twins express shuttles which vanished after 2019. Unfortunately, Uber/Lyft may not be one of them for Minneapolis if they bail May 1st. But, on a brighter note, Squirrel has palm trees around her, and the Twins pounding the Yankees, no doubt! haha
  25. bean5302
    Alcala has options, plenty of them. It puts him as the odd man out for opening day without injuries or maybe the Twins not liking what they're seeing from Topa. We've got quite a few of relievers Falvey picked up from the Island of Misfit Toys, and not all of them are likely to find homes on the 26 man. Plus injuries are inevitable so I'm sure Alcala will get some opportunities this year, I just don't think it'll be opening day.
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