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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Vazquez isn't MLB caliber, but at least his bat isn't the worst in MLB anymore. There's still some positive regression possibility for him. He could wind up at at 0.5 or maybe even 1.0 WAR with some luck? In any case, he's not a guy a playoff caliber team wants playing much, but there aren't probably a lot better options for essentially "free."
  2. bean5302
    Elite prospects almost always move through systems fast, barring serious injury. If your elite prospect is languishing around, it's a pretty good sign they're not actually elite after all. Expected time to MLB? Elite Prospects, College = 1-2 years Elite Prospects, High School = 2-3 years <--- Walker Jenkins Good Prospects, College = 2-3 years Good Prospects, High School = 3-4 years The expectation would be for Walker Jenkins to be in A+ ball by the end of the year. 2023 = Rookie/A- 2024 = A- / A+ 2025 = A+ / AA 2026 = AAA / MLB That is the path of expectations, barring injury, if Walker Jenkins is really an good MLB player in the making. Things can go sideways for a year, but not longer than that before expectations are cooled significantly. Jenkins obviously missed a ton of time at the beginning of the season with the hammy, but when he returned, he had no power whatsoever. Even now, his ISO remains poor. He's currently "better than average" in his second go 'round of Low A. Still only 158 PA in Ft Myers, but it's becoming a concern to me. Jenkins recently moved up prospect lists because of the hype machine. It's certainly not from his production. His high ranking HS peers drafted after him are performing as good or better as well. *Blake Mitchell went #8, and everybody should know the Twins need catching depth badly. In 310 plate appearances in Low A, .261/.400/.474 OPS .874 wRC+ 156. *Nobel Meyer went #10 and he's in A+ ball. College guys available at Jenkins' spot **Jacob Wilson #6 (AAA) - .446/.486/.738 OPS 1.224 wRC+ 202 **Rhett Lowder #7 (AA) - 6.52 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 **Chase Dollander #8 (A+) - 2.83 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 14.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 **Nolan Schuanel #11 (MLB) - .240/.317/.353 OPS .670 wRC+ 91. Literally played 20 games in the minors and then was called up to the big show.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah. Andrew Albers was an ace for his first 2 games in 2013, too. If 2 or 3 game sample sizes were what determined whether or not a pitcher should be considered an ace, MLB would be overflowing with them.
  4. bean5302
    I care about results, man. Not hype, and Pablo Lopez was hyped to the moon after his playoff results, just like 'ol buddy Captain Average, HoF'er Jack Morris. Now, Lopez is way better than Morris. There is only 1 season in Lopez's career where his ERA was lower 3.61, and it was a year where Lopez pitched only 102.2 innings. Lopez's ERAs have always trailed his FIPs, just like other 'ol buddy, Ricky Nolasco. When you see a major split between ERA and FIP for several years/career, it's not luck. It's a pattern. Side note, a 1.19 WHIP is mediocre. Lopez's WHIP (#41 of 73 qualified starters) is bracketed by household pitching studs like Matt Waldron 3.61 ERA/3.66 FIP and Brandon Pfaadt 4.19 ERA/3.78 FIP. Two Cy Young favorites for next year for sure.
  5. bean5302
    Well, if you can hit it where they ain't, grounders are good, haha. I've heard very good baseball players talking about how the game has changed over the past decade or two in terms of that approach. Back in the day, you could time things up on a 80mph changeup or a 85-90mph fastball. Today, so many pitchers are throwing their fastballs at 95mph or even 100mph there's just not a lot of leeway in between "just make some contact" and "try to hit it somewhere in particular" In Correa's case, it's astonishing how many of the pitches he's seeing are "down and away" Those pitches are extremely hard to lift up into line drives and hard fly balls. It sounds like Correa is trying to find a way to force pitchers to play fair and give him something in the zone. As the Twins lineup gets more and more dangerous, it'll be harder to cheat Correa as well. It's quite a testament to Correa's skills that he's able to find an approach which works. Opposing teams will have to make some decisions. 1. Throw strikes and hope Correa doesn't mash them. 2. Shift fielders to the middle and hope Correa doesn't adjust to pull the ball down the line. 3. Get killed by grounders up the middle.
  6. bean5302
    Dude looks like Rocco. Pass. LOL
  7. bean5302
    The only thing you read in that entire quote was "short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited"
  8. bean5302
    If Correa's philosophy is to hit grounders, I don't think he's going to be successful long term as teams will just adapt their fielding positioning to try and take those hits away. Surprising to see his line drive rate at a terrible 10% since June. I guess he's getting it done and his xBA and xwOBA seem to both look good overall. Him putting the ball on the ground last year was the reason so many people felt it was a career low season. Seems risky to me.
  9. bean5302
    Pablo has never been "right" by the definition fans and the writers on this site talk about. 2021 is the only time he flashed ace caliber results in his career. He's a back end #2 guy if he's "right" which he's been far away from this year.
  10. bean5302
    No joke. This whole "The Twins better be far and away the best team in all of MLB otherwise they're trash, and they have no hope!" trope is seriously BS. The Twins are a good team. An ace makes them a great team in the playoffs. In typical playoff fashion, the favorite wins the series 50-60% of the time. The Twins fans are just used to 1 and out. 1 and out. 3 and out. 1 and out. That's not how the rest of MLB works and why the Twins set an all time record among major sports (not just MLB) for consecutive playoff losses. What changed that? An elite top rotation.
  11. bean5302
    I'm not interested in back end rotation arms. Only playoff caliber arms, and specifically, pitchers would would be the best starter on the team. Bassitt maybe qualifies, but that's awfully dicey. Joe Ryan is defying all odds in performing like a legit, front end #2 this year, but he's not an ace. I mean, good on him, but I don't trust him given his 2nd half swoon every year so far. For people talking about Bassitt being a #4 2020-2024 Bassitt - 3.31 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP Lopez - 3.82 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP Berrios - 4.03 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.21 WHIP Bassitt is basically as good as Pablo Lopez, though I don't like his bump in BB rate this year. Back end #2 type of pitcher. He's playoff caliber. Berrios is a #3 at this point, and there's reason to suspect he's got some luck on his side with a .252 BABIP this year which, in concert with him being victimized by the deep ball (16.0% HR/FB) is leading to a ghastly 5.07 FIP. The article says Falvey has never paid $20MM for a pitcher. Well, Lopez is making $22MM starting next year, and it seems like a lot of fans have a genuine obsession with making sure every comment, every article, every blog post making sure they take a dig at ownership as being cheap. The Twins' payroll has been $150MM+ the past two years, they're at $131MM right now. They got their TV deal in place, and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets for a high probability of another playoff run. They made money last year thanks to advancing in the playoffs. Given the same scenario this year, I expect them to invest. Btw, a $40MM pitcher doesn't cost $40MM at the trade deadline because there's only 1/3 of the season left. $40MM = $13MM $30MM = $10MM $20MM = $7MM $10MM = $3MM None of that is likely out of payroll reach for the Twins.
  12. bean5302
    anybody who predicted Woods-Richardson would be a successful starter this year would have been laughed at. He's a totally different pitcher than last year. He's added almost 5mph to his pitches out of the blue. That's nearly unheard of. I think everybody can agree Desclafani wasn't the guy we were looking for. Miranda not making opening day was a real disappointment to me. I felt like he deserved the roster spot, and I'm glad to see him showing his skills to all the doubters and haters out there. He had a ton of them after last year.
  13. bean5302
    Kirilloff is a coaches son. Should we stick him at SS if Correa needs some time on the IL? So I think the whole "coaches son" thing is probably a little overblown. That said, Lee is super smooth and polished out there so I could understand why people would want to see him playing every day at a set position. He looks like he's a veteran fielder while Lewis looks like he's trying to force plays to be a hero too frequently. Pushing Royce into a utility role or another position? I just don't think that's realistic atm.
  14. bean5302
    That'd be a fair step forward in XBH compared to his career averages, and a big step forward in terms of plate appearances as well. Other than his freak 3 triples last year, his line is nearly identical. Projecting 400 AB's (probably 450 PA). 2021 = 18 doubles, 11 HR 2022 = 33 doubles, 13 HR 2023 = 15 doubles, 18 HR 2024 = 15 doubles, 18 HR His launch angle is 13* this year, and 3 of his 4 seasons have a 13* launch angle. He's typically a flat power stroke, line drive kinda power guy so I wouldn't expect him to ever hit a ton of dingers playing for the Twins at Target Field.
  15. bean5302
    Feel free to add your data... @wabene You too.
  16. bean5302
    Jose Miranda just continues to tear it up, and here's the kicker. Miranda's production was greater than his expected metrics early on, but just like Royce Lewis last year, that hasn't continued to be the case. As the year has worn on, Miranda's results are much more in line with actual production. The numbers he's putting up right now, and as of recent, have not been smoke and mirrors. Since 6/1 Exit Velocity 91.6mph (87%) Barrel Rate 10.4% (73%) Hard Hit Rate 45.8% (77%) Over his last 100 PA, he owns a .424 xwOBA (.457 actual). It's fun to watch!
  17. bean5302
    short lived, LOL
  18. bean5302
    You should take a look at Stuff+ on Fangraphs. It combines things like spin rate, direction, movement and the movement difference from fastball to, say, changeup. Festa's fastball overall is 104, a little better than average. His slider is even better at 120. The changeup, though. Offda. 66. That's not an MLB caliber pitch. I tend to feel Festa's fastball's complete lack of horizontal movement is going to be a problem for him, even if Stuff+ doesn't think so. If a hitter only has to pay attention to 1 axis, it feels like a pitch will be much easier to deal with. Still, Stuff+ is supposedly an excellent predictor in general. One quick correction. You don't want a 4 seam fastball to drop, you want it to "rise" even though that's technically impossible. Hitters are expecting a ball to curve downwards in an arc. When the spin of the fastball causes it to drop less than expected, it's harder to hit. League average drop rate is 13.4" The other issue for Festa is he's wild. He was clearly trying far too hard to avoid issuing walks (54% zone rate), but many of his pitches were still way outside the zone. He needs better control over his pitches, and he needs that changeup to work.
  19. bean5302
    https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/jose-ramirez-grounds-out-third-baseman-royce-lewis-to-first-baseman-edoua Lewis is a fielding work in progress, but he has the tools to be an outstanding 3rd baseman. It's going to take reps. We haven't seen enough of Lee to say how good he'll be, but his ceiling is quite a bit lower than Lewis.
  20. bean5302
    Not sure why you feel like normal back fractures involve spinal cord injury. The Twins should definitely avoid Luzardo. He's not what the Twins need, and he's going to be overly expensive.
  21. bean5302
    Generally, arbitration looks at the previous 2 years. Since Arraez started his salaries much higher 2.1 -> 6.1 -> 10.0, he had a better starting point than Castro. With Castro at 3.3MM this year, more than doubling his salary in his final arbitration year gets tougher. I don't think Castro would make more than $8MM or so at 4 WAR. He is setting himself up for a potentially big free agent payday in 2027, though.
  22. bean5302
    Lee is a poor runner (limited range), and his arm isn't as good as Lewis. Royce Lewis max throw speed 85.8mph this year, averaged 84.4 last year. Brooks Lee max throw speed 81.7mph. I loved the play Lee made with his off balance, bare hander of a throw the other day, but he simply doesn't have the physical tools Lewis does. Lee seems smooth and polished in the field, and he might be better than Lewis when it comes to errors, but you guys are really underestimating Lewis or overestimating Lee here. A little nitpick. Virtually nobody thought Brooks Lee was going much before #8. Keith Law, #7 CBS, #7 MLB, #5 Fangraphs, #8 ESPN, #7 Bleacher Report, #6 Prospects Live, #7
  23. bean5302
    Is it or is it not fractures in his vertebrae? The term "stress reaction" is used to make micro-fractures sound better. Miami put Luzardo on the 60 day IL almost immediately. 4-6 weeks is 28-42 days, and Miami really wanted to move Luzardo for cost savings and trade assets. Moving him to the 60 day IL makes it clear this is a serious injury, but this type of injury Luzardo is expected to make a full recovery. Stress reactions are very common in runners, especially new runners who ramp up too fast. Got them shins a barkin' The first time I really looked into the stress reaction was good 'ol Miguel Sano. He gained a gazillion pounds, got moved to the outfield and literally broke his legs by running on them as a result. Stress reaction. A lot of his fans blamed a ball off the shin out of the batters box, but stress reactions are not acute type injuries. Broken back is more accurate, IMHO. It gives the injury a clear definition. Fractures in bone. I'm not sure what Nick Paparesta has to do with Jesus Luzardo's recovery from his injury? Lee Meyer is Florida's head trainer. You might take broken back to mean spinal cord injury, but they're not the same.
  24. bean5302
    Unfortunately, Larnach's exit velocity, his barrel rate and hard hit rates are combined, average-ish over the past 150 PA. He had his flash in the pan, and he's been about 20% below league average on the production side of things since early May. A big part of that is a consistent .260-.270 on base percentage. Yeah, not AVG. His OBP has been consistently .260-.270 since early May because he stopped taking walks in order to reduce his K rate. I don't think Larnach is a 20% below league average hitter for the course of a season, but he's exactly who he was on a production level. League average bat, limited defensive value player. On the right team, that adds some value. I think he's probably a 1.5 WAR player over the course of a full year. Not ideal, but not a huge boat anchor. Since Larnach is out of options, his utility to the Twins is getting pretty thin.
  25. bean5302
    I'm familiar with the concept of a stress reaction. Microfractures in bones. Generally related to chronic stress of the bones/over aggressive ramp up, etc.
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