bean5302

I think you're giving Lopez a bit too much credit here. Mediocrity doesn't get you DFA'd like 17 times, haha.

Man! He's got a 5.00 ERA? That's awful! Luzardo's literally broken back is a little more concerning, of course. Lopez's 4.88 ERA is miles better. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet!

No, he turned into a crybaby unable to take responsibility for his performances last year; instead blaming a tightness in his groin when other teams sent all his pitches into the stands. Mystically, Joe Ryan was the same pitcher when he returned from the "injury" that didn't change his velocity, movement or anything else about his pitches. Kirilloff is pulling the same BS this year as an excuse for his poor plate performance, and to avoid a AAA stint.

I didn't even have to read this article, but I suppose I did anyway. No. Byron Buxton is not, was not, and never will be worth his contract. Falvey panicked when no other team in MLB saw Buxton as a superstar worth acquiring for a superstar's price in 2021 as the Twins feverishly shopped him before the trade deadline. Caught with their pants down, an angry Buxton who was the face of the franchise at the time, Falvey made one of the worst decisions as the Twins GM. He dramatically overvalued his player, and handed Buxton a 7 year contract when no other team in baseball would have given him more than 3. The fact other teams were not biting on Buxton is clear evidence on how the rest of the league viewed him. He will never be healthy. Even this year I doubt he'll play more than 100 games (if he gets to that point). Even if he does maintain his current playing pace, he's projecting as a 3 WAR player this year for $15MM on a very long term contract with a full NTC through 2026. That necessitates carrying another full time, MLB starting caliber CF on the roster, and paying that outfielder CF'er money, while not playing them full time. You simply know Buxton will be hurt for 1/2 the year. Buxton is one of the best baseball players on the planet when healthy is just hyperbole. Matt Tolbert was one of the best baseball players on the planet because he was in MLB. In his prime, Buxton was a 5-6 WAR full season (if he remained healthy for 150 G, which will never happen) category, though some analysts and Twins fans thought he was some sort of 10+ WAR guy who "turned the corner" and has "figured it out" after every single 2 week hot streak. To me, he's certainly not a guy you have to worry about potentially bringing home an MVP because there have always been significantly better players than Buxton. He's in decline at this point. Now age 30 with diminishing bat speed and power, a plethora of chronic injuries that have piled up, and having lost a step, Buxton's ceiling is probably substantially lower. Buxton cannot get on base. He doesn't take walks and his batting averages are going to hover in the low 200s range because he's a fly ball hitter with a ton of pop ups and strike outs. His BABIP is 30pts higher than his career rate right now. His xwOBA is 14pts lower than actual. His bat is a declining 20% better than league average type of asset, which is still good, but not great overall. That means a huge portion of his value is playing elite CF, but Buxton is not an elite CF anymore. He ranks 10th in UZR/150 and 15th in OAA this year. Having failed to produce during his prime on a locked-in contract, and having passed the torch of the face of the franchise along to multiple other players, Buxton is just a very good, but unreliable player whose contract is a bit of a burden.

Yeah, 4/27 to current is selective. But, I stated Farmer was "about average." Choose most dates around that range and you'll get something "about average"

Joe Ryan as of 7/1 2022 = 3.00 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.56 xFIP (39% fly balls + 16% Popups, 28% GB, 16% LD) 2023 = 3.44 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.75 xFIP (38% fly balls + 10% Popups, 34% GB, 18% LD) 2024 = 3.21 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.34 xFIP (27% fly balls + 19% Popups, 34% GB, 20% LD) The rest of the season 2022 = 4.00 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.17 xFIP 2023 = 6.09 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 3.78 xFIP 2024 = ? Unlike last year, and the year prior, Ryan's xFIP is right in line with his actual results this year suggesting major regression isn't necessarily expected. He's allowing far fewer true fly balls so far this year by exchanging them for more popups, while giving up a few more line drives. Personally, I expected the wheels to start coming off Ryan's season already, but he's been very good no matter how you slice it. Typically, how things have gone is Ryan changes up his pitches, gets by for a couple months, and then scouting reports get out and hitters tee off. Ryan's fastball is about as effective as previous years, but his splitter now at 88mph vs. 83mph last year, has played up a great deal. Ryan now has an offspeed pitch which has been valuable in addition to his fastball, and that seems to be the secret for him so far this year.

Not sarcasm. Waste your resources however you see fit.

4/27+ .263/.349/.368 wRC+ 111. Do you think I don't look this **** up before I post 99% of the time?

Mahle had been on the IL for a shoulder strain for only 3 weeks and the Reds rushed him back into action because they wanted to move his contract. Shoulder strains generally take more than 3 weeks to heal up, but the Twins took the gamble without a thorough physical and it bit them hard. Dyson is a different story because he wasn't on the IL, but he said he was battling through pain in the weeks leading up to the trade. From my understanding, big physicals aren't common before the deadline. Probably because there isn't any time to perform them, but Mahle was clearly a scenario where the Twins were giving up a lot for a guy who was back curiously fast from what is normally a longer stint. In regard to the results of Falvey's trades, they've been fine overall. Historically, the team has not gone after huge acquisitions at the deadline. Mahle probably ranks as the biggest deadline improvement attempt in team history.

Yep. They're not going to get better. Wallner and Julien are 27 and 26 next year, respectively. They're not going to become different players or a lot better. They're in their prime. Lee is entering his prime. He'll be 24 next year, which will be getting up there for a top prospect. If you don't believe those guys can produce at a 2 WAR clip already, they're not worth hanging onto while they have team control and trade value. Lee being the exception for another year. Kepler is a below average value starting position player right now. Apart from last year, he's been below average for a few years now. Serviceable. Not desireable. Farmer's been about league average at the plate since late April. While it's all fun to look at his full year stats and conclude he sucks, Farmer and Santana looked the same in April, but Santana continued to get every day at bats while Farmer was sporadically platooned and Margot got his daily play time to reverse his line. Farmer's consistently been a 1.0-2.0 WAR starter. Good enough.

2016 = 3.39 FIP 2017 = 4.19 FIP 2018 = 2.94 FIP, Cy Young 2019 = 3.32 FIP 2020 = 4.35 FIP 2021 = 3.82 FIP 2022 = 2.80 FIP 2023 = 3.44 FIP, Cy Young Better than you could expect from any Twins pitcher on the roster. Blake Snell ranks 17th in MLB for pitcher fWAR from his rookie season on (21.5) despite time missed due to pretty frequent injury woes vs. say a bottom #2 or very good #3 workhorse like Jose Berrios (19.3). Snell's biggest issue is injuries. Now, would I like Snell on a $30MM AAV contract? Nope. But if Snell is pitching well enough for a team to acquire, he's opting out of that barring serious injury anyway. Even better news, assuming the Twins ate the remainder of his contract this year, it's not $30MM, it's $10MM, but because it's $10MM, and because Snell's $30MM opt out is actually a negative, he's not going to command a huge trade deal package. Snell isn't my favorite target, but he's one I'd be interested in because if he's healthy, he becomes our #1 starter. By all means, though, skimp on the front of the rotation and do the same thing which led to the Twins not winning a single playoff game for the longest streak in pro sports history.

Farmer has no trade value. If Lee is such a massive upgrade over him, he's also an upgrade over Kepler.

Trade them all, then. If they can't produce at a 2.0 WAR level, they're of no future value.

Another series win against another (over .500) team. Despite all the narrative being spread for a while now that the team can only beat up on bottom feeders, the Twins have won or tied like 7 series' against playoff caliber teams this year. Trevor Larnach hasn't been great for a good portion of the season at this point. He had an 11 game scorching hot streak from 4/22-5/5, but outside that, he's been solidly below average when it comes to production. The rolling xwOBA suggests he's probably been unlucky, but things like batted ball data, exit velocity and barrels say he's been league average-ish at best. He seems kinda like the same guy he was, just more aggressive at the plate trying to generate contact rather than taking walks or striking out. Don't get me wrong, I love what he did to win the game yesterday, but he's a 1.5 WAR full season guy. Good enough to start on a team who really needs a corner outfielder, but not ideal for a playoff caliber team. Pay special note to how his OBP is extremely consistent through the same sizes. .260-.270 OBP just isn't going to play at a high level in MLB. Last 10 = 38 PA, .243/.263/.514 OPS .777 wRC+ 115 Last 20 = 68 PA, .235/.264/.397 OPS .661 wRC+ 84 11-30 = 71 PA, .203/.268/.359 OPS 627 wRC+ 78 Last 30 = 101 PA, .218/.266/.416 OPS .682 wRC+ 91 11-40 = 98 PA, .214/.271/.347 OPS .618 wRC+ 77 21-40 = 73 PA .209/.274/.388 OPS .662 wRC+ 89 Last 40 = 145 PA, .222/.269.393 OPS .662 wRC+ 87

Another series He didn't boot the ball. I don't even have an idea where you're coming from on this? He slid because it was critical to stop the ball from getting to the outfield and the play was at the very edge of his range. Santana screwed that play. Just like the gold glove defensive hero didn't catch/stop a ball from Miranda that led to a loss the other day. If Santana doesn't lay there on the ground and gets up to try to cover first, that's still an out. If he doesn't distract the **** out of Martin telling him to try and make a risky throw/play at 2B, Martin may have even been able to beat the runner to 1B. Martin wisely held onto that ball rather than trying to force a play he didn't feel comfortable with.

Kepler is a league average bat with pretty good defense in right field at this point. Considering the level of talent in St. Paul, there are going to be players who are likely to perform as well or better than Kepler. Is Wallner a AAA player? Is Julien a AAA player? Is Lee a AAA player? Is Keirsey a AAA player? They're on a AAA roster, but there are plenty of people who support the idea at least one of them or even all of them are better than a typical "AAA replacement player."

I'm all for Snell if he's pitching like the ace he was last year. If Snell finishes the season out strong, he is not going to opt in to $30MM. He's going to take his 5yrs $100MM vs. risking another down year. The Twins have never traded for an ace mid year to the best of my memory. Snell shouldn't really be that expensive, if available, due to the rough start to the season and his current payroll. Joe Ryan's having a career year right now, and there's nothing in his advanced metrics to suggest there's huge regression coming, and Lopez has not pitched dominantly this year. The Twins really need a #1 starter to take Gray's spot for the playoffs.

I was talking about his last few starts overall. Not in regard to whether he was consistently great during the game. It's expected a pitcher will run into at least a little trouble during a game no matter how good they are.

I don't know about Larnach. He's pumpkin-izing back to his old self in terms of production. Pitch Type Pitch % Exp. Pitches 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fastball 28% 448 4 2 0 18 Slider 18% 288 -4 7 2 -5 Changeup 18% 288 -8 -7 -2 -10 Curveball 11% 176 1 -4 -3 -3 Sinker 9% 144 -3 4 2 -3 Cutter 6% 96 -4 -4 5 5 Splitter 5% 80 0 -6 4 -3 Other 5% 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1600 Haven't posted an update on his pitch weakness in a bit, but it's clear the offspeed and breaking stuff is starting to give him near universal fits again. Last 20 games 72 PA .224/.264/.388 OPS .652 wRC+ 83, 5.6% BB, 15.3% K Last 30 games 109 PA .200/.257/.370 OPS .627 wRC+ 77, 7.3% BB, 16.5% K He's not the same hitter as he was in year past. He's more aggressive at the plate and it did pay dividends during a searing 11 game hot streak 4/22-5/8, but outside that, his production has been pretty poor. It seems Larnach likely truly cannot identify non-fastballs like I had assumed for a years now. Comments about a shortened swing to help him make adjustments as the reason he was turning a corner made sense, but it just seems more likely he's at his limits. xwOBA suggests Larnach has been victimized by bad luck, but most of his Statcast data has been average to above average over the past few weeks. Statcast's rolling 100 plate appearances suggests Larnach's xwOBA is well above average, but I don't see much which would tie to that. 5/17-6/29 = 101 PA 17.3% Line Drive (poor), 48.1% Ground Ball (poor), 14.3% HR:FB rate (good), 90.9mph (avg), 9.9% barrel (above average), 37.0% hard hit (below average).

Yeah, Jenkins has had a pretty awful start to the season without even considering the nasty hamstring pull. .219/.320/.313 OPS .633 wRC+ 89 with no power in 75 plate appearances. Taking more walks, and striking out a little more than last year in his repeat of Low A, but the big issue has been the evaporation of power. I don't really trust low minors batted ball data, but right now, showing Jenkins with a 40% pop up rate. Wonder if the Twins are having him work on something which just isn't working?

a20 A+, Rayne Doncon = .250/.345/.411 OPS .756 wRC+ 116 a21 A+, Noah Miller = .250/.328/.348 OPS .676 wRC+ 95

Lopez's last games have been pretty inconsistent. He needs to be better to justify the position the Twins were expecting him to fill. 1) Great 2) Great 3) Awful 4) Acceptable 5) Awful 6) Great 7) Awful 8) Awful 9) Poor 10) Great

It comes down to a few things. a) Will the Twins make a QO to Kepler? The answer to that is 90% no. He's been a 2 WAR right fielder, heavily assisted by his now declining defense with a league average bat. Even if he turns it on for the second half again and finishes up with 3 WAR again this year, he's probably taking the QO. For a guy who's made $42MM over his 10 years, a $21MM single year payday is going to be pretty amazing, and his age bracket really doesn't change going from a32 to a33 in Free Agency. b) Let's say Kepler turns down the QO (unlikely). I don't think his contract value exceeds 3-4yrs at $30-36MM. Kepler's not going to get a contract over $50MM. So the most the Twins stand to lose is a Comp B pick. c) What is Kepler's trade value at the deadline? Is it higher than Comp B, which is the absolute maximum the Twins could potentially hope to get from making the QO? I'd wager a organization 15-20 prospect or a role player on an expiring contract. d) Can the Twins replace Kepler on the roster? Yes. As of right now, Kepler is a 2 WAR type of player. Wallner, Lee, Julien, Severino, whomever you favor in the Twins prospect list as the next big thing could easily step in and fill a 2 WAR player's shoes. e) Who gets Kepler in a trade? A potential playoff team. Meaning the Twins will be making a playoff team they'll have to face later potentially better by one Mr. Maximilian Kepler, who can totally afford another ticket with his Porsche. Potential suitors? Probably the Phillies are the best bet. Maybe acquire a guy like Caleb Ricketts to add some catching depth? Should the Twins make a deal like this? My answer is... probably. Depends on the standings, injury situation, and a willing trade partner where the Twins get an actual return of something.

That's even worse, people don't know it exists, LOL

The easiest way to get an ace is to find Johan Santana and get him to unretire. He's probably fine to pitch. Who needs a left shoulder anyway? I saw Rick Aguilera in an interview recently. Looks like he probably body shames guys at Gold's Gym. Man that guy is in great shape. Probably ready to go.