Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,507

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    He has a history of shoulder trouble. Drafted in 2020, obviously didn't play. Shoulder strain wiped out his entire 2021 season. Shoulder strain returned mid 2022 season. He's been limited to a pitch count of about 40-60 since. The level of kid gloves the Twins are using with Raya is pretty concerning. The only conclusion I'm able to come to is his performance during games drops off fast. I think moving Raya to the bullpen and shortening the length of his appearances is warranted.
  2. bean5302
    Going from 62 to 75 is totally insignificant. At that pace, Raya wouldn't be ready as a full time starter for about 9 more years.
  3. bean5302
    Historically, Wallner has hit lefties hard. If he's fine against RHP, he'll be fine against LHP, not that Baldelli's macro would ever allow Wallner to face a lefty.
  4. bean5302
    Buxton's probably a 3 WAR player going forward. He's actually been remarkably healthy (for him) so far this year. I'd expect Buxton's career to finish up around 30 WAR. His Full NTC drops off after 2026 with a 5 team trade list at that point. I don't think Buxton will finish his contract with the Twins as I think the Twins will be looking to trade him as soon as they can to get some relief from the ill-fated extension with the $15MM baseline salary. That said, nobody can deny he's been an hugely successful player in MLB with a career very few ever have.
  5. bean5302
    Positional value for catchers is +12.5 runs. 1.25 WAR. Defense for Vazquez is currently projecting as +20.0 runs. That's 2.00 WAR over a full season. His bat has been worth -53.0 runs over a full season. Yes. That's not hyperbole. His bat directly loses 5 games for the Twins this year vs. an average AAA player. Christian Vazquez is not a viable MLB player. The Twins should be looking for a back up catcher so they can DFA Vazquez.
  6. bean5302
    I think it's a good call. Festa probably is who he is at this point. Not saying there isn't more refinement in his game in the future, but I don't think there's anything left for him to work on based on his AAA experience. Time for him to meet MLB batters, and find out if his stuff plays in the big show now or if there are a couple things he needs to work on. The varying models have Festa projected at 3.84 - 4.45 ERA, not that they're worth anything for pitchers, I don't think haha.
  7. bean5302
    Funny thing about "facts" there are a lot of them and you can pick and choose which ones you use. I imagine Baldelli's status will work itself out naturally this year with Falvey's contract ending.
  8. bean5302
    Look up the definition of error. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/standard-stats/error Definition A fielder is given an error if, in the judgment of the official scorer, he fails to convert an out on a play that an average fielder should have made. I'm no Buxton apologist, but the average fielder doesn't make that play. That play is very similar to "The Catch" by Willie Mays.
  9. bean5302
    Varland couldn't have remained on the 26 man. Only a double-header technicality allowed Varland to pitch in his last game because his option was used less than 10 days prior his double-header appearance. The double-header allowed Varland to be called up for a day, but he was required to immediately go back to St. Paul because of the option waiting period rules. Canterino hasn't even faced legit competition. The guy has 34 total innings at AA, the highest he's ever reached, and that was 2 years ago. He walked an unsustainable 5.8 per 9 innings at that level with a 3.15 FIP and 4.74 xFIP. Nobody knows how his stuff will play. Free Anthony Slama!!!
  10. bean5302
    Matt Wallner does not need to hit the high inside pitch. Was Wallner weak against inside pitches, especially high up? Yep. His final position was super close to the plate = lots of HBP last year. Since his final position in his stance/swing was so close to the plate with his front leg, he was weak to being jammed. Almost all MLB players have a "hole in their swing." Pitchers aren't accurate to within an inch or two of where they place their pitches. Throwing high/inside = HBP or BBs a lot. It also means missing their spot middle/high, middle/middle and watching Wallner put the ball in the seats. If a pitcher can perfectly place their pitches, not many MLB hitters are going to be successful against them. Not sure what Wallner's problem was, but it certainly felt "mental" to me.
  11. bean5302
    Matthews has the lowest FIP of any pitcher (starter or reliever) in all of AA with 30+ innings pitched (Matthews has 40 IP) Home runs? Not allowed. Walks? Never hands them out. Strikeouts? Lots. ERA rank #10 FIP rank #1 K%-BB% rank #1 - T K/BB rank #1 WHIP rank #1 HR/9 rank #10 SwStr rank #35 *Popup rate 29% vs. FB% 32%... only 3% (1) of his fly balls wasn't a pop up, and the only one was a home run. (you know... that one time) BABIP .247 LOB 68.8% *Nothing there out of the ordinary in terms of luck, but batted ball data from MiLB is kinda sketchy. AAA is fine, but it should be sooner than later. If there were results which warranted a skip of AAA, it's what Matthews has done this year. There's literally nothing to work on in terms of results. The only thing a team might be able to test is whether or not AAA hitters, with a little more polish, can better lay off Matthew's pitches and draw walks.
  12. bean5302
    With Keaschall, Fangraphs talked about him being borderline (like 50 other guys). At the time the Fangraphs update came out, Keaschell was hitting at an exceptional wRC+ 171 in A+. He's since been promoted to AA and continued to hit well, but the production has fallen off a bit to still very good wRC+ 140. It's inflated with a .397 BABIP, though. Fangraphs noted Keaschell will need to get his defense up quite a bit in CF to solidify his top 100 status. Raya is in nobody's top 100 anymore. He's probably not even top 200 at this point since he's still capped in the 50s for pitch count. MIRP is what he projects as now. Gonzalez is going to be questionable for anybody's mid season top 100 updates as he was already in that border group, but he's lost a huge chunk of the season with a back injury. Good news is he's begun a rehab assignment as of 4 days ago. He's going to be rusty AF, but hopefully, he's got a wire wheel and some Evaporust he can use None of the 3 should be viewed as solidly accepted top 100 prospects right now, and Keaschall is probably the only one with a fair chance at appearing on a list after the draft.
  13. bean5302
    I'd take Matthews over him right now, TBH
  14. bean5302
    I'm glad you've seen the light on Wallner's skills. Clearly gold glove 2B in his future.
  15. bean5302
    The fact Caleb Boushley isn't on this list feels like an oversight. Festa has not been the best starter for the Saints this year, it's been Boushley, honestly. Boushley vs. Festa Season ERA 3.52 vs. 3.77 FIP 3.65 vs. 3.93 WHIP 1.03 vs. 1.29 HR/9 1.00 vs. 1.36 K% 22.1% vs. 35.1% BB% 3.2% vs. 9.7% K-BB% 18.9% vs. 25.4% Last 5 Games ERA 2.10 vs. 4.56 FIP 3.20 vs. 3.65 WHIP 0.90 vs. 1.05 HR/9 0.60 vs. 1.40 K% 21.4% vs. 34.3% BB% 3.6% vs. 4.9% Boushley is a journeyman MiLB soft-tosser in the mold of the Terry Ryan draftees and Rick Anderson students of old. The Kevin Slowey's of the world, if you will. Boushley's stuff rating from Statcast shows his slider and changeup are legitimate plus pitches while his curve is a tick below average. His 4 seam and sinker are well below average in terms of stuff. His location shows average overall, but let's be honest, he's going to need to be Kevin Slowey-ish to be successful at the MLB level. Pinpoint control required. In his favor, Boushly is also already on the 40 man. Festa is flashy with the big K's, but he's been inconsistent and victimized by the long ball this year. I don't think it's a problem to start the 24 year old's clock at this point, and he probably does have a higher upside than Boushley. It it was for a spot start, I'd take Boushley.
  16. bean5302
    Signed out of Indy league where he was tearing it up. Undrafted so he doesn't have the MiLB experience. Tough to say how good he is, but the Twins bumped him to A+ already. Probably on the "prove it" fast track.
  17. bean5302
    Tough to say. From a surplus value estimate $32MM. I'd imagine he'd probably bring back something similar to Dylan Cease (who had more team control and cost a lot less, but wasn't as reliably good), but probably a bit more. This isn't like when an elite pitcher with a lot of control is moved. Padres parted with 1 Top 100, plus their #7 and #8 prospects. I'd guess Gonzalez + Festa + Raya and maybe Kala'i Rosario or Keaschall. Something like that. If Arizona insisted on a Jenkins/Lee/Rodriquez component, probably drops them into 1 + 2 (10-20s) guys. Smaller package in numbers and quality in the back end of the deal.
  18. bean5302
    Matthews, Morris, Nowlin, and Ohl have all seen pitch counts into the 80s pretty reliably at AA. Lewis is being stretched out after returning from injury. Raya is a long reliever masquerading as a starter. His limit is in the 50s, pretty much same as last year and the end of the previous year.
  19. bean5302
    Lee has 14 games in AAA. Last 14 games, Wallner is better. If you add in the entirety of Brooks Lee's experience in AAA and go back that many games for Wallner, Wallner is better since Lee couldn't even hold his own last year.
  20. bean5302
    Trades for quality depth are not uncommon. Margot and Farmer will be viewed as quality depth if they've both been hitting well since May. Both players would be on a pace for a 1.0 WAR type season if they keep hitting like they have been until after the break. 3 teams in the chase have -0.1 to 0.5 WAR at 3B right now 2 teams in the chase have -1.1 to 0.3 WAR at SS right now 4 teams in the chase have -1.6 to 0.5 WAR at 2B right now 8 teams in the chase have -0.8 to 0.4 WAR at RF right now 6 teams in the chase have -0.4 to 0.4 WAR in LF right now Not all those teams have a huge budget to add cost. There will be a market for Farmer and Margot if they're close to league average at the plate.
  21. bean5302
    I'd be targeting Zac Gallen rather than Monty, who has been down on velo this year. Montgomery's last 3 starts have been pretty good, though, so there's reason to keep an eye on him and see. Gallen is a guy the Twins could hang on to another year.
  22. bean5302
    Hmmmm... Trout's on the IL, right?
  23. bean5302
    Not sure why you think Lee has the inside track to the roster ahead of Wallner... or honestly even Julien. Wallner is on the 40 man. Wallner's bat has been more productive than Lee's during Lee's tenure at AAA Wallner has a spot in the outfield.
  24. bean5302
    Lopez 5.1 IP average Ryan 6.0 IP average Ober 5.1 IP average Paddack 5.1 IP average SWR 5.0 average The difference between the starters, other than Ryan, is pretty insignificant.
  25. bean5302
    Varland is maybe a possibility since he only threw 2.1 innings on 6/23 while getting rocked in AAA. That'd leave him on 4 days rest for Paddack's previously scheduled 6/27 start. Caleb Boushley is my guess. He's already on the 40 and he owns a 2.10 ERA over his last 5 starts in AAA. He last pitched on 6/22 which gives him 5 days rest.
×
×
  • Create New...