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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Woof!!!! This trade. Wooooooooof! Bernardino isn't worth much as a 32 year old reliever with a good, but not great history, and you do not ever trade a cost controlled, premium MLB position player for a middle reliever. While he has a sparkly 1.69 ERA and a 2.76 FIP, that's because Bernardino hasn't surrendered a single home run this year which is not sustainable. His xFIP is 4.10 and his SIERA is 4.00. He's going to regress. I've never been Julien's biggest fan, but the idea a two month reset in AAA takes a guy who was easily more valuable than Brooks Lee now sets the guy down to near PTBNL status is far too pessimistic. Boston would be signing papers and calling security to evict Bernardino from his hotel room before the phone call was even over. Eduoard Julien's trade value is still showing at over +30 at Baseballtradevalues (reviewing prosposed trades) which included a trade to the White Sox for Eric Fedde and Tanner Banks pretty much all on Julien's own.
  2. bean5302
    Generally, future WAR x 8 - future salary = approximate surplus value. Pablo Lopez is probably $80MM - $69MM = $11MM surplus. He's about to start earning that $22MM a year and he looks like a 3 WAR pitcher. Not a lot of excess value there.
  3. bean5302
    Santana absolutely 100% kept Miranda from playing at the start of the season.
  4. bean5302
    Jenkins -> Cedar Rapids, Gonzalez -> Wichita, Rodriguez -> St. Paul is the likely train of events after the trade deadline.
  5. bean5302
    I wouldn't have criticized them because that's exactly what I wanted them to do. There are always some waiver wire pick up guys who were as good as Santana was on average over his previous few seasons. It turns out, the Twins didn't need Santana.
  6. bean5302
    I think everybody is aware Santana is superior to Miranda at 1B. Most people, including myself, don't care. 1 WAR = 10 runs saved. .030 of OPS = 1 WAR-ish Miranda +4 WAR over Santana offensively. Maybe -1 WAR under Santana defensively. It's not a wash. Assuming Miranda played the same at the plate, he's a much more valuable player than Santana.
  7. bean5302
    Bannon was acquired for cash and he's not on the 40 man. Diego Castillo was called up, but maybe the Twins suspect Castillo will be claimed if they DFA him, but they're still planning on DFA'ing him and want a backup on the roster because they expect him to be claimed if they do. If the Twins move Eeles down to A+ ball from AAA to make the A+ team better, that'd enrage MLBPA.
  8. bean5302
    For those folks wondering what the heck xERA is, it's based on xwOBA. Pablo Lopez never seems to perform up to his sparkly expected metrics. Some pitchers outperform expectations consistently (Verlander) and some underperform (Lopez).
  9. bean5302
    Speaking of Eeles, he's looking good at AAA, too. .231/.444/.385 .154 ISO OPS .829 16.7% BB, 13.9% K rate wRC+ 134 in just 36 PA. What a fun story so far. I wonder how well Eeles will have to play to earn a call to the big show? I'm guessing the Twins are feeling no pressure to make the move now that Eeles is at a level appropriate for his age. Maybe a September call up?
  10. bean5302
    Crochet probably isn't going anywhere. The Twins will need to target guys with less team control or a higher AAV cost like Blake Snell, Zac Gallen or Sonny Gray. So what would say, Blake Snell cost? We'll assume he pitches well in his next two starts vs. the Dodgers in L.A. and Rockies in S.F., but SF is still willing to move him because they're still 9 games back of the division and 3 games back from the Wild Card (under .500). Snell's probably a rental, and a cheap one at that. His 2024 salary is only $15MM, meaning he's only going to cost the acquiring team $5MM, though if he has a bad 2nd half or gets hurt, his $30MM player option is scary, but it doesn't come with a single lump sum hit as $15MM is deferred until 2027. It's hard to gauge the cost of Snell, but a 6-10 and a 11-15 type should get it done. Not sure what SF would target as their primary interest.
  11. bean5302
    I'm not in agreement with this article. Carlos Santana's competition was not really Rhys Hoskins, it was Jose Miranda. The Twins picked Santana and $5MM less to work with. Meanwhile, Jose Miranda has far outpaced Santana's production. It's a net loss even though Santana's been good after a horrible start to the season. Hoskins started the season hot and has been cold since if I remember right. I'm skeptical Santana's hot production will continue, btw. Santana's xwOBA is right in line with his actual production, but by virtually every advanced contact metric, he's average, and he's lost his excellent walk rates. Expecting the above average production to continue seems optimistic. Margot can't play center field and is barely serviceable in the corners at this point. Plus his bat's been awful. He wasn't the right target as -0.2 WAR isn't a good choice, even at only $4MM net. The good news here is the trade doesn't have to be viewed in a vacuum as Doncon has caught (and probably passed) Noah Miller and his exceptional defense. Michael A. Taylor +0.3 WAR and and Kevin Kiermaier +0.1 WAR are still excellent CF defenders, and that's what the Twins needed. The Twins needed a multi-year, team controlled center fielder to back up Buxton. Their internal option was Austin Martin, and he's been better than Margot. The external free agent option was Cody Bellinger, but that seemed awfully far-fetched. I proposed trading for Jarren Duran (preferably) or Wilyer Abreu (consolation prize) in last year's offseason simulator.
  12. bean5302
    The Twins desperately need an ace. They don't have one, and if they want to advance in the playoffs, they likely need one. Solid starters get you to the postseason, and swept right back out of it. Last year is the very first time the Twins entered the playoffs in the last decade with a strong 1-2 in Gray and Lopez. Right now, I don't feel comfortable going up against opponents top 3 starters with our guys.
  13. bean5302
    No MLB franchise trades for Festa before Woods Richardson. Honestly, I was pretty surprised BA still had Festa listed as top 100 despite the obvious issues he put on display. The Twins should capitalize on any team interested in Festa as a centerpiece for a major trade.
  14. bean5302
    Matt Wallner was about average defensively last year in the corners, and he has the skills to be well above average with some consistent playing time in a single position. Wallner gets a bad jump from slow reads on contact. No guarantee it'll ever improve as Brent Rooker hardly panned out well despite MLB average speed and a pretty strong arm. 2023 OF - 487.2 Innings UZR/150 = -0.4 DRS/yr = +2 OAA = -4 Rtot/yr = +2
  15. bean5302
    ...actually, I called for it a couple weeks ago over Festa, haha.
  16. bean5302
    Hell yeah!!! Can't wait to see him torch AAA hitters. Get him a couple starts to prove he's got the stuff and get him in the rotation to replace Paddack where he will undoubtedly continue to strike out lots of people walk nobody and allow nobody to hit fly balls out of the infield. Yes. That's what I'm going to go with. I like that future.
  17. bean5302
    I mean, he's produced 0 WAR this year so it seems likely the Jays just want him off the books if they can swing it. Open it up to everybody. One free Kevin Kiermaier, slightly used, comes with $4MM salary remaining.
  18. bean5302
    I've noticed there is a lot Wallner hate on Twins Daily. Not sure if it's just a popularity thing or what? His K rate last year was right in line with other players like Julien, Larnach, Buxton, Taylor, and Jeffers. I expect Wallner to continue to have a steady K rate in the low 30s, though it may improve a bit over time.
  19. bean5302
    On the pitching side of things. Happily Surprised Joe Ryan - 3.53 ERA, 3.44 FIP SWR - 3.51 ERA, 3.69 FIP Jorge Alcala - 1.56 ERA, 2.82 FIP Cole Sands - 3.52 ERA, 2.84 FIP Griffin Jax - 1.91 ERA, 1.96 FIP About what I expected Josh Staumont - 2.83 ERA, 4.24 FIP Steven Okert - 3.86 ERA, 4.02 FIP Louie Varland - 6.48 ERA, 4.32 FIP David Festa - 7.06 ERA, 4.38 FIP Jay Jackson - 7.52 ERA, 5.44 FIP Bailey Ober - 4.14 ERA, 3.93 FIP Chris Paddack - 4.99 ERA, 4.18 FIP Jhoan Duran - 2.93, 4.24 FIP Big disappointments Pablo Lopez - 5.11 ERA, 3.83 FIP Brock Stewart - 0.68 ERA, 2.94 FIP Kody Funderburk - 5.61 ERA, 4.65 FIP Caleb Thielbar - 5.64 ERA, 4.61 FIP The biggest positive is Simeon Woods Richardson. He's been huge and totally unexpected. I'd written him off after another year of consistently poor performance in the minors. He's sustained his success, and there is reason to expect he can continue being effective enough in the rotation at this point. I think he's outperforming expectations at the moment, but it couldn't have come at a better time. First half Joe Ryan showed up again, and I'm happy to see it. I hope his last 2 starts isn't the beginnings of the appearance of second half Joe Ryan. In the bullpen, it has to be Jax. He's been truly elite, and it's made up for hiccups from Jhoan Duran this year. Biggest disappointments? Pablo Lopez. While his FIP is right about where I'd expect, the ERA is not. He's put the Twins in a hole time and again this year for a guy who is about to be making $20MM a year. It's been tough to watch especially with the departure of Gray. In the bullpen, Kody Funderburk. I was expecting him to be very good this year as I didn't expect Thielbar to be a long term asset, but reevaluating Funderburk as a lefty option has to happen at this point. Bummer.
  20. bean5302
    Happily Surprised Carlos Correa - Expected wRC+ 130ish 4 WAR pace Willi Castro - Expected wRC+ 105ish 2.5 WAR pace Jose Miranda - Expected wRC+ 120ish 2.5 WAR pace Carlos Santana - Expected wRC+ 95ish 1 WAR pace About what I expected Trevor Larnach - Expected wRC+ 100ish 1.5 WAR pace Ryan Jeffers - Expected wRC+ 105ish 3 WAR pace. Brooks Lee - Expected wRC+ 100ish 1.5 WAR pace. Austin Martin - Expected wRC+ 95ish 1 WAR pace. Manuel Margot - Expected wRC+ 90ish 1 WAR pace. Alex Kirilloff - Expected wRC+ 100ish 0 WAR pace. Big disappointments Royce Lewis - Expected wRC+ 160ish, 6 WAR pace. Kyle Farmer - Expected wRC+ 100ish, 2 WAR pace. Matt Wallner - Expected wRC+ 150ish, 4 WAR pace. Edouard Julien - Expected wRC+ 110ish, 3 WAR pace. Max Kepler - Expected wRC+ 120ish, 3 WAR pace. Christian Vazquez - Expected wRC+ 80ish, 2 WAR pace. My confidence production levels stay the same varies based on the player. The biggest boost has been Jose Miranda. The production won't continue at wRC+ 150, but it might settle in at 130, and that's absolutely huge. Having a high contact guy to replace Luis Arraez and make the game more interesting is really nice. The biggest disappointment has been Royce Lewis and the gut punch of his opening day injury derailing my expectations he'll likely ever be healthy.
  21. bean5302
    Wallner has produced the following since his return. .364 AVG functional, at least .462 OBP seems pretty okay .727 SLG adequate 1.189 OPS I mean, I'll take it even if I'd like to see a lot more. He'd be on pace for 93 RBI in a 162 game season. Also, why do you care about K ratio? That's a pretty modern stat.
  22. bean5302
    Alex Kirilloff has negative trade value. Can we compromise at no trade value. Below league average bat DH who is constantly hurt. A career 0.1 WAR in 900 plate appearances making $1.4MM.
  23. bean5302
    I expect the Guardians to have some serious regression, but they've carried a lot of luck their way until pretty late into the season already. Regression doesn't generally all happen at once so there's probably not enough time left for the Guardians to drop to 3rd in the AL Central, but it's where they should be at this point.
  24. bean5302
    Oh man, that feels like the perfect opportunity for a satire article.
  25. bean5302
    I think Correa is probably day to day and waiting to see how his heel responds to a week of rest. Last year, 2 weeks off for a much more serious case was enough to make a dramatic difference for him. Diego Castillo is a26 and he's posted solid numbers in AAA. Given the fact he's about to run out of options, giving him a look is a good idea. He's only had one significant opportunity to show his stuff at the top level with Pittsburgh in 2022 at age 24 where he struggled quite a bit. There's been a marked improvement in his BB rate and his K rate at AAA since then so he might be serviceable as a utility guy and Farmer won't be back next year.
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