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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The Twins haven't played any of those teams recently, except the Phillies, who were the best team in baseball before the Twins took the series and pushed them to the brink of a sweep. Meanwhile, the Twins have beaten the teams who've been the best in MLB since June 1st on a regular basis, and in fact, the TWINS are the 5th best team in the MLB since 6/1 (31-23). Min (2-1) vs. Ari #1 (35-20) .636 Min (1-2) vs. NYM #2 (35-20) .636 Min (3-2) vs. Hou #3 (32-22) .593 Min (2-1) vs. Bos* #4 (31-22) .585 Minnesota Twins #5 (31-23) .574 The Twins haven't played Boston since June 1 so I included their earlier series result.
  2. bean5302
    I don't think the Twins wanted to transform Dobnak as much as Dobnak wanted to transform himself into a legitimate MLB rotation arm. He has permanent ligament damage to his middle finger, and it will never heal back to where it was prior to the rupture so he needed to make changes. Based on his results, and his lack of command, it seems like he's not quite there yet. He probably looks a lot better if Buxton was playing CF last night, but even under advanced metrics, he's been borderline serviceable. The slider and changeup are almost identical, and that kind of reduces Dobnak to a 2 pitch pitcher. To compound that, the sinker has the same movement profile as the changeup so hitters know what direction all his pitches are going to move, just not exactly how much they'll move.
  3. bean5302
    It's a pity Martin can tell where the ball will be when he's running the base paths, just not so much when he's playing CF, haha.
  4. bean5302
    FIP is a predictive stat, but as we approach a full season, ERA is more important to me. What actually happened vs. what a spreadsheet thinks should have happened. Looking at FIP vs. ERA, you can get a feel for how you might expect things to play out going forward. At a team level, having the two be way out of sync is unusual so you might expect a correction going forward. I prefer bWAR over fWAR for pitchers when looking at multiple years, but I generally prefer fWAR over bWAR during the season.
  5. bean5302
    I find Buxton's contract and production to be pretty difficult to quantify. In terms of raw production, I think Buxton's contract is worth it on a year to year basis comparing it to "free agency" value. But, Buxton wasn't a free agent, and teams pay more like $2.5MM/WAR on average because of cost controlled players. Furthermore, the $8MM per WAR value is what teams actually get, not what they try to pay. It seems to me teams try to buy WAR at $6MM, but players often underperform expectations due to injury or decline. The resulting net cost winds up being $8MM. I don't believe for a single second any team in baseball would have given Buxton north of 3 years had he hit free agency after the 2021 season, and the inability of the Twins to find a trade partner when they were trying to move him in 2021 should have made it more clear how the rest of the league valued him. In that regard, I think the Twins overpaid market value by a country mile. After 2022's 3.5 fWAR season, again hampered by a half season on the IL, I doubt Buxton could have gotten more than 2 years at $40MM. Buxton should always be backed up by an MLB caliber starting center fielder because expecting more than about 80 games a year out of him is unreasonable. In a full year, which will 100% never happen, Buxton is a 5-6 WAR player. Perennial All Star Caliber. He's never going to win an MVP or come close to it because he can't get on base, but his fielding and power more than make up for that, in the half season where he's healthy. I thought the Buxton extension reeked of panic by the front office, and I still think it was a panic button decision. It was a bad decision overall, but the impact wasn't felt until the Pohlad's decided to reverse course on their commitment to the team and process.
  6. bean5302
    Pablo Lopez through 8/6 2023 - 4.01 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.42 xFIP 2024 - 4.74 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 3.30 xFIP I feel pretty strongly people are misremembering Lopez's 2023 performance based on his outstanding playoff results. Similar to Jack Morris getting credit for "Game 7" despite him hardly being close to elite across his career. Lopez is a case of "he should be better" but he's generally not. He did have an insane little run with 3 starts in a row not allowing a run 8/7-8/18 last year, but outside that and a couple games right at the start of the season, he was pretty much a 4.00 ERA guy all year.
  7. bean5302
    Just because he's called up doesn't mean you'll see him.
  8. bean5302
    The Twins failure to acquire a long term real CF'er backup for Buxton this past offseason may come back to bite them. With Rodriguez missing so much time this year, it's going to be hard for him to get enough plate appearances to be ready for the MLB roster next season, and Willi Castro is about to get real expensive with an ownership group seemingly looking to aggressively cut costs. I don't see the Twins finding $7-8MM in the budget for Castro. Austin Martin is adequate as a backup utility outfielder, but the Twins are extremely lucky Buxton has played as much as he has this year. The Twins need a starting caliber outfielder who can play CF when Buxton is hurt.
  9. bean5302
    I think it's very clear the front office wasn't happy with the strikeouts last year based on the changes to the roster. The most reasonable conclusion is a change of this type was brought on by analytics. Many of us suspect that high K rates for multiple players in the lineup significantly depresses average run production. The front office certainly has the resources to crunch those numbers.
  10. bean5302
    If only people could watch the games! LOL
  11. bean5302
    He faced 5 hitters yesterday and threw 25 pitches. As a starter, that's nothing. Not sure how the Twins plan to use him, but I'd think Dobnak would be available if they wanted him to pitch again.
  12. bean5302
    Yeah, Stuff+ is a tool which quantifies movement, velocity, location, etc in terms of how effective pitches are in against batters. It takes into consideration movement of offspeed/breaking pitches vs. the fastball as well. Supposedly Stuff+ is very quick to become reliable in terms of results and it's more predictive of results as a whole. I use it as a kind of quick double check. Dobnak's changeup seems insane because it looks like his sinker, but has crazy amounts of drop. Honesty, if Dobnak had a decent four seamer, that changeup might be unhittable. He's throwing 92mph sinkers. Not exactly an Eephus pitch, even if it's not Jhoan Duran out there. Dobnak's average fastball is higher than Ober, for example. His changeup has been dropping 10" more than league average (ultra elite). The slider at 83mph is middle of MLB velo for that pitch and it's movement is above average.
  13. bean5302
    Buxton's 19th in the AL (33rd in MLB) for fWAR among position players. He's lower than Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker, who've both played fewer games in the AL. Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich and Patrick Bailey have more fWAR in fewer games in the NL. Let's also consider the top players vs. Buxton in regard to the gap. Top 5 AL range from Duran 5.3 to Judge 7.7. Top 5 NL range from Bailey 3.8 to Ohtani 5.7. Buxton isn't really all that close to any of them. The gap between Byron Buxton and the top 4 in each league is the same distance as Byron Buxton and the 178th position player in MLB. Categorizing Buxton as good might be a slight if you want to get nitpicky. He's been very good, but not elite.
  14. bean5302
    It all depends on how much shine you thought was on him. He certainly looks like a serviceable #4-5 starter to me, and considering he was a total afterthought coming into the year, that's a big win. Festa didn't exactly push his way onto the roster from AAA this year (4.03 ERA / 3.95 FIP vs minor leaguers). Not sure what makes you think he's got playoff caliber starter potential at MLB? He's certainly looking a heck of a lot better now that he's not terrified of issuing a walk.
  15. bean5302
    Varland almost certainly needs to move to the 'pen to help the Twins. I don't think there's a good chance he can be an effective MLB starter. While his sparkly ERA is 1.48, he's been up and down in terms of expected results. His FIP over that period is 4.08. Still serviceable, but Varland's consistently given up very hard contact as a starter at the MLB level.
  16. bean5302
    Yeah, but both doubles were on competitive pitch locations, in fact, the one to Vaughn was in a spot Vaughn has struggled with good sequencing. Dobnak left the game with 2Ks and a 1.67 FIP. The walk was bad, he was all over the place, but certainly no worse than we've seen from quite a few guys this year on a single batter. There haven't been enough pitches to grade his stuff much, but in the tiny sample size, Dobnak's change up has been absolutely filthy in terms of Stuff+. His sinker has been terrible (out of whack from history) and his slider's been serviceable. I'd want to see more before I declare him unchanged hot garbage.
  17. bean5302
    You have an interesting perception of me. I spent a lot of money on Twins tickets this year after renewing and upgrading my seasons last year. The commitment ownership put forth was not on par with my investment or what I expected. Do you get frustrated when you get ripped off?
  18. bean5302
    His defensive metrics are partially down due to his peers just being better fielders. Buxton's feet covered is up 1.7ft in his "jump" to 35.8 ft, which is the highest of his career, but his peers are at their best as well. In any case, Buxton's slowing down a bit, his arm isn't grading out quite as well, etc. Basically, the guy has entered his 30s so don't expect him to be able to avoid decline at this point. It's nice to see Buxton staying as healthy as he has been. Highly unexpected, even eyebrow raising to me, but he's on pace for 125 games this year. I'd say he has an outside chance to get to that 504 PA total which would qualify him. Wouldn't that be something? As I expected, his bat caught up to the fastballs he was behind earlier this year, and he's been feasting on them as the scouting reports always lag actual production. Buxton's always been good against the 4 seamer, and now that he's on top of them again, he'll probably see fewer going forward. Still, his OPS+ 135 is only a fraction higher than underlying metrics suggest. Buxton could be looking at a near 5 WAR campaign this year. Far from an MVP candidate, but right on par with his real ceiling.
  19. bean5302
    Margot and Vazquez are sunk costs without options. Brooks Lee is getting absolutely owned by any/all types of fastballs. Cutters, 4 seamers, sinkers. They're just eating him up right now. I don't think Lee has a terribly long leash at this point. Once Correa is back, probably in a couple weeks, I'd be surprised if Lee remains up unless he turns things around.
  20. bean5302
    Box score says 2 errors there including a play at 1B, but I didn't watch the game so if there was a 3rd, I missed it.
  21. bean5302
    I don't know where you got that? Teams deal with injuries to their most important players all the time. The Braves, Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Yankees have all lost ace's for a ton of time this year.
  22. bean5302
    Eh, people are sure being hard on Dobnak here. I don't think there's a lot you can take away from 10 batters faced. Need a little more data on it.
  23. bean5302
    Ahhhh, Varland. He had a great start for sure, but the 5.33 FIP last month isn't inspiring to me in the least. The sooner he moves to the bullpen, the better. He's not needed in the rotation with Dobnak and Plutko as back end rotation options, and guys like Andrew Morris ready to move up.
  24. bean5302
    Honestly, Soto gets it here for me. All three games were good starts, all 3 had great FIPs, great K rates, reasonable to great BB rates. No clunkers. That's important to me. Morris definitely deserves some praise, but the 5 hit, 5 (unearned) run 1.0 inning start on 7/14 wasn't pretty. That said, he only had an FIP of 3.46 there. Just brutal with a .500 BABIP. Still, 3 outs from 10 batters? Sorry. That doesn't work even if you mix 2 errors in there. Went Ground out, Ground out/Error, Liner base hit. Ground ball base hit. Line drive base hit. Ground ball out/Error. Ground ball base hit. Line drive base hit. Fly out. Connor Prielipp gets on this list for me as well despite the super short rehab starts. Varland does not. He ran an FIP over 5.00 in July. Sorry, but luck doesn't get you rewards IMHO. None of these pitchers had a great month, to be honest. Morris and Bengard had clunkers of games, MacCloud ran some pretty pedestrian FIPs, Varland had a clunker and a bad FIP for the month. Clunkers (RA > 6.00) Soto - 0 clunkers, FIP 2.28 for the month Morris - 1 clunker (1.0 IP, 5 runs allowed), FIP 1.84 for the month Plutko - 0 clunkers, FIP 2.85 for the month MacCloud - 0 clunkers, FIP 4.93 for the month Dobnak - 0 clunkers, FIP 4.09 for the month Bengard - 1 clunker (2.2 IP, 2 ER), FIP 4.45 for the month Varland - 1 clunker (2.2 IP, 2 ER), FIP 5.33 for the month
  25. bean5302
    There are very few pitchers out there who can sustain ERAs/FIPs far below xFIPs. Across MLB over the past 4 seasons with 83 pitchers having 400 innings pitched there are ZERO with a more favorable split of xFIP to FIP than Woods Richardson this year. 1. SWR +0.58 (2024) 2. Kirby +0.43 3. Javier +0.37 4. Cortes +0.35 5. Cease +0.31 6. Sandoval +0.30 7. Manoah +0.30 8. Irvin +0.27 SWR cannot sustain his spread between FIP and xFIP. He can either generate fewer fly balls or he's going to give up more home runs. Things will balance themselves out substantially. Just a matter of time.
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