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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Yeah. I do not see Paddack making another start for the Twins this year. The fact he's not even getting considered for a full effort ramp up, let alone a rehab assignment until the results of an MRI scheduled 2 weeks out is reviewed tells me he's a mid September return at the earliest. He hasn't even begun a throwing program, apparently? So say things come back all nice and pretty and the Twins clear Paddack for a throwing program, he might get a couple bullpen sessions done by early September. If everything looks good, he'd get cleared for a rehab assignment where he's almost certainly be a bullpen arm. Having not pitched for 2 months at that point, he'd need at least 2-3 bullpen appearances before the Twins would call him back up which could maybe happen maybe a few days before a 60 day IL timeframe. No way he gets stretched out in time for more than a single regular season start.
  2. bean5302
    That'd be pretty unheard of for an amount like $7.5MM, but even if the Twins did have a policy for Paddack, they'd be insured for maybe 50-80% of his salary. Plus, the premiums of Paddack would be huge because of his injury history. In fact, based on his small salary and injury history, he's probably uninsurable.
  3. bean5302
    Vazquez's $10MM salary was a major constraint on the ability to sign desired free agents or upgrade positions on the 26 man roster based on the budget set by ownership. Does that adjustment quell your need for your semantics argument?
  4. bean5302
    Kirilloff, if totally shielded from LHP, could be a "little above average bat" playing DH. He's Arb 2. 100% non-tender. Kirilloff did not hide his injury. He was actively being treated for his injury. I could see the Twins bringing him back on a MiLB contract, though as I don't expect any team in MLB will be willing to give him an MLB contract. What Kirilloff did was put the team in a bit of a bind by responding to his demotion to AAA by stating his pain level had gotten worse to the point he wasn't able to play normally. This forced the Twins to reverse their option transaction, move him to the 15 day IL and re-shuffle the roster. I don't know him personally. Might be a really great guy, but his on the field performance has never warranted a roster spot. Even his breakout 2023 campaign, which was floated by a .337 BABIP (.374 BABIP vs RHP) still had Kirilloff projecting at an uninspiring 1.0 WAR full season (150 games) level.
  5. bean5302
    In a word? No. He's getting paid $10MM to be a AAA talent. Apart from the dubious "catcher framing" statistic, his defense is only average, and his salary was a major constraint to the Twins this past offseason. For the people who love a plucky underdog like Vazquez, though, there will always be a way to justify their cost and roster spot. Some intangible, immeasurable value or a value which has been researched, yet concluded to be of no consequence (game calling).
  6. bean5302
    There is no indication the Pohlad's are going to expand the payroll. Aside from that, you sure are bullish on a pitcher with a 4.90 ERA over his past 5 years.
  7. bean5302
    First off... I'm really not sure what you're disagreeing with or taking issue with here? Yep. 2025 is definitely in the future. Are you disagreeing that it'd be good for the Twins to have Chris Paddack having a higher value? Second, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-arbitration-compensation-update/ Project player WAR, multiply it by the arbitration multiplier in the chart, probably add a little because it's a historical table. If anything, I'd say I'm a tick conservative. ex. Bailey Ober = 2.5 current, 3.0 WAR x 1.38 + 0.76 = $4.9MM vs. My estimate $4.5MM ex. Griffin Jax = 1.8 current, 2.3 WAR x 1.79 + 0.76 = $4.8MM vs. My estimate $3.0MM Third. It's widely expected the Twins are going to further cut payroll in 2025. The Pohlad's were incredibly tight fisted this deadline. Attendance is down. They struggled to find TV partners this past offseason. I just don't see any way they expand payroll apart from them making the World Series. Certainly if the Twins make or win the World Series, there will be more money available. I'm all for it. I'm just not counting on it.
  8. bean5302
    Wouldn't it be great if the Twins uniforms were made with the same color for the pants and jerseys?
  9. bean5302
    What Berrios has done is totally irrelevant. If you sell a $100k Ferrari for $50k in Bitcoin and the buyer goes out and wrecks it so it's now worth $0, that doesn't mean the seller did well.
  10. bean5302
    Total innings can be a poor metric when attempting to gauge pitcher usage on a usual game basis. It seems simple enough, but it doesn't work when determining how many 6.0 inning starts a single starter has since a handful of bad starts can muck up the "average" vs. consistent usage quite a bit. Woods Richardson averages 5.1 innings per start. He has 33% of his starts reach 6.0 innings. Frankie Montas averages 5.0 innings per start. He has 36% of his starts reach 6.0 innings. Nick Pivetta averages 5.1 innings per start. He has 42% of his starts reach 6.0 innings. Garret Crochet averages 5.0 innings per start. He has 44% of his starts reach 6.0 innings. When it comes to last year with a dominant rotation which was also exceedingly healthy, you'd certainly expect lots of innings... Putting innings aside and looking at pitch count for starts for the 127 pitchers with 70+ innings this year, not one Twins pitcher ranks in the top 37, where you'd expect 25 pitchers per rotation spot. #38 Joe Ryan = 92 #46 Pablo Lopez = 91 Median Average = 89 #69 Bailey Ober = 88 #92 Chris Paddack = 86 #107 SWR = 85 The Twins are below average in pitch count per start. I don't feel like wasting hrs of my time looking at game logs, but I'd be willing to bet money apart from Joe Ryan, Twins pitchers are below average in terms of percentage of of 6.0+ inning starts.
  11. bean5302
    The Twins would certainly benefit from Paddack's return to pitching. Even if it was out of the bullpen. Minnesota needs to get out from under his $7.5MM contract if they can. The Twins have a ton of money locked up in Correa NTC, Lopez, Buxton NTC, Vazquez and Paddack compared to their expected max payroll around $125MM. $36MM + $21.5MM + $15MM + $10MM + $7.5MM = $90MM. Dobnak is $3MM, Alcala is $1.5MM. Then buyouts for Farmer and Jackson at $0.5MM. That puts the Twins at $95MM. Roughly $30MM to spend on 19 players, including guys in line for big raises. $4.5MM Joe Ryan Arb 1 $4.5MM Bailey Ober Arb 1 $3MM Griffin Jax Arb 1 $2MM Jhoan Duran Arb 1 $1MM Brock Stewart Arb 1 $8MM Willi Castro Arb 3 $5MM Royce Lewis Arb 1 $3MM Ryan Jeffers Arb 1 $2MM Trevor Larnach Arb 1 $1.5MM Alex Kirilloff Arb 2 If the Twins don't shed any of these guys, that puts us at about $130MM, plus another $8MM to round out the 26 man roster near league minimum so $138MM. This is the true payroll situation the Twins find themselves in. Probably needing to find about $10-15MM of payroll shedding someplace assuming no signings.
  12. bean5302
    Vazquez isn't hitting particularly well, he's regressing to expected values. Before 6/1 = .165/.184/.202. 1.7% BB, 25.0% K. BABIP .210. Exit Velo 90.1mph. 3.6% Brl, 35.7% Hard From 6/1 = .288/.325/.523. 5.7% BB, 14.8% K. BABIP .292. Exit Velo 86.8mph. 6.2% Brl, 34.0% Hard His average exit velocity has dropped down to the basement of MLB hitters since 6/1 and his hard hit rate has even declined. On the plus side, he's barreled a few more balls up despite still being a pretty poor value, and he's converted some K's to BBs and contact. His rolling xwOBA has remained under MLB average the entire season, including even now so there shouldn't be any expectation Vazquez has become a good hitter, just that he's getting some good luck to offset his bad luck to start the year.
  13. bean5302
    It's being considered, but I'd be surprised if it was actually pushed through. Regardless of whether or not there is any science of any type behind it, pitch counts exceeding 100 by much are uncommon, and with today's focus on strikeouts, pitchers can hit that limit before 6 innings. Fatigue leads to sloppy mechanics which leads to major injury. There would probably have to be a stipulation for pitch count or something and that would defeat the whole purpose of the considered rule. It's worth noting most pitchers already pitch 6+ innings per start with regularity. Flaherty has the lowest number of innings of any qualified starters. He's gone 6.0+ innings in 13 of 21 starts. I looked at the league a couple years ago. The average starting pitcher goes 6 innings like 70% of the time. Baldelli has typically brandished a quick hook so some proposed rule change to lengthen starts might impact his spreadsheet in the future, but a 6 inning rule seems awfully unlikely to happen to me.
  14. bean5302
    More than top notch prospects, Berrios was moved for what were supposed to be near MLB ready prospects, not guys who needed 3 years more in the minors. The trade has not worked out as intended, but thankfully, Woods Richardson looks like he'll be able to stick in MLB at this point. It's a big deal SWR has turned a corner. Morris, Festa, Matthews = Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, Sands, Duran, etc. I remain hopeful our prospects can work out, but for every pitching prospect the Twins have developed, there have been 3-4 sure fire rotation pieces who haven't been able to make it as starters.
  15. bean5302
    Prospects are about trying to figure out what a player can bring to the table. Varland and Woods Richardson have both eclipsed rookie status. I don't consider either one a prospect at this point. You could just as well toss Bailey Ober in here (even though he's older than Pablo Lopez). Festa's been getting results, but I'm not on board the bandwagon. Festa has a 4.00 ERA/FIP in AAA and a 5.00 ERA/FIP at the MLB level. That HR rate, the lack of control, and the quality of his stuff concerns me. Matthews looked pretty good in his first MLB start. His Stuff+ results are impressive, though the sample size is way too small yet. He'll need a couple more starts before things start to stabilize at all. All 5 of his pitches look to be solid MLB quality. Fastball = 50 grade (95) Changeup = 50 grade (94) Cutter = 55 grade (112) Slider = 55 grade (117) Curve = 55 grade (112) This is my view of how things appear to work out based on the numbers and other pitchers. 60 = 30 Unfit for MLB 70 = 35 80 = 40 Below Average 90 = 45 100 = 50 MLB Average 110 = 55 120 = 60 Plus 130 = 65 140 = Plus Plus 70 150 = 75 160 = 80 Elite
  16. bean5302
    I used a standard deviation formula in Excel to create the brackets. I found a post I had on Keirsey earlier this year where I performed the same exercise based on a 2023 sample, less the standard deviation. RF/9 is hardly perfect, but a couple years in a row where Keirsey puts up numbers which are pretty middle of the pack is at least approaching a significant sample. He's not going to be a plus fielder at the MLB level.
  17. bean5302
    I can't see a way the Twins can pony up for Castro at $7MM+ in Arb 3 with free agency looming for him, and Brooks Lee is one of the slowest runners in all of MLB (25.8 ft/sec) so he can't really replace Margot directly because there's no chance he could cover an outfield position. Lee is significantly slower than Trevor Larnach (26.2 ft/sec), and he's even sitting at a sprint speed slower than Carlos Santana (26.0 ft/sec). I suppose you could move Lee to 3rd base, but Brooks Lee's bat hasn't been MLB worthy, either as Austin Martin has the same OPS as Brooks Lee at a OPS .642. Martin is the better offensive player since he's an asset on the basepaths.
  18. bean5302
    I can't imagine a scenario where it would be a good idea to sign Desclafani on anything other than a MiLB contract. A MiLB contract without an opt out? Sure. If the Twins have liked working with him, that's not an issue. So long as he's not taking up a spot on the 40 man.
  19. bean5302
    DaShawn Keirsey's batting line has been slipping since May when he went on the IL for a bit. 6/22+ = .253/.316/.376 OPS .692 wRC+ 79. With Buxton out, the Twins are in a pretty rough spot for CF coverage, but Keirsey is getting passed over yet again. It's for a reason. He's gotten a lot of accolades about his fielding, but I haven't found his fielding numbers in the minors to be impressive in the least. As I recall, his RF/9 (not great as a stat, but it's what I have to work with) looked well below average last year, but this year he's in the average grouping. That said, it's pretty shocking the lack of prospect depth at CF across the league. I mean... look at those journeyman ages! I include Austin Martin's career all level MiLB CF numbers since he just doesn't have enough sample size at AAA this year to compare. I continue to suspect Keirsey will perform similarly to Austin Martin in CF. This year RF/9, Primary CF's in the International League (AAA) Elite TOR = a26 Eden 2.88 TBR = a26 Misner 2.88 Plus STL = a23 Scott II 2.72 DET = a24 Meadows 2.70 WAS = a29 Call 2.66 MIA = a22 Mesa 2.65 Average Austin Martin all levels 2.61 MIN = a27 Keirsey 2.59 CHC = a22 Crow-Armstong 2.54 NYY = a27 Lockridge 2.53 PHI = a27 Stevenson 2.52 ATL = a28 Martinez 2.47 Below average MIL = a27 Roller 2.41 NYM = a33 Thompson 2.40 CHW = a33 Ortega 2.37 KCR = a25 Waters 2.33 BOS = a29 Contreras 2.32 (yes, that Contreras) CIN = a25 Dunn 2.31 CLE = a29 Straw 2.28 Unplayables PIT = a25 Celestino 2.11 (yes, that Celestino) BAL = a29 Johnson 2.10
  20. bean5302
    Bottom of photo: Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of C.J. Culpepper)
  21. bean5302
    Still a negative WAR player who can't be used to cover the one position he was needed to cover. I struggle to see any real value Margot is providing to this team. He had that little blip of performance, but it was nothing more than that.
  22. bean5302
    I worked in executive compensation, business planning and investments for over 20 years. You don't appear to have even a rudimentary grasp on how businesses are run or why they're run that way. The Pohlads have run the Twins like most owners have run their teams. It's not a matter of net value. In a very crude example, buy a house, but make no house payments for a year. Invest those payments into a kitchen remodel and a new roof. Then try to refinance and tell your mortgage company it's okay because the house went up in value. I'm not going further on this, but I strongly suggest everybody who thinks cash flow or net operating income is not relevant to large businesses take a few weeks to really learn about finances. If you don't understand the basics of your life insurance policy or your retirement account or you don't think you could do your own taxes, take some time and learn all that stuff. Even if you don't think it helps you now or for 10 or 20 years, it likely will save you some enormous stress and sleepless nights down the road.
  23. bean5302
    I'm not sure what you mean? I think almost everybody recognizes Buxton will never have a full season or a particularly healthy one, right? He's got chronic back issues, chronic hip issues, migraines, and after his last couple surgeries, he's expected to have chronic knee inflammation. Those issues are never going away. They're chronic health problems for him while his job is to be a professional athlete. He's also dealt with some wrist issues, and he's like any other player when it comes to other potential acute injuries. If your expectation is higher than 80 games a year for Buxton, well, I think you're going to be disappointed most years. If your expectation is 100+ games a year, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment because that's unreasonable. He's played 90 games this year already, and he'll probably hit 100 games this year while accruing the most plate appearances he's made since 2017, and he's also been productive. That's a huge win for him and the Twins based on reasonable expectations. Buxton is what he is. Accepting what he is and resetting your expectations would probably help eliminate some of the annoyance you feel, I think. It feels like you're still in the belief Buxton could play a 150 game season or put together a run on an MVP or something? That's just not going to happen. He's a valuable player who you can count on for a 3-4 WAR partial season. I'm thankful last year's production wasn't decline and he's still able to help the Twins while he's on the field this year. His contract is a major burden on the payroll limits the Pohlads seem to have set, and the Twins have exactly zero quality replacements for him on the roster. The Twins need Buxton to perform at his best for those 80 games a year.
  24. bean5302
    Pitch framing has not appeared to be repeatable from year to year for most catchers. I don't like it much as a stat since it's not consistent. I suspect it has a lot to do with the pitchers themselves, combined with catcher height.
  25. bean5302
    First off all, putting player on waivers means irrevocable only at this point. There are only two waivers options left. 1) Outright waivers. - Any team can claim the contract, if the player passes through waivers, they can be outrighted off the 40 man. Any player with 5 years of service time can reject the outright. Any player with 3+ years of service time or having been previously outrighted can opt for free agency instead of accepting the outright. 2) Unconditional release waivers. Used when the player is going to reject the outright. At the end of the waiver, the player is released and the waiving team would then be responsible for all remaining money for the existing contract. There are no trades. Period. Thus NTC's do not apply. Any players on the new team's roster prior to 9/1 are eligible for the playoffs.
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