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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Exciting to see the call up for Culpepper. He was definitely rusty in his first few games back with the Saints, but he's had some good games lately. Looks like the Twins front office is convinced the rust has worked its way out and he's ready enough for MLB action. Culpepper's overall performance is good rather than great, but it's just so hard to gauge AAA right now. The pitching is so lousy in the International League it robs players of their ability to showcase their talent. Any AA caliber hitter can also hit at AAA. Here's hoping Culpepper's skills translate as directly as possible to MLB.
  2. bean5302
    Sabato is likely to be a defensively and positionally challenged DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. / Kyler Fedko. He might perform as a platoon DH, but that means pinch hitting and starting once per week. So maybe, what, 150 PA a year? How much value does that really add?
  3. bean5302
    With a new CBA coming, I don't think there's any way Arbitration goes down. I think there's a good chance arbitration extends the market value adjustment so there aren't gigantic jumps like Skubal had. 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% or something like that. Also, given Royce Lewis' history. Does he want to keep getting pushed around the field? Does he think the Twins have wronged him? I'd be shocked if he viewed himself as a utility guy or a 1B. It wouldn't surprise me if he pushed for a trade.
  4. bean5302
    Toronto. They're the only ones who've really benefitted in any meaningful way. They made the World Series.
  5. bean5302
    Pretty sure this has been pointed out at least 100x, but he's had YEARS in the GM role. Even if Falvey had a strategy that overreached into Zoll's role on paper, if Zoll couldn't develop a philosophy during his 6 years or whatever with the Twins and his 1.5yrs as a GM after taking over from Levine, he's totally incompetent.
  6. bean5302
    Who knows with this front office? Maybe Bailey "positional flexibility!" Ober? Lee, Keaschall, Lewis, Clemens. I'm not sure. Who "should" play is open to debate as well. I don't know how strong Kaelen Culpepper's arm is, really. It's graded as a 60, but that's subjective. He's going to be rangy-er than Lee, and he probably has a stronger arm too. It's possible Culpepper should be at 2B and Lewis should be at 3B. No idea.
  7. bean5302
    The Astros weren't sellers and seeing two buyers come together in a swap of MLB players is relatively uncommon. A buyer trading MLB players to a seller doesn't make sense so Larnach's market was going to be limited to prospects. Essentially, Larnach to the Astros for an Astros prospect, then the Astros prospect to another buyer for a relief pitcher. That or a 3 team trade. It feels like Zoll is just incompetent to me.
  8. bean5302
    Larnach is good so a team might trade for him and the rest are DFA candidates?
  9. bean5302
    Tell that to MiLB/MLB
  10. bean5302
    Evaluating Kremer puts him solidly as a #5 ceiling, but a reliable #5. ERA doesn't matter much, but the advanced metrics don't paint a pretty picture. xFIP and SIERA like him, but I don't find them particularly compelling. xFIP doesn't know if a fly ball is a pop up, a warning track shot or an upper deck home run. Kremer doesn't generate a lot of pop ups. He's below league average, and that suggests his HR:FB rate will be probably worse than average. SIERA does account for pop ups vs. regular fly balls, but it ignores line drives entirely and Kremer is giving up a lot of line drives this year. I guess, maybe, that'll trend back which will help his results? I think he's just an adequate back of the rotation guy.
  11. bean5302
    I don't think you can assume anything other than 2027 is played completely and the CBA has no changes. Owners might have a little more insight into things, but as regular folks on the street, not a clue. In reality, I think the owners will break the union on the salary cap. The salary cap will also come with a salary floor and a 100% rev share because it has to. If that happens, the Twins can expect they'll need to expand payroll to $175MM+ next year and teams like the Dodgers will be forced to trade assets off. But will what I think will happen actually happen? No real idea.
  12. bean5302
    Hill was the only prospect the Twins gave up who looks like they might make an impact at the MLB level, though he's still high risk. Mintner = A. The Twins' bullpen needed serious, reliable help. Not flakey guys who are often unplayable for long stretches. Mintner fits the bill and helps really solidify the lefty options. Hoffman = A. Hoffman has the credentials to lock down the back end of the bullpen. Apart from the every reliever experiences weird luck, his peripherals are great and unlike a guy like Pagan who was all peripherals, Hoffman has the background of real success. Kremer = D. The Twins needed a bona fide playoff caliber starter to supplement Ryan and Bradley. They didn't get one. Kremer does help solidify the rotation to get to the playoffs, but he doesn't help if we do make it. I think it's going to have to be Prielipp, and that's a lot of growth we need to see to trust in a guy being handled (overmanaged IMO) with kid extra padded mittens from a work load perspective. Overall D - The real issues are Kremer vs. Gausman and maybe a RH bat. Swap those 2 things out, and the Twins are far more competitive in the playoffs on paper. Just have to see, but given how far up the ladder the Twins need to climb to make it in, then advance, this feels like an effort, but an effort which didn't really change much.
  13. bean5302
    40/60 Hill makes it to MLB right now with a fair chance he never makes it past AA IMHO. The Twins traded the ceiling and the floor. Unfortunately, I can't disagree with the sentiment the Twins needed to do more to be true buyers and improve their odds at the division win (probably required to make playoffs) and their odds at advancing deep.
  14. bean5302
    I think that's one reason Falvey was canned, but one reason Zoll should also be canned at the end of the year if the Twins don't go deep into the playoffs.
  15. bean5302
    Emma has to spend 90 days on the active roster to eliminate the 4th option year. 3/9-5/5 = 57 days 7/28-8/30 = 33 days = 90 total He's not getting a 4th option unless he goes back on the 60 day IL soon.
  16. bean5302
    High end reliever for 2 PTBNL is "relatively manageable" and gets a B High end reliever for a top 10 prospect and a couple more PTBNL types gets a B+ because it came with a little cash the Twins didn't need.
  17. bean5302
    I dislike this article quite a bit. Culpepper is showing a blip of knocking the rust off, but 1 good game isn't enough to convince me he's ready for a massive competition leap. Jenkins has been league average for over a month in AAA. Tons of pop ups, tons of grounders, low line drive rate, no power, average on the base paths and no real spot for him in the lineup. Jackson is an interesting case. His actual production has been good, but expected is terrible. He hits right handed and has 1300 career MiLB innings in the outfield. At $1MM and good defensively, does he pass through waivers? I'd say probably not, but if the Twins have seen enough, then I don't think it's the end of the world to watch him walk.
  18. bean5302
    Saints nice and consistent in a way I like to see, haha.
  19. bean5302
    wait... what? Since June 1st. I trust I don't have to add the names, lol .292/.393/.661 OPS 1.054, .368 ISO, 10.9% BB, 26.4% K. wRC+ 159 vs .281/.339/.544 OPS .883, .263 ISO, 7.3% BB, 22.0% K, wRC+ 118 That is not remotely close to similar.
  20. bean5302
    I have it on good authority this is Joe Mauer's fault.
  21. bean5302
    I'm not sure Houston has the personality to be the face of the franchise to the fans, though he's got the stuff to be the face of the franchise in terms of value and recognizable name. Houston has definite All Star and potential fringe MVP potential upside if he can keep hitting. Joe Mauer was the face of the franchise, but Michael Cuddyer and Brian Dozier were the fan face of the franchise, IMHO.
  22. bean5302
    Miller is in the middle of major approach changes. He's trying to generate more game power (same thing Houston is doing currently) while simultaneously increasing contact outside the zone, but Miller's having a much harder time with the consistency. Miller needs to be more aggressive at the plate with balls in the zone, and I think he might make it. Houston is having tremendous success with his adaptations, and he's clearly got a better eye than Miller. Beyond both of them being defensive wizards at SS, there's not a lot to compare or contrast. I still root for Miller, but his ceiling looks far lower than Houston's.
  23. bean5302
    Ever seen Juan Soto take an at bat? I can't tell if this article is just unbelievably petty or oblivious?
  24. bean5302
    I don't think it has. His expected cost has dropped as much as his value from his performance.
  25. bean5302
    This is every 2nd half he's ever pitched in. Ryan's been part of every 2nd half collapse.
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