bean5302

The changes Falvey made to the analytics and scouting departments were absolutely necessary to be competitive. No doubt about that. He just hasn't made particularly good use of the tools. I actually meant to post the fWAR in a different topic, but was super busy, LOL. Oh well.

Alex Kirilloff is a non-tender for sure. If the Twins want him back, they can just be the first to offer him a MiLB contract because he's not going to get an MLB offer.

No, it's really not. I just did the quick math on this for some other Pablo Lopez lover the other day. The Twins pitched 1440 innings last year. Their team's defensive values are as follows: OAA = 0 runs ERA = FIP DRS = -19 runs ERA =+0.12 vs. FIP UZR = -30 runs ERA = +0.18 vs. FIP Defense matters, but for guys like Lopez, not nearly enough to account for his ERA being much higher than FIP. FIP says every single pitcher is identical. There are no ground ball or fly ball pitchers. Every pitcher has the same pitch type, amount of hard contact, and the same launch angles. No pitcher is different out of the stretch than the windup. No pitchers hold runners better than another. It's purely hypothetical and terribly out of date. It's barely better than just using ERA as a predictive stat.

I really don't understand why people think Falvey has done something great in terms of draft/development for the Twins. The best position player he's ever signed out of the draft barely played for the team before being tossed in as a candy bar in the Taylor Rogers trade. Falvey's drafts highest fWAR (everybody at 1.0 or higher fWAR) 2017 Ober 7.7 fWAR 1.5 per expected season 2017 Rooker 6.7 fWAR 1.3 per expected season 2018 Jeffers 6.4 fWAR 1.5 per expected season 2017 Lewis 4.0 fWAR 1.0 per expected season 2019 Wallner 3.8 fWAR 1.9 per expected season 2019 Steer 3.1 fWAR 1.0 per expected season 2019 Julien 2.8 fWAR 0.9 per expected season 2018 Larnach 2.6 fWAR 0.7 per expected season 2018 Sands 1.3 fWAR 0.3 per expected season 2021 Festa 1.1 fWAR 1.1 per expected season 2017 Faucher 1.1 fWAR (traded to Tampa with Cruz for Ryan) 0.2 per expected season Not a great record across 8 years of drafting considering good prospects generally make the majors in 3 years out of college and 4 years out of high school. That means we would expect good prospects from 2017 to have 4-5 years of MLB experience. A solid starter would have accumulated 8-10 WAR already. Not one single drafted and signed player from Falvey's regime is averaging 2.0 fWAR per season based on 3yrs of development for college and 4yrs of development for high school players. Only Rooker has earned an All Star nod, and it wasn't with the Twins. Complain about injuries all you like. In the world of "business," if the Pohlads are actually running one, results are supposed to be what matters.

Compared to Falvey and the Pohlads is what I think is relevant. What I feel is being discussed is how Levine fit into the management style of the Twins, and I think it's safe to say it feels like Levine was more aggressive and bullish on risk. Since the Pohlad family focused on cutting the front office last year to save money, it seems reasonable to conclude they were going to cut the front office to save more money this year. Not sure if Levine had the option of returning or if he made the decision based on differences of opinion on the direction of the club after the new conservative payroll approach directed by the Pohlad's.

Yeah, I do not see Paddack in the bullpen as an option for Minnesota. Even Jax and Duran will combine for around $6-7MM on their own, and they're pushing the limits of what Falvey will accept. Anything over $5.0MM in the bullpen for the Twins gets into the "nope" category. Remember when they pushed Taylor Rogers off the books because he hit $6MM? Here are the top bullpen salaries by year under Falvey. 2017 - Glen Perkins $6.5MM 2018 - Addison Reed $8.3MM 2019 - Sam Dyson $5MM 2020 - Sergio Romo $4.8MM 2021 - Alex Colome $5.0MM 2022 - Micheal Fulmer $5.0MM 2023 - Emilio Pagan $3.5MM

Right now the Twins 2025 rotation is: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Woods-Richardson Depth Festa, Matthews, Morris I expect it will change before opening day via injuries or roster changes. Festa's fastball/slider combo gives him a nice high floor of at least high end reliever, but the lack of a true plus pitch and a 3 pitch combo (assuming the changeup can even play long term) limits his ceiling a lot. He's probably going to be capped at #4 level. Matthews has a lot of pitches, but they're all pretty league average. Without any plus movement stuff, he's going to need to really excel at pitch placement, which he was average at this season as well. His floor is probably lower than Festa's right now down to middle relief at worst, and it's tough to see Matthews getting out of the back of the rotation without significant further development.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/zebby-matthews-805673?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb The top right movement profile chart shows that not to be the case. The slider and cutter break similar.

Brooks Lee looks like a utility infielder to me, if his bat improves that is. He doesn't currently have the speed necessary to be hold his own in the outfield. Unfortunately, his biggest weakness at the MLB level this year was catching up to fastballs, and that's the pitch MLB caliber hitters really need to be able to hit. I don't think there's honestly a huge difference between the fastballs at AAA and the fastballs at the MLB level. It's the breaking pitches which seem to be the death knell for prospects so there's still some hope Lee can adjust, but Lee's performance in 2023 at the AAA level is not encouraging, either. The short time at AAA in 2024 showed huge ISO numbers for Lee in a SSS so it's tough to say how reliable the data is on him at all. Consider Buxton was pretty awful against fastballs this past year for the first 200 plate appearances (-4.2) before utterly obliterating them the rest of the year finishing at +11, and Lee's total ineptness (-5.7) for 185 PA doesn't look insurmountable. All I know is he was utterly overpowered at the plate against MLB pitching. He chased too much, he couldn't catch up to fastballs and he failed to drive balls at a passable level. He's certainly not going to win any gold gloves with his physical ability limitations so he's going to need to put some stuff together. "He's just a rookie" yep. He is, and there's plenty of reasons to be excited about his potential given how smooth he can look out there, and the fact he's already playing at the MLB level. Jackson Holliday is from the same draft class and produced very similar overall results at the plate with a wRC+ 63 campaign in a very similar sample size of around 200 PA. Only 4 position players from the 21 selections in the first round of 2022's draft class have made MLB, and most of the others haven't been lighting the world on fire in the minors, either. It's honestly just looking like a really weak class to me. 1. a20 SS Jackson Holliday wRC+ 63 - MLB 2. a20 OF Druw Jones wRC+ 125 - A Ball 4. a20 SS Termarr Johnson wRC+ 98 - AA 5. a20 OF Elijah Green wRC+ 94 - A Ball 6. a23 3B Jacob Berry wRC+ 75 - AAA 8. a23 SS Brooks Lee wRC+ 62 - MLB 9. a23 OF Gavin Cross wRC+ 115 - AA 11. a23 C Kevin Parada wRC+ 93 - AA 12. a23 3B Jace Jung wRC+ 102 - MLB 13. a23 SS Zach Neto wRC+ 114 - MLB 14. a20 SS Jett Williams wRC+ 192 - AAA in 30 PA (wRC+ 62 in 101 PA at AA) 16. a22 OF Chase DeLauter wRC+ 185 - AAA in 27 PA (wRC+ 118 in 128 PA at AA) 17. a20 OF Justin Crawford wRC+ 140 - AA 18. a19 3B Cam Collier wRC+ 129 - A+ 19. a23 C Daniel Susac wRC+ 103 - AA 21. a20 SS Cole Young wRC+ 119 - AA 24. a20 SS Mickey Romero wRC+ 118 - AA 25. a23 OF Spencer Jones wRC+ 124 - AA 27. a23 SS Eric Brown Jr. wRC+ 62 - AA 28. a23 OF Drew Gilbert wRC+ 85 - AAA 29. a20 1B Xavier Isaac wRC+ 113 - AA MLB = 19% AAA = 19% AA = 48% A+ = 5% A = 9% Just have to wait and see if Lee can adapt to MLB fastballs, and I suspect we'll know that by mid next year. Lee will almost certainly be on the opening day roster given the Twins' payroll crunch.

Miranda is fine. He's a wRC+ 115ish hitter who is either going to be a DH or 1B. That's good enough for a 2+ WAR regular player at league minimum. He's a little like Luis Arraez with a lesser hit tool and a little more power. Miranda is also not a good splits/platoon guy. He hits righties and lefties well so he's got that advantage on the roster size as well.

The best reason is to get a better chance at a higher draft pick... Baldelli has lost the team, few people like his in game decisions or the theories he steadfastly ties himself down with.

Well, first off, as far as public knowledge goes, Falvey and Levine's contracts were up this past season. The fact Falvey is returning means the Twins have extended him either at the end of this year (I have my doubts on that) or secretly after the playoff victory last year as a recent Twins Daily article suggested a few weeks ago. Levine has interviewed for a couple other GM jobs and he didn't make it past the first round for the Red Sox most recently. Combined with how hidden away he is with Minnesota and the lack of knowledge regarding his actual contributions, it's not a good career move to stick around the Twins any longer at this point. Perhaps Levine was sticking around to see if he could supplant Falvey? In any case, best of luck to him, whatever opportunities he pursues.

It's hard to find much older stuff on the web now with search engines being designed more for making money than finding relevant information. I think it stems back to Levine's conversations about spending strategy. The "boot to the throat" quote which never came to fruition. Levine always felt like his personal preference was to be more aggressive to me, while Falvey is clearly a Cleveland product, and dirt cheap aligns better with ownership as well.

If people can't take a joke, don't read humorous articles. Joe Mauer is certainly not going to be offended by a ridiculous tongue in cheek piece like this. This was written to be a funny piece and lighten the air, but the PC police on overdrive have really worked hard to ruin the mood.

None of these guys project as somebody worthy of regular playing time in the models right now.

No way, just look at all the greatness Driveline did for Christian Vazquez! He's just waiting for that Silver Slugger award.

This one was awesome! hahaha

Streaming the games is the future. MLB should own it's content and the cable networks can pay for it if they want. That's the only model which protects MLB and its teams from the utter disaster of the past couple years, and the long time problems they've had. Now is the time to make changes and protect the sport's assets with the RSN's largely out of the situation. Even if there is a 10-20% reduction in revenues, it won't make a huge impact on teams payroll.

The more I think about it, the more I agree, Thad Levine is probably going to get the ax. So far as I can tell, Levine's job is to get coffee for Falvey and wash Falvey's car. That's the kind of person the Twins are letting go to correct this abomination of a season. Get that laundry guy the hell out, too! Royce Lewis can't play with stains on his shirt, and everybody knows the infield grass stain was still there a little bit after the All Star Break!

I don't disagree with you there, but mostly they just wind up there because a team got stuck with them or those starters signed MiLB contracts with invites. Alex Wood - I suppose a good comp for Paddack to support your position would be Alex Wood (pun recognized while typing, I now claim it was intended), who the Athletics signed to a 1 year $8.5MM deal. Cal Quantrill - The Rockies locked down Cal Quantrill for 1 year $6.5MM, but he was excellent in 2021-2022 before his terrible 2023. Spencer Turnbull is a pretty fair comp IMHO, signed with the Phillies for $2MM. A terrible team who has trouble recruiting / signing pitching might be interested in Paddack (Rockies/Athletics), I suppose, but that's not a lot of market. If Paddack is going to have much market other than the Abyssal Plains, the Twins are going to need to eat contract.

I get the feeling you just really like Pablo Lopez or articles about him because the last few weeks is where Lopez salvaged a miserable season, not where he "tired down." Looking at Lopez's performance and the Twins' collapse this season. The collapse is tied to the last 6 weeks of the season where Lopez made 8 starts. Quality Start 6.0+ IP, 3ER or fewer. QS2 = 5.0+ IP, ERA under 4.00. Pre-collapse Lopez = 4.67 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 50% Quality Starts, 54% QS2 8/18-9/29 Lopez = 2.50 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 75% Quality Starts, 75% QS2% Lopez ranked #87 in ERA in 2024 for the 156 starters with 70+ innings pitched. Lopez ranked #47 in ERA in 2023 for the 150 starters with 70+ innings pitched. Lopez ranked #74 in ERA in 2022 for the 153 starters with 70+ innings pitched. The only season Lopez has looked like a potential ace in his entire career was his injury shortened 2021. Like Maeda's 2020. I consider FIP stats for Lopez to be guidelines to compare his seasons rather than valuable in comparing him to other pitchers as he almost always significantly underperforms the FIP metrics.

Paddack would be taking a MiLB deal if he was a free agent. Why would any team give up anything of value for him without the Twins eating a ton of salary? I think people believe Paddack was good, but he never was. Doesn't strike many guys out, doesn't generally issue a lot of free passes, but gives up a ton of hits. He's like a less talented version of Kyle Gibson, but if Gibson was hurt 1/2 the year or more every year.

I think FIP can be helpful, but its honestly a super primitive stat prone to error so using it as a single data source like gospel is a bad idea in my opinion. Most pitchers are going to perform at their FIP over the long haul, but there are pitchers like Pablo Lopez, for instance, who almost always perform worse than their FIP in real life.

Stop it. We both know it was all David Popkins fault. The Twins are absolutely ready for a World Series run now!

Margot wasn't a CF. You're also creating a false dilemma as it wasn't Taylor vs. Margot or else! We do not have a top 3 farm system. Brooks Lee and David Festa graduated. The Twins did have a top 3 farm system the year before Falvey as well. Falvey can't budget appropriately. He doesn't address needs before addressing wants. 4 playoff appearances in 8 years. 1 playoff series win. Falvey may have kept this franchise from becoming derelict, but he certainly hasn't elevated this franchise at all.