bean5302

@Greglw3 I'm not quoting your Nelson Cruz comparison as that's a huge post of inline data. I don't really see the relevance in regard to Cruz vs. Keirsey, either. Nelson Cruz got his first call into the big show at age 24 and then bounced back and forth between MiLB and MLB. During his time bouncing around, Cruz dominated AAA, and he raked for years prior to that at a substantially younger age than Keirsey. Cruz 2004 a23 AA = OPS .919 2005 a24 AA = OPS .965 2005 a24 AAA = OPS .873 2006 a25 AAA = wRC+ 137 2007 a26 AAA = wRC+ 181 2008 a27 AAA = wRC+ 177 2008 a27 MLB = wRC+ 168 If you wanted to play the late bloomer card, you'd need to find a player who wasn't dominating the upper minors before age 25 because guys get called up if they're hitting well in the upper minors. It's going to be nearly impossible to find a comp for DaShawn Keirsey because of that. Josh Donaldson was a good example of a late bloomer, but he was in MLB at age 24 and had a history of crushing baseballs at least sporadically back to age 21. Maybe more recently, Brent Rooker, but Rooker utterly owned MiLB and was in the big show at age 25. There's really nothing in Keirsey's profile to suggest he's going to be able to hit well enough at the MLB level to hold down a roster spot. He doesn't walk a lot. He strikes out quite a bit, and he has mediocre power. If I were to pick a comp for Keirsey, it's Trevor Larnach. Keirsey and Larnach are the same age, born only 3 months apart. Both were drafted out of college in 2018. Larnach is weak defensively, but he was still called up at age 24 because he was hitting very well in the high minors whereas Keirsey was struggling in the low minors at that point. Larnach, despite all his experience at the highest levels and the advantages of MLB experience, and the history of being a far better player than Keirsey, is still a little questionable as a reliable starter.

Pretty sure Cody is advocating the possibility of rebuilding the missing players in the aggregate like the conversation with Athletics scouts in the meeting room in Moneyball, but I don't think there's a solid foundation behind it here. Lewis is already a starter so it's not like he can replace part of any other player. Other players like Lee, Castro and Keirsey can't play defense only or pinch hitter only. They have to play both in the field and at the plate. Neither Keirsey nor Castro are as good as Buxton in the field or at the plate, let alone both, and Lee isn't as good in the field or at the plate as Correa. The argument for Festa as a potential replacement for Ryan is legitimate since at least Festa occupies a slot in the rotation he wouldn't have without injuries to Ryan, Paddack and probably DeSclafani even. Ryan's first half performances are often excellent, with poor 2nd half results, but there's a bit of a catch even here, though. Ryan was already trying to replace Pablo Lopez who was trying to replace Sonny Gray. Festa as a mid rotation playoff starter? I mean, it could happen, but it feels like an incredibly tall ask given his limited success at AAA, his inability to pitch deep into games, and his up and down results.

Drafted out of college in 2018. Every stop along the way with over 100 PA 2018 a21 (Rookie Ball) - wRC+ 111 2019 a22 (A Ball) - wRC+ 29 2020 a23 (2020) - DNP 2021 a24 (A+ Ball) - wRC+ 96 2022 a25 (AA) - wRC+ 86 ---------------------------------- This is where legitimate prospect status is lost 2023 a26 (AA) - wRC+ 123 2023 a26 (AAA) - wRC+ 93 2024 a27 (AAA) - wRC+ 116 2024 represents only the 2nd season in his entire career where he hasn't hit below average in a stop with over 100 PA. His last 256 plate appearances in AAA (since his return from injury on 6/22) is wRC+ 98. Saying Keirsey isn't known for his bat seems reasonable to me, especially since through age 25 he was below average at virtually every level of baseball. How the Twins have handled Keirsey reminds me quite a bit of Nick Gordon, except Keirsey was older and less successful at pretty much every level he played.

I think this is just a correction in luck (he was barreling like 20% of pitches in the previous 20 games) in combination with mental stress and it's got to be a gut punch to be pushed off his side of the infield for a rookie who hasn't been able to hit or play defense particularly well. Of course, Lewis' own defensive woes are obvious, but I don't see them improving without experience and consistent playing time. Kepler, Buxton and Correa are all out, and the Twins are mishandling Lewis. It doesn't matter if it's baseball or the corporate world, your employees need to feel important, valued and empowered. I can't see much of that in the Twins' management philosophies looking in from the outside so I'm not sure where the spark is supposed to come from? It's not easy to get up, get motivated, lift yourself up when you're being replaced and pushed off the job you like, the rest of the staff around you isn't performing well, and the company isn't hitting goals.

That was 2022, and it's not relevant because of what happened in 2023. Gray was happy with his utilization in 2023 where he pitched 184 innings and went 6+ innings regularly which is why his quotes and comments after 2023 were positive about the Twins.

Keirsey is not 28 so the article doesn't start off on a good foot, but it's not like it's material as Keirsey is 27 and 3 months at the moment. He turns 28 next May. The history is clear Keirsey is an extreme long shot as prospects who don't force their way onto a roster by age 25 or 26 are almost never successful. DaShawn Keirsey's CF defensive numbers are weaker than Austin Martin's were. Keirsey might be okay in CF, but he's almost certainly not going to be a plus defender at the position. Honestly, I don't see any way Martin isn't superior to Keirsey, and Martin is honestly that prototypical 4th outfielder type. There's about a 5% chance Keirsey can manage a wRC+ 90 or higher at the MLB level in my opinion. Keirsey struggled two years ago in AA (a25). He struggled last year in AAA (a26). He's struggled half the season in AAA this year. Despite a fiery hot little streak recently, Keirsey is .284/.340/.428 OPS .768 wRC+ 98 since coming back from his injury on 6/22. Below average at AAA. At age 27. There's are reasons Keirsey wasn't called up until the Twins had injuries stack up, and reasons he isn't being played by the Twins currently. He's gotten 3 plate appearances since he was called up. For whatever reason, Keirsey seems to be a huge site writer favorite, but I don't see any of the positive projectability in him. I think it's great he got to the big show, and he'll get his chance to play at the MLB level to create some memories. I consider it absolutely unreasonably wild to suggest Keirsey can replace Buxton.

Glad Jenkins has made up for his lost start to the season and struggles at the plate early. I don't think this makes any impact on expectations. Jenkins on the Twins before the very end of 2025 would be a major stretch in my opinion, but 2026 was always the plan. Emmanuel Rodriguez could be with Minnesota next year, but he's just lost so much time it feels like it'd be pretty questionable to give him a permanent job in the outfield out of the gate. The biggest surprise impacts to the Twins might be Trevor Larnach's major revised approach making him a legitimate potential corner OF. I didn't see that coming at all. I figured he's stick as a quasi-4th corner outfielder injury replacement depth option. Also, Payton Eeles coming out of Indy ball and looking like an absolutely legit potential every day player. The Twins still desperately need a full time starting caliber outfielder who can cover center field DaShawn Keirsey has about a 0.1% chance of being that guy as far as I'm concerned. I was hoping Rodriguez would be able to force his way up onto the roster for the final couple months of the season, but the thumb really side tracked that.

I don't see the Twins as particularly injury ravaged. Buxton typically only plays 80 games a year. His availability is normal, even a little better than normal this year. Correa's loss has hurt and so has Ryan's but compared to MLB teams in general, the Twins' injury woes aren't atypical at all from what I can see. This team is just playing sloppy baseball. Baldelli's moves have often been perplexing, but the way the team is playing reflects the convergence of many problems created by the front office in general. 1. Failure to address team needs this past offseason. 2. Failure to find creative solutions to needs at the deadline, obviously hampered severely by the ownership, but this is a chicken or egg type of question as well. 3. Philosophies which seem to ignore real world complexity in favor of absolute faith in limited data, like the anybody can play any defensive position approach with very limited experience or the pinch hitting platoon concept.

The Twins look like the team which was playing back in early April. Still, they're in a good position thanks to how surprisingly uninspired the rest of the AL Wildcard favorites have been. The Royals rolled over against Cleveland, but the Twins have seemingly struggled even worse. The Red Sox are trying to avoid the playoffs at all costs, even dropping games to the lowly White Sox. Meanwhile, Detroit and Seattle have moved back into striking distance thanks to Minnesota's free fall. Over the past month. Starter ERA = 13th vs. DET (5th), SEA (6th), BOS (7th) Reliever ERA = 20th vs. DET (1st), SEA (11th), BOS (30th... OUCH) Lineup RBI = 20th vs. DET (16th), SEA (14th), BOS (21st) Lineup wOBA = 20th vs. DET (22nd), SEA (19th), BOS (26th) Detroit is looking like a real threat to eat the Twins' playoff hopes, and Seattle is becoming a significant threat. Boston just got Story back who could maybe help the lineup, but clearly they need relievers. This Twins team does not feel like last year's squad which had some magic and mojo.

Eeles is listed anywhere from 5'5 to 5'8 depending on your source, but he's always listed at like 180lbs. Saints = 5'5" Kernels = 5'7" Costal Carolina = 5'7" Chicago Dogs (Indy) = 5'7" Cedarville University = 5'8"

I'm concerned about Festa remaining serviceable in the rotation, but his overall Stuff+ values are average, with other pitch modeling systems being much more bullish on Festa's changeup. Time will tell how Festa performs as the scouting reports get better. Festa certainly has a lot less margin for error with his limited pitch repertoire than a guy like Zebby Matthews, but Matthews' actual stuff doesn't include as good of a fastball or a true plus pitch right now. I think both guys may have what it takes to stick at the back end of a rotation, but they both have some work to do if they're going to excel in the future. With the tight budget ownership is expected to cinch down on the front office for 2025, rotational depth is likely going to be a major weakness for the Twins.

I'd be surprised if the front office moved Paddack to the 'pen given their aversion for paying relievers. I think the front office has been much more willing to eat salary or trade assets to move players they don't think fit the organization. I expect the Twins will aggressively shop Paddack, and they'll be willing to part with money from their international signing bonus pool to get it done.

Considering Gray was on record as saying the Twins checked all the boxes in regard to what he was looking for and he certainly presented his experience in Minnesota highly favorably. https://www.mlb.com/news/sonny-gray-on-possible-future-with-twins-before-hitting-free-agency

Royce Lewis didn't want to play 2B, either, but I assume there's less hate for him actually being on public record about that. Interestingly enough, despite making it public he didn't want to play 2B, the Twins shoved him over there anyway. The entire source of Max Kepler's unwillingness to play center field seems to stem from Gleeman's insider info that Kepler feels like he wears out and breaks down more while playing CF consistently. Kepler, like pretty much all players, prefers to play a static position. I have never seen another source or a single comment from Kepler in regard to him playing CF nor have I ever found a source where Kepler refused or resisted a push to play CF. Of course we never see Kepler in CF anymore, but that undoubtedly has a lot more to do with Kepler not being the speedy runner he was at age 25 anymore. It's been more than a year or two since Kepler had the speed which is really necessary to cover CF effectively so it feels unlikely the Twins would want him to cover CF anyway. Kepler last posted a sprint speed of 28.0 (which is about the bare minimum for a CF'er) or higher in 2020, and right about where Austin Martin runs. These days, Kepler's sprint speeds are under even 27ft/sec, which is below average for even a corner outfielder. Max Kepler has been a solid starter for the Twins for a long time. He hasn't been an inconsistent producer, either. Outside of 1 year (2019), Kepler has never produced less than 1.6 fWAR or more than 2.8 fWAR in any full MLB season during his career, though he certainly looks like a guy in the twilight of his MLB experience. He's basically been a league average-ish bat with great corner OF defense almost every year, but he's clearly in decline at this point. No longer a speedy or plus defensive player, it all comes down to his bat, which isn't a plus at Target Field at least. Not sure why the Twins weren't able to move him over the past two seasons, when they should have been looking to move him, but this should be his last year in a Twins uniform. He's been a good player on a franchise which has historically been a farm team for larger market teams. I'm sure he'll find a 1 year $6-8MM deal somewhere around the league at this point. Maybe a bit more if his bat heats up to end the season.

Kyle Farmer has played 4 complete games at 1B in his entire MLB career, all of them in 2019. He's not a first baseman. The ball should have been caught, but even if it wasn't, no way that ball should have gotten past him from the view I saw. Miranda hasn't played much 1B this year, but he's got a dozen or so games there this year. He couldn't move to 1B because he was a DH so the pitcher would have to bat, and that could have meant pulling Ober after 6 innings for a pinch hitter if the Twins got a couple base runners in the top of the 7th. Julien has a handful of games at 1B in AAA this year, but he wasn't available to move to 1B because Baldelli pulled him for Castro who struck out for Julien. When you don't have any available 1B depth on the roster so why do you pinch hit? Baldelli's call to replace Ober makes no sense to me. His average velocity wasn't really falling off with his slowest fastballs coming in the 3rd and 5th innings. He was only at 84 pitches and he was totally in control of the Royals' lineup. When you have a pitcher dominating like that, you do not pull them unless there is an injury concern (velocity dropping or exceeding pitch count limit where you expect they should be tired). Relying on what has been a very shaky bullpen in a close game against a divisional rival in a playoff chase vs. a pitcher who is absolutely cruising? Nonsense.

I seem to constantly see comments from people who are advocates for stronger defense praising Carlos Santana and Christian Vazquez. Two balls bounced off the glove of Vazquez this game. A pick off bounces off the glove of Santana. All of them are "throwing errors." I guarantee you those are all "fielding errors" if the ball came off a bat and not a throwing hand. It seems to be my "eye test" which has me feeling like Santana and Vazquez get the benefit of not needing to catch balls that hit their gloves, and especially for Santana, he'll never come off 1B to prevent a ball from sailing wide. He lets the throws sail wide because it doesn't impact his defensive numbers, and the runner advances to 2B on the "throwing error." Vazquez was trying to catch runners stealing 2nd when a base runner was on 3rd seemingly time and again only to allow runs to score. I really don't see the elite defense other people do.

Because ownership was expected to make a knee jerk 180* reversal on how they want to fund the franchise? The Correa signing is how teams win World Series'

The Twins have $5MM more budget to work with if Santana isn't part of the roster. If they don't bring in Margot and instead work with Austin Martin, oh, that's $9MM. What do the Twins do when Lewis goes down, then? Castro and Farmer. The front office performed horribly this offseason. Horribly.

I think Rodriguez could potentially break camp with the Twins out of Spring Training next year at the earliest. Minnesota desperately needs a center fielder.

Sounds like the Twins are kind of cramming 2B down Lewis' throat. https://www.mlb.com/news/royce-lewis-gives-twins-second-base-depth Very well run franchise.

Does not require spending. My offseason plan had the Twins trading assets to Boston to get Jarren Duran, my backup was Wilyer Abreu. Falvey had anywhere from $20-40MM of salary to spend depending on how he handled the offseason. He got caught sleeping behind the wheel yet again, let the buyers fill their baskets and there was no demand left for guys he should have moved, and no payroll capacity left for positions he needed to fill.

I mean, who could possibly anticipate Buxton not putting in a 150 games?

It's always interesting watching how people explain phenomenon. Vazquez is a poor hitter who had even worse luck out of the gate. His luck is reversing. It's not like he's hitting balls harder or something. The "toe tap" might have helped a little, but it hasn't changed him. Jeffers is an average hitter who had things really go his way out of the gate. He's definitely changed his approach in a manner similar to Larnach. Swinging more than ever has cost him a 30% reduction in walks, but Jeffers is making dramatically more contact high in the zone. Overall, he's an improved hitter.

They really do. Some of the best teams in MLB have suffered far worse than the Twins in terms of injuries this year.

LOL, dude hasn't played a single at bat in AA in 3 months, where he only has 167 PA anyway.