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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Maybe we suffer from Sano syndrome. During Sano’s age 20 A+ season, he struck out less (and slashed better) than ERod…and Sano did so in a tougher environment (the FSL) for hitting than the Midwest league. Having said that, Sano never developed really at all beyond age 22. If anything he regressed. And that doesn’t have to be the case for Rodriquez. We’ll see.
  2. jkcarew
    Agree that the 120 innings…which would be a fine rookie and/or #5 starter number…is very much in question still. He was at LESS THAN 3 innings per start last year, which isn’t any more than he did the year before at age 19. Seems inordinately conservative even for the Twins. Now (presumably) he’ll be working deeper into games than he ever has as a pro…and against the best lineups he’s ever seen. Big challenge.
  3. jkcarew
    All fair points…but then you’re basically saying (as management) that we’re not ever debuting a starter before age 22-23…no matter how good and talented he is. He averaged LESS THAN 3 innings per start last year. He threw more innings at age 19 than he did at 20. Granted, maybe it’s because there is something about him that gives management pause.
  4. jkcarew
    Don’t know why they’ve gone over-the-top ultra/extreme conservative with his work load. Sure there’s a reason. But, it basically closes the book on any meaningful work with the big club in 2024. The only option being a bullpen role, further postponing his development as a starter. Pretty much HAVE to stretch him out in the minors this year. How can he prove he can/can’t be a starter until he’s tried? I’m guessing working up to at least 80-pitch, 5+ inning starts this year. And then we see him in 2025. The objective should be that you move him, with reasonable level of confidence, to the rotation NEXT spring, or make him a reliever. One or the other…right out of spring training.
  5. jkcarew
    I’ll take range over arm strength all day long in CF. The historical list of above average CF’s that had pea-shoots for arms is pretty impressive.
  6. jkcarew
    Max’s Twins career has been harder to kill than Keith Richards. He’s a nice guy to have, but I don’t think you can justify an average starting right-fielder salary in his next contract, unless it’s a 1 or 2 year deal. And I think Max will want/expect more.
  7. jkcarew
    It occurs to me that it would seem easier to add velocity from age 20/21 to age 23/24 when said 20 year old is 6-6, and not 6-0. Above average control/command, just the opposite.
  8. jkcarew
    It’s a great question. My two cents…I’m with Nicksaviking…command, command, command. And he’ll have to prove it at the AAA level, which as you point out, he hasn’t yet. To me, the “shape” of his pitches offer opportunity to make things marginally better. But to take his command to the next level, work consistently ahead, and get AAA/MLB hitters to swing at his pitches, is where the money will be.
  9. jkcarew
    I’ll take any comp from a pool of players that played…say…140 games or more for 8 or more years in a 10 year stretch. If Lewis does that, he’ll probably be more valuable than 60% of those guys. I’m already convinced health is the only concern, not development.
  10. jkcarew
    The icebergs we have to navigate in 2024 are miles away, and yet we’ve already started to rearrange chairs on the deck. Timing seems odd with Balazovic…probably simply comes down to evaluating guys to be at the same level and preferring the one(s) that have minor league options, rather than one(s) that don’t…given that the expected role is emergency/fill-in. Then again, doing it now might increase the odds (still unlikely, IMO) that Balazovic slips through the cracks.
  11. jkcarew
    Balazovic just not good enough for a guy with no options. He’ll likely figure things out well enough at AAA over the next year or two to stick with a major league club in the bullpen. Lots of things delayed the process here, not the least of which were the injuries and the utter lack of ability to work from ahead in the count at the upper levels.
  12. jkcarew
    As mentioned…needs to improve BOTH command and velocity. Can definitely happen still, but usually doesn’t happen ‘all-of-a-sudden’. Even a move to the bullpen, by itself, doesn’t solve the command challenge. In small sample AAA relief outings, the K/BB ratio popped, but HR% and SLG were actually worse than his starter outings. Agree, he still looks the part of a legit prospect. But…at least for the Twins…the expiration date on that status could expire quicker than we might think if he can’t add value in Minneapolis.
  13. jkcarew
    It wouldn’t surprise me if (when an injury happens) Martin is promoted to play every day, and Gordon remained in the utility role. (Predicated on Martin playing well in AAA, of course.)
  14. jkcarew
    I think he’s turning out to be a high floor guy rather than a high ceiling guy. And that’s OK, That kind of defensive flexibility, baserunning, combined with the ability to make contact and take walks plays very well in a lineup full of power/KO guys. To me he seems like Nick Gordon with better OBP skills. I’ll take that. I can see Gordon getting another chance, but the leash should be short…he and Martin seem redundant…and the right handed bat fits better, I think.
  15. jkcarew
    IMO, had to get a right-handed bat…hoping against hope that it would be a CF option. I’m guess MAT now…it can’t be Castro or Gordon, can it??
  16. jkcarew
    Further, this was D2 baseball…quality/consistency of defense, fields, as uneven as the opposition. It’s a completely different environment than 95% of mid-round college drafties. Background is more Nick Anderson than David Festa. Same floor, higher ceiling.
  17. jkcarew
    Late bloomer (by today’s standards)…was pretty much a non-prospect in HS. Then to a D2 college. They should (and probably will) take their time with him. His background and freak athleticism warrants patience. Huge upside for a ‘throw in’…but I don’t expect him to be ready, even in a best-case scenario (at least as a starter) until at least 2026.
  18. jkcarew
    You willing to bet on that? He’s played 100 games in center one time in his career. That was 7 seasons ago. Since then, he’s topped out at 86. If he miraculously, somehow, makes 100 games in 2024…as unlikely as that is…it leaves 60+ for someone else, some of which, in all likelihood, would be playoff games, (if the Twins make it).
  19. jkcarew
    No. But, I wouldn’t prioritize a RH bat, platoon-type, for CF depth…I’d prioritize the best all-around player at CF I can get. So, I’m HOPING that someone is out there (probably in a trade) that gets us more than a MAT. This is what I think they should be trying for before settling on a MAT. (MAT would be better than nothing, though.)
  20. jkcarew
    So, we should keep an often injured veteran at a position where we have an option (maybe two with Lee) that can be nearly as valuable in 2024…more valuable in the case of another Polanco injury?…And for a good opportunity to improve the back of the rotation in 2024? I’m not convinced the trade (on paper) makes the team worse in 2024. We’ll see, though.
  21. jkcarew
    IMO, they need an center fielder that adds value even if he has to play every day. Not a RH platoon option. Because we KNOW he’ll have to play every day for long stretches. (And that ain’t MAT). Such is probably only available in a trade.
  22. jkcarew
    Versailles had 4 consecutive season’s (at least)…62-65 where about any team in baseball would have been thrilled with him being their shortstop. Offensively, 65 was head and shoulders above all other years in his career…(although 63 and 64 were solid offensive years)…but he was a premier fielder at THE premier defensive position for a long stretch, regardless of what WAR says (doesn’t say) about his value.
  23. jkcarew
    And 62, when his defense was so impressive, he got MVP votes.
  24. jkcarew
    Two all-star appearances, two gold gloves, two years appearing on MVP leaderboard…over three different years; 94 runs scored and a 104 OPS+ in a fourth year. Nothing at all close to a “one hit wonder”.
  25. jkcarew
    Thanks…although, doesn’t change my take on Miranda for 2024…performance or injury, he’s not a guy a serious team would pencil in as a starter next season. No defensive flexibility or value and big questions offensively now. Of course, the Twins are flashing obvious signs of not being a serious team next year, so…
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