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IaBeanCounter

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  1. The 4 teams each have 68 losses are vying for 3 playoff spots. Toronto has the toughest schedule with 6 against TB and 3 vs NY. With that schedule I believe they will either be the 6 seed or they won't make the playoffs. The only team I don't want to face is the NYY. Their elimination number is 3. The worst opponent for the Twins is a team that is red hot over the next 10 days.
  2. I didn't realize Rowson is now the assistant batting coach for Detroit. I wish he was still with the Twins.
  3. I don't have a preference of which team the Twins will play. How much experience playoff experience did the 1987 Twins have (previous playoff appearance I believe in 1970). All 4 of the teams are beatable and are capable of beating the Twins. I suspect it will come down to who has the best pitching during the series. The Twins seem to do well against established pitchers, but flail helplessly against unknown or new pitchers.
  4. I would have Funderburk over Paddack to have 2 LHRP. Edit: I see you still have Funderburk on the Roster, who did Thielbar replace.
  5. The only good thing about Correa going to the IL is that he won't break the GIDP record.
  6. I wish the Rangers had the LA Dodgers to play between the Seattle series'. But it's the other LA team, the Angels.
  7. I don't think the Twins will face Seattle in the WC round as after today they have 7 games vs Tex and 3 vs Hou. If they play well they will be the West Div winner. If they play poorly they won't make the playoffs. Of the WC contenders they have the best record after the all star break (38-24), however against playoff contending teams the are 14-15. The Twins have the second best record after the AS break at 35-26 and are 15-12 against playoff contenders.
  8. I agree, the Twins need to cinch first. The Cincinnati series is very important as Cle is playing KC and Hou is playing Balt. Ideally the Twins leave Cincinnati with a magic number of 3 or less and know whether the 2 seed is attainable (Balt sweeps Hou.)
  9. I hope Toronto can be the 5 seed which will put 3 East teams in one side of the bracket. It will also probably mean that NYY will be knocked out of the postseason as Tor has 6 games against both TB & NYY. I am hopeful that by the end of the week the Twins will have clinched the division (3 vs Cinn & 3 vs LAA while Cle has 3 vs KC and 4 vs Balt). Of the West teams, I believe that the Twins have a better that 50/50 of winning first round and an good chance (somewhat less than 50/50) of winning the 2nd round.
  10. Watching the Sox broadcast when Lewis came up the bases loaded they showed his 2022/23 base loaded history. 11 PA, BA .545 4 grand slams, I don't think the Sox wanted to give him anything to hit. Closest thing to an intentional walk.
  11. Baseball Savant has a swing and miss chart for batters. I tried to post it here, but my tech abilities are limited. What it showed was Julien was -1 runs on balls in the heart of the plate (i.e. true strikes) with 6 runs created by swings and -7 runs on takes. In the shadow zone around the true strike zone (50/50 pitches) Julien was -15 runs (-12 on swings, -3 on takes). In the next two zones, chase and waste, Julien was -4 on swings and +26 on takes for net of +22 on true balls. I was surprised that Julien was a net negative on the pitches in the heart of the plate. All takes in this zone are negative, but I expected him to have a positive swing results that would exceed the takes. It also surprised me that Julien was -12 on swings in the shadow zone. It seems to me that he has been rung up a lot on pitches in this area, so I expected the takes to be a large negative, but was only -3.
  12. Did Julien know Farmer was running? I suspect that he did as Rocco may have put on the play to encourage Julien to expand his strike zone as he seems to have numerous called 3rd strikes. In regards to Kepler, has there been any explanation as to why he botched the play (lost in sun, lost perception when going from sun to shade, miss judged how far it would carry, etc.)?
  13. If you told me before this home stand started that we would go 3-3 and take 7 (maybe 8) games off our magic #, I would have taken it with no reservations. However, the 3 losses are disappointing: 1) Jax gives up 2 runs in the 9th after the Twins were 0-7 with RISP (0-3 in the 9th) 2) Correa blows an easy play resulting in an unearned run, but also causing Gray to throw additional pitches that causes him to leave after 4. Which results in BP usage resulting in 5 addl runs in a 3 run game 3) Kepler plays a fly like he has never been in Target Field which results in 3 runs. Jax comes into a tie game in the 9th and gives up a homer. All three of these could have been wins and some of our wins could have been losses (Castro 2 run Hr). It is frustrating, but at the same time promising that the Twins can compete with the best.
  14. "Carlos Correa wishes he had that one back" liner by Josh Lowe (no relation) that went from being an inning-ending double play into a run-scoring single in the blink of an eye. How close was that to being an out. On the Gameday video it looked like the ball was hit hard, but they didn't show any video of Correa's reaction to the ball.
  15. When to pull a starter? TB thought Littell could get through 7, but ended losing the game. Rocco has made similar decisions and ended losing games. It's a no win situation.
  16. I'm sure Cle thought the Angels were going to be cakewalk and ended up losing 3 of 4. I agree that after Tampa the Twins have a favorable schedule. However, the Twins seem to play to the level of their competition. When we expect a team to roll over, they end up winning the series.
  17. I don't expect Buxton to be back this year, unless he comes back for the playoffs, ala Kirk Gibson. I do believe he can be back next year after another surgery. Lewis came back after 2 knee surgeries.
  18. Positions players have a 10 day IL, pitchers have a 15 day IL.
  19. You could make a strong case that Francona decision to pitch Fry in the first game probably won this game for Cle. If RP pitchers had been used for 4 innings. The Twins would have been more familiar with them and they may have been tired yesterday. Didn't like the Fry pitching, but it was within the rules and may have allowed Cle to salvage a game.
  20. "Unfortunately, Ober hit a wall as the calendar turned to August while he also passed a new career-high in innings pitched. Over his subsequent six appearances, Ober's performance struggled mightily. He allowed 21 earned runs in 28 innings with opponents hitting .328/.377/.588 (.965) against him, including eight home runs. " "Ober has proven himself at the big-league level and is part of the team's long-term plan for the starting rotation. It's tough not to think he's gotten the short end of the stick on multiple occasions this year." These statements appear to be contradictory. Ober needed a rest and he had options (and had already been optioned), so IMHO the FO was correct in sending him to STP. I also believe that optioning him was better than putting him on the IL. I believe a player can be recalled after 10 days, while the IL requires 15 days. He is currently eligible to return from STP. Edit: I believe he will be recalled if DK doesn't pitch well Friday.
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