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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, that's why hitters with Buxton's speed don't bunt for a hit at a 1.000 clip. But if they can do it 40% of the time, that's a good weapon to have in an arsenal.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's hard to predict the need/wants of the deadline this far in advance. Here's one scenario: The Twins are five games back. Polanco can't handle short but can hit. Dozier is sitting at 17 homers and .790 OPS. Mejia is struggling, Berrios is meh, Hughes is out for the season or in the pen, and Santana is chugging along with a 3.80 ERA. That's a pretty clear situation where you trade Dozier and strongly consider keeping Santana. And you can run a dozen different scenarios of that type and make a different decision every time.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins are five games out of the Central and three games out of the WC, I don't see them trading players. And I'm not sure how I feel about that. Lots of variables to consider at that point. I could see a scenario where it makes sense to trade one of Dozier and Santana but maybe not both. It really depends on the rest of the roster.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing is that using a linear arc, a 75 win season means they're a fringe contender at the deadline, probably within a few games of .500. If the Twins sell in that situation, I'm okay with that... but I'm going to hope for better because it's in the best long-term interest of this team to win baseball games. It's also possible the Twins are awful in the first half and decent in the second half but I'm not going to hope for bad-then-good. That seems like a bit too much to ask.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    They have the first pick in this year's draft. They can move Dozier and not be impacted at the level they'll be impacted by losing Santana. There is literally one rookie on this team. We're past the point of collecting prospects for the future and hoping for high draft picks. This team needs to start winning baseball games or it's unlikely they'll ever win baseball games with this core. If the Twins are out of it and trade Santana, that's the right move... but I refuse to hope they lose baseball games because it means their young core stalled out for the third consecutive season. If Sano and Buxton stumble again, it's unlikely they'll ever be above average players. These aren't guys with 200 MLB PAs to their name anymore. Sano has 800 MLB PAs. This is the point where they either start performing or it's unlikely they'll ever perform at the MLB level. Buxton has a bit more flexibility in both age and experience but he'll finish this season with around 1100 MLB PAs if he stays healthy.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Nah, I strongly hope for the former: 1. I like watching a winning team 2. If the Twins are in the race, that means they're getting solid contributions from their core of young players If the Twins get all the way to the break hovering around .500, it means a good portion of Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, Mejia, and Berrios are having acceptable or better seasons.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    If Santana is able to put together another good season, that puts the Twins in a good position going into the break. Either he helps them win ballgames and hang in the race or the Twins have a *very* nice trade piece at the deadline.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed, but he made *so many* horrible plays last season - balls hit right at him that he missed - that I struggle to understand how the metrics would have missed them in previous seasons if his glove is truly made of lead.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Better Off Dead. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdF_Vo4B6Ms
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    He was terrible last season, no one is denying that... But he wasn't terrible in previous seasons, at least according to the metrics. That leaves us two options: 1. Something went disastrously wrong with Grossman in 2016 and it's possible that something can be fixed 2. The metrics were either wrong or didn't have enough sample size to accurately evaluate him Either is possible.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I'm surprised he's there against a lefty. Against a righty, I can see the logic. Oh well, it'll be interesting to watch.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Mauer batting cleanup today. As absurd as it sounds, what the hell. Run with it. I'm amused.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, like I have one of those things laying around the house. Seriously, though... I don't have a radio in the house.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I refuse to attribute the flaws of the old front office to the new front office, even if the early results look similar. It's Opening Day after a single offseason where the front office was put into a rather uncomfortable situation (and entered the situation far later than anyone would have liked, I'm sure). If I see the old problems pop up in June and July, then I will become concerned. We're four months into a regime that needs at least three years to evaluate. I will give them a bit more leash before jumping off the bandwagon. None of this means I agree with or like some of their decisions but so far, I haven't seen any deal-breaker moves/non-moves.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair. I think the 113 PAs with two triples is more a byproduct of luck than anything. Buxton hit nine homers during that span and that's unlikely to continue. A bunch of those homers will likely fall short of the wall, turning into opportunities for triples. I don't know if power will have that much effect on Buxton's triples ability. Though he played in cavernous Comerica and batted left-handed, Granderson had plenty of power himself. I guess it really boils down to how pull-happy Buxton will be this season. If he turns into Brian Dozier in that regard, he's going to see his triples total suffer as a result.* *if Byron is a better hitter as a pull guy, that's fine
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I have to figure out a way to listen to the game on the radio. Damn you, T-Mobile! I love you for giving me MLB.tv for free again but hate you for doing it the day after Opening Day!
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Finally, a game that matters.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know if I'm overrating him but if he can do two things, I want him on the roster: 1. OPS against lefties at a .750 or higher clip, subbing for either Kepler or Rosario on a regular basis 2. Play acceptable defense, something he was able to do until last season according to advanced metrics (lots of SSS here) His career OPS against lefties is .776, which was obviously helped by last season. In 2014/15, he was bad against LHP. In 2013, he was good. SSS for all seasons when you get down to it. Anyway, my thinking is that Grossman doesn't have to be good to help this team, he only needs to fill in for other players' weaknesses and be acceptable in the role. Time will tell whether he can live up to that relatively low standard.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Surprisingly low on Grossman and Vargas. Not that you're wrong, just a bit surprised.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I agree that there are guys whose arms just break down faster and harder than other guys. That was kind of my point. Hughes hasn't suffered from extended overuse, his arm just wasn't that solid in the first place. That's not a knock on the guy, some guys have rubber arms, others don't... But it's hard to look at Hughes' track record and conclude an excess of innings is the cause of his ailments.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you're underestimating Buxton's speed. Despite being terrible for most of last season, he hit six triples in 330 plate appearances.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    No arguments from me there. The original Hughes deal was smart management and a steal. Then they doubled down.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It was the ten year term of the contract that floored me at the time. Sure, pay Pujols $30m a season for 7-8 years. That's too much money for anyone at that age but whatever, it's the going rate. But ten years? No, man, no.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Another way to put it is this: do we consider Francisco Liriano broken down because he has too many miles on his arm? Of course not. But... Francisco Liriano has pitched 600 more professional innings than Phil Hughes. So let's loop around to the original comparison in this article: CC Sabathia. Sabathia, through his age 30 season, had nearly double the MLB innings of Phil Hughes. A whopping 1150 more innings on his arm. Nearly six full seasons of additional innings by the time he was 30 years old. If you want to talk about a worn-down arm, there you have it. Phil Hughes' arm is not worn down from overuse.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    My point is that Hughes hasn't pitched that many innings. There are "injury prone" guys who track not that many innings behind Hughes when adjusted for age. The "too many miles on that horse" arguments don't hold much weight when you look at Hughes' arm mileage. As for Gibson, he broke his arm while pitching in college. I believe it may have been discovered later but there were question marks about his pre-draft college pitching performance and it was due to the fractured arm.
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