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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I agree that there are guys whose arms just break down faster and harder than other guys. That was kind of my point. Hughes hasn't suffered from extended overuse, his arm just wasn't that solid in the first place. That's not a knock on the guy, some guys have rubber arms, others don't... But it's hard to look at Hughes' track record and conclude an excess of innings is the cause of his ailments.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you're underestimating Buxton's speed. Despite being terrible for most of last season, he hit six triples in 330 plate appearances.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    No arguments from me there. The original Hughes deal was smart management and a steal. Then they doubled down.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    It was the ten year term of the contract that floored me at the time. Sure, pay Pujols $30m a season for 7-8 years. That's too much money for anyone at that age but whatever, it's the going rate. But ten years? No, man, no.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Another way to put it is this: do we consider Francisco Liriano broken down because he has too many miles on his arm? Of course not. But... Francisco Liriano has pitched 600 more professional innings than Phil Hughes. So let's loop around to the original comparison in this article: CC Sabathia. Sabathia, through his age 30 season, had nearly double the MLB innings of Phil Hughes. A whopping 1150 more innings on his arm. Nearly six full seasons of additional innings by the time he was 30 years old. If you want to talk about a worn-down arm, there you have it. Phil Hughes' arm is not worn down from overuse.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    My point is that Hughes hasn't pitched that many innings. There are "injury prone" guys who track not that many innings behind Hughes when adjusted for age. The "too many miles on that horse" arguments don't hold much weight when you look at Hughes' arm mileage. As for Gibson, he broke his arm while pitching in college. I believe it may have been discovered later but there were question marks about his pre-draft college pitching performance and it was due to the fractured arm.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Woof, what a terrible contract that we all saw coming a mile away.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Brett Anderson can't walk to the mound without hurting himself yet has managed to log 990 professional innings through his age 28 season. This is kinda fun.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Another example to really illustrate the innings: Kyle Gibson. Gibson broke his arm in college. He later had Tommy John surgery. He's been injured quite a bit in the majors. Gibson is basically the poster boy for not pitching innings. Through his age 28 season, he has just shy of 1000 professional innings. Through Hughes' age 28 season, he had a little over 1300 professional innings. Phil Hughes was pitching MLB games for the Yankees at the same age Gibson was drafted (and Gibson didn't pitch professionally until the following season). Jose Berrios is 22 years old. He has a little over 600 professional innings under his belt. If he pitches just 100 innings a season through his age 28 season, he'll still match Hughes in professional innings pitched.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I wasn't using Halladay as an example of longevity, only in response to the argument that Hughes has a lot of miles on his arm. He really doesn't. Another random example: Ricky Nolasco. Through his age 30 season, he had 2000 professional innings under his belt to Hughes' 1550 innings.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I think he can bunt more often than that. Ten attempts is once every 15 games. Given his speed, I think he can bunt more in the every 4-6 game range and keep defenses honest against him. That's one bunt attempt every 16-24 plate appearances.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, yes and no. While Hughes has been around for awhile, he only has 1200 career IP. And he came to the majors at a very young age. Is there a significant difference between throwing MLB and MiLB innings? I'm sure there's a small difference but it's not like MiLB guys throw 2-3mph under their limit to save their arm for the bigs. I just grabbed a pitcher randomly and looked at his stats: Roy Halladay. Despite Halladay not becoming a full-time regular until age 25, he already had 1500 IP by the time he finished his age 30 season. And Halladay threw 650 MiLB innings. Hughes threw only 340. A drop in velocity is to be expected as a pitcher crosses 30 years old but an immediate 2-3mph drop due to injury cannot be predicted.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    And it's hard to predict a guy will lose 3mph on his fastball at age 28.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    What's the over/under on Buxton triples this season if he plays 150 games? My first thought is 12 but thinking about it more, it could be around 15. The modern record was set by Curtis Granderson with 23 in 2007. Buxton has the potential to break that record, though he'll probably have to make more contact for it to happen. Any ball to the gap has the potential to be a three-bagger with his speed.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Polanco is my sleeper guy on this year's roster. He's quietly been a good player for quite some time now and I expect him to transition to MLB better than other prospects have in recent years. I'd be happy with a .730 OPS and thrilled with a .770 OPS.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not really sold on 17 home runs but that's a minor quibble. Those numbers look about right to me.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Terry Francona's style of bullpen management would drive me up the wall over 162 games but he's a damned fine manager. The reason he'd drive me up the wall is because it's boring baseball. It's also winning baseball but that doesn't mean it's fun to watch.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    If Hughes is indeed a 90-91mph guy going forward, I'd be thrilled with that number. It's probably his ceiling at that velocity, IMO.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    That's why you pick and choose your approach based on situation. If you clobber the ball the first two times to the plate and the infielders take a step back in the dirt, you consider bunting in that situation. Don't walk to the plate with a bunt in mind, let the fielders make that decision for you. Of course, this means Buxton only bunts maybe 25-40 times a season. And that's okay. Normally I'd say "don't bunt at all" but Buxton is so bloody fast that it only takes one step back from a fielder for Byron to have a very good chance of reaching first safely.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    The Vargas injury certainly put a kink in the team's plans for Opening Day but I don't like the decision they made in its wake. To me, it was close to a no-brainer to put Park back on the 40 man roster the moment Kennys wasn't on the team for the opener. This team can afford to have two DH(ish) types on the roster. Mauer shouldn't play every day anyway. Grossman can take some DH reps and some OF reps while Park takes some DH reps and some 1B reps. This isn't the best roster the Twins could field for the opener and that's incredibly disappointing in so many ways. I can begrudgingly accept the bullpen decisions but I don't like this decision at all.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    We're still in March. Good to have this kind of optimism but I can't say I share it.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm sorry but I don't agree with this at all. If the opposing team gives you a bunt for a hit, you take it. Buxton shouldn't be bunting to move runners over but he should absolutely bunt if he has a better than even chance of reaching first base safely.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    So do I but I can't fault the Twins for not saying yes to that trade. They were in an unfortunate spot. Hopefully at this year's deadline, there is more than ONE team looking for a second baseman.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough. You've been skeptical of Dozier for years. Not saying that as proof of anything, just a reality.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    He's a streaky hitter, for sure... which is why I predicted 32 homers for him. If you put a gun to my head, I'd probably predict 28-32. On the plus side for Dozier, his power has increased every year he's been in the league. 24 homers seems a bit low to me, though it's certainly possible. But no way am I predicting 40 again. I hope it happens but I'm not banking on it.
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