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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd have to check but I believe front offices are contractual, like the rest of baseball. It may not be a matter of whether you want to become a POBO but instead whether your current employer will let you become a POBO. Teams usually play nice with one another and let their front office people interview and take jobs between seasons but they could easily say they won't allow it to happen during the season. Could you imagine how upset Cleveland would be if Falvey asked to leave in May, just weeks before the draft?
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I want to see Garver next year for sure, I'm just not really sure it's a question whether Garver can handle backup catching duties if the front office feels his defense is adequate. Does it really matter if your backup catcher hits? I don't think it does. Even if Garver posts a .500 OPS in 2018 over 200 plate appearances, I don't know if I really care to "see what we've got" in 2017. I'm not saying I don't think Garver should get a taste of MLB this season, I just don't know if it really matters right now. He could come up in July or even August and get some reps.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm also not sure whether Adrianza is any better than Vielma but the front office has obviously taken a shine to Adrianza. I'm not saying that's necessarily a bad thing because Vielma is reportedly a polished infielder but if he came to Minnesota and started booting the ball and making stupid mistakes, he wouldn't be the first guy to do so (we all remember Hicks' early fielding difficulties in MLB). All in all, I'm far more concerned with what's (not) happening in the bullpen than I am the catching situation. Gimenez is on track to finish the season with 200 plate appearances. Even if you replace a .600 OPS with an .800 OPS over that time, the actual win difference isn't a whole lot. Not that I'm saying the Twins shouldn't be looking for an advantage here and there, only that the likely difference between Garver and Gimenez is rather small, and that's assuming Garver is the defensive equivalent of Gimenez (a rather big assumption).
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Man, I just don't see it that way. Maybe they're redundant right this moment but I'm still not sold that this infield will be here in July, either due to trade or injury. Having both Adrianza and Escobar gives a lot of leeway in case of injury. Escobar can step in as starter at 3B, SS, or 2B and likely hold his own, leaving Adrianza as the futility guy. It'd be nice if the Twins had an acceptable futility guy ready in the minors and Vielma might become that guy but he was only promoted to Rochester a few days ago. I'd stand pat with most of this roster for the time being.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    It's possible to get a GM midseason but I suspect that you'll limit your pool of candidates in a very bad way if you demand a midseason hire. Would Falvey have left midseason? Would Cleveland even let him leave? Hard to say but there's certainly a chance the Twins miss out on Falvey if they hire in June or July.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I just don't have a strong opinion on this. Murphy *should* be a capable hitter but his defense is middling. Garver has a better reputation as a defender, though Murphy earned his reputation in MLB while Garver did it in MiLB. Hard to get a read on that with any kind of accuracy.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    For some reason I had it stuck in my head that Garver was a lefty but he's not. In that case, another month or so in Rochester might be in order to see if his bat is legit and then consider giving him a bench spot. I don't like the idea of carrying three catchers but if one of them has the ability to hit, it's not such a problem. Still kinda hard to fit in another (essentially) no position player, though. Garver's stat line looks nice but he still has only about ~150 PAs in Rochester and his career MiLB OPS, even with the nice AAA run, is still only .769.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    They should call up the catcher that buys into the front office's plans and goals the best. And if that catcher is Chris Gimenez right now, well then I guess he stays a bit longer.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    You're not wrong there, I guess we just have different priorities. If the Twins acquired two arms better than Kintzler, I'd be in favor of moving him out of the closer role. That would make Kintzler the fourth best reliever on the team (I'd currently put only Duffey in front of him). I'm simply against moving Kintzler out of the closer spot before the Twins find two better relievers: one for the seventh, one for the eighth. I think those roles are more important than closer.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect everyone hoped Gibson would stay down longer, including the front office. Unfortunately, the weather hasn't cooperated. It allowed the Twins to punt on the fifth starter decision for quite some time but a reckoning is coming. Hopefully, both Mejia and Gibson step up and take the opportunity.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    His wRC+ lines up with my expectations. Previous to 2017, he was a solid, though unspectacular, hitter. This season is waaaaay above that. It will be interesting to follow if/when that BABIP normalizes.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. This is why I don't try to "play" the market. I buy stocks I believe in and stick with them for at least a year for the lowered tax rate. I tried to play a couple of stocks short-term and was soundly beaten for it. Know your limitations.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, Kintzler is going to occasionally give up a string of hits because he isn't a swing and miss guy. In a perfect world, you want that guy in the sixth, not the ninth. But Kintzler has a profile that plays out pretty well in a fresh inning situation. It usually requires multiple hits to score a run, as he doesn't issue a bunch of free passes and he doesn't offer up many gopher balls. Given his groundball tendencies, he should limit extra-base hits in general. Considering the Twins bullpen situation, the ninth inning seems like a pretty good fit.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I briefly mentioned that but it's an important point to note. Though Gordon has nearly as many triples in 2017 as he did in all of 2016. Now, we're dealing with relatively small numbers here so that could be an aberration but given the size of FSL stadiums, if Gordon was really ripping the ball in 2016, he probably should have had more triples. He's not nearly as fast as his brother but he's supposed to have pretty good wheels.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Nick, I don't really get the "Kintzler isn't a closer" thing. With the Twins, he has entered the game with a one run lead in a save situation just ten times in the past two seasons (this was a quick scan of box scores so if I missed something, let me know). Eight of those times, the Twins left the game a winner. That's an 80% conversion rate on the most difficult of saves. Can we really expect better from a closer? Overall, he has 27 saves and only four blown saves. Entering a clean inning and getting out of it shouldn't be that hard and Kintzler seems to have the mentality and makeup to do it. He keeps the ball on the ground. He doesn't give up home runs. He doesn't walk a bunch of guys. Leave Kintzler in the ninth. Find guys for innings 6-8 who are better, guys who need to enter a game with runners on base in a critical situation. Kintzler is acceptable in his role. If the Twins had four excellent relievers, sure, move Kintzler out of the closer role but the Twins don't have four excellent relievers and it's highly unlikely they'll ever have that many good relievers out of the bullpen in 2017.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Ouch. My entire portfolio was hammered today, losing nearly 3%.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh, I brought up this point last offseason several times. Infrastructure doesn't magically appear with a snap of the fingers. Analysis needs to be done on need, software needs to be purchased/created, hardware needs to be bought and integrated into the network, and then people need to be trained how to use it and/or get up to speed with the best ways to use it. And then you need to go hire more people to actually generate and distribute the information you want. All of this takes time. Quite a bit of time. Falvey might feel the Twins are 80% of the way there today. He might feel the Twins are 20% of the way there today. Neither answer would surprise me in the least.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    It's possible he's still in that range and his BABIP is unsustainably high but there's more going on with Gordon than just getting hits. His walks are back up to an acceptable level (9.3%) but his K rate has held close to steady (19.8%, up a couple of points over last season). But the real difference is the power. Now, he's coming out of the FSL so we should expect a power surge but Gordon's ISO has jumped from .095 to .185 at the same time he made a significant jump in talent level, as he's now playing in AA at just 21 years old. Last season, Gordon had 493 PAs with 23 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR. This season, Gordon has 162 PAs with 8 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR. He's on pace to add 50% to his XBH total and more of those XBH are going for 3+ bases. That's the kind of trend you expect and want to see with a lean 21 year old player. All he did was smack doubles last season. This season, more of those doubles are turning into triples or leaving the park. Time will tell whether this holds but there are reasons to be optimistic.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know why Burdi isn't in Rochester but I totally get why he's not in Minnesota. He's still under 15 IP after not really pitching last year. If the front office's plan is to move him directly from Chattanooga to Minnesota relatively soon, I won't have any complaints. If they keep him in Chattanooga for another two weeks then promote him to Rochester for another 4-6 weeks, I won't be a fan of that idea.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Which is why I'd strongly consider promoting Burdi directly from AA.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    The fifth starter doesn't matter as much as the first. Teams regularly skip the fifth position so the guy in that slot doesn't pitch as often... and the fifth rotation spot is often a revolving door. If your best pitcher gets injured, your replacement automatically slides into the fifth spot. The fifth spot in a rotation is usually pretty fluid.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Based on the numbers, he looks like an extremely rounded hitter. I always thought that would be the case with Gordon, but I thought he'd be a .750-.775 rounded hitter, not an .850 rounded hitter.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Is Gordon turning into an elite prospect? We're up to 158 PAs of .850 OPS baseball and he's always been considered a polished defender at short. I always considered Gordon something of a high floor, low ceiling guy relative to his draft position but I'm starting to think I was wrong in the good way. Including a truncated first month after the draft, Gordon has four months of .800+ OPS baseball in his professional career. Provided he doesn't completely collapse in the next two weeks, two of those months are April and May of 2017.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm banking the wins as well but they're only four games over .500. That can be wiped away with one long series where the pitching tanks. I don't think they'll drop to 75 unless the pitching staff implodes, just as I don't think they'll rise to 85 unless it stabilizes. Santana should be good, Santiago should be decent, and that 3-4 game swing from .500 rides mostly on Berrios, IMO.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm still cautious and haven't moved them from between 75 and 85 wins. So much rides on the arm of Berrios. He could be worth five wins by himself because the options behind him are that bad. And Mejia/Gibson are worth nearly that much as well. Those three guys will likely decide whether this is a winning or losing season (injuries excepted). I think the bullpen will manage to hold its own. Maybe a bit below average but I expect something to be done about it in relatively short order. Whether that's Burdi, Melotakis, trade, whatever, I don't know.
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