Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    32,400

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    328

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I can't speak for the rest of the board but I'm getting tired from all this winning.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    If managers use that book on this team, I think they'll get burned and change that plan in a hurry. Kepler doesn't swing at everything and will likely swing at less going forward (career .074 isoD). Sano doesn't swing at everything, he just misses a lot when he does swing (career .098 isoD). I think people continually underrate Polanco's patience and I expect him to be one of the pleasant surprises of the season (career .059 isoD). Dozier certainly isn't afraid to take a pitch (.074 isoD). Castro has always been a relatively patient hitter. It's one of his few offensive pluses (.078 isoD). When you get down to it, two guys in the everyday lineup have bad discipline (Buxton and Rosario). And I expect Rosario to take a small step forward in that regard, though he'll never be patient. As for Buxton, he's a complete wildcard. I have no idea what to expect from the guy. Overall, this lineup is pretty patient across the board.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll take the over on a .663 OPS for Max. I think he'll struggle through periods of the season but I'm pretty bullish on the kid. I don't know if I'd predict a .770 OPS for him but he's certainly capable of it... if I had a gun to my head, I'd probably put him in the .720-.740 range. A few months of dominant hitting (.800+ OPS) mixed in with some abysmal .600 OPS months as pitchers adjust and take the advantage. I suspect Max will suffer early in the season as opposing managers stack LHP against him, especially if he stays near the top of the lineup.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, I was all in favor of starting him at the bottom and forcing him to work his way up the lineup. I hope he succeeds in the three spot but the first two games are a good example of why I didn't want him at the top of the lineup in the first place. But this entire lineup is so whacky that I don't know if I'd be hitting anyone where Molitor has put them.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't understand the Opening Day lineup at all but it amused the hell out of me because it was so absurd. And it ended in a lopsided win for the Twins. With a righty coming up in today's game, I'm pulling for an equally absurd but completely different lineup because confusion is sometimes delightfully fun.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    If Buxton has a .400 OBP this season, I'll eat my hat. There are situations where you simply want to get on base and Buxton should be able to steal second almost on command. And bunting for a hit 40% of the time is not an unreasonable number. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/10/3748738/best-bunter-all-time-career-bunt-hits-bases-empty-mlb Bill James agrees. If you put a bunt down the third base line, the expected batting average is over .700. http://www.billjamesonline.com/bunting_for_a_hit/
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, that's why hitters with Buxton's speed don't bunt for a hit at a 1.000 clip. But if they can do it 40% of the time, that's a good weapon to have in an arsenal.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's hard to predict the need/wants of the deadline this far in advance. Here's one scenario: The Twins are five games back. Polanco can't handle short but can hit. Dozier is sitting at 17 homers and .790 OPS. Mejia is struggling, Berrios is meh, Hughes is out for the season or in the pen, and Santana is chugging along with a 3.80 ERA. That's a pretty clear situation where you trade Dozier and strongly consider keeping Santana. And you can run a dozen different scenarios of that type and make a different decision every time.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins are five games out of the Central and three games out of the WC, I don't see them trading players. And I'm not sure how I feel about that. Lots of variables to consider at that point. I could see a scenario where it makes sense to trade one of Dozier and Santana but maybe not both. It really depends on the rest of the roster.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing is that using a linear arc, a 75 win season means they're a fringe contender at the deadline, probably within a few games of .500. If the Twins sell in that situation, I'm okay with that... but I'm going to hope for better because it's in the best long-term interest of this team to win baseball games. It's also possible the Twins are awful in the first half and decent in the second half but I'm not going to hope for bad-then-good. That seems like a bit too much to ask.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    They have the first pick in this year's draft. They can move Dozier and not be impacted at the level they'll be impacted by losing Santana. There is literally one rookie on this team. We're past the point of collecting prospects for the future and hoping for high draft picks. This team needs to start winning baseball games or it's unlikely they'll ever win baseball games with this core. If the Twins are out of it and trade Santana, that's the right move... but I refuse to hope they lose baseball games because it means their young core stalled out for the third consecutive season. If Sano and Buxton stumble again, it's unlikely they'll ever be above average players. These aren't guys with 200 MLB PAs to their name anymore. Sano has 800 MLB PAs. This is the point where they either start performing or it's unlikely they'll ever perform at the MLB level. Buxton has a bit more flexibility in both age and experience but he'll finish this season with around 1100 MLB PAs if he stays healthy.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Nah, I strongly hope for the former: 1. I like watching a winning team 2. If the Twins are in the race, that means they're getting solid contributions from their core of young players If the Twins get all the way to the break hovering around .500, it means a good portion of Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, Mejia, and Berrios are having acceptable or better seasons.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    If Santana is able to put together another good season, that puts the Twins in a good position going into the break. Either he helps them win ballgames and hang in the race or the Twins have a *very* nice trade piece at the deadline.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed, but he made *so many* horrible plays last season - balls hit right at him that he missed - that I struggle to understand how the metrics would have missed them in previous seasons if his glove is truly made of lead.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Better Off Dead. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdF_Vo4B6Ms
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    He was terrible last season, no one is denying that... But he wasn't terrible in previous seasons, at least according to the metrics. That leaves us two options: 1. Something went disastrously wrong with Grossman in 2016 and it's possible that something can be fixed 2. The metrics were either wrong or didn't have enough sample size to accurately evaluate him Either is possible.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I'm surprised he's there against a lefty. Against a righty, I can see the logic. Oh well, it'll be interesting to watch.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Mauer batting cleanup today. As absurd as it sounds, what the hell. Run with it. I'm amused.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, like I have one of those things laying around the house. Seriously, though... I don't have a radio in the house.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I refuse to attribute the flaws of the old front office to the new front office, even if the early results look similar. It's Opening Day after a single offseason where the front office was put into a rather uncomfortable situation (and entered the situation far later than anyone would have liked, I'm sure). If I see the old problems pop up in June and July, then I will become concerned. We're four months into a regime that needs at least three years to evaluate. I will give them a bit more leash before jumping off the bandwagon. None of this means I agree with or like some of their decisions but so far, I haven't seen any deal-breaker moves/non-moves.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair. I think the 113 PAs with two triples is more a byproduct of luck than anything. Buxton hit nine homers during that span and that's unlikely to continue. A bunch of those homers will likely fall short of the wall, turning into opportunities for triples. I don't know if power will have that much effect on Buxton's triples ability. Though he played in cavernous Comerica and batted left-handed, Granderson had plenty of power himself. I guess it really boils down to how pull-happy Buxton will be this season. If he turns into Brian Dozier in that regard, he's going to see his triples total suffer as a result.* *if Byron is a better hitter as a pull guy, that's fine
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I have to figure out a way to listen to the game on the radio. Damn you, T-Mobile! I love you for giving me MLB.tv for free again but hate you for doing it the day after Opening Day!
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Finally, a game that matters.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know if I'm overrating him but if he can do two things, I want him on the roster: 1. OPS against lefties at a .750 or higher clip, subbing for either Kepler or Rosario on a regular basis 2. Play acceptable defense, something he was able to do until last season according to advanced metrics (lots of SSS here) His career OPS against lefties is .776, which was obviously helped by last season. In 2014/15, he was bad against LHP. In 2013, he was good. SSS for all seasons when you get down to it. Anyway, my thinking is that Grossman doesn't have to be good to help this team, he only needs to fill in for other players' weaknesses and be acceptable in the role. Time will tell whether he can live up to that relatively low standard.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Surprisingly low on Grossman and Vargas. Not that you're wrong, just a bit surprised.
×
×
  • Create New...