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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this is spot-on. Could the Twins have gotten something for Willingham? Sure. But what was on the table? When Willingham peaked, there were loads of questions about his expected performance going forward. On top of that, look at what has happened to bat-first players over the past half decade. They're signing deals that are far lower than what they received in previous years. The game has moved away from valuing them at the level they were once valued. Look at Edwin Encarnacion. The guy gets MVP votes almost every season, routinely posts a .900 OPS, and signed a 3/$60m deal this offseason. Kendrys Morales signed for just 3/$33m and the Blue Jays probably have some buyer's remorse over that deal after seeing what Encarnacion fetched on the market.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    That looks about right to me, though I'd shift Detroit down a notch. But I do that every year and I'm always wrong about it so there you go. Cleveland: 90+ wins Detroit: 78-82 wins Kansas City: 76-80 wins Minnesota: 71-75 wins Chicago: 70-74 wins This division is bad but not terrible. I expect them to take a fair amount of their licks from the rest of the league, driving the entire division's win total (non-Cleveland edition) down a bit.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd run with Polanco but that's just my opinion. I can see a few reasons to go with Mauer or Grossman or whatever. But I think it's folly to put a 40 home run guy in the leadoff spot where he's guaranteed to spend 20-25% of his plate appearances with no one on base. Given an equal distribution of home runs, that means Dozier will hit 3-4 home runs without anyone on base where, if he was hitting further down the lineup, men would be on base in those situations. That one move alone will cost the team between three and ten runs over the course of a season.* *predicated on the idea Dozier is a 40 homer guy, shift the numbers accordingly if you think he's a 30 homer guy
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The White Sox definitely had a fire sale but that doesn't mean they traded every player of value on their roster. Both ideas can exist simultaneously. And besides, it's bloody hard to move ten guys in a single offseason. The White Sox moved their most valuable assets and got a crapton in return for them. I suspect there's a better than even chance we'll see some of those other guys go on the block in the next eleven months.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    In 183 career PAs and a career-best .885 OPS from the cleanup spot, he sure looks "comfortable" in that role to me. I'm not saying Brian Dozier's opinion should be ignored. What I'm saying is part of the manager's role is to explain to players that sometimes superstition is just that, superstition. Paul Molitor shouldn't be acquiescing to Dozier's desire to bat leadoff immediately, he should be lobbying Dozier that the best way to help the team is from the middle of the order and statistically, Brian has been slightly better in the cleanup spot than leadoff. It's important to keep players happy and give their opinion weight. It's also important to point out when they're wrong and/or just being silly about something, especially when that something negatively impacts the team. If a manager can't perform that task, why is he there at all?
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I wish managers would show a little more proactive thinking in these situations. Brian Dozier: "I like hitting leadoff, I do better in that role." Paul Molitor: "Brian, here are your stats from last season. Notice how you hit better in the cleanup spot, posting an elite .950 OPS. So how about we put you where it helps the team score the most runs instead?" In no way am I suggesting Dozier is better in the cleanup spot because he hits better there. I would make that statement solely to show Dozier that his perspective is skewed, not that I believe he would do better or worse in any given spot in the lineup. The guy is a classic middle of the order bat. The team will score fewer runs with him in the leadoff spot and that's all that should matter.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe but I don't think it's terribly relevant. This is Dozier's career thus far: 2013: 100 OPS point advantage to Men on Base 2014: No advantage for either Men on Base or Bases Empty 2015: 50 OPS point advantage to Men on Base 2016: 150 OPS point advantage to Bases Empty There's no trend there. Like most players, it's just kinda scattershot and all over the place because that tends to happen to players when viewing splits year-by-year. The relatively SSS causes a lot of fluctuation.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it should read: "Batting Grossman first is Gross, man."
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Not really. His career splits: Bases Empty: .747 OPS Men on Base: .772 OPS He only has the relatively small discrepancy because of his ridiculous 2016 splits: Bases Empty: .950 Men on Base: .792 In 2013, Dozier hit much better with men on base than he did with the bases empty. The same goes for 2015. In 2014, he was nearly identical in bases empty vs. men on base situations. So, yeah, one season.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    At the very least it's encouraging to hear we'll see different lineups to counter lefty/righty splits.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't mean to imply that at all. Berrios made a decision and it hindered his ability to compete in Spring Training. There's nothing wrong with that, as I commend the guy for wanting to pitch for his country... but given the roster competition from the Twins perspective, he kind of took himself out of the running for an Opening Day position.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    As much as I hate to see Berrios optioned, this was the right decision. Mejia and Duffey have been in camp competing for a job. Berrios spent the past few weeks mostly sitting on WBC pine. I don't fault Jose for the decision but it should knock him down a peg in the pecking order.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's hard to predict what will happen in a few innings' time but there are a few things a manager can do to create a more flexible bullpen. For example, it's the sixth inning of a tie game. The bases are loaded with no outs. Call in your best reliever. Just do it. And teach your relievers that those situations will occasionally arise. They're the "eighth inning guy" 90% of the time but when an obviously critical situation arises earlier in the game, they should be ready to get the team out of the jam. Far too often we've seen that kind of sixth inning situation pitched by the "sixth inning guy", which makes zero sense. Deal with the later disaster situations when they arise, if they arise at all. Use your best guys earlier in the game when it makes sense. The manager doesn't need to do that often but there's some wiggle room in there I'd like to see explored more often; the "obviously critical" points of a game we all see unfold once every couple of weeks.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Buxton should definitely bunt... if defenses give him the bunt for a base hit. That applies to almost everyone in baseball. A player should rarely step to the plate with a bunt in mind, though.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    When he played for the Angels, there was no discernible difference in Santiago's HR allowed at home versus on the road. That angle doesn't really hold up under scrutiny.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Dunno about "stellar". The guy tracked through the minors at roughly the league average age while posting 3.6/7.8 BB/K rates. We all love to bash Tonkin and, by comparison, he tracked through the minors 1.5-2.0 years younger than league average age while posting 2.2/9.3 BB/K rates.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Under these rules, Pedro had 17 changeups alone. I'm not taking a dig at Duffey here (well, not really) and I realize his fastballs and curves are different offerings... But the guy could use a changeup or slider in a big way. The curves are great and all but having something with bite that complements the fastball would go a long way. Having two fastballs and two curves is not the same as having a fastball, slider, change, and curve.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    What a waste of Duffey. I hope they don't make him the long man. Sure, maybe it means he gets another shot at the rotation down the road but I'd prefer to see what he can do in a real bullpen role, not mop-up duties.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    From what I've seen, consistency is his biggest weakness, which may or may not be considered a "skill" in the traditional sense John was speaking. Polanco has the tools to play short - they're marginal but he could probably do it - but there's more to being an MLB shortstop than pure athleticism. One needs an outstanding toolset (which Polanco doesn't have) to overcome any deficiency in consistency. And that's not a rare problem to have, it keeps loads of toolsy guys off short in MLB.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Santiago also had acceptable results with the White Sox. I'm not arguing whether Santiago is a good pitcher, only that he's not terribly different than Gibson. And, yes, Santiago is a flyball guy, which is a good thing on the 2017 Twins. Gibson has a lackluster infield defense behind him and also has the disadvantage of the low strike being removed this season. I'm not sure why it's so controversial to suggest that neither Gibson nor Santiago are particularly good pitchers and are largely interchangeable. edit: did the strike zone change actually happen or was it only proposed?
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    You just illustrated why I have huge problems with fWAR for pitchers. If a guy "gets lucky" for four consecutive seasons and two different teams, it becomes pretty hard to argue it's "luck" with a straight face. FIP-based metrics have a place and they're accurate for most players but we need to admit they're flat-out broken for others (e.g. Nolasco, Ricky).
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm curious why people are willing to give Gibson a guaranteed spot in the rotation but think Santiago should be removed. I think Gibson has a slightly higher chance of being above average but when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Santiago have a better season (as low as that bar may be for both of them). They're basically the same age and Santiago has a longer, better track record.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Flip a coin for Berrios or Mejia, I don't care. It's the kind of decision I could defend if it goes either way. But never Vogelsong.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I view front line starters as championship pieces. Right now, I'm looking at "not terrible" pieces. I think this team would benefit more from two 4/$75m contracts than a single 7/$150m contract. Lots of bad players on this team. More could be gained from two 4 WAR players than one 7 WAR player who will likely fade to a 2-3 WAR player within a few seasons. And it's a lot less risky to sign those two good players than a single great player.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    No worries, fixed it for you. I wasn't trying to call you out or anything, I was legitimately curious. I thought I was right but wasn't sure.
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