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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, not discounting it at all. My initial expectation for Grossman going into the season was, like you, around a .750 OPS. All I'm saying is that I'm beginning to question that expectation. I'm still not sold on Grossman but I'm opening up to the idea that he's a lot better than I expected him to be.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    One could also argue the following: 1. Grossman's bat is slightly more valuable in LF than DH 2. The Twins have three centerfielders already on the roster 3. Grossman crushes LHP 4. All of those centerfielders have questionable, bad, or terrible bats against LHP If you play Grossman in a corner spot once a week against a lefty, is the 200 OPS points you gain with his bat offset by his decreased defensive ability? I honestly don't know the answer to that question but I suspect it's not clearcut either way... and the offensive flexibility it affords the Twins to replace Santana with Vargas is pretty hard to resist.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't rule it out entirely, no. And you're talking about a .750-.770 OPS and I'm talking about an .800 OPS. That's about 7-8 hits scattered over the course of a season, or about one extra hit every 20 games. Is that truly unreasonable? The fact is that neither you nor I have any idea where Grossman will land when it comes to BABIP because he doesn't have the track record one way or the other.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    It's definitely a question but I looked at Grossman's peripherals a bit more closely and it's entirely possible he's a .340-.350 BABIP guy. He puts few balls in the air, a decent amount are line drives, and quite a few are on the ground. That's going to lead to an abnormally high BABIP. Also fewer homers than he's probably capable of hitting but that's okay.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    His BABIP is maybe 20 points too high, 30 points tops. It's hardly the 60-80 points Santana and Colabello saw in their "breakout" seasons.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    If it was one season, I'd be more skeptical of it... But picking up a second half season and performing at the same level gives it a bit more weight, IMO. Guys get hot all the time and ride that streak for a couple of months. Picking up that hot streak six months later and doing it again seems more unlikely, IMO.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, pretty much my thoughts as well.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question: When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take? And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward. Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, it kinda seems everyone is right to me. Buxton is having huge problems right now. He's also played only a dozen games. If Buxton hadn't shown windmill tendencies in the past, I'd chalk this up to a horrific start and that's that. But this isn't new to Buxton. He's done this before. And we should be really concerned about it happening over and over again. On the flip side of that coin, he's begun to strike out less in recent games. He looks a bit more cohesive at the plate. If he keeps trending in that direction, he should begin to come around. And given how early it is in the season, if he has three consecutive good games, this problem fades from memory in a hurry.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, Buxton and Mauer have question marks but people are concerned about Rosario. Why? It's fine to show emotion and want players to succeed. What I find maddening is watching people who have been baseball fans for a decade or longer gnashing their teeth over a dozen games. What an exhausting way to live. Yes, I'm concerned about Buxton. I'm concerned about Mauer. I'm watching Rosario closely... but man, it's 14 games. If Rosario has two good games, he jumps above his career OPS. If Buxton or Mauer have two good games, their numbers are suddenly respectable. Baseball is a long, grueling season. I'll ride the ups and downs but I won't let them control me. I also won't wave the Hector Santiago flag loud and proud for the same reason. I'm glad he's off to a good start but he's still Hector-freakin-Santiago.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, sure, I didn't mean to conclude that Santiago is suddenly a #1 or even #2 pitcher, only that using FIP has never been an accurate measure of his value as a pitcher. He'll probably settle somewhere near his career numbers: a 4-ish ERA and close to a 5-ish FIP, give or take half a run. Or he could implode spectacularly. I don't have much faith in the guy. At any rate, right now he looks a lot more like the guy the Twins traded for than the guy who pitched for the team in the second half of 2016.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Some of Santiago's peripherals are concerning but he's another situation - an inverse Nolasco - where FIP is failing to account for something in the makeup of the player. Santiago's career FIP is one full run higher than his ERA in 733 innings across three different teams. At some point, we need to conclude that FIP just plain wrong about some players.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd keep him as a reliever and not think twice about it. If the rest of the rotation implodes and there are no acceptable options anywhere in the org, reconsider.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Started watching Shetland on Netflix. I'm two episodes in and absolutely love it. It's basically a Scottish Broadchurch.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    To the Scottish, Riverbairn would be something completely different and more than a little bit weird.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I never knew he was such a vehement enemy of our local waterways.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Sit down, prole, you're clogging my view of the game thread.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    It's so Kaufman-esque that I approve.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    How much is Mauer paid again? I forget.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    WHY DIDN'T I THINK OF THIS?
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, not that far off. Laying off 1-2 (unhittable) pitches per game can drastically change outcomes over the course of a season. It's the difference between a 2-1 and 1-2 count. It's the difference between seeing a hittable fifth pitch and sitting down. Over 150 games, just one pitch per game could theoretically change 150 outcomes. More likely is that it'd change 25-50 outcomes but that's the difference between a bad hitter and an acceptable hitter or an acceptable hitter and a good hitter. Removing the worst 150 strikes thrown to you over a season is a pretty big deal. Each hit over a full season is worth approximately .002 batting average. Changing just 25 outcomes and putting wood on the ball instead of missing the ball is worth around eight hits using a standard BABIP. Even if every one of those hits is a single, that adds .015 batting average to Rosario's line. That's .030 in OPS just from singles. Also remember that I'm not asking Rosario to be a disciplined hitter. I don't think that's in the realm of possibility. But given his talent, merely avoiding being a stupid hitter could pay big dividends.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    And, like magic, I upped the maximum number of likes.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm pretty sure that no player does that, as I believe you're confusing Ash Wednesday with Good Friday.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Rosario doesn't need good discipline, he simply needs not terrible discipline. He's always going to be a bad ball hitter than that's okay. What he needs to do is stop swinging at the 3-4% of completely unhittable pitches thrown his way.
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