Brock Beauchamp

Really? Yikes, bro. I had no idea.

If your baseline for success is some of the best hitters of the league, you and I have *very* different outlooks for Trevor Larnach. He's not only considerably below the level of Vlad Jr and the like, he's not even the best young hitter in the Twins organization. That would go to Kirilloff and it's not particularly close, at least that's my opinion. I don't recall seeing anyone say Larnach will be a success because Morneau was also bad but I have seen people - myself included - who don't write off the ceiling of a hitter based on fewer than 300 MLB plate appearances. While Larnach is physically older than other successful hitters, it's not his fault he lost an entire season to a pandemic. He has just 172 minor league games under his belt, barely over one season in total. Even an all-time college great like Teixeira had 93 MiLB games and he didn't face a pandemic in the middle of his development.

All sides have a right to their opinions but the difference is that we've invited Stu to share his without editorial oversight. The same cannot be said for user comments. If Squirrel has asked users not to go too deep into the coronavirus weeds over a tongue-in-cheek editorial piece, that request needs to be respected. Squirrel is a representative of Twins Daily and is following owner policy.

No, it doesn't. The first amendment is protection from the government restricting individual speech, not a private organization telling an employee/contractor "you're a pain in the ass and bad at your job, now get lost".

Oh sure. I personally don't believe refusing the vaccine is enough on its own, at least in the case of Simmons where actual danger to other humans is moderate at most, but it can certainly factor into a larger decision of whether he's worth the effort at this point. I'd argue he's not, mostly for on-field reasons, but him being a significant part of the April Torpedoing Of The Season would also factor into my decision. If I was in this front office, I would have spent the afternoon of July 30th calling other teams literally saying "you can have Andrelton Simmons for $1m and nothing else" in part because of his anti-vax nonsense.

Well, there comes a point where headaches no longer become worth it. Simmons, with his anti-vax stance, sidelined a significant portion of the team when the Twins were still in contention for the season. The wheels completely came off after that point and Simmons has been a terrible baseball player as it unraveled. There's nothing wrong with letting "you're a pain in the ass and have been a negative influence on the team and season" factor into the decision whether to release a bad baseball player. This front office prioritizes character and frankly, benching a portion of the roster because a player doesn't believe in science and other things way above his pay grade to the detriment of the rest of the team is a slight on his character. But for the record, I'd be very wary of firing someone ONLY for refusing the vaccine.

Not really sure how you got that from this: But okay, you do you.

Just the anti-vax stance? No, probably not. But it just so happens that Andrelton Simmons is also really bad at baseball right now, which makes the decision much easier.

Agreed on all counts. It's an interesting avenue to explore, one I don't see discussed very often (but I only heard about the arm strength/repetition issue a few months ago so maybe it's a new-ish thing).

While I don't *hate* the modern game, surprisingly enough it was Covid that soured me on many aspects of it, first and foremost pace of play. When there was no baseball last spring and early summer, I ended up spending a fair amount of time watching old games on YouTube. While there's A LOT to dislike about the strategy (or lack thereof) in the old version of baseball, seeing the pitcher wind up every 15 seconds and the hitter put the ball in play over 80% of the time was a revelation. But mostly it's seeing the pitcher wind up every 15 seconds. Just having action - literally ANY ACTION - happen that quickly and regularly is so much more engaging than the modern game of watching the pitcher circle the mound three times like a dog lookin for a comfortable bed between pitches. A nice side effect of fixing this problem is that evidence is coming out to support that a pitcher cannot throw nearly as hard if he has to wind up and throw every 15-ish seconds. There's a decent chance the game doesn't have to alter the mound if pitchers have to get back on the mound and throw immediately.

While I thought they overly sanitized the event by building a full-blown stadium in the corn field, it was a lot of fun and held my attention FAR more than I expected. For one, I hope they make this a yearly event. It was good fun all around and a great showcase game.

Perhaps Stu’s best piece yet.

This is a really harsh take on a guy through his first 300 plate appearances. Some comparison to others around that point in their careers: Trevor Larnach: 293 PAs, 94 OPS+ Justin Morneau: 115 PAs, 73 OPS+ Michael Cuddyer: 257 PAs, 94 OPS+ Byron Buxton: 469 PAs, 80 OPS+

At this point it would not surprise me to see the Twins field an 88 win team any more than it would surprise me to see them field a 68 win team next season. The next four months will tell us where they expect to land on that spectrum and what is a reasonable expectation of the team in 2022.

IDK is the only reasonable answer right now. Who is traded? Who is signed? What is the payroll? Just keeping Buxton could be the difference between two wins if he's banged up again, maybe as many as eight if he magically stays healthy. Will he be on the roster? Do the Twins run with 1-2 middling veterans in the rotation and backfill with rookies or do they sign one impact arm and a middling veteran? There are another 2-3 wins right there. Do the Twins trade Donaldson? Likely another couple of losses there. Do the Twins run out their current bullpen again? There's likely -23 wins, at minimum.

A hitting-obsessed lefty with near daily access to Justin Morneau convinces me he'll be just fine in the long run. And probably a lot better than fine.

Heh, I suspected you were thinking of Sabato but wasn't sure.

Methinks you might be reading the wrong name in this thread title and may want to look again.

I'm not concerned about it. Both his OPS+ and wRC+ are 94 overall in just under 300 plate appearances as a 24 year old. His K rate is a mildly alarming 34% but we all knew that would be a problem going in and it's also just part of today's game. Inversely, his BB rate is 10% so he's doing quite well on that front. Lately, it appears he's been going inside-out more often, almost surely to the detriment of power. In the short-term as an adjustment to how pitchers are pitching him, that's an encouraging sign that he has the ability to diversify and not be trapped into a single hitting style that leads to prolonged slumps and inescapable holes in his swing (Miguel Sano, anyone?). He doesn't even have half a full season under his belt yet, the ride is bound to be a little bumpy for awhile. His splits per month: Months Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ May 20 17 72 57 8 13 4 0 3 7 0 0 12 19 .228 .389 .456 .845 26 0 3 0 0 0 1 .286 145 138 June 23 21 92 82 11 21 4 0 2 6 0 0 6 28 .256 .326 .378 .704 31 2 3 0 1 0 0 .358 104 93 July 26 22 103 94 8 18 1 0 2 10 1 0 7 43 .191 .252 .266 .518 25 1 1 0 1 0 0 .320 51 42 August 8 7 26 20 2 6 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 10 .300 .462 .450 .912 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 .600 166 157 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 8/12/2021.

Holy ****, how did I never notice that before? I knew Joe did well in certain situations but a tOPS+ of 129... wow...

I don't know if I've posted this "fun with numbers" before but in case I haven't, it's something I stumbled across a couple of years ago, checking to see if my memory was selective or if the Twins have truly been this horrifying. Yes, they've been this horrifying. The Twins have an 18 game postseason losing streak, right? They scored first in 12 of those games. That's 67% of the postseason games they lost. I'm just going to lock this thread now. It can't get worse than this.

BTW, Tony Gwynn was indeed clutch. 116 tOPS+ with 2 out, RISP which is insane for a guy who had a career 132 OPS+. To be 16% better in that situation over a career is bonkers. Clutch Stats I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ 2 outs, RISP 823 974 795 465 255 49 9 16 311 56 3 176 41 .321 .446 .465 .911 370 0 3 0 0 104 10 .324 116 Late & Close 1305 1768 1551 250 547 82 10 28 234 71 21 184 88 .353 .418 .473 .890 733 42 2 13 18 87 31 .357 111 Tie Game 2069 3546 3189 381 1041 192 29 48 349 109 46 297 156 .326 .381 .450 .831 1435 101 4 24 32 92 55 .329 96 Within 1 R 2269 5938 5397 748 1781 310 47 80 588 204 93 444 272 .330 .379 .449 .828 2425 151 13 35 49 131 81 .334 96 Within 2 R 2358 7606 6910 1007 2320 406 65 106 816 252 111 573 332 .336 .385 .459 .844 3174 188 16 42 65 159 102 .339 99 Within 3 R 2391 8634 7827 1150 2637 472 73 119 953 283 117 672 375 .337 .387 .461 .849 3612 211 17 44 74 185 111 .340 100 Within 4 R 2410 9272 8412 1246 2824 494 79 128 1022 304 122 718 400 .336 .386 .459 .845 3860 232 20 45 77 195 121 .339 99 Margin > 4 R 599 960 876 137 317 49 6 7 116 15 3 72 34 .362 .409 .455 .865 399 27 4 0 8 8 18 .368 105 Ahead 1351 3086 2754 565 946 165 28 36 396 108 54 284 115 .344 .403 .463 .866 1275 60 10 11 27 100 38 .346 105 Behind 1548 3600 3345 437 1154 186 28 51 393 102 25 209 163 .345 .382 .463 .846 1549 98 10 10 26 11 46 .349 99 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 8/11/2021.

I was hoping I'd never have to post this damned chart again now that Rosario is almost a season removed from this team but I guess it needs to be posted one more time. "Eddie Rosario is clutch" is mostly a made-up narrative just like the other "player x is clutch" statements of the past 50 years. True clutchness over a long career is exceptionally rare. IIRC, Tony Gwynn is one of the only examples of it actually happening, though I'd have to look that up to confirm. Clutch Stats I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ 2 outs, RISP 277 335 309 113 76 14 2 11 105 10 2 25 61 .246 .304 .411 .715 127 0 1 0 0 9 3 .274 86 Late & Close 352 481 443 70 123 28 5 17 78 9 2 26 98 .278 .317 .479 .796 212 8 1 8 3 6 1 .320 105 Tie Game 514 802 757 86 201 44 3 29 114 11 6 33 150 .266 .294 .446 .741 338 10 1 3 8 4 5 .294 90 Within 1 R 691 1595 1495 217 412 82 12 66 238 25 13 77 301 .276 .309 .479 .788 716 18 1 10 12 8 11 .304 102 Within 2 R 741 2113 1976 290 551 107 18 83 302 35 14 103 389 .279 .312 .477 .789 943 27 2 12 20 11 12 .307 103 Within 3 R 751 2454 2299 335 621 123 19 93 337 39 18 120 469 .270 .304 .462 .766 1061 30 2 12 21 12 14 .300 97 Within 4 R 758 2695 2521 367 685 132 21 102 367 46 21 137 506 .272 .307 .462 .769 1165 34 2 12 23 15 15 .301 98 Margin > 4 R 245 441 423 62 125 17 2 24 67 2 1 13 80 .296 .315 .515 .831 218 5 1 0 4 0 3 .313 112 Ahead 484 1231 1152 186 330 59 13 50 193 23 13 63 199 .286 .321 .490 .811 565 17 1 3 12 8 10 .306 108 Behind 475 1103 1035 157 279 46 7 47 127 14 3 54 237 .270 .304 .464 .768 480 12 1 6 7 3 3 .306 97 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 8/11/2021.

5-2 stretch against the Astros and White Sox, just as everyone predicted.

Okay, I'll bite. Who, if any, do you see having the biggest impact as pitcher in Minnesota for the remainder of the season?