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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Nick's quote was "elite power-hitting middle infielder", IIRC. That's an accurate description of Dozier. The power-hitting qualifier is the elite part of Dozier's game.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the only outright bust from that group was Worley but May came along in the deal so it was still pretty reasonable. Capps was a dumb trade but Matt Capps was exactly who we expected him to be in 2010. Worley was a bust. May for Revere straight-up may end up being a fair swap. Meyer was buggered by the front office. He was a risk and maybe not a smart risk but the front office and coaching staff did that guy absolutely zero favors in the way they managed him.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    But that's not what was said. There's a significant gap between "in the playoffs" and "in the playoff hunt". It's the difference between as many as 5-7 wins on the season. An 83 win team is often "in the hunt" until early to mid September. The 2015 Twins were in the hunt until the last series of the season and ended up with 83 wins.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    No, definitely not... But I'm not sure 20% is that far off the mark. Think about it this way: is it unreasonable that if you ran five simulations with this team, one of out five times they end up over 80 wins? Given the explosive talent of Berrios, Buxton, and Sano with the interesting talent of Polanco, Rosario, Kepler, etc., a one in five chance of hanging in the WC picture isn't absurd. But you don't plan on the one out of five chance. You plan on the four out of five chance.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, he didn't gain anything from Target Field, I was more concerned with how his bat plays in Dodger Stadium, which is big pretty much everywhere. But it's been years since I was at Dodger Stadium and don't remember the typical wind patterns of the stadium.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    True, I guess PETCO is offset by those stadiums and I don't recall AT&T being that brutal on righties compared to lefties (but I'm drawing from hazy recollection here).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I wonder how much this offer is effected by Friedman's concern over how Dozier's bat will play in the cavernous Chavez Ravine (and the tough NL West stadiums in general). At first glance, this deal seems like a no-brainer. The Dodgers need a bat to level the field with the Cubs and, while they're an impressive organization, there has to be some concern over whether their window will begin to close after the 2018 season when Kershaw can opt out of his contract. It doesn't appear the Twins are asking for the sun and moon. De Leon is a good, not great, prospect and the Dodgers are rather loaded with arms.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Previous seasons of Sherlock have been three episodes apiece. I don't know if this season follows that formula but I suspect it does.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I also finally got around to Westworld today. Through three episodes and yeah, this show is pretty much amazeballs so far.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The numbers were only meant to illustrate a comparative point, not project any real performance.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I clearly think the Twins should care what people think? I explained my point clearly. Stop assuming you know what I think.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't change the subject, you interpreted my point to suit your purposes. Okay, but if you want to argue "player valuation", here goes: 10 WAR over six seasons is worth FAR less than 10 WAR over two seasons. One of those players is borderline elite, the other is a below average starting player. Comparing combined WAR over contract length overvalues mediocrity and undervalues good players. And that's not including the risk involved with any prospect versus the lack of risk of an established player.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Where did I say the Twins should care what the media thinks? You're the one arguing that De Leon is fair value for Dozier. My point is that few, if any, professional journalists would agree with you.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, then I'll put it in simple terms: If the Twins traded Dozier for De Leon, they would be universally criticized by baseball analysts and media outlets. That's a clear indication the two are not of equal value.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    But that's not really how this works. Dozier is a known commodity while De Leon has risk. Sure, it's likely De Leon ends up with a higher WAR over the next six years compared to Dozier's two years but it's also possible De Leon ends up with 0 WAR while it's highly unlikely Dozier posts no value over the next two seasons. The two aren't equal because of that risk.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    More tickets will go on sale shortly.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm inclined to agree, my contention was more with the certainty of Platoon's post than the thinking behind it. And while it's likely Dozier's value drops the moment Opening Day hits, if he's truly a 6 WAR player now, it's possible his value will remain high in June. We tend to view Dozier's 2016 as an aberration - which it likely is - but if he goes on another tear to open 2017, teams will likely view him as a legit 5-6 WAR player, not a legit 3-4 WAR player. So, in a perfect scenario, a legit 5-6 WAR Dozier coupled with a desperate team at the deadline may net the Twins similar value. Again, not a risk I'd take willingly but it's a possibility.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    While I agree it's highly unlikely Dozier will be more valuable in June than he is today, it's not a foregone conclusion. Teams at the deadline are sometimes desperate for talent. It's a longshot - one I wouldn't take willingly - but it's not certain what Dozier will bring at the deadline.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Very true but that may put even more pressure on the Dodgers in the short term. An emergent Urias along with Kershaw make Dozier even more appealing for two years.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    They're not. Maybe they're not quite as rabid as east coast fans but SoCal fans are not particularly forgiving, particularly when it comes to the Dodgers (which is LA's "first team", the Angels get a bit more slack).
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    No, they don't, but the clock is ticking. Clayton Kershaw is entering his age 29 season. After the conclusion of his age 30 season, he can opt out of his contract. It's possible for the Dodgers to win without Kershaw but 8 WAR pitchers don't grow on trees and they don't remain 8 WAR pitchers indefinitely, even if you can keep them.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not so sure of that. Baseball runs on a schedule and teams have to prepare for that schedule whether they plan to contend or not. If two teams can't come to terms on something in six weeks, it's likely they will never come to terms on the matter. Drawing a soft line in the sand may not be a bad strategy. It's not like the Twins are saying "Give me an offer right now or all deals are off the table."
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    This sounds good in practice but having been married to a lawyer for several years, I have come to understand only one thing about law: It's incredibly complex and outside our ability as laymen to understand its nuances and those nuances are in place for very good reasons most of the time. According to my wife, if the U of M is using either administrative or contract law to expel these students, it's probably well within their right to do so. There are multiple courts and they often have overlapping jurisdiction. Just because the criminal courts failed to meet the threshold of an indictment does not exclude other, less rigorous, courts from pursuing the matter outside the criminal justice system. As Craig pointed out, this could quite easily be a twist on the OJ case, though without the financial aspect of civil court. While the criminal courts didn't meet their (most) exacting measurements to proceed, other courts/agencies can step in and deliver verdicts using their own laws/rules.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing is, that's not how it works legally (if my wife is correct and, in fact, the U of M is granted rights under administrative law, something she did not have time to research this morning during our conversation). They're separate forms of law. The severity of the situation, to my knowledge, has no bearing on the rights of either court to enact judgment, the same way it works in civil and criminal suits. Two different courts, two different forms of law.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, different courts have different thresholds of guilt/liability. My wife said the U's actions likely fall under administrative law, which is separate from criminal law. It's technically part of civil law but is handled differently with its own set of laws and courts. My wife said administrative law is incredibly complex but here's what I was able to glean from it: Think of the U of M like you do the Department of Health Services, as an agency with its own rights to both issue and revoke, say, licenses for day care centers. If a day care center violates the rules set in place by the DHS, they will revoke the day care center's license and levy fines against the center. None of this operates under either criminal or "normal" civil courts. Basically, my understanding is that administrative law is set up for agencies to operate somewhat independently of the traditional court system for speed and efficiency. My wife suspects the U falls under this situation, as the students are trying to move the cast into district (traditional) court.
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