Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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One. Whatever happened before November of 2016 should be irrelevant to this front office. We may feel differently as fans but they need to build their team, not placate a fanbase with moves they don't believe are the best decisions to make right now.
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That's why I view 2017 as an evaluation season. Run through the roster, find out what you have, discard what isn't good, trade at the deadline, and prepare to actually build a team in 2018. There's young talent on this team, now we need to figure out what is MLB talent and what needs to go away. If the team somehow pleasantly surprises in 2017, well, that's nice. It doesn't really change my view of the season unless the Twins are miles better than anyone expects.
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For the record, when I said that comment about people saying "why didn't they just keep TR?", I didn't have you in mind. I was thinking of someone else. Until you responded to that post, I wasn't even aware you ever said such a thing.
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Because there's a lot more to running a baseball team than trades and free agents in one offseason? Analytics, scouting, coaching, development, medical, assembling a roster, promotions/demotions... The list is a mile long.
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Over the past few weeks, I've seen at least a dozen people call this offseason a failure, make comments such as "why'd they even fire Terry Ryan?", and find other ways to slam the new front office.
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Sure, even I admit I'm a little disappointed. But I try not to let that cloud my judgment of the front office and conflate "I'm disappointed" with "they failed".
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Nailed it. It's okay to be a bit disappointed that the front office hasn't been more active. Motion creates a sense of accomplishment. But sometimes, that accomplishment turns sour once players take the field. I'm a bit disappointed in the lack of action - mainly surrounding Dozier - but I'm willing to give the front office more than three months before declaring they've somehow failed at their jobs. Lots of moving pieces, lots of background work and analysis we don't see, and lots of future plans we don't know about. What the front office does from April-September is far more important that what they've done (or haven't done) from November-January.
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Hey, it's not like anyone listened to me when I screamed "Buy Facebook and T-Mobile!" Or when I hung in there with Netflix.
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Not even close to betting the farm on them. I have right around $2k into them and my initial $1k investment was bought around $10/share so I'm already up quite a bit on that investment. I don't think they'll be a huge growth stock but they have the potential to become a fixture in the small business market. Not only are their point of sale systems better than most of the competition, their lending programs are pretty great. If Square ever decides to move in this direction, they could decimate the restaurant business with a few software updates. I've set up traditional POS systems in restaurants. It's absurd what they cost to install, how outdated the hardware is out of the box, and how unnecessarily complex all of it is. A $15k restaurant system could be replaced with $5k of hardware and Square. All Square needs to do is change how they control communication between devices and add more complex printing options, really.
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Well, I'm glad I waited out Apple. Their shares jumped over 6% after yesterday's report and I just sold half my shares (35). Reinvested the money into AT&T (dividends, mainly), Microsoft (modest dividend and more growth than Apple, IMO), and Square (wanted to aim for a riskier growth stock with the remaining money).
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This was, in my opinion, our best event yet. Not only was the crowd huge (with lots of local writers and journalists in the mix, thanks for making an appearance) but Jack Goin was a fantastic guest and LaTroy killed it up there. It was the perfect mix of guests, in my opinion. Goin gave us statheads analytic insight into the front office and LaTroy was hilarious with his on-field stories from his long career. His AJ Piersynski bit almost had me in tears. -
It's certainly a risk. Sano is entering his third season. But there are arms on the way: Stewart, Jay, Romero, Thorpe, Gonsalves. The problem is that most of them aren't terribly exciting arms.
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I'd love to hear your thoughts on keys to the city for local municipalities.
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Yeah, initially my wife wanted to look at a 30 year loan and after about five minutes on a calculator, I said "nopenopenope" and we decided to go with an affordable house on a 15 year loan. Not only does it mean I pay about 60% of the interest of a 30 year, we got a .75% lower rate than a 30 year fixed. We're five years into the loan and last year, interest consumed just 17% of our payments. The other 83% went straight to principal (excluding taxes from those numbers, of course).
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Oh, I understand all that, I was just pointing out the massive discrepancies in salary for the same person that exist in sports but few other professions. A top-of-the-class attorney may start out at $150k but it's not like they'll jump to $20m in a few years. My example of material cost was a bad one (was on my phone at the time). My general point is that sports don't have to be run exactly like a typical business because of the fluidity of sports. In typical business, there are few examples of a company saying "screw it, let's be really bad at our jobs for awhile!" or "I don't care what it costs, I want to beat the competition, even if we lose money doing it." No sports teams can run like that indefinitely but unlike many other businesses, they can take that attitude over the short- or even mid-term. If your industry allows you to occasionally be irrational with your allocation of funds, it makes sense to maximize that irrationality to achieve your goal more easily.
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But sports' labor expense isn't a typical labor expense. It's closer to a materials expense. In no other industry does a person go from a $500k expense to a $35m expense in 6-7 years. And in few other industries is the labor the actual product. Sports don't work in pure business terms. There's a lot of overlap but they're not the same.
- 132 replies
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- miguel sano
- ervin santana
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Oh, I realize that, but pro sports are something of an exception to pure business concerns, as they sometimes diminish the importance of profit or they view it differently. Put in different terms, a front-loaded contract could be considered more along the lines of R&D than traditional operating expense.
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I say it every year but I'd like to see a team push for a more front-loaded contract. Not entirely front-loaded, just a little more so than most contracts. Think of the difference it could make to the 2020-2022 Twins if you could give Sano or Buxton $6-8m more per year in 2017-2019 if it meant you got them for $20m a season instead of $25m-30m per season through their 2021-2023 campaigns. You're looking at around $15m extra per season, which will equate to a stop-gap starting player or a couple of decent bullpen pieces. And I have a hard time seeing either Buxton or Sano readily turn down making $9m next season instead of just $500k or $1m.
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I don't know if I'd be more eager to see a Kepler or Sano extension. Sano will likely be a more valuable player but I think Kepler could be had on the cheap. Buxton isn't really on my radar right now. He'd want a lot of money - far beyond his performance to this point - and I'd lock down Sano before considering Buxton. Sano has a lower ceiling but much higher floor (ie. it's unlikely Sano will be out of baseball or a bench bat any time soon).
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No arguments from me, I just think it's a bit early to show concern. If radical roster changes don't happen on the fly in the first half of the season, I'll begin to show concern. If obvious trades need to happen at the deadline and don't, I'll become more concerned. If we see another slow offseason in 10 months, then I'll be legitimately concerned. Falvey and Levine have a lot on their plate. I have no idea what order they're tackling their biggest concerns (or even the order of their concerns). Time (and action) will begin to tell more of a story.
- 132 replies
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- miguel sano
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If a deal of that kind can be found, I'd jump all over it... But I'm skeptical a team out there is that interested in Polanco or Rosario. I just don't see much of a market for those guys, particularly Rosario. A team like Tampa likely glances at his swing rate and contact rate and immediately says to the Twins: http://www.blinkydog.com/wp-content/uploads/Dogs-Do-Not-Want-2.jpg
- 132 replies
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- miguel sano
- ervin santana
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Kepler is the only guy I see on the roster that approaches anything near max value right now. Sano had a down year. Buxton is still a big question mark. Rosario is who he is. Polanco is intriguing but out of options and was never that highly regarded by analysts. I don't see much of a return for him. And I'm not ready to get rid of Kepler. I think he's been an underrated guy for quite some time and is likely to end up better than his projections. It's great to say "make moves!" and I'd like to see some roster action... But it's a lot harder to say it when you start putting rubber on the road. Who do you move? And what other problems does that cause in future seasons? The Twins were a 59 win team with one of the youngest rosters in baseball. It shouldn't surprise any of us that they don't have a lot of max value guys right now.
- 132 replies
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- miguel sano
- ervin santana
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My wife and I took a combination of a safe bet along with fortuitous timing and luck. We bought in 2011, right as the market bottomed out. We bought a cheap house in North Minneapolis - coming from Long Beach, the idea of NoMi didn't worry me and my wife was born here - and should have the house paid off 10-12 years after we bought it. I came damned close to buying not only during the housing peak but almost did it in Los Angeles. That would have been disastrous, as housing prices in CA literally dropped 50% within a one year period. At first, we considered selling this house and upgrading to another house either on Victory Memorial Parkway or in Bryn Mawr but I doubt that will happen now. The allure of being mortgage-free in 5-6 years is too appealing to resist, I think. Instead, we'll just continue to upgrade this house. We have some additional room to expand in the basement so I doubt we'll outgrow this place, provided we stay somewhat frugal with our desire to buy all the stuffs.
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Yeah, it's frustrating to have so little information on something we care so much about. We were used to the old front office and how they operated but we have no idea what's happening in the current front office or what to expect on Opening Day. I merely hope it's not more of the same, though given Falvey's pitching success in Cleveland and Levine's involvement with an aggressive Rangers front office, I don't believe that will be the case.
- 132 replies
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- miguel sano
- ervin santana
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