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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, the correlation between spring training results and regular season results is extremely weak and the data is considerable. Enjoy the games, revel in the fact that baseball has finally returned, but don't put stock into much of anything that happens before April.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Stop. Hitting. Walls. Byron. He could easily be a $200m player on the open market if he stops hurting himself. Last season showed just how devastating he can be when healthy and hitting.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Square Enix.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Good luck with that.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, the Sox could easily be a 90 win team if they get 2-3 breaks for them this season. The thing is that getting 2-3 breaks from 23-26 year olds at the same time doesn't often happen. The Sox *will* be good, just probably not in 2020.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I actually feel this way as well. Houston will still be good, don't get me wrong, but I'm not confident they're going to just push over the rest of the division, particularly the A's. I think the scandal will wear down on them over the course of the season and losing the 6-7 wins from Cole is going to sting, not even counting the fact that either/both of Verlander/Grienke could decide to get hurt or decline pretty rapidly at that age. They will still be a very good team but it wouldn't shock me if they "scuffle" to 91 wins and lose the division.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Hold up, now... The White Sox are clearly the favorites in the division. https://southsideshowdown.com/2020/02/05/chicago-white-sox-minnesota-twins-cant-compete/ (click through this writer's other entries, they're really hilariously bad) But in all seriousness, I'm surprised the Twins are under 70%. Not that I disagree, I'm just surprised. I simply don't have a lot of faith in Cleveland and I don't think the White Sox are ready to step over 90 wins so I'm not thinking about them too hard.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Ryan unfairly gets credit and blame for those drafts depending who you talk to that day. Personally, I give him neither credit nor blame for much of anything under Smith's tenure, though he certainly influenced some decisions. But you're right that Polanco and Kepler get a ton of credit for the work they put into becoming MLB ballplayers. To swing this back around to the current front office, I don't know if I'd give them too much credit for either Polanco or Kepler, as both players were making real inroads to becoming legitimate MLB players before this front office came around. But I don't need to look any further than Mitch Garver to see how this front office has improved the team. There's no way in hell previous front offices would have put the coaching staff on the field and the methodology in place to turn a tweener like Garver into possibly the best overall catcher in Major League Baseball. In my opinion, the conclusive evidence everyone seems to be searching for in this thread begins and ends with Garver's improvement.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Tell that to Donald Sterling.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    One team won 59 games. The other won 78 games. Those aren't similar numbers.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    This is surprisingly common and from what I understand, often not the player's fault.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not about an Odorizzi and Maeda performance comparison straight-up; money and contract length also play a role (money being the primary reason the Rays dealt Odorizzi in the first place).
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    This is truly a delightful thread to read through two years later. I was middling positive on Mejia. That, uh, didn't really work out. But holy gods, the hot takes...
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    If those things happen, they're better than the 91 team. That doesn't mean the 2020 Twins will win the World Series but the best team often doesn't win the World Series so there's that. This team has a single weakness, literally one: the lack of a #1 starter. Past that, they're average or above average at literally every single other roster spot out of 25. That's amazing. Again, that guarantees nothing but this season sure should be fun to watch.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Sigh. I'm not even sure what you mean by that but it doesn't look good.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    It's always fun to go back and read this stuff. My in-the-moment take from two years ago: "I wanted something better than Odorizzi but straight up for Palacios? lol yes every day"
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Bolded: woof, understatement of the century. But I agree that Cave isn't a great fit for the Twins unless Buxton is injured (sigh) because he doesn't complement Rosario or Kepler. But I'd hate for the Twins to move away from him without getting anything in return, as he's a moderately valuable piece. But no way in hell would I trade Rosario to clear space for him, either. With the expanded roster in 2020, I suspect he'll make the opening man 26. After that, I don't know what should or will happen to him.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Given the Twins roster and their farm system, that's so unlikely to happen that I'm not even sure it's worth considering (though I appreciate the sentiment that Maeda deserved better than the Dodgers gave him and his contract should reflect the flexibility he brings to the roster).
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I've been discussing this with some people and our (really my) stance is to hold out for a little while and see what happens once MiLB games resume play. I'm not against making this change, really, but we just made a pretty big policy change on article threads and I don't want to keep switching it up on moderators and users. If the general consensus is that this is still a problem in mid- to late-April, we'll make adjustments. In the meantime, sorry this is a bit of a hassle but I'm sure you understand why I'm not eager to keep making more and more changes before we really see how the first change plays out in the regular season.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect he'll stay in the rotation for two reasons: 1. Pitching "depth" always seems to evaporate by July 2. Even if the Twins have some "depth", I struggle to see the likes of Homer Bailey pushing Maeda out of the rotation
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    But, see, now you're just skewing it the other direction. Cave became a regular player on August 3rd, when the Twins still had to face Cleveland three times, Boston once, the Nats once, Atlanta once, and Milwaukee once. Cave's improvement could be entirely luck-based or it could be a legitimate improvement. The reality of the situation is that over ~100 plate appearances, anything we try to glean from that minimal number of chances shows our own bias, not any factual evidence of who Jake Cave will be in 2020. Unless someone wants to spent a few hours digging into the minutia of exit velocity, opposing pitcher handedness, zone swing/take rates, and the slew of other data that might tell us more about Jake Cave's (possibly superficial) improvement, we're just throwing ideas at a wall. Andrew dug into those numbers a bit but it's still not convincing me of anything one way or the other because we saw two Jake Caves in 2019. The sample size is still small enough that there's a good chance it all means nothing.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    If Cave breaks out, great, but I'm not holding my breath. But he's just fine as a fourth outfielder. He's pretty good in that role, actually. But he's also the kind of marginal player that teams let go once they start making more than a couple of million dollars a season.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    First, Bailey became a much better flyer once Maeda was acquired as a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation. Initially, I hated the Bailey contract but once Maeda came along, it's a good deal. Like Sanchez in 2018, it's a good insurance policy until something better comes along. If you lose a couple of million in the process, big deal. That's literally 1.5% of the payroll as an insurance policy, then move on. This front office, thankfully, is willing to do that. Second, Gibson and Perez are entirely different entities, and that you lumped them together shows a lack of analysis. Perez had a hot start but overperformed his peripherals massively. Gibson was a good pitcher who was struck down by a sickness but everyone had reason to believe he'd rebound. Unfortunately, Kyle didn't only not recover but also learned he had a disease as a result of that sickness (which was borne out of charity work, mind you). So, maybe kinda different...
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Frankly, the cheating thing bothers me but it's not that big of a deal. It's a team getting a leg up against the rules, which happens all the time, this just happens to be an egregious example of it. But I want to see the Astros franchise burn; not necessarily because of the cheating alone but because of the systematic arrogance and disrespect they show to everyone else in the game (and life, really). Should Crane be removed? Probably. Does it really matter? Probably not, as he gets an epic golden parachute if he sells. Part of me would rather see him wallow in the sty he has created now that he's had some of his best lieutenants kicked the **** out of the game.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    While it's easy to get sucked into the concept of "impact" and look at the likes of Zack Wheeler (and don't get me wrong, I think he's a better pitcher than Maeda going forward), both Wheeler and Maeda have a career FIP of exactly 3.71.
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