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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    But Nick wasn't attaching value to his statement. He was referring to Dozier's skill set, which includes elite power for his position. And Dozier didn't double his home run total last season. He topped the previous season by 14 home runs, or an additional 50%. Nick's actual statement, for the record: "And here we're talking about Dozier, an elite power hitting middle infielder in his prime with two full years of control remaining." There's absolutely nothing wrong with that sentence. All three statements are true. Dozier is an elite power-hitting middle infielder. He's still in his prime. He has two years of control.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I really don't understand what the hell is going on in this thread. Whether you keep or remove Dozier's 2016 home runs, he still leads all middle infielders in homers over the past 3-4 seasons. By that standard - hitting more home runs than anyone else who plays middle infield - he's an elite power-hitting middle infielder. It doesn't matter if he leads by one home run or 20. He's the best at that particular skill and, therefore, elite. I hate to go all pedantic-semantic on the board but jaysus, the definition of elite is "the best in a class".
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    That hair transcends the Hall of Fame.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    FTR, I don't believe Dozier is an elite player either but he has an elite skill.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. It's not as if Dozier suddenly developed power last season. He was already at the top of the class when he was hitting a measly 28 home runs a season.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Nick's quote was "elite power-hitting middle infielder", IIRC. That's an accurate description of Dozier. The power-hitting qualifier is the elite part of Dozier's game.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the only outright bust from that group was Worley but May came along in the deal so it was still pretty reasonable. Capps was a dumb trade but Matt Capps was exactly who we expected him to be in 2010. Worley was a bust. May for Revere straight-up may end up being a fair swap. Meyer was buggered by the front office. He was a risk and maybe not a smart risk but the front office and coaching staff did that guy absolutely zero favors in the way they managed him.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    But that's not what was said. There's a significant gap between "in the playoffs" and "in the playoff hunt". It's the difference between as many as 5-7 wins on the season. An 83 win team is often "in the hunt" until early to mid September. The 2015 Twins were in the hunt until the last series of the season and ended up with 83 wins.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    No, definitely not... But I'm not sure 20% is that far off the mark. Think about it this way: is it unreasonable that if you ran five simulations with this team, one of out five times they end up over 80 wins? Given the explosive talent of Berrios, Buxton, and Sano with the interesting talent of Polanco, Rosario, Kepler, etc., a one in five chance of hanging in the WC picture isn't absurd. But you don't plan on the one out of five chance. You plan on the four out of five chance.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, he didn't gain anything from Target Field, I was more concerned with how his bat plays in Dodger Stadium, which is big pretty much everywhere. But it's been years since I was at Dodger Stadium and don't remember the typical wind patterns of the stadium.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    True, I guess PETCO is offset by those stadiums and I don't recall AT&T being that brutal on righties compared to lefties (but I'm drawing from hazy recollection here).
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I wonder how much this offer is effected by Friedman's concern over how Dozier's bat will play in the cavernous Chavez Ravine (and the tough NL West stadiums in general). At first glance, this deal seems like a no-brainer. The Dodgers need a bat to level the field with the Cubs and, while they're an impressive organization, there has to be some concern over whether their window will begin to close after the 2018 season when Kershaw can opt out of his contract. It doesn't appear the Twins are asking for the sun and moon. De Leon is a good, not great, prospect and the Dodgers are rather loaded with arms.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Previous seasons of Sherlock have been three episodes apiece. I don't know if this season follows that formula but I suspect it does.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I also finally got around to Westworld today. Through three episodes and yeah, this show is pretty much amazeballs so far.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    The numbers were only meant to illustrate a comparative point, not project any real performance.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I clearly think the Twins should care what people think? I explained my point clearly. Stop assuming you know what I think.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't change the subject, you interpreted my point to suit your purposes. Okay, but if you want to argue "player valuation", here goes: 10 WAR over six seasons is worth FAR less than 10 WAR over two seasons. One of those players is borderline elite, the other is a below average starting player. Comparing combined WAR over contract length overvalues mediocrity and undervalues good players. And that's not including the risk involved with any prospect versus the lack of risk of an established player.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Where did I say the Twins should care what the media thinks? You're the one arguing that De Leon is fair value for Dozier. My point is that few, if any, professional journalists would agree with you.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, then I'll put it in simple terms: If the Twins traded Dozier for De Leon, they would be universally criticized by baseball analysts and media outlets. That's a clear indication the two are not of equal value.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    But that's not really how this works. Dozier is a known commodity while De Leon has risk. Sure, it's likely De Leon ends up with a higher WAR over the next six years compared to Dozier's two years but it's also possible De Leon ends up with 0 WAR while it's highly unlikely Dozier posts no value over the next two seasons. The two aren't equal because of that risk.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    More tickets will go on sale shortly.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm inclined to agree, my contention was more with the certainty of Platoon's post than the thinking behind it. And while it's likely Dozier's value drops the moment Opening Day hits, if he's truly a 6 WAR player now, it's possible his value will remain high in June. We tend to view Dozier's 2016 as an aberration - which it likely is - but if he goes on another tear to open 2017, teams will likely view him as a legit 5-6 WAR player, not a legit 3-4 WAR player. So, in a perfect scenario, a legit 5-6 WAR Dozier coupled with a desperate team at the deadline may net the Twins similar value. Again, not a risk I'd take willingly but it's a possibility.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    While I agree it's highly unlikely Dozier will be more valuable in June than he is today, it's not a foregone conclusion. Teams at the deadline are sometimes desperate for talent. It's a longshot - one I wouldn't take willingly - but it's not certain what Dozier will bring at the deadline.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Very true but that may put even more pressure on the Dodgers in the short term. An emergent Urias along with Kershaw make Dozier even more appealing for two years.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    They're not. Maybe they're not quite as rabid as east coast fans but SoCal fans are not particularly forgiving, particularly when it comes to the Dodgers (which is LA's "first team", the Angels get a bit more slack).
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