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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    So far so good on Polaris. The stock is up 6% since I invested 10-ish days ago. I'm looking into Wells Fargo now. I was going to invest short-term into VW after the diesel fiasco but my wife complained about investing in such a deplorable company. Well, I could have flipped that investment +25% in two months had I gone ahead and done it (when I made the plea to invest, they were around $95/share). I think that's going to be my strategy for short-term investments, which I generally avoid... Find a company with strong peripherals currently amidst a crisis, wait for them to drop a significant amount, buy, and bail in 3-6 months. I'm not confident enough in my evaluations to dive deeper than that kind of low-hanging fruit when it comes to short-term investing.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm hoping this happens again, as last time I was caught in a bad spot and didn't have cash on hand to reinvest. Next time around, I'll be prepared.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm keeping the stock for the foreseeable future so I'm not terribly worried about it, only wondering when it will stop because, at some point, it will have to stop. It's also worth noting that in the future, Amazon is going to have to split their stock, which usually creates another small bump in valuation. Their stock price has topped $800 now.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, too much success without the earnings to support it becomes troubling at some point...
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Amazon continues to go bonkers, up about 10% on the month (again). Overall, I'm personally up about 130% on the stock since I bought in either 2013 or 2014 (can't remember). I'm a bit concerned about the stock. Not Amazon's future, which is very bright, but the continued jumps the stock is taking. Amazon has committed to turning a profit from here on out, which is great, but the stock is trading at 200+ P/E. I'll stick with them but honestly, I'd prefer the stock stay flat for awhile and let the P/E catch up as Amazon consistently turns a profit.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Listen here, clowns. You can either watch this team lose again or you can flip over to the LAD broadcast and hear Scully broadcast his last series. This isn't even a decision.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this is one of the few things that TD agrees on nearly 100% of the time.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Does he, though? In a seven man bullpen (much less an eight man), there's plenty of room for two guys at the bottom of the pen who specialize in throwing multiple innings. The 4-5 guys at the top can specialize in single inning appearances. That doesn't mean they never pitch more than one inning but in Tonkin's case, he's approaching 40% of his appearances being longer than a single inning.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    About Tonkin's extended use. It's an interesting thing to note but I'm not entirely convinced it means anything. Here are his combined MLB/MiLB numbers from 2013-2016. I've extracted the number of >1 IP appearances versus total appearances. 2016: 69.1 IP, 63 appearances, 23 appearances >1 IP, 37% of total appearances. 2015: 64.1 IP, 59 appearances, 14 appearances >1 IP, 24% of total appearances. 2014: 64.0 IP, 64 appearances, 14 appearances >1 IP, 22% of total appearances. 2013: 68.1 IP, 61 appearances, 19 appearances >1 IP, 31% of total appearances. So, the number has trended upward from 2014-2016 but he also pitched nearly 1/3rd of his 2013 appearances in extended appearances (mostly in MiLB). Either way, this isn't a question we should be asking given the Twins' bullpen. If there's even a small doubt that Tonkin suffers from extended appearances, nothing would be lost by removing those appearances because, in case no one has noticed, this team is terrible at baseball and there were ample opportunities to let guys find their niche and be successful this season without overextending them into situations under which they don't/can't thrive.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a fair point but... 1. I'm not sold that Molitor will be the manager next season. That easily could have been a version of "we have utmost faith in our manager". 2. Molitor is only under contract for one more season. Nobody brings in a GM for a single season. An incoming person could say "I'll see what Molly has for a season and make a decision." It's unlikely he or she will feel the same about a GM.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I see your point - and I think a terrible FP% is usually a good indicator a player isn't polished/good at the position - but I believe it's a bit more complex than that. Some guys have a bad run of errors and it's hard to recover from a number that start abysmally low. Some guys are harshly judged or another player contributes to an error(s). Then there's the fact that if a player is super-athletic and gets to the play but fumbles it, that *could* be ruled an error, even though another guy doesn't even get leather on the ball. And that's the problem with fielding percentage. What's worse, a guy who occasionally kicks the ball but makes stellar plays at a 1:1 rate with his errors? Or the guy who almost never kicks the ball but doesn't ever get to those stellar plays? The net result could easily be zero between those two players but advanced metrics try to factor in those differences while FP% is "eh, whatever, it's the judge's call". And I'm not even bringing up how erratically errors are given/withheld in today's game. It's basically nonsensical. Some plays are required to give someone an error because a runner advanced on the play. What if no one is deserving of the error? Who gets saddled with that drop in FP%?
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    There's a slight difference between letting someone walk away for nothing versus trading a player for a high-end prospect at a position of need.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I just don't see it. If the Twins are going to hire one of the four finalists (sans Antony), I don't see any of those people taking the job and saying "but I'll let you decide who my GM will be on day one". All four of those guys are highly respected and will likely have other POBO/GM interviews in the near future. Why would they accept a job where the owners meddle so much as to dictate their subordinates? If they just wait one more year, they will probably get another round of interviews with a different team (especially McLeod, who is one of the most sought-after front office guys in the sport). These four guys are interviewing the Twins nearly as much as the Twins are interviewing them. This isn't a typical "I'll take the job because I need it" scenario where the business has most (all) of the power. These candidates can afford to pick and choose their roles.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I am completely, unequivocally, 100% on board with this idea.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm comfortable stating that May is an upgrade over this year's mess. Whether he'll be any good is another question. The bar is ridiculously low.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this team is better in 2017 without Dozier, provided they acquire an MLB-ready piece in return. Dozier has been a 6 WAR player this season. Great. But the Twins have five starters with a negative rWAR on the season: Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, Milone, Dean. Five guys, the worst of which is Berrios at -1.8 rWAR. Yeesh. The yuck of those numbers cannot be overstated. But we're not getting rid of Berrios so let's target the next guy on the list, Tyler Duffey, at -1.5 rWAR for the season. Pick up a middling league average-ish guy for 2017 who will accumulate 2 rWAR in a season. Right there, we're +3.5 rWAR, over halfway to Dozier's 6 rWAR total (which he's unlikely to repeat anyway). Replace Dozier with Polanco and find an acceptable shortstop. Either Escobar or a glove-first guy who can scrape together 2 rWAR over a season. Now we're at 5.5 rWAR, which is probably higher than Dozier's expected 2017 WAR. I realize WAR doesn't translate directly to wins, especially when comparing pitchers and hitters. This is only an example of how easy it could be to replace Dozier and not actually get worse as a team because the pitching staff has been that bad. (and none of this includes potential improvement from a team full of under-25 players, or the added benefit of Duffey potentially turning from a disaster to an asset with a move to the bullpen)
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins need to make up ~115 runs allowed just to move to 14th place in the AL. That's .75 runs per game. It's not going to take a catcher, it's going to take four decent rotation pieces (currently have one) and at least two strong bullpen pieces (currently have zero). Five pitchers needed and even then, success is far from guaranteed. That's just to move from "omg legendarily horrible" to "eh, still pretty bad, near the bottom of the league". To be considered even average, the Twins pitching staff needs to allow one full run fewer per game. Think about that for a moment. One run fewer. Per game.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't believe the offense will be just as good without Dozier but the real question is "what leads to more wins?" 1. Dozier/Polanco + Pitching Scrub X 2. Escobar/Polanco + League Average Pitcher with Upside And that's not even bringing into the discussion where Dozier is only here for two more seasons and it's unlikely the Twins will be competitive in at least one of those seasons. The idea is that whatever pitcher is acquired doesn't leave after the 2018 season and will be under team control through at least the 2020 season. If the Twins needed only one or two pieces to scratch their way into even being a pretender, keeping Dozier might be an okay move... But the Twins don't need a piece or two. They need an entire rotation, most of a bullpen, and a damned catcher, to boot.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I generally agree, though I didn't have problems with Miggy winning MVP in his triple crown season. It was the first time an AL player did it in 50-60 years. That's kind of a big deal. But mostly, yeah, Trout. He's the best position player in baseball.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think it would matter much. There are big differences between how people view the Most "Valuable" Player and mostly, I'm okay with it. Do RBI count? I'm fine if they do. They were things that happened, runs were scored. To an extent, the same goes for Runs. Does a winning team matter? I'm fine with that, too. I don't think it should be the be-all, end-all factor but if it plays a part in the decision, whatever. WAR or traditional stats? Eh, whatever. I lean toward advanced metrics but there's *some* merit to the old school metrics, too. At least in the case of deciding who had the largest positive impact on their team's season, anyway. When you get right down to it, I don't have a problem with most award winners unless you get into the ridiculous territory of Bartolo Colon winning over Johan Santana simply because he did really well in one statistic, a mostly useless statistic at that. But that happened a long time ago and I think we've moved on to smarter decisions since that point.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm seeing a lot of herp-derp on Twitter about Dozier and the MVP. Personally, I think he's a decent candidate but hasn't posted the numbers nor had a respectable team behind him, which puts him behind a half-dozen or so candidates. Ultimately, I think Dozier gets a few votes and finishes somewhere just outside the top five. At least that's where I'd put him this season.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The primary purchase when I moved to dividend stocks was GM. I think I put in something like $5k. The stock has been neutral for me but I've received three dividend payments from it, I think.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I considered a similar move, though I've been in T-Mobile for 3-ish years so I figure I have my telecom bases covered with them. No dividend but they continue to grow at a much greater rate than other carriers, which has led to a 70% gain in the three years since I bought into the stock.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    To absorb a bit of risk in my tech stocks - Amazon, Google, Netflix, Square, Facebook, Tesla, etc. - I've been putting more money into dividend stocks over the past year. I'm to the point now where I receive ~$1000/yr in dividends. Maybe more, I haven't really added them together in awhile.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Took a small risk and dropped $1200 more into Polaris. Their stock dropped roughly 20% over the past month due to a recall, which forced a pretty severe adjustment to their upcoming quarterly report, and stagnating sales in the ATV segment, their primary profit center. But they pay a solid dividend, a 3% yearly yield, and their motorcycle division continues to impress. Overall, I think they'll be back to that $90-ish mark within a year or two.
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