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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I think Banks is an interesting comparison. 1100 games at short, then another 1200 at first with diminished offensive performance. There's a good chance Mauer ends up with a similar split, though lower numbers all around (currently with 900 games at catcher, should end season close to 400 at first base).
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Mauer is absolutely a better player than Mattingly, if only because he played good defense at the hardest position on the diamond, not the easiest. As for offense, if Mauer was a first basemen from day one, he has hundreds of more PAs at this point in his career. Maybe even 1,000. Maybe even more because of the concussion. Mauer crossed 600 PAs only four times while he was a starting catcher. Mattingly crossed 600 PAs five times through his age 30 season and 700 PAs twice. Add up those 50-70 PAs over a decade and you have nearly one full season that Joe didn't play and not because he was injured, but because he played the hardest position on the field.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Ding ding ding. They were basically the same player. Good average, good discipline, good power, good defense at a non-premium position. Both suffered career ending health issues too early, though Mattingly gets sympathy points for not eating himself out of the game. Mattingly: PA: 7722 Slash: .307 .358 .471 .830 OPS+: 127 rWAR: 42.2 Hrbek: PA: 7137 Slash: .282 .367 .481 .848 OPS+: 128 rWAR: 38.4
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't understand why people are so upset about the Tonkin piece of this article. Whether you believe Tonkin to be a decent middle reliever piece or not, he's playing out of position and that's an all-too-common theme around Twins Territory over the past several seasons. Maybe Tonkin isn't a great example of the problematic thinking behind this franchise but it doesn't really matter because he's one example of many. Put guys into the role where they are most likely to succeed. It's not as if the Twins have such bullpen talent that they can't find room for Tonkin. How many aggravating mediocre vets has this team rolled into close games over the past 4+ seasons? They put Tonkin into long relief because they wanted to put him in long relief, even though he has pitched 2+ innings in less than 10% of his career appearances. All of this points back to Nick's primary point: the Twins do not appear to have a plan. With too great a frequency, it appears they move a player around the diamond or change his role with a "let's see what happens" approach. Miguel Sano, Danny Santana, Trevor May, Michael Tonkin, Alex Meyer. It's a long bloody list. Occasionally, "let's see what happens" is an acceptable approach when you're in a pinch or backed into a corner. It should never, and I repeat never, be the first option. Hell, it shouldn't be the second or third option, either.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Putting all those decisions in a list triggered my gag reflex. Thanks, Nick.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes. Cynicism is easy. If you never give anything, you'll never lose anything. The world will ultimately conform to your viewpoint because discarding anything positive and laying in wait for the negative that inevitably comes will prove you right at some point.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, I see what you're saying. I thought we were talking about relative performance and further down the WAR chain, not the top of it.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    What sarcasm? And what did I predict? Seriously, the entire point of my post was that I didn't predict anything at all and will withhold judgment until SOMETHING HAPPENS.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, that makes sense. Spend a bunch of money on a consultant firm, spend more money for a figurehead, spend even more money on a new GM, and then continue operating business as normal. C'mon guys, the negativity and presumption on this forum in the past week has become intolerable. Let the process play out, then form an opinion. This is good news, there's no need to **** all over it. If the Pohlads flub the process from this point forward, I'll be right there beside you, pitchfork in hand but there's no indication they're going to flub the process other than wild speculation and blinding resentment toward past actions.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm thoroughly confused. Amaro was the Phillies GM. Macphail is the president. Macphail replaced Gillick, who was the interim president for 11 months.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    No, they had an interim president for nearly a year.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Ugh. Sorry, but it's like you're intentionally missing my point. I'll put it in clearer terms. Pick which one is more impressive: 1. Fifth most valuable player in the West Arkansas Little League finals 2. Eighth most valuable player in the College World Series More players aren't a bad thing if the players are better. You're using a raw number without factoring in talent level or number of participants.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Ryan was fired/left less than six weeks ago. This timeline is pretty reasonable. The process should be thorough and it should take a few months. The Twins aren't looking for part time work to fill checkout counter six, they're looking for a new head of the organization. And your timeline with the Phillies is waaaaaayyyyy off. I suggest you do a bit more research. Macphail replaced Gillick, who held the interim title for nearly a full year.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    This is the best Twins-related news I've heard in five years.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I think we're talking past each other a bit. Your original point was that there are more WAR points available today than there were in 1960. But WAR is "Wins Above Replacement". If "replacement level" is higher than it was 60 years ago, it's harder to earn 1 WAR than it was in the past. If there are more, better, players competing for a single point of WAR, the net result is approximately the same (and I'd argue it's harder today) no matter whether there are more points available at large. If 1,000 superior players are competing for 1,000 points of WAR, it's harder to earn that point than if there are 500 inferior players competing for 500 points of WAR. On top of that, the player rankings as skewed. To be fifth best in a 500 player league (just using general numbers here for simplicity) means you're a top 1% player. But to be fifth best in a 1,000 player league means you're a top 0.5% player. That's why comparing eras simply by rank is a problem. Today, there are more players, better players, with a higher level of average player performance. The overall point pool is higher but that doesn't matter because the pool of competition is so much higher today. It's akin to this: If you're the fifth best high school player in Minnesota, that's great... But if you're the fifth best high school player in the nation, that means you're phenomenal. If you're the fifth best high school player in the world, that means... Well, you get the point.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not even a little bit true. Today, the 50th best player in MLB is almost surely better than the 25th best player 50 years ago. In my eyes, that can't even be disputed. Racial integration, foreign players, astronomical salaries... Those aren't providing roster backfill players. Those are providing a crop of quality MLB players much larger than any time in history. MLB pulls from a pool that's at least 10x (probably more like 100x) the size it was in 1960. Hell, the population of America alone has more than doubled since 1950, never mind the pool of players from Venezuela, PR, Dominican, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Europe, etc. That leads to better players (and lots of 'em), I don't care how many teams are in the league. It's a hell of a lot harder to make it to MLB today than it has been at any time in the history of the game because there are higher numbers of better athletes challenging for a limited numbers of spots.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    That's an interesting way to look at it. On the other hand, replacement level is a lot higher today than it was 50 years ago. And more players means it's harder to scale the rankings. What was 5th in a 16 team league should be roughly 9th in a 30 team league. It's going to be tough to sell me on the idea it was easier for Joe to earn that WAR than, say, anyone who played before 1961. Or even 1981. There may be more overall WAR points in play but the level of competition for those points is much higher.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I understand your point about hits v. walks - and to an extent, I agree - but you lost me when you transitioned to seasonal comparisons of counting stats. Puckett was an everyday centerfielder who had 600+ PAs most seasons and a few 700+ seasons. By comparison, Mauer was a catcher who crossed 600 PAs only four times and never approached 700. Some of that was due to injury - Puckett was mostly healthy while Joe had issues - but a large portion of it is due to the demands of catching. Seasonal comparisons of counting stats will always skew in favor of the non-catcher.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    If Joe's OPS continues to drift upward for a year or two and flirts with .800 for awhile, I think that helps his cause. At that point, it's painfully clear the concussion is what derailed his career (despite what many have argued over the past few years). Just look at that OPS by year: .939 (SSS) .783 .936 .808 .864 1.031 .871 .729 (bizarre injury year) .861 .880 concussion .732 .718 .779 If Joe posts another .780-ish season, I don't see how anyone can argue the concussion is what did him in. It wasn't the shifts, it wasn't aging, it was the knock to his face. Sure, maybe those other things contributed a bit but shifts and aging don't account for 150 OPS points overnight. Hell, look at the Cubs, the most advanced team in the league. They (mostly) stopped shifting, which puts into doubt its overall efficacy.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    He accumulated 79 of those IBBs from 2004-2010. The hitter slotted behind Joe in most of those games? Justin Morneau. So... no.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    The Minnesota Twins in August: .798 OPS, 2nd in the AL. 5.69 ERA, 14th in the AL (props to the Angels for somehow being worse than this team). 9-12 record. So, yeah, you kinda have to trade Dozier for pitching. Not catching, not another positional player... Pitching. It's risky but when your rotation has this little upside, it's a move you need to consider. This trend isn't going to reverse by itself. Yeah, maybe Berrios gets better. Maybe you put May in the rotation. Maybe Santana holds steady. If everything goes right, this rotation is league average. One needs to aim a little higher than that.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Dozier's hot streaks are amazing.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I can't help but wonder what Byron Buxton would look like today if the Twins hadn't called him up on May 31st. I was against the move at the time but said "now that he's up, you play him every day and let him figure it out". Buxton only has 55%-ish of a season of total MLB plate appearances. I'm not in panic mode - yet - but I really dislike what the Twins have done to his development. Again, his high water mark of plate appearances at a single level before promotion/demotion since June of last season is 169. That was 45 games, or just over 1/4 of an MLB season. I'm not sure why we expect anything vastly different than what we've seen so far. Sure, maybe he shouldn't be this bad but the Twins haven't given him a fighting chance at success. The moment he succeeds for three weeks, he gets promoted. The moment he scuffles for four weeks, he gets demoted. It's ridiculous. If a guy needs to fix his plate approach and/or swing, he can't do it in two ****ing weeks.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Patience is overrated? What? Buxton barely has half a season of MLB plate appearances. If you expect every prospect to start off like Kepler, you're going to have a very disappointing relationship with baseball. Buxton has been frustrating and bad but I lay a lot of that on the Twins. Over the past season and a half, he hasn't been allowed to play at one level for more than 50-ish games. That's bad management and that falls at the feet of the front office. They've been jerking him around unnecessarily.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I just searched the past five pages of this thread and no one used the phrase "can't miss" in reference to a an "ace" pitching prospect.
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