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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    John made a good point about innings. It's incredibly unlikely the Twins will want him pitching in September.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm a little embarrassed for you right now, nick.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Three years ago, I spent roughly 30 seconds deciding whether to invest in Facebook or Twitter. Facebook won the argument handily, I only wish I had been more confident. I think my reluctance over Twitter carried into my Facebook investment, which never should have happened for obvious reasons.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Why did I only buy $2k worth of Facebook stock three years ago? I officially doubled my money after today's earnings report. Argh. Stupid Brock.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. They're a flawed platform, the social media equivalent of Yahoo. They'll stick around, they have their niche, but their power will continue to wane over time.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Win Probability Added is a counting stat. It does not indicate the frequency of performance because different players on different teams get a different number of opportunities to shine. If you're the closer for a 95 win team, your WPA *should* be a lot higher than the closer for a 70 win team. To an extent, the same applies to SD/MD. They're counting stats that largely depend on opportunity. For example, Britton has 41 appearances. Chapman has 31 appearances. Don't you think using counting stats is a bit of a problem at that point?
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Sigh. Yes. I wasn't *entirely* against the Pelfrey contract (just mostly against it) because he profiled as an interesting bullpen piece. If you drop Pelfrey's curve (and maybe his splitter or slider, whichever is less effective in relation to the fastball) and let him reel back and throw one inning at a time, I suspect he turns into a much more intimidating pitcher. But we all know how that played out.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I openly admit I strongly disliked Chris Herrmann from day one. I also admit my dislike was kinda irrational.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I wasn't arguing with you, I was putting Thrylos' comments about Herrmann's BABIP into context of other MLB hitters, specifically Miguel Cabrera. I think we can both agree that a .371 BABIP is completely out of line with what we can expect from Herrmann going forward. But that doesn't mean he can't be a useful and productive player for the Diamondbacks. And we haven't even touched on his defense, which pretty much prevents him from ever being anything more than a backup catcher with relatively unknown hitting potential. In the context of the trade, both teams should feel good about themselves as of today. How it goes tomorrow, well, dunno.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, same here. Excited is the wrong word. Well, maybe I'm a *little* excited. For example, I'm intrigued by Adam Brett Walker. I don't think he'll be a good MLB hitter but he's an interesting case to follow and see how it all plays out in time. Whereas Palka looks a bit more legit. Eh, either way, it's nothing to rave about.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Expecting a .371 BABIP from any player that isn't elite is unreasonable... Hell, it's even unreasonable to expect it from the vast majority of elite players. Miggy has something like a .350 career BABIP (don't feel like checking right now). Expecting Herrmann to top that number is crazy talk.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, Herrmann has improved in some important, and sustainable, ways. But my point was really found in the last line of the post. "Reply Hazy, Try Again". We're excited about Palka. The Diamondbacks are surely excited about Herrmann. But there's a lot of short-term fluctuation going on here and we don't know if any of it is sustainable, both from Herrmann and Palka. As with most trades involving prospects, the real winner won't be known for a few years.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    It's kinda funny, in a sad way, to see Nintendo stock plummet because PEOPLE ARE STUPID. Nintendo announced they only receive 32% of Pokemon Go profits and their stock immediately went into freefall. ARE INVESTORS DOING NO RESEARCH? I thought this was common knowledge, stuff I found out during casual internet searches a few weeks ago. The Pokemon Company - the real owner of the franchise - is split between companies. Then Niantic gets its cut. And Apple and Google get their cuts. The real winner here is Google. They receive 30% of all sales on Android and they own part of Niantic. The secondary winner here is Apple. They do jack **** and receive 30% of all iOS sales. Sometimes I'm baffled by how little the "experts" know about the **** they invest in. It's likely Apple is going to make as much from Pokemon Go as Nintendo does and they literally did absolutely nothing and are not involved with the game in any way.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, the Twins could use Herrmann this season but are people really convinced the real Chris Herrmann has suddenly emerged from the ether? That's... Kinda insane, IMO. Chris Herrmann has 161 plate appearances this season. Well, that's... Not a lot. A guy can rake for a few weeks and look great with that sample size. Oh, wait, then we look at his splits: April: 31 PAs, .607 OPS, .118 BABIP May: 67 PAs, 1.122 OPS, .472 BABIP (whoa!) June: 48 PAs, .697 OPS, .344 BABIP July: 20 PAs, .824 OPS, .500 BABIP His 2016 BABIP total is .371. Maybe it's just me but my Magic 8-Ball reads "Reply Hazy, Try Again".
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Boy, that would be a real waste of athleticism.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Stop posting throwaway comments. Seriously. I never should have taken the bait but you reduced a multi-paragraph post into an argument over a single ****ing word. And with that, I'm done with this thread. Carry on with the conversation and sorry for the disruption.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not the one with the special definition. The Twins traded players for prospects. They held on to prospects. They didn't sign notable free agents for a few years. That's a rebuild. It wasn't a great rebuild but it fit the definition of the word.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    It's also partially a process and the Twins frequently met the requirements. - They didn't trade prospects. - They stockpiled the farm system. - They traded some veterans. - For multiple years, they didn't commit long-term money to expensive free agents. Listen, I get that you don't like the way the Twins rebuilt and, again, I agree with you. They did a lot of stupid crap and I disagreed with them on many occasions. But. It. Was. Still. A. Rebuild.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Everyone here continues to argue "the way I want a team to rebuild is the only approach that meets the definition of the word". Rebuilding a team is to turn it over to young players that are cost-controlled and living or dying by the results they provide. However the Twins got there - and it was an ugly, frustrating ride - that's what they're doing.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins haven't rebuilt in the manner you'd prefer. Hell, I agree with you. But that's not the argument you made, is it? You took umbrage with the use of the word "rebuild" at all. The Twins have rebuilt... Well, maybe not "rebuilt"... They're still in the process. Notice I'm not claiming the Twins have done the best job possible with the rebuild. Hell, I won't even claim they've done a good job because there are soooooo many bad contracts that hinder the future, stuff that simply did not need to happen. But the Twins have one of the youngest rosters in baseball and a handful of young, good players that only look to get better in time. That's a rebuild.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I'm tired of this argument... Not necessarily by you but the general consensus "the Twins haven't rebuilt". There is more than one way to execute an organizational rebuild. The end goal of a rebuild is to have a bunch of young players with upside as the core of your team. The Twins have done that. Roughly half of their position players are under 25 years old and project to be every day regulars. The other half of the position players are under 30 years old and have multiple years of control remaining. Did the Twins screw up along the way? Sure, that's pretty obvious. Lots of bad contracts, several bad roster decisions. But that doesn't mean they haven't executed a rebuild, albeit in a less-than-optimal manner (in my opinion).
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I fugged up the launch date of Pokemon Go and missed my opportunity. I planned to jump into Nintendo in a (rare for me) short-term move and then... Completely forgot about it. Arghblargh. Nice work, Joe.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I *hate* the notion of tanking for tanking's sake, especially at this point in the rebuild cycle. The Twins should move any player who can be traded and likely won't contribute to 2017 or even 2018. Abad, Nolasco, Suzuki, Kintzler, Plouffe, Milone, etc. The Twins should consider moving Santana, Nunez, and Dozier but only if the offer is right. You put your best young players on the field and let them play. If those players rally and assemble a competent baseball team, great. You're in a good position going into the offseason. If those young players collapse and tank the season, well okay. Now you have more information how to proceed in the offseason. This should be about your best and brightest young players in Major League Baseball, not draft picks. The draft is correlated to the performance of your young players and wishing those players to do poorly is shooting yourself in the foot.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I think we know A LOT more about the baseball side than we do the business side. We see the draft. We see how other teams build rosters and use their prospects. We see the free agents signed by the Twins and other teams for comparable money. We have hundreds of thousands of data points to quantify players. We have hundreds of writers who examine the Twins either casually or daily, each approaching the situation from a different perspective. There's nothing close to that on the business side of things. To put it in different terms, I work in the tech industry. I can tell you where Apple is going right with the iPhone and wrong with the iPad. I use their products and the competitions' products. I have a solid understanding of they devices and how they work. But I have no idea if Apple's expenditures on R&D is adequate. I have no idea if their recent buy-in to the Chinese Uber competitor was a good idea. I don't know which divisions are well run and which are poorly run, sucking up resources. All that stuff is under the hood. Their products aren't under the hood.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    You misread my post. I said: "Let DSP go be good at the things DSP seems to be good at." Target Field is nice. It improves every year. Beyond that, I can't really evaluate the business side of the Twins because there isn't a lot of information to evaluate from an outside perspective. The TV deal is questionable but the Twins have a lot going against them on the television side of things: the MSP market has a crap cable subscription rate. Without numbers in hand, I can't criticize their management of the Fox Sports contract because it's pure speculation. The Twins seem to think DSP is good at the business side of his job. Absent any evidence the Twins are a badly-run operation from a non-baseball perspective, I'll defer to them on the subject.
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