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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair to my post, here were the paragraphs following the one you quoted: "The Twins didn't get super-lucky with him, I'm sure they had scouts out there with information on his early season struggles with Tampa. But they kinda got lucky because, injury considerations aside, Jepsen was a phenomenal pitcher down the stretch and Kevin Jepsen is not a phenomenal pitcher." The Twins got the best two months of Kevin Jepsen possible but there was no reason to expect him to implode the following season. He had a solid track record of something just north of mediocrity.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, my bad. I missed that.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, but Jepsen was much worse the first two months of 2015, good the next month, even better the following two months.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, I remember reading he had fought a minor injury early in the 2015 season and wasn't healthy until July, when he turned back into a good pitcher (and similar to what he had done in previous seasons). The Twins didn't get super-lucky with him, I'm sure they had scouts out there with information on his early season struggles with Tampa. But they kinda got lucky because, injury considerations aside, Jepsen was a phenomenal pitcher down the stretch and Kevin Jepsen is not a phenomenal pitcher.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's not shoot for the moon here. I would have been happy with "trade Ramos for a guy who isn't a middling relief pitcher".
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Nick Blackburn, pitching savior.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Capps was slightly better but, yes, you are correct that the Twins picked up something resembling a clone of what they already had on the roster. And they gave up a pretty solid top 100 prospect for the honor. I don't think I've screamed as much about a trade as it happened as I did during that trade... Though I also hated the Young/Garza trade... Not because I expected Young to tank but because losing Santana AND Garza in the same offseason meant the rotation was, to be generous, not awesome.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I was meh on the trade when it happened. There was upside in Jepsen and he performed well in 2015. With that said, Nick has a valid point. Why is Ryan willing to give up Hu AND Tapia for Jepsen but unwilling to sign a reliever to a three year deal in the offseason? There's a cognitive dissonance in that approach and it really bothers me. As Nick pointed out, prospects are the most valuable currency in baseball, even more than cash.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    A bit unfair to compare a 29 year old whose career appears to be on the upswing to a bunch of retired players. When all is said and done, it's likely Nunez will be no higher than fourth on the list and he may not be on the list at all. But, other than that, good list. Hard to argue with most of the choices.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not trying to be snarky but given how his OPS+ over the past two seasons is 57 (456 PAs), good god, I hope he hasn't hit his ceiling.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I understand the Twins were in a really weird situation with Polanco - freak injuries caused some ill-advised call-ups - but some of that could have been avoided with less awkward 25- and 40-man roster construction. And I agree that the Twins haven't painted themselves in a corner... Yet. They can roll with Polanco as a utility guy later this season and next season... But that's going to involve Ryan clearing up some space on the 25-man roster... Something he hasn't been very good about in recent years. Trade Nunez and Polanco becomes (mostly) a non-issue. DFA Santana and that works, too. God, I hope Buxton is back soon so Ryan isn't tempted to hold on to Santana at the expense of Polanco (and while I kinda like Nunez, I don't see an acceptable alternative to trading him... The Twins need that roster space). Something has to give and space needs to be cleared.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    No arguments here. Polanco spent his first two option years accumulating 20 (!!!!!!!!!!! I cannot stress that enough) plate appearances. That's not bad 40 man management. That's "Dude, here's your pink slip because ARE YOU KIDDING ME" 40 man management.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, yes, and yes.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure they're forcing themselves into a corner with Polanco. Yeah, you want to see him play in Minnesota as much as possible but the Twins could easily trade Nunez and then Polanco gets playing time. Maybe Escobar gets injured. There's his playing time. And there's no reason for both D Santana and Grossman to be on this team. I HATE the way the Twins jerked around Polanco and wasted his option years but I don't think they're in a corner quite yet. There is enough trade bait and roster chaff to get him some playing time in the second half of the season.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    To clarify my point, I'd put everyone over 25 on the table at the deadline (maybe not Gibson but given his current value, it's probably irrelevant). I would do everything in my power to trade, return be damned: Suzuki, Plouffe, Milone, Nolasco (LOL) I would take any reasonable offer for: Abad, Nunez I would take offers on but only trade the following if the return brought back a prospect that can contribute within 18 months: Dozier, Santana Depending on how the Twins close out 2016, I may be more or less open to trading Dozier or Santana this offseason (also, a lot depends on Polanco). I don't expect the Twins to compete in 2017. I also won't rule it out this July. That means any valuable piece I send to another team this deadline needs to return a prospect that can help as soon as 2017 and no later than 2018. Dozier and Santana can contribute to the opening of the Twins' next window of competitiveness. I'm not giving either away unless the return is another player that can contribute to that window. I'm not interested in 2020. I care about 2018, maybe even 2017 a little bit.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't call you out. Go back and read your posts. If you can't see how you were antagonizing the situation right off the bat with the forest for the trees comment, whatever. People can disagree and argue without implying the other is stupid, short-sighted, or somehow deficient in their thinking and if they just saw it your way, the heavens would open to them and light would bathe them in Knowledge and Truth.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Cover my ass junk? For ****'s sake, Levi. You just can't argue civilly, can you? I'm not even going to bother.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed on both counts. Santana is worth less than Dozier. He's older and it's not that hard to spend $10m to take a flyer on a vet starter this offseason. It puts the Twins in an awkward situation: 1. Santana is more expendable than Dozer because he's older and not as valuable 2. Dozier is more expendable than Santana because Jorge Polanco is waiting While the Twins can trade both of them, I think that's a tall order for ANY deadline. It's hard enough to move one guy with 2+ years on his contract... Moving two of them would be remarkable. Which brings us back to the offseason. Which player has more value in the offseason? It's probably Dozier but given how craptastic the free agent pitching market looks this offseason, Santana might not be far behind.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not losing the forest for the trees, I'm simply not declaring 2017 a write-off in July of 2016. I'm all for trading guys if the return fits the Twins' needs... What I'm NOT for is trading guys just to trade guys (either trough nominal return on value or low minors prospects who won't help until 2020). And with that said, I'm still for trading everyone I can over 25, I'm just not going to give away Santana or Dozier. The deal has to be right, that's all. Because it's likely both players have similar value this offseason and by that time, you have more information how to proceed. It feels a bit convenient that you edited the last paragraph out of that post: "But, again, any and all offers should be heard. If the offer is good, Ryan should take it. I'm skeptical the 2017 team will be able to contend but I also think it's foolish to write off their contention in July of 2016."
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    That... Won't happen. If a guy has front of the rotation stuff and is in AA, it's likely the team would just put him in the MLB rotation and let it rip.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I think people are underestimating just how much coordinated effort it required for the Twins to be as bad as they were for the first two months of the season. It required regression from almost everyone. Not 1/3rd the guys, not 1/2 the guys... But more like 3/4ths the guys. That kind of group ineptitude doesn't roll around very often and it will ruin any team's season. And on top of all that horrible play and underperformance, they were still unlucky with sequencing. The Twins are currently -7 wins according to BaseRuns and -4 wins according to Pythag. Disclaimer: I am not ignoring any of the front office's mistakes. The Twins were as bad as they were through the first 70 games of the season in large part because the front office failed to do their job... But it didn't help that everyone decided to call in sick for two months, either.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The first half of the season is over. We've seen what happens when Rosario, Buxton, Sano, & Co. all fall on their face at the same time. It leads to lost baseball games and lots of 'em. But just because that happened in the first half doesn't mean it will continue through the second half. We're talking about a slew of guys under 25 years old, many of which are showing more consistent upside as they grow into themselves. But the pitching isn't going to fix itself. The bullpen looks adequate now but the rotation badly needs Berrios to step up and fill a role.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, that's pretty much my thinking. If they can get a solid prospect relatively close to the majors, one that might be able to help as early as 2017 (more likely, 2018) at a position of need, one has to think long and hard about that trade. Because, as you've pointed out, it shouldn't be terribly difficult to flip Santana's $13m salary into another similar pitcher for 2017.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a legitimate point and one that is hard to quantify. I think it boils down to personal outlook. Again, I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't trade Santana, only that they should demand a solid return if they do so.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. But all it takes is a decent-to-pretty-good Berrios and the staff suddenly looks much better. It won't win any awards but it might be enough to get by. Gibson, Santana, Berrios, Duffey, Pitcher X isn't a postseason winner but it might be enough to keep the Twins in the game provided the offense is adequate. And we shouldn't ignore how much better the defense is today and how much that's going to help a staff that struggles to miss bats. The infield is acceptable but that outfield of Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler is going to catch a lot of baseballs. Again, not saying the Twins are on the verge of contending, only that I wouldn't rule it out, either.
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