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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    And I haven't even decided whether I'm in a hurry to do this at all. Apple's earnings report is due in a little less than two weeks. Do I hold out in hopes the iPhone 7 and new Macbooks had a positive effect on holiday earnings or do I bail out beforehand, expecting another underwhelming quarter from them? It's a difficult decision.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I am. I don't have a lot of faith in the market right now and I'm looking for stable companies that return a high yield. I don't expect to see big gains in stock price so I'm shifting to dividends to weather the potential storm. Right now, my primary targets are WFC (damn, I wish I had just pulled the trigger on them after the scandal) and possibly GE. I may split between several companies with smaller investments to offset my risk, though. I'm really undecided.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Early contender for 2017 Understatement of the Year award winner.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this. It wouldn't take much more than De Leon to pry Dozier away from me but I need more than a guy whose track record pretty closely mirrors Jose Berrios, except two years older and without the durability. De Leon is a really nice piece but he's not a can't-miss prospect... Unless you consider Berrios a can't-miss prospect, which I certainly do not. And, again, Berrios has age and durability on his side. I wouldn't call De Leon an injury risk but there are concerns about his ability to pitch a full season simply because he hasn't done it yet. The innings requirement to be an MLB starter has been the death knell of many a pitching prospect over the years and there is always a risk involved when a prospect hasn't shown the capability to go 160+ innings, no matter his reasons for never doing so. Give me De Leon and one of Stewart, Alvarez, Buehler, etc. and that's probably enough to get the deal done for me... But trading a guy worth nearly 15 WAR over the past three seasons for a single prospect with question marks isn't a good gamble. You want a second guy in there to offset some of the risk of De Leon.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it would move the needle quite a bit, especially if they can't move Dozier. Replace a below-replacement level pitcher with a 2 win pitcher like Hughes could be a three win swing in itself. Remember that the 2015 Twins were incredibly lucky, about 10 wins better than their performance in BaseRuns. The 2016 Twins were equally unlucky and 12 wins worse than their performance in BaseRuns. While it's easy to dismiss a 59 win team and say "wins don't matter", the 2016 Twins weren't as awful as their record, just as the 2015 Twins weren't as good as theirs. A performance from Hughes - as unlikely as that may be - could help be the difference between an unwatchable and a watchable team this season.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I've decided that having 20% of my portfolio in Apple is no longer something I'm interested in doing so I'm going to pull $3-4K out of Apple and put it into a mix of dividend stocks. Any suggestions? Doing some research now and compiling names.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it will boil down to how voters perceive the concussion and transfer to first base. Will they view it sympathetically, a la Puckett, or as just another injury, a la Mattingly? I suspect that will be the difference maker. Joe had the dominant prime to make the Hall of Fame, that's not in doubt. Catchers who routinely post 5+ WAR seasons and rake in batting titles don't exactly grow on trees. How voters view his sudden transition to first base and mediocrity will likely be the deciding factor.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Here are some insights into Joe's hard hit percentages: 2006 (his breakout season) through 2013: 35% (also includes his terrible 2011 season full of bilateralness, when his hard hit fell to just 20.8%) 2014 through 2016: 29.9% 2014 through 2015 (his really bad post-concussion seasons): 28.8% That's a steep, sudden dropoff in the contact that matters the most. Isolate that terrible 2011 and it's more pronounced: 2006 through 2010: 35.5% 2012 through 2013: 37.2%
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Hard hit is definitely "different" than power but I believe its strongest correlation is to ISO, which is the measure of pure power. Hard hit balls fall in for hits at a very high rate and often go for extra bases. As pointed out, a 6% drop in hard hit is worth something around .050 slugging. It explains a huge portion of Mauer's drop-off. 2013 was one of Mauer's higher hard hit years but barely. He spent a bunch of years over 36% before the concussion, peaking over 41%.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    This is my understanding as well, though I can't recall where I read it. But it makes sense, as power is one of the last traits to age out of a player (along with discipline).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, but his hard-hit didn't decline, it fell off a cliff. 2013: 37.4% 2014: 28.0% It's hard to pin that on age, particularly when even Joe has admitted he's having a hard time seeing the ball (enter SunglassGate).
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Just found this on Fangraphs and it basically confirms my thoughts on Mauer's contact rate. http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-importance-of-hard-hit-percentage/ By losing 6% on his hard-hit percentage, he loses somewhere around .010 batting average and a whopping .050 from slugging. And remember, soft/med/hard percentages are separate from defensive shifts. They account for the ball off the bat, not whether it was caught or not. If Mauer had those same hit splits, he'd be back over a .280 batting average and over an .800 OPS again.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    At this point, Mauer needs to be a platoon player. It's damned unfortunate how that concussion so completely derailed his ability to make solid contact (defensive shifts didn't do him any favors either) but the painful reality is that it's unlikely he'll ever be an .800 OPS player again. I know some people believe the concussion isn't what derailed Mauer but the stats pretty clearly define how different he was pre- and post-concussion. Here are his Soft/Med/Hard % stats from 2013, which are pretty close to averages of his pre-concussion seasons: 2013: 11.2% / 51.4% / 37.4% And now 2016, which is probably his best season since the concussion: 2016: 13.4% / 55.3% / 31.3% That simply is not the same player. His hard-hit percentage is down six points. His soft hit is up two points. That's a player who simply isn't making good contact with the ball anymore.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, learned a few nasty lessons early in my investing about timing the market. Basically, the people who do this for a living are far more informed than I am so I buy into a company I believe in and just stick with it. So far, it has worked out very well for me, much better than trying to game the market with layman knowledge.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    While all of these things are legitimate concerns, I've gained 20% on my portfolio in the past year and nearly 10% in the past 3-4 weeks (not including dividend distribution, which boosts me another 5-7% on the year). I can afford to take a hit at some point because I'm not sure when the market will adjust and had bailed out a year ago, all those gains (even if they someday vanish/diminish) wouldn't have happened. Basically, I'm not confident we know when we're going to stop "winning" and it's possible, maybe even likely, my recent gains will more than offset any market adjustment.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    And we're sold out!
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, there are loads of other factors that go into a stock price. For example, Netflix missed earnings estimates a few times but explained they had invested loads of money - more than expected - into international operations. While that hurt their bottom line for 1-2 quarters, their stock price stayed flat or even went up because of expected future profits from that investment.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    We're down to just a handful of tickets remaining so if you want a ticket, order now.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    It was my fault. I've been fighting off a cold for the past few days and woke up late this morning. Tickets are now available.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I may steal the headline raffle prize. It's that good.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    But Nick wasn't attaching value to his statement. He was referring to Dozier's skill set, which includes elite power for his position. And Dozier didn't double his home run total last season. He topped the previous season by 14 home runs, or an additional 50%. Nick's actual statement, for the record: "And here we're talking about Dozier, an elite power hitting middle infielder in his prime with two full years of control remaining." There's absolutely nothing wrong with that sentence. All three statements are true. Dozier is an elite power-hitting middle infielder. He's still in his prime. He has two years of control.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I really don't understand what the hell is going on in this thread. Whether you keep or remove Dozier's 2016 home runs, he still leads all middle infielders in homers over the past 3-4 seasons. By that standard - hitting more home runs than anyone else who plays middle infield - he's an elite power-hitting middle infielder. It doesn't matter if he leads by one home run or 20. He's the best at that particular skill and, therefore, elite. I hate to go all pedantic-semantic on the board but jaysus, the definition of elite is "the best in a class".
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    That hair transcends the Hall of Fame.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    FTR, I don't believe Dozier is an elite player either but he has an elite skill.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. It's not as if Dozier suddenly developed power last season. He was already at the top of the class when he was hitting a measly 28 home runs a season.
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