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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's hard to predict what will happen in a few innings' time but there are a few things a manager can do to create a more flexible bullpen. For example, it's the sixth inning of a tie game. The bases are loaded with no outs. Call in your best reliever. Just do it. And teach your relievers that those situations will occasionally arise. They're the "eighth inning guy" 90% of the time but when an obviously critical situation arises earlier in the game, they should be ready to get the team out of the jam. Far too often we've seen that kind of sixth inning situation pitched by the "sixth inning guy", which makes zero sense. Deal with the later disaster situations when they arise, if they arise at all. Use your best guys earlier in the game when it makes sense. The manager doesn't need to do that often but there's some wiggle room in there I'd like to see explored more often; the "obviously critical" points of a game we all see unfold once every couple of weeks.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Buxton should definitely bunt... if defenses give him the bunt for a base hit. That applies to almost everyone in baseball. A player should rarely step to the plate with a bunt in mind, though.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    When he played for the Angels, there was no discernible difference in Santiago's HR allowed at home versus on the road. That angle doesn't really hold up under scrutiny.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Dunno about "stellar". The guy tracked through the minors at roughly the league average age while posting 3.6/7.8 BB/K rates. We all love to bash Tonkin and, by comparison, he tracked through the minors 1.5-2.0 years younger than league average age while posting 2.2/9.3 BB/K rates.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Under these rules, Pedro had 17 changeups alone. I'm not taking a dig at Duffey here (well, not really) and I realize his fastballs and curves are different offerings... But the guy could use a changeup or slider in a big way. The curves are great and all but having something with bite that complements the fastball would go a long way. Having two fastballs and two curves is not the same as having a fastball, slider, change, and curve.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    What a waste of Duffey. I hope they don't make him the long man. Sure, maybe it means he gets another shot at the rotation down the road but I'd prefer to see what he can do in a real bullpen role, not mop-up duties.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    From what I've seen, consistency is his biggest weakness, which may or may not be considered a "skill" in the traditional sense John was speaking. Polanco has the tools to play short - they're marginal but he could probably do it - but there's more to being an MLB shortstop than pure athleticism. One needs an outstanding toolset (which Polanco doesn't have) to overcome any deficiency in consistency. And that's not a rare problem to have, it keeps loads of toolsy guys off short in MLB.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Santiago also had acceptable results with the White Sox. I'm not arguing whether Santiago is a good pitcher, only that he's not terribly different than Gibson. And, yes, Santiago is a flyball guy, which is a good thing on the 2017 Twins. Gibson has a lackluster infield defense behind him and also has the disadvantage of the low strike being removed this season. I'm not sure why it's so controversial to suggest that neither Gibson nor Santiago are particularly good pitchers and are largely interchangeable. edit: did the strike zone change actually happen or was it only proposed?
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    You just illustrated why I have huge problems with fWAR for pitchers. If a guy "gets lucky" for four consecutive seasons and two different teams, it becomes pretty hard to argue it's "luck" with a straight face. FIP-based metrics have a place and they're accurate for most players but we need to admit they're flat-out broken for others (e.g. Nolasco, Ricky).
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm curious why people are willing to give Gibson a guaranteed spot in the rotation but think Santiago should be removed. I think Gibson has a slightly higher chance of being above average but when all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Santiago have a better season (as low as that bar may be for both of them). They're basically the same age and Santiago has a longer, better track record.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Flip a coin for Berrios or Mejia, I don't care. It's the kind of decision I could defend if it goes either way. But never Vogelsong.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I view front line starters as championship pieces. Right now, I'm looking at "not terrible" pieces. I think this team would benefit more from two 4/$75m contracts than a single 7/$150m contract. Lots of bad players on this team. More could be gained from two 4 WAR players than one 7 WAR player who will likely fade to a 2-3 WAR player within a few seasons. And it's a lot less risky to sign those two good players than a single great player.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    No worries, fixed it for you. I wasn't trying to call you out or anything, I was legitimately curious. I thought I was right but wasn't sure.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to be pedantic, but shouldn't it read "playoff berth"? Pretty sure "playoff birth" isn't the correct terminology. But, yes, I agree the Twins should start adding pieces next offseason. While I'm generally not a fan of $150m contracts to free agents, I'd be happy with the Twins picking up guys in the $50-90m range.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I'd prefer to see Buxton back off in exhibition games but I've learned that some athletes don't turn that stuff off and on based on situation. They're 100% GO TIME in every inning of every game. And that's okay. I'd rather see that than a player routinely take off plays or jog down the line on a grounder.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    A universe where Buxton is coming off a season when he got on base 28% of the time, which was still a 3% improvement over the previous season.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    What Buxton needs is a six week course at Delmon Young's School of Outfield Wall Avoidance®. BYTO users will know what I mean by that.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    To me, it really boils down to when he was using the pitch. Did hitters know it was coming because Hughes had just thrown two consecutive changeups after throwing three more to the previous batter? A deception pitch is usually only deceptive if the hitter doesn't know it's coming. All in all, I can't judge much from a single start. If Hughes is mixing in the change better two starts from now and it's still getting hammered, then maybe it's a problem.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    True, I misread that statement a bit. But that doesn't really change the story much. Hughes was working on a new pitch and it's the middle of March.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair and I guess I don't really care that much either way... what I care most about right now is that Buxton is nowhere near the top of the lineup. I want to see his OBP get well over .300 before I put him anywhere near the top of the lineup.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    No one is doubting Buxton's speed but if Byron can leg out a triple on a hit, Polanco should be able to score. Not only does Polanco get a 10 foot headstart (6-7 feet on the basepath, 2 feet more from Buxton starting from the RH batter's box), he starts out running (not coming out of a swing), and the distance to throw to home is usually a bit farther than a throw to third. If Buxton can catch up to Polanco on the bases, that means Jorge is a lot slower than what I've seen from him thus far.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, exactly. Polanco isn't going to get in anyone's way. He's fast enough to stay ahead of Buxton given a one base headstart.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Kepler, if he pans out, looks more like a three hitter to me. He has the OBP and power and everything to succeed in that role. Whereas Polanco doesn't have the power, which makes him a better candidate for the top of the lineup.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Hey, I'm as skeptical as anyone about Hughes being in the Opening Day rotation but I'm not going to use a stat line to make a decision. It's almost impossible for me to care less about the homers. What matters to me is that velocity. If the Hammond Stadium gun is accurate (and many reports suggest it is not), that's an encouraging sign... no, that's an understatement. That's an extremely positive sign and one that should get Hughes into the rotation on its own. If Hughes is throwing 92mph, he's one of the five best starters in the organization (maybe even the best starter in the org). End of story. If he's throwing 92mph and turns his change into an average pitch, he could be a well above average starter again. But I'm skeptical any of that will happen, especially based on a single game in mid-March.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    The guy is learning to throw a new (better) pitch. That's literally one of the main reasons Spring Training exists in the first place. Looking at a Spring Training stat line is how we get Aaron Hicks' 2013 season. How much success do you expect Hughes to have when batters see he's leaning heavily on a new pitch and throwing it far more often than he would in a regular season game so he can get a feel for it? As Nick mentioned, two of the three homers were off Hughes' changeup. How many homers does Hughes allow if he doesn't throw that pitch? One? Zero? Seven? That's why Spring Training stat lines don't matter... because pitchers often aren't playing the way they would in a regular season game.
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