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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Hey now, don't forget my sleeper on this year's roster: Jorge Polanco. Jorge has looked really good out there.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    It's hard for me to care who is the odd man out, I just want them to make a decision and get either Vargas or Park up here soon.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah... the last time I was worried about Mauer's defense was around 2015 and it turned out he was hurt at the time. The guy is solid at first.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Probably very little, as BYTO was pretty patient with prospects, especially good ones. But he'd almost certainly have a word filter like "pinwheel" by this point.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Pathetic.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    What has Hughes' velocity been tonight? I'll watch the game tomorrow but I'm curious how he looks out there.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Nice. I love the aggressive righty/lefty shuffling Molitor is doing this season. Where the hell was this guy the past two seasons?
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I just realized Hughes is on the mound tonight. Truly disappointed that I won't be able to watch the game. Heart breaking.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. When I saw Buxton flail hopelessly at a few pitches, then lose the leg kick, then bring it back, that's when I started becoming concerned. It's his process that worries me, not the early results.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    In situations like these, I prefer to use league stats over MLB stats. There's just too much noise between the NL and AL data. And the Twins were fifth in both overall walks and BB% (the better stat of the two, IMO) in the AL last season. And that's pretty good overall. As for strikeouts, I think it's six of one, half dozen of the other. Some of the young players certainly struggle with pitch recognition and swing at bad pitches but they're making up that ground at times, laying off pitches at an acceptable rate overall.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm meh on their pizza but love their brunch.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Where are you getting this stat? According to MLB.com, the 2016 team was fifth in the AL in overall walks. Fangraphs had them fifth in BB% in the AL as well. The 2016 squad had a ton of flaws but patience wasn't one of them and the team should only improve in that regard for 2017. Subtract Suzuki, add Castro. Subtract Santana playing time, add Kepler. Subtract Escobar playing time, add Polanco. When all is said and done for 2017, it wouldn't surprise me to see this team third- or fourth-best in AL BB%.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Strikeouts are definitely a problem in this lineup, I was merely pointing out that many of the players have acceptable or better walk rates.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I can't speak for the rest of the board but I'm getting tired from all this winning.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    If managers use that book on this team, I think they'll get burned and change that plan in a hurry. Kepler doesn't swing at everything and will likely swing at less going forward (career .074 isoD). Sano doesn't swing at everything, he just misses a lot when he does swing (career .098 isoD). I think people continually underrate Polanco's patience and I expect him to be one of the pleasant surprises of the season (career .059 isoD). Dozier certainly isn't afraid to take a pitch (.074 isoD). Castro has always been a relatively patient hitter. It's one of his few offensive pluses (.078 isoD). When you get down to it, two guys in the everyday lineup have bad discipline (Buxton and Rosario). And I expect Rosario to take a small step forward in that regard, though he'll never be patient. As for Buxton, he's a complete wildcard. I have no idea what to expect from the guy. Overall, this lineup is pretty patient across the board.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll take the over on a .663 OPS for Max. I think he'll struggle through periods of the season but I'm pretty bullish on the kid. I don't know if I'd predict a .770 OPS for him but he's certainly capable of it... if I had a gun to my head, I'd probably put him in the .720-.740 range. A few months of dominant hitting (.800+ OPS) mixed in with some abysmal .600 OPS months as pitchers adjust and take the advantage. I suspect Max will suffer early in the season as opposing managers stack LHP against him, especially if he stays near the top of the lineup.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, I was all in favor of starting him at the bottom and forcing him to work his way up the lineup. I hope he succeeds in the three spot but the first two games are a good example of why I didn't want him at the top of the lineup in the first place. But this entire lineup is so whacky that I don't know if I'd be hitting anyone where Molitor has put them.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't understand the Opening Day lineup at all but it amused the hell out of me because it was so absurd. And it ended in a lopsided win for the Twins. With a righty coming up in today's game, I'm pulling for an equally absurd but completely different lineup because confusion is sometimes delightfully fun.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    If Buxton has a .400 OBP this season, I'll eat my hat. There are situations where you simply want to get on base and Buxton should be able to steal second almost on command. And bunting for a hit 40% of the time is not an unreasonable number. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/10/3748738/best-bunter-all-time-career-bunt-hits-bases-empty-mlb Bill James agrees. If you put a bunt down the third base line, the expected batting average is over .700. http://www.billjamesonline.com/bunting_for_a_hit/
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, that's why hitters with Buxton's speed don't bunt for a hit at a 1.000 clip. But if they can do it 40% of the time, that's a good weapon to have in an arsenal.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's hard to predict the need/wants of the deadline this far in advance. Here's one scenario: The Twins are five games back. Polanco can't handle short but can hit. Dozier is sitting at 17 homers and .790 OPS. Mejia is struggling, Berrios is meh, Hughes is out for the season or in the pen, and Santana is chugging along with a 3.80 ERA. That's a pretty clear situation where you trade Dozier and strongly consider keeping Santana. And you can run a dozen different scenarios of that type and make a different decision every time.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins are five games out of the Central and three games out of the WC, I don't see them trading players. And I'm not sure how I feel about that. Lots of variables to consider at that point. I could see a scenario where it makes sense to trade one of Dozier and Santana but maybe not both. It really depends on the rest of the roster.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing is that using a linear arc, a 75 win season means they're a fringe contender at the deadline, probably within a few games of .500. If the Twins sell in that situation, I'm okay with that... but I'm going to hope for better because it's in the best long-term interest of this team to win baseball games. It's also possible the Twins are awful in the first half and decent in the second half but I'm not going to hope for bad-then-good. That seems like a bit too much to ask.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    They have the first pick in this year's draft. They can move Dozier and not be impacted at the level they'll be impacted by losing Santana. There is literally one rookie on this team. We're past the point of collecting prospects for the future and hoping for high draft picks. This team needs to start winning baseball games or it's unlikely they'll ever win baseball games with this core. If the Twins are out of it and trade Santana, that's the right move... but I refuse to hope they lose baseball games because it means their young core stalled out for the third consecutive season. If Sano and Buxton stumble again, it's unlikely they'll ever be above average players. These aren't guys with 200 MLB PAs to their name anymore. Sano has 800 MLB PAs. This is the point where they either start performing or it's unlikely they'll ever perform at the MLB level. Buxton has a bit more flexibility in both age and experience but he'll finish this season with around 1100 MLB PAs if he stays healthy.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Nah, I strongly hope for the former: 1. I like watching a winning team 2. If the Twins are in the race, that means they're getting solid contributions from their core of young players If the Twins get all the way to the break hovering around .500, it means a good portion of Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, Mejia, and Berrios are having acceptable or better seasons.
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