Where Are The Prospects?

I just wish they had moved Mauer out from behind the plate a year earlier, as many here and elsewhere suggested. His career, imo, would look totally different.

 

Of course, Mauer and Morneau are even earlier in history than Plouffe and Dozier.....

You know, I don't myself remember thinking it was time to move Mauer at that point, but I can certainly see why some would have.  Nonetheless, playing the 'safe' position of first base didn't save Morneau.  

Based on the prospect quantity argument Seth makes (have lots because most won't pan out), Dozier and Plouffe (and Span--and if you want to stretch, Valencia, Hermann, and probably some other's I'm forgetting) panning out isn't horrible.  Like many teams, high pick whiffs like Matt Moses, Levi Michael, those two MI's from a few years (Kelly and someone else) don't help.  

Still, that is somewhat balanced out by strong plays for Sano and Berrios.  Both those guys were there for the taking, and it was Twins who went out and got them.  

Is there something wrong with the way the Twins handle their prospects and rookies?  This year is a good example.  Several prospects have been brought up, yet they sat on the bench.  Should they be thrown into the game instead?  And does every good rookie have to slump in year two?  Are the minor league teams not developing these guys?  

I have read criticism and questioning at both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus of the Twins lack of ability to properly have their "toolsy" prospects reach their potential. It was brought several times as a concern for Buxton panning out at the plate. So, it is something that people outside of MN are noticing and that we might have to be concerned about.

My biggest concern with their prospects has been with the way it seem that they do not seem to develop any plate discipline with their best prospects. Some have good approach, but it is also something that a hitter can develop on his own too.

Twins hitters have historically broken out around 25-27.  Hrbek, Mauer and Morneau are the big exceptions, but if you look at Puckett, Hunter, Cuddyer, Gomez, Kubel, Dozier, Jones, Koskie, etc., it's around 25-26 when they really "get it" and play like big leaguers. 

You're seeing this right now with Arcia, as he just turned 25 and is looking like a quality power bat.  I expect Sano to be more in the Hrbek/Mauer/Morneau class, but outside of that we've got some waiting to do with the following:

Buxton - 22

Rosario - 24

Kepler - 23

Polanco - 23 in the summer

Gordon - 20...quite aways a way. 

On the flip side, our quality starters all seem to take off at 23.  This holds true for Radke, Santana, Garza, Baker, etc.  

For me, this is all the more reason to move Meyer and May into the rotation now, but it also dictates that we should be aggressive with our super talented group in Fort Myers right now:

Gonsalves: 21

Stewart: 21

Jorge: 22

Jay: 22

So, what does this mean?  I would start clearing the way this June or July.  It's time to swing deals, jettisoning Plouffe, Dozier, Suzuki and maybe even Park given that he's 29 and could probably net massive value with the way he's hitting.  

Same things with the rotation.  It's time to swing Hughes, Gibson, Santana and Nolasco, give May and Meyer their shots now, and then work in Gonsalves and Stewart next summer, ideally. 

Follow the lead of the Wolves and the Vikings.  Roll with the youth & talent versus the worst team in the MLB led by players in their respective primes.  We know what they net, and it's not good.  

Oh, and it wouldn't hurt to give Burdi, Chargois, Melotakis, Hildenburger, Rodgers, etc., etc. a shot in the pen over the next 4 months either...unless you're into masochism and the current bullpen.  

"Baseball, like life, is all about adjustments, and hopefully these young players will be able to do just that."

Exactly. The league has learned how to pitch to these guys - low outside breaking balls to Sano, anything but strikes to Rosario, any breaking ball to Buxton, no more high inside fastballs to Dozier.  It's frustrating to see the lack of adjustment by them in return.

maybe even Park given that he's 29 and could probably net massive value with the way he's hitting.  

 

You take that BACK!!!!!

I think that losing Buxton/Sano for all of 2014 slowed down the whole thing. They may be established by now if not for that. Both would have been up by the middle of that year, most likely.

 

2018 may be realistic, but I don't want to think like that. My thinking right now is I want to see improvement from Rosario and Sano, and I want to see Berrios work through things - assuming he will - and I want to see Duffey and May... And I want to see Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Chargois and others at AAA get up to the Twins in the next two months and start playing and be ready. I want to see improved play the rest of 2016. And I want them to be competitive in 2017. It's been long enough... But that takes more than the young guys, the Veterans have to do their part too. I expect the Twins show major signs of improvement this year yet so I can feel better about them going into 2017!

I agree, but you can see how people can lose faith in the system. As its been the same line for 3 years now. Judging by how they have handled some of the people you mentioned already this year. We may not see them improve and be optimistic going into next year. 

Last year, this year and next year will be the debut season of the next generation of Twins.  If I remember the 1982 Twins were rookies that went on to be the core of winners of the 1987 and 1991 world series.  in 1997, 98 99,00 and 01 were the rookie seasons for the core of the 6 division winning teams from 2002 to 2010.  Let that timeline marinate a little... 

Not a slag, but I thought the title "Where are the prospects" referenced the need at this stage in the season to bring up prospects, not regurgitate where they are in the system. I'm not saying the season is a complete loss, but I'm more interested in tuning in right now to see Meyer, Polanco, Kepler, ABW, Burdi, Chargois, Dean, and Turner etc. I know some may not be ready, I know some clocks start quicker than the organization would like...BUT it's not Memorial Day and I'm already writing West Coast road trips off my viewing schedule. Most of the above mentioned players will be league average at best. What's the harm in spending a few months having MAJOR LEAGUE personal evaluate and see what we have? Just my thought. Thanks for your work Seth

Just keep looking to the prospects, the promised land is just over the horizon...

Where have all the prospects gone? They haven't arrived yet. And too many of them are just that, prospects. You draft 40-50 a year. You maybe trade for a few. Sign a few more from other teams when their rosters get too big, or from the international pipelines. But it can take a minimum of 3 years, and often five before a prospect reaches the majors, and then 9 out of 10 times there are still growing pains.

To recap, let's look at the Twins draft choices who made it to the majors - with or not with the Twins - since Joe Mauer was drafted in 2001.

(-) = # of players drafted that are still playing ball in a pro organization major/minor.

2001 (2) Joe Mauer, Jason Vargas, Nick Blackburn, Matt Macri, Kevin Cameron, Jose Morales.

2002 (4) Denard Span, Pat Neshek, Brock Peterson, Garrett Mock, Evan Meek, Clete Thomas, Jesse Crain, Kyle Phillips

2003 (1) Scott Baker, Levale Speigner, Travis Metcalf, Steve Pearce, Mike Holimon, John Gaub

2004 (3) Trevor Plouffe, Glen Perkins, Kyle Waldrop, Matt Fox, Anthony Swarzak, Matt Tolbert

2005 (4) Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Steve Tolleson, Yonder Alonso, Alex Burnett, David Hernden, Charles Leesman, Rene Tosoni

2006 (7) Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson, Danny Valencia, Tyler Robertson, Brian Dinkelman, Anthony Slama, Jeff Manship, JP Martinez, Andy Oliver

2007 (6) Ben Revere, Seth Rosin, Chase Anderson, Chris Heston

2008 (11) Aaron Hicks, Tyler Ladendorf, Mike Tonkin, George Springer, Adam Conley, Aaron Barrett, Kolten Wong, Tyler Anderson

2009 (7) Kyle Gibson, Brian Dozier, Chris Herrmann, Mario Hollands, Pat Light

2010 (11) Pat Dean, Logan Darnell, AJ Achter, Ryan O'Rourke, Cody Martin, Eddie Rosario

2011 (17) Kyle Barraclough

2012 (20) Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Zach Jones (DL)

2013 (20) - 2015 - still waiting.

Yes, the Twins are pretty lucky with signings like Kepler and Sano from outside of the country. But it is players from 4 years and six years back that are just entering major league roster hood. So rebuilding takes a lot of time.

Even those names NOT ON THE 40 MAN that will probably get a callup this season, will just contribute next season as they get their major league legs. And another crop from a rich organization will make their debut in 2017.

Boy, there is a lot of names of guys that the Twins couldn't sign that made it with other teams. And rally, when you look at the BIG draft picture and the amount f money doled out, the results aren't knocking you off your chair.

You have two issues with building a PROSPECTS-BASED TEAM, either they all come up for big contracts in roughly the same 3-5 year period, or your minor leagues are so rich, you lose guys because you don't have protected roster space for them. Which means you constantly trade down...the 2nd/3rd/4th guy on your ladder to the majors for a lower level prospect who MIGHT make it. Or veterans for mid-level prospects (i.e. May and Meyer are examples) that could flame out or have entirely different roles than when you traded for them.

Kohl Stewart Scouting Report

Watched Stewart's start tonight v. Bradenton

Fastball:  His fastball is probably a major league level pitch right now.   In the first and second inning it was sitting (via Hammond Stadium radar gun) at 93/94.  Innings 3-4-5 it was more like 92/93 but he actually improved his velocity in the 6 and his short stint in the 7th.  

A+ hitters rarely pulled the ball against his fastball.

His control on the fastball was impeccable.  Stewart did not walk a batter in 6.1 innings, I think only had a couple of 3 ball counts and no 3-0 counts.  He often was sitting in the 1-2 pitchers advantage.

Slider: His slider is in the speed range of 86-88, with 86 being the most common velocity.  This is his problem pitch and the reason why Stewart does not generate a lot of strikeouts.  His slider is too much in the plane and his release point is too high, leaving the pitch up in the zone way too often. Sometimes he seemed to let up on the slider when he was ahead in the count and even when he had the ball-strike count to his advantage his slider was hit way too hard.

Curve:  I believe it was a curveball but I could not see the break.  Early in the game he threw his curve for strikes and the batters reaction seemed to indicate a well thrown curve.  These pitches were clocked at 79 mph and for the first 3 innings it seemed that every pitch in this speed zone were thrown for called strikes.  Later in the game the 78-79 mph pitch was not as consistently in the strike zone.

Stewart is a tremendous athlete for a baseball pitcher.  On a sacrifice bunt play the hitter bunted between him and the 3rd baseman (who should have got the ball).  The ball rolled past the mound.  Stewart recovered from charging the bunt, fielded the ball, and threw the baserunner out at 2nd base.  I have never seen a pitcher make a play like that.  

Stewart also had very quick feet on his pickoff turn.  HIs pickoff throws were very accurate. 

Stewart was a very emotional player in the dugout.  If runners reached base during the inning it impacted him.  His discussions with pitching coach Henry Bonilla did not always look pleasant and I think Kohl likes to vent a bit judging from the smiles that Gonslaves gave after Stewart cooled down.

Overall:  While this might sound like an overstatement for a pitcher with a 2.02 ERA, the slider is a major problem.  Stewart can use change of speeds to keep hitters off balance but very few hitters did not make contact against him and while some of the 7 hits against him were pretty weak, some of the outs were very well hit, particularly since he was so consistently ahead in the count.  A pitcher with his velocity and command should not be hit as hard on 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 counts like he was tonight.  

If the slider can be given some grip and he can keep it down in the strike zone Stewart can project to a high level major league pitcher because of his tremendous control.  One issue might be that he throws from too much of a 3/4 angle and to make it to the top part of the rotation they might need to move his arm position up 5 degrees.  This would help his slider and his fastball and generate more movement and less contact.  However, I think they are reluctant to do this to prevent injury.

I thought the slider was supposed to be his dominant pitch that was raved about before the draft and early on? Did the Twins screw him up somehow?