Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 7: 6-10

 also i feel like Polanco should get a shot in MLB at 3B if the Twins end up trading Plouffe

My sense is... out on a limb... if they trade Plouffe, this Sano guy will be the 3B. Polanco hasn't played any 3B since the GCL. He struggles at SS. I think 3B would be more difficult.

So where does Eades fit as a prospect

He's a guy who was right on the borderline of the top 50, and probably - frankly - should be in the high 30s or low 40s. He had a nice season in Ft. Myers. 

If Polanco could just play average SS he would be a top 50 prospect in all of baseball.  Its too bad his glove isn't advanced enough to push him into the majors.  If  Ryan had to trade a prospect for a catcher, I would imagine Polanco and Walker might be trade chips.

I think you're right... that's the difference between him and Gordon at least at this point, in my mind. I see Polanco as a 2B who can really hit well... and that's not a bad thing. Ranking 6th in the Twins organization is nothing to sneeze about. But, if I had any confidence he could play shortstop (and at 22, let's not completely dismiss that as possible), he'd be very highly regarded.

wow, you're higher on Walker than a lot of people.  Is that a gut feel or do you have some sense that he's figuring things out?  I know his walk rate has improved of late (though the K rate has not).  I'm personally hoping that's the first step in him putting it together, but I still have a tough time rating him that high, even though I think he's got a ceiling of perenniel all star if he figures it out. 

 

Let me first say that the difference in rankings between 7 and maybe 13-14 is very minimal. I just think Walker's continued production as he continues to move up, each step getting more difficult, gives me hope that this is the type of player he can be. He can crush mistakes. Big league pitchers make less mistakes, but they still make some. He's going to strike out. My hope is that at some point, he can drop his K-rate to something like 33-35% He has one absolutely elite tool. 

I've seen him take really good plate appearances. I watched quite a few Chattanooga games online when they were available (not their home games, so many of their road games). I saw times where he took some really good sliders. And I saw times where he just couldn't lay off. I know how hard he works. I know how much guys like Doug Mientkiewicz and Chad Allen believe in him and have worked with him the last two years. 

Also, I know he's played parts of four MiLB seasons, but he just turned 24. He was very young for his college draft class. He's not an elite prospect, meaning he's not going to be up at 21 or 22 (obviously, right?). He's going to be more of a down-in-the-lineup, hit some home runs and be a solid contributor types, so if he debuts this season, at 24, that's not too bad. Or, if he waits another season and debuts at 25, that's not too bad either. Obviously he's got plenty of room for improvement. No doubt about that. 

Also on Stewart, do you have any contacts in the org who could answer questions about his lack of Ks?  I know Neil Allen was preaching that from the top down, which is good, but Stewart took a step back in what is typically considered a pitchers league.  I don't have too much of a problem if this is something where they are sacrificing Ks for other developmental gains, but it would be nice to know what the thought process is there.

The FSL is known as a pitcher's league because of all the spring training, Major League sized stadiums. So I don't think assuming more strikeouts would happen, just more fly balls and stuff. I heard that batters still weren't making a lot of hard contact off of him.He's got a chance, but I dropped him at this point because of the lack of strikeouts.

I like this part of the list for its "they could be so AWESOME, or maybe no" aspects. I do think Polanco will be a 2B for someone in the majors, for multiple years. I do think Burdi will succeed in the majors for some years. Stewart? No idea. Gonsalves has a chance to be good, or maybe not. ABWIII......lots of virtual ink has been spilled on him. If he could just learn to walk.....

Which is pretty typical of a 6-10. When 1-5 all have some (or to some level) question marks, and there are many #1 prospects in baseball history that don't make it, this is a decent group. Each of these 5 have legit question marks, to be sure. But each of them could have an impact in the big leagues with further development. I feel good about this group.

I see Walker on the same path as Sano:  Watch for the walks.  That will be the indicator he's ready.  His mechanics  look pretty good,  in  the limited amount I've seen.

I don't think that they're quite on the same path because Sano walks... but there are quite a few similarities.

That's an urban legend.  Here are a couple of quotes on his defense (from here. this season)

 

Molitor: 

 

"I think a lot of people have bought into the fact that what he's done in terms of improving both footwork and arm strength, and believe he has a chance to stick at that spot. I don't think that's unanimous, but I think it's a greater percentage than it used to be.

 

Mientkiewitz:

 

"This is just his second full season at shortstop and we've had some speed bumps," "He's made a lot of careless mental errors, but they don't really have anything to do with him not being able to play the position. He's making the more athletic plays and starting to get a feel for what it means to be a shortstop."

 

Bit different than "struggling".  If someone, like Blyleven, is looking at Errors and FP, sure he has several of those...  but he is not struggling according to people who have seen him play every day.   Not long ago, BA rated his as the best defensive infielder in the organization FWIW...

I think to say that Polanco has struggled at shortstop would be very fair. I've seen him play there, and I believe that he has the ability to be solid. He's got potentially slightly above average range, and we've seen David Eckstein and his arm win a World Series... So, I 100% think it's worth sticking with him at shortstop and the fact he's still just 22 says it's silly to give up on it. In fact, a lot of his errors came in small time periods. I think he had like 8 errors in his first 8 games with Rochester. He had a similar (Though not that bad) stretch at Chattanooga. Outside of those stints, he was probably fine. 

Like I said, I think he can become a decent MLB shortstop. I think the odds are just as good for him to be an MLB SS as it is for Santana. I think Polanco can be as good defensively as Escobar (which is solid, but not spectacular) and that's fine with me.

But i also think it's fair to say that he has struggled.

I think Burdi probably surprised me the most this year.  I thought he'd destroy AA hitters and be on the ML roster by now.  But he still looks like a great bullpen arm.  Very exciting pitcher.

I think it shows that it's a very important reminder that professional baseball players, particularly once you get to AA, can hit a 100 mph fastball... It's a great reminder that even those guys need a second pitch and control (and command) of them. Burdi, in my opinion, will be much better for it... 

Baby steps, but:  Walker - .459 OBP (5th in AFL);  1.137 OPS (6th in AFL); and a .355 BA thus far.  3rd in HRs and 4th in RBI and 5th in Total Bases and still 1st in K's.  Go Figure?

It's 8 games about about 30 plate appearances... we need to be pretty careful with the small samples. It's great that he's doing well. What would be better is if that walk rate can become sustainable.