Prospect Spotlight Series: Jhoan Duran

Certainly hope that the performance Duran finished the year with is a new level for him that he can sustain. Quite something that some of you have him in the top 10 of Twins prospects, ahead of all SPs aside from Graterol. (Ahead of Gonsalves?!? Wasn’t he the top of some lists last year? Has he fallen that far, or is Duran really that good?)

To follow up on this, I looked up Gonsalves’ minor league numbers: 108 games started, 599IP, 2.42ERA, 1.10WHIP, 9.5/3.6 K/BB.

Duran’s numbers: 54GS, 259IP, 4.02ERA, 1.32WHIP, 8.0/3.2K/BB.

Gonsalves had 4 mediocre starts in the big leagues and people have written him off. Not to throw shade on Duran, like I said I hope he turns into a great prospect for the Twins and sustains the improvement. I would have Gonsalves ahead of Duran on prospect lists, though. He could turn into a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. Duran is a long way from becoming that.

Edit to add: I see that you have Gonsalves ahead of Duran, Tom. But two of the four of you have Gonsalves ranked lower than Duran. I think that Gonsalves’ mediocre debut shouldn’t tarnish his outlook. Remember Berrios....

When a pitcher leaves the Twins and suddenly a light bulb goes off and his performance is better, many here and elsewhere begin stoning the Twins coaching staff.  Wouldn't that mean that we should be heaping glory on the pitching coach at Cedar Rapids?  Wasn't he the reason that Duran made the adjustments needed to take that huge step forward?

He's an interesting prospect to be sure. How big is he? This piece lists him at 220lbs; BRef has him at 175lbs (as does Puckett's Pond, but they might be drafting off BRef). Did he really add that kind of weight and fill out that much?

I think that secondary tier is the right area for him, because while he's got a lot of things that are encouraging, there's still plenty for him to work on as a starter. (getting deeper into games, cutting down the BBs, etc) He's been awfully hittable in other stops, so we probably need to be a little careful about putting too much emphasis on 6 starts in Cedar Rapids. I mean, in his 15 starts before he became a Twin he barely averaged 4 innings an outing and was eminently hittable.

I don't think I'd have him in my top 10, but I like having a guy with his upside in that 10-15 range...

To follow up on this, I looked up Gonsalves’ minor league numbers: 108 games started, 599IP, 2.42ERA, 1.10WHIP, 9.5/3.6 K/BB.

Duran’s numbers: 54GS, 259IP, 4.02ERA, 1.32WHIP, 8.0/3.2K/BB.

Gonsalves had 4 mediocre starts in the big leagues and people have written him off. Not to throw shade on Duran, like I said I hope he turns into a great prospect for the Twins and sustains the improvement. I would have Gonsalves ahead of Duran on prospect lists, though. He could turn into a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. Duran is a long way from becoming that.

Edit to add: I see that you have Gonsalves ahead of Duran, Tom. But two of the four of you have Gonsalves ranked lower than Duran. I think that Gonsalves’ mediocre debut shouldn’t tarnish his outlook. Remember Berrios....

Completely agree. Remember Berrios!

A few important questions:

1. How does one pronounce “Jhoan”?

2. Is his nickname Jhoan “Hungry Likes the Wolves” Duran or just Jhoan “Duran” Duran?

3. Can he be convinced to start calling himself Johan?

Wow. I don’t envy those hitters.

Wow, great video commentary, Tom! Sorry, but I've gotta steal "looks like that kid just saw a ghost" next season, that's an instant classic.

Thanks for bringing this up. Another huge selling point to this year's Prospect Handbook is that it includes an accurate height and weight on each player. What's listed on those MiLB or B-Ref profiles is comically outdated, sometimes multiple years old. I wouldn't be surprised if that 175 listing is from when he originally signed back in 2015. For example, Brusdar Graterol is still listed as 6-1, 180 on those sites. No way, the guy looks like a linebacker now.

That's good to know and makes me feel even better about him as a prospect. Hopefully the additional weight and strength will increase his stamina along with the velocity and allow him to get deeper into games.

220lbs seems about right for his frame, and it'll probably help him to not need to keep adding weight and just get used to being this size. It could be that was one of the triggers that helped him have such increased success with the twins.

Thanks for bringing this up. Another huge selling point to this year's Prospect Handbook is that it includes an accurate height and weight on each player. What's listed on those MiLB or B-Ref profiles is comically outdated, sometimes multiple years old. I wouldn't be surprised if that 175 listing is from when he originally signed back in 2015. For example, Brusdar Graterol is still listed as 6-1, 180 on those sites. No way, the guy looks like a linebacker now.

Remember when people thought Sano was actually 195 when he showed up in the bigs because of a weight that was taken when he was like 16? Classic

A few important questions:

1. How does one pronounce “Jhoan”?

2. Is his nickname Jhoan “Hungry Likes the Wolves” Duran or just Jhoan “Duran” Duran?

3. Can he be convinced to start calling himself Johan?

I vote for Duran Duran

I wouldn’t get your hopes up about Duran’s improvements, but one thing I would be excited about if he starts moving prospect lists, is the possibility that he, along with other expendable prospects, could be moved for a “frontline(ish) starter” next offseason, or maybe as soon as next year’s trade deadline.

From everything I gather, he seems to be a very level headed & humble kid.  Just seeing his demeanor change from being locked in on that mound throughout the game, then seeing him afterwards mingling w/fans as a very humble and appreciative kid impressed me.  Very much like R. Lewis impressed me.

Jhoan deserves some accolades after he joined the Kernels.  Still room for skepticism, but he's off to a GREAT start with the organization.

As for the Gonsalves vs. Duran piece.  Come on.  The closer a guy gets to the majors, the further he sinks on prospect lists.  It's just baseball nature, for obvious reasons.  Only the freaks stay at the top and prove it (i.e. Acuna, Albies, Guerrero Jr., Bregman, etc.).  I guess Guerrero hasn't proven it yet, but he's as sure thing as they get.

"Andrew Vasquez was a 32nd-round pick who never garnered prospect list love, but he earned his way all the way to the Major Leagues last season. "

True, where MoY allowed him to throw 3-4 pitches per outing once in a while.

I'm excited to see some of these young bucks in the next cpl years, and hopefully, we've got a Mgr now that will let them actually play a little.