Greene Impresses Twins Brass

I say draft him and don't look back.  My reasons are:

 

1) He is the consensus best player / most upside in the draft.  

2) He is a pitcher that could be Ace material a few years down the road.  

3) Since drafting pitchers is risky for a multitude of reasons, injuries, doesn't improve, etc, this kid would probably be a high round pick as a shortstop.  So if something happens on the pitching front, he actually would have a 2nd shot at becoming a Major League SS, and possibly a very good one.  

I agree with 1 and 2 but #3 is probably unlikely.  Most players were solid two way players in high school, especially pitchers who are usually a teams best athletes.  Obviously, Greene's a bit ahead of all of them but not that far ahead.  If you don't play a position for a few years, it's really hard to catch up.  Stetson Allie was a first round talent as a pitcher but some teams thought he'd be better with his bat.  He pitched for a few years before giving that up to go back to hitting.  He's 26 and still in AA.  If the Twins draft Greene as a pitcher and in a few years they have to try again as a shortstop, he probably won't make it.

I think I'm on Green also. Just too much upside to pass on. If they think McKay is a two, and could hit like Mark Grace, I'd not kill them for that. If they think he's a three, I won't be happy. Not that we'll ever know.

Bonus demands are going to complicate this a bit, too.  If Preller is going to be the dick that we all know he can be, the Twins won't get any savings out of the first pick and might have to go overslot for Greene.  If a college player comes at a discount, they might take that.

Bonus demands are going to complicate this a bit, too.  If Preller is going to be the dick that we all know he can be, the Twins won't get any savings out of the first pick and might have to go overslot for Greene.  If a college player comes at a discount, they might take that.

How is it being a "dick" to get your client the best deal possible?

No way I pass on the best player over a few hundred K. No way. They should take the best player on their board.

How is it being a "dick" to get your client the best deal possible?

 

No way I pass on the best player over a few hundred K. No way. They should take the best player on their board.

Preller is SD's GM, not Greene's adviser.  

Preller is SD's GM, not Greene's adviser.  

Oh, that. Right, I forgot about that.

Not worried in the least. Take the best player, offer him the money, and go from there.

I was not implying anything about questioning his age. What I was meaning(and didn't say very well) is that he has maybe physically matured a little ahead of kids his same age. As same age players catch up he may come back to the pack a little with his results in the coming years. Having said that, he does seem impressive.

He's only 17. A lot of HS seniors will turn 19 this calendar year, if they aren't already. 

Is he physically better than other around him? Of course, that's why he might go 1:1. Is he more physically mature? Probably not significantly, compared to where he will be in 3-4 years.

KLAW did say that Greene would be a top ten pick as a SS also....but no one is drafting him as a SS first. 

 

I believe too much of Greene's value is being placed in projection. High school results aren't the be all end all but when they stray to far from comps that should be a red flag that perhaps his stock is in bubble territory.

Every single player you listed was drafted based on projection.  None were drafted b/c of their HS stats.  Those are completely meaningless.  The issue is if the people doing the projecting think Greene is/will be better than the other guys they are looking at.  If he is, they'll probably draft him.

Definitely not a huge fan of Greene with the 1-1 pick.   Even KLaw who likes the guy, has this to say about his stuff (from his piece yesterday here).  Emphasis mine.

Greene's fastball doesn't have much life, but it's very easy. He threw two changeups, both 89 mph, one in the dirt and one pretty good, especially because he maintained his arm speed.

The biggest question mark within Greene's present arsenal is his breaking ball. He's throwing both a curveball and slider now and they run into each other. On Friday night you could see how he was raising his arm to get some forced angle on the curveball, but I think he's going to end up a slider guy

So. What do we have here:  A guy who can throw hard but his FB does not have much life (Tonkin anyone?), whose change up is a work in progress with only 6-10 mph differential from his FB, and the biggest questionmark is his breaking ball because he does not know what to do with it.

And gets small catholic High School kids,none of whom are even on the radar for being half way decent, out with 100 mph because they cannot catch up to his fastball, and is a good Shortstop who hits against small catholic High School pitchers, none of whom are even on the radar for being half way decent,  and he is a "great story".

A great story might be, but a good 1st overall pick, he ain't.  Would you pick a guy with Tonkin potential (maybe if he gets a second pitch) 1-1?  I wouldn't.  Sorry.  No matter how good a story he is and no matter how much the ones who get paid by the word they write, write about him...

I would challenge anyone to find statistical comparisons to Greene that went in the top 3 picks. I have spot checked a few recent picks and every one outperformed Greene in high school. Eg. Nick Gordon batted 1.483 his senior year. Greene batted 1.250 last year, but is only at .971 so far in 2017. Justin Upton, who was a SS in high school, batted .508 with 12 homers his senior year. Greene is at .306 with 3 homers through a half season. Andrew McCutchen batted .709 with 16 homers. Colby Rasmus batted .484 with 24 homers.

 

Similar story on the mound- Greene has 43 Ks in 28 IP  (106 BF, 40.6%, 13.8 K/9).

By comparison, Kershaw struckout 139 in 64 IP (19.5 K/9). porcello struckout 112 in 71 IP (14.8 K/9). Odorizzi sruckout 146 in 89.2 innings (14.7 k/9). The highest of these picks was Kershaw at 7. Porcello was 27th and Odorizzi was 32nd. Further, a few of these guys put up better numbers at the plate too, while attending schools 2-3 times as large in attendance. Suggesting they faced tougher competition.

 

I believe too much of Greene's value is being placed in projection. High school results aren't the be all end all but when they stray to far from comps that should be a red flag that perhaps his stock is in bubble territory.

I know it is stat lines, but this really does say a lot.  If he has ML stuff, he should be destroying high schoolers better than he is.  It tells me that even if he's successful, don't expect him up in 3 years.

That would be said, it would be interesting to see more than a few guys here.  I'd love to see HS stats of guys like Stewart, various big named failed pitching prospects, and a few under the radar guys that made it.... would be fine to look at.

I can't remember if it's in this thread or a ba chat but the idea that Greene is only throwing to little catholic boys is stupid. He's pitching against opponents that are going to major baseball colleges. (Buxton and Trout both faced inferior HS competition as well.)

Jonathan Mayo noted that Greene has dominated in the summer showcase circuits, ""I've been going to the Area Code Games forever and I like to tell people the best pitcher I've seen there has been Josh Beckett," the NL scouting director said. "I think Greene went past him.""

There are valid reasons to not draft Greene but the caliber of his opponents is not one of them.

I thought Greene was still playing his high school schedule. Have the area code game started already?

Last year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/area-code-baseball/greene-leads/#mZpXTv7qomElkd4w.97