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Major decisions are looming over the franchise as the Twins head into the offseason. After a year that ended in bitter disappointment, ownership and the front office face the dilemma of maintaining a competitive roster while dealing with budgetary constraints. One option that could shift the team’s trajectory is trading their star shortstop, Carlos Correa. It’s not an easy decision, but given the organization’s current financial outlook and Correa’s recent injury history, it could be forced upon them.
This past winter, Twins ownership boldly (Is bold the right word? Well, let's see if it pays off for them.) decided to lower the team’s payroll by $30 million. The writing on the wall seems even more ominous after a formal move to league-produced and -disseminated broadcasts that will bring in less revenue than their old TV deals, and after a drop in attendance in 2024. Heading into 2025, reports indicate that the payroll will remain around the same level as last year, well into the bottom half of the league’s spending rankings.
For a mid-market team like Minnesota, a stagnant payroll poses significant challenges. The Twins don’t have the luxury of stockpiling marquee free agents every offseason, meaning the front office must get creative with how they allocate resources. With Correa slated to earn $36 million next season, he represents a sizable portion of that budget. The question the Twins must ask themselves is whether that investment makes sense for a team that might be considering a soft rebuild--or, even framing their situation as focused on winning in the short term, whether a player who is unlikely to take more than about 500 plate appearances next year can justifiably take up so much of the payroll.
Ignoring Correa’s importance is impossible when he’s on the field. After an impressive All-Star season in 2024, he showed why he remains one of the elite shortstops in the game. His glove is still one of the league’s best up-the-middle options, when he has his feet under him, and his bat flashed the form that made him a key cog in Houston’s World Series runs. He cobbled together a 152 OPS+, his highest mark since 2017. Defensively, his OAA ranked in the 87th percentile.
Yet, it’s also hard to overlook the fact that injuries have impacted Correa in each of his two years since re-signing with the Twins on a long-term basis. He even missed a couple of weeks back in 2022.
In 2023, he played through painful, nagging plantar fasciitis, which hampered his production down the stretch. In 2024, he missed significant time again, with plantar fasciitis impacting his other foot, and it caused him to miss most of the season's final two months. Though his early-season numbers were All-Star caliber, the durability concerns are hard to ignore when projecting his future value.
The Twins could be looking at a scenario where they’re paying top dollar for a player who might not be available often enough to return value commensurate with the share of their resources allocated to him. For a team aiming to contend every year, that’s a risk you take. But for a team looking to make a major transition? That’s a luxury they might not be able to afford.
Correa’s contract includes a full no-trade clause, a significant hurdle for any potential deal. However, there are a few scenarios in which Correa might be willing to waive it. The most obvious one involves the Twins being honest with him about the state of the franchise. If the front office communicates that the club is unlikely to be able to build a winner around him due to their new financial reality, Correa could recognize that his remaining prime years would be better spent elsewhere. He may also be frustrated about how the team has collapsed in two of his three seasons with the club. If the Twins are going in a new direction, Correa may be willing to go to a team with a better chance of winning in the short term.
Correa signed with the Twins, in part, because he believed the team was on the verge of sustained success. If that vision no longer aligns with reality, he could opt for a chance to win another championship. Teams like the Dodgers or Yankees, with their financial flexibility and championship aspirations, would undoubtedly be interested in adding him, on what ended up being a fairly team-friendly contract--assuming a Dodgers- or Yankees-like payroll. Given the size of his contract and injury concerns, the Twins might not get a king’s ransom for him, but they could net some valuable prospects to jumpstart a rebuild or help extend their winning window. Most importantly, they'd get at least a majority of the money tied up in Correa back, to spend broadly on their current core or in free agency.
The decision to trade Correa won’t be easy, but it may be necessary. Perhaps this is the move that could get the organization moving affirmatively in the right direction again, even if it means saying goodbye to their franchise player. If the Twins truly intend to reset, parting ways with their star shortstop may be the cost of doing business in a league that rewards flexibility and future planning over sentimentality.
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