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    Why Isn't Mitch Garver Playing More?


    Jamie Cameron

    Jason Castro recently became the latest in a series of injuries and suspension which have contributed to a pedestrian start to the 2018 season for the Minnesota Twins. Castro was struggling offensively, his slow start already stimulating debate around how much playing time Mitch Garver should have.

    Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

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    Since Castro hit the DL on May 5th, Garver and local happy hour goer Bobby Wilson have surprisingly split reps at catcher. Garver has caught nine games, played once at DH and served as a PH twice, while Wilson has caught eight games himself.

    This seems odd.

    Garver is clearly an upgrade over Wilson offensively. While he has had some blunders in the field, Garver has also been far from a liability and even shown some areas of catching strength (throwing out base runners). This led me to ask the question: Why are the Twins handling their catching situation the way they are? What can we expect from the club moving forwards, assuming they can stay within striking distance of Cleveland?

    Hitting

    Castro was having an appalling offensive start before he went down with a meniscus injury which ultimately ended his season. In my previous piece on Castro, I contended that he put up fairly average offensive numbers for a catcher, ranking sixth among catchers in OBP in 2017 (minimum 400 plate appearances), and first in BB% (11.1%). Castro had been putrid his year, managing a .257 OBP (compared to .333 in 2017). This was not aided by an unbelievable .216 BABIP. Perhaps Castro has been inhibited by his injury throughout the season, we’ll never know. What we do know is that his ‘generally solid offensive production for a catcher’ was way down.

    Garver was thought to be an offensive upgrade over Castro. So far, that has proven to be the case, at least over the 2018 version of Castro. Garver has a 5.5% BB% (Eddie Rosario was at 5.9% in his ‘more disciplined’ 2017), and a 30% K% (Miguel Sano was 35% in 2017). Garver has gotten on base at a .303 clip, not great but significantly better than 2018 Castro. These numbers are still a small major league sample. His walk rate, in particular, should stabilize and increase over time to around the 10% he has averaged throughout his career.

    Wilson, despite delivering some big hits for the Twins so far, is an offensive liability. In nine seasons, he has a .213/.266/.321 offensive line in 875 plate appearances. Make no mistake, despite Castro’s awful start, he’s light years ahead of Bobby Wilson.

    Regular Fielding

    DRS (defensive runs saved – which measures fielders by the number of runs above or below average) is a particularly limited statistic to use on catchers because catching is so complicated and encompasses so many different elements than ‘regular’ fielding does. Additionally, it’s particularly prone to fairly volatile variations and doesn’t usually stabilize until hit a larger sample (at least a season).

    In 2017 Castro had a DRS of +10 (Gold Glove winner Martin Maldonado was +22). In 620 innings caught in 2016 (his last season consistently playing in the majors) Wilson had a DRS of -3. This is fascinating because as an offensive no-show, Wilson is automatically described as having value as a ‘solid defender’ and ‘good club-house guy’. Those may both be true, but Wilson’s last season with a positive DRS was 2015. In 145.0 early innings for the 2018 Twins, Garver is -2. Other than naming this, it’s much too early to read further into Garver’s general fielding of his position.

    Preventing Base Stealing

    Both Castro and Garver have done a god job at preventing the running game this season for the Twins. For context here, of active catchers, the best active career caught stealing% is Yadier Molina at just under 41%, Castro is 25th among active catchers at 26%, Kurt Suzuki, a pretty sub-par defensive catcher, is 36th at 23% (Joe Mauer is 10th on this list at 33%!).

    The Twins trio fit interesting here, fully acknowledging that we are early in the season and there is an extremely small sample size. Through Sunday, Castro was at 40%, Garver 30%, and Wilson 0% (only 2 attempts). What has been clear in the early going, is Garver has a good, and accurate, arm, and seemingly a solid approach to getting runners.

    Statcast allows us to be even more precise with this breakdown. Interestingly, Castro and Garver excel in slightly different areas, with Wilson unsurprisingly lagging behind. Pop time measures the amount of time from the pitch hitting the catcher’s mitt to the moment the ball reaches the fielder’s receiving point at the center of the base. Mitch Garver has the fastest pop time of the three, averaging 2.03 seconds, good for 40th out of 75th catchers. Wilson is 75th at 2.32. This is the pop time equivalent to Albert Pujols running to first base, extremely pedestrian. Castro ranked 48th before his injury, close to Garver.

    In exchange (the amount of time it takes to get the ball out of the glove), Castro is a top-20 catcher, with an average time of 0.70. This is a much less developed skill for Garver, who comes in 65th at 0.79. Wilson, again, ranks last in MLB at 0.90. These increments might seem small, but they mater when you’re trying to throw out folks running at 29 feet per second. Of course, while all of these factors contribute to being able to throw out base runners, the runner himself and the time the pitcher takes to get the ball to the catcher are also vital factors. These numbers do bear out however, that we can trust our eyes and assume that Bobby Wilson is the least athletic catching option the Twins have.

    Game Management

    Through Sunday May 20th, the table below was true of Twins pitching when being caught by each of the team’s catchers. I don’t think there’s a ton to read into this. These numbers undoubtedly ebb and flow with the fortunes of how the team is playing in general.

    Castro caught the majority of games in the Twins miserable stretch that culminated in a series of butt-whoopings by the Yankees. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Castro can call an excellent game. This potentially is where Wilson may have an edge on Garver.

    One way to take advantage of Wilson’s increased game calling experience would be to pair him with a specific pitcher (Fernando Romero would be an excellent candidate), in order to develop a strong pitcher/catcher relationship and develop a relationship with his stuff. The Twins however, should not be splitting or near splitting catching time from an offensive standpoint. Even with Garver’s numbers still being a small sample, he should be getting closer to 80% of playing time rather than 50%.

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    Twins Next Steps

    It will be fascinating to see what the Twins do at catcher as the season progresses. What’s clear from this examination is that Bobby Wilson, while fitting the ‘loveable, defensively dependable backup’ narrative, is actually a pretty terrible option, particularly offensively. There will be some bigger names on the trade market this summer, such as JT Realmuto, whom I wouldn’t expect the Twins to aggressively pursue.

    The Twins could get a moderate upgrade on Wilson via trade for a far smaller price, who they could use in a more effective time split with Garver. Alternatively, it would be fascinating to see if AAA catcher Willians Astudillo gets any consideration for major league catching time. In 99 ABs for the Rochester Red Wings, Astudillo has a .273/.305/.495 line with five HR.

    What do you think of the current Twins time share at catcher? Would you make a move? Stick with Wilson? Or give Astudillo a chance?

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    Except, of course, that their opening day lineup (sans suspension) was basically homegrown.

     

    Mauer

    Dozier

    Polanco

    Sano

    Kepler 

    Buxton

    Rosario

     

    That's every defensive position except the one who Garver backs up.

     

    It's probably worth noting that we have a very deep system. Plenty of SPs that won't be going anywhere any time soon. I kind of wonder if makes sense to find a decent upside AAA catcher. Castro will be around next year, and they will need a second catcher anyways. Rortvedt won't be ready any time soon. Sounds like the kind of scenario where we could send a way a couple of decent prospects for a decent catcher and everyone could win.

    It's probably worth noting that we have a very deep system. Plenty of SPs that won't be going anywhere any time soon. I kind of wonder if makes sense to find a decent upside AAA catcher. Castro will be around next year, and they will need a second catcher anyways. Rortvedt won't be ready any time soon. Sounds like the kind of scenario where we could send a way a couple of decent prospects for a decent catcher and everyone could win.

    Just took a look at AAA...

     

    It is hard to find a someone playing better than Astudillo that a team would be willing to trade.

     

    In the IL only one player younger than Astudillo his hitting and I would guess it would take a lot to pry Danny Jansen away from the Blue Jays. The other young catchers are Francisco Mejia and Reese McGuire. We might go after McGuire but he has never hit in the minors.

     

    In the PCL the younger catchers have been called up in Carson Kelly and Jacob Nottingham. Nottingham is back in AAA. He didn’t hit well outside of PCL. When the Cards brought up Kelly, they also moved Andrew Knizner up a level. He is a good prospect.

     

    The Cardinals have Molina through 2020 and a few good 23 year olds. They are the only team I can see to target once Molina is healthy. Gordon might be a fit here.

     

    The Blue Jays have Jansen and McGuire but they also have a major league need at catcher. I can’t see them very interested in moving either and certainly not Jansen.

     

    Maybe there is some hope in Astudillo.

     

    Except, of course, that their opening day lineup (sans suspension) was basically homegrown.

     

    Mauer

    Dozier

    Polanco

    Sano

    Kepler 

    Buxton

    Rosario

     

    That's every defensive position except the one who Garver backs up.

     

    Sure.  But including Mauer and Dozier in the list is a bit misleading since they are now both over 30 and Mauer probably in his last year of his career.

     

    Second, when you consider how poorly this team has performed over the past 7 seasons that is the prosepcts this team has delivered to the big league team?

     

    If you look at the pitching staff it is the same story.  Berrios, Gibson, Hildenberger, and Taylor Rogers.  And of those 4 only Berrios is under the age of 25.  Think about that.  We have suffered through 95-100+ loss seasons and the only real pitching prospect that has been delivered is Berrios.

     

    Oh, sure there is Fernando Romero.  He is under 25 but lets face it.  If the front office had its way he would still be in Rochester.   There probably just wasn't a retread on waivers they could find.   Sure, I get that eventually his hot start might balance out when he goes thorugh the league a second time but he has demonstrated he has MLB stuff RIGHT NOW. 

     

    Gonsalves and Wade are two players that should be up right now.  Move Lynn to the BP until he gets his stuff working again and send LaMarre back to the minors were he belongs.  

    Oh, sure there is Fernando Romero.  He is under 25 but lets face it.  If the front office had its way he would still be in Rochester. There probably just wasn't a retread on waivers they could find.

    Somehow, the presence of a player on the roster is evidence to the contrary?

    It's kind of strange. I wonder where these issues are coming from. 

     

    I remember reading experts saying that his defense was good. 

     

    Are the issues fixable? Will he never be a decent defensive catcher?

     

    It is really hard to sort out the experts. There is so much scouting and prospect reporting by the stat line. Reports are repeated by other sources giving them additional weight. The only way to reliably assess a catcher’s defense is to watch them in person several times. How many experts saw him catch several games?

     

    I think he has worked very hard and improved considerably from the time he was drafted. We have read about his hard work and improvement. Those phrases are also a cautionary flag about a player. I don’t recall reading about Buxton improving defensively or working hard on his defense.

    I counted four balls tonight that hit Garver in the glove that he didn’t catch, including the SB in the first that led directly to Seattle’s first run. That should happen once a month, maybe. Multiple pitches that he stabbed at.

    I don’t think he can be the primary catcher. Catcher is just too important. He handles every pitch that isn’t put in play.

    I mostly agree with this, I was going to post a snarky joke in the game thread that Garver was breaking in a new catchers mitt but forgot to stick it between his mattresses last night and rub it down with oil (and thereby teeing up another game thread joke for someone else).

     

    However, I feel its unfair to claim that the front office is "dropping the ball" by not immediately trading for an All Star catcher currently playing in another organization. Not saying you specifically are doing that, but some seem to have that expectation. Our guy got hurt and is done for the year. It's unfortunate. It happens. The front office is working on improving this situation, guaranteed. Meantime, pitchers seem to like pitching to Garver, and he is not an easy out at the plate (in contrast to Castro), though the production hasn't really been there of late.

     

    It also looks like Garver's receiving skills are not polished, which was noticeable after people started pointing this out in the game thread last night (stabbing at borderline strikes that weren't at his glove, like Suzuki would, and assuring they'll be called balls). He had no chance to catch Romero's wild pitches in the 6th.

     

    Garver might improve, he might not, but probably will. Castro is done. It it is what it is. I'd play the catchers 50/50 or or 60/40 for Garver, until another guy is brought in (and then still might play them 50/50, depending).

    I would just like to make a couple of points first:

     

    1] Life schedule has prevented me from watching as much of Garver as I would like. So when I read disparaging comments concerning his defense, I completely respect the opinions/observations of others who have watched him perhaps more than I have.

     

    2] Garver is a rookie. Truly great/very good defensive catchers often don't hit. (See Butera). Catchers who can really hit often aren't good behind the plate. Guys like Rodriguez, Mauer, Posse, are really unique and very scarce. I think this comment is a pretty obvious one.

     

    That being said, what I HAVE seen of Garver hasn't been poor behind the plate, with a few bad plays I fully admit. (Overall, a dropped ball here and there doesn't concern me as I've seen even the best drop balls).

     

    What is there to like about Garver? He has shown, in milb and MLB, that he can throw, that he can hit, and that he has decent pop/power. If he were elite defensively, I think we would have heard raves before now. Again, still a rookie now pressed in to a more prominent role. Is it possible his defense continues to improve?

     

    I posted this in the game thread last night, and bring it here now. Since April 1st, the Twins have had 12 games in which they had a shutout or allowed only 1 run. Garver has caught 7 of those 12 games, Castro 3 and Wilson 2 in his SSS. He also caught Romero's 7IP gem last night, but it doesn't meet the criteria. Does this mean he's actually good defensively? Absolutely Not! But I think it's worth noting for this discussion.

     

    Someone asked who was pitching in those 7 games. So I went back and looked it up. FWIW, Odorizzi was the SP in 5 of those 7, and Berrios and Lynn for the other 2.

     

    Castro is gone. Garver is here. To deny flaws would be foolish. To deny potential would also be foolish. Perhaps Molitor is protecting Garver for the full season length, as has been suggested, or trusting in the defensive chops of Wilson, as has also been suggested, as Garver grows in to a more prominent role. Regardless, I think it's way too early to simply dismiss the potential of Garver. And I believe he should be starting more than Wilson. Far more potential, and he earned the backup job for that reason. And maybe the FO DOES need to go out and bring someone else in. But wouldn't it also make a ton of sense to let him play and see what he really is and can be? I think everyone, FO down to fans already has an idea who and what Wilson is.

    I think we're also forgetting that Garver has never been an everyday catcher in the minors. He's shared time with Turner and gotten reps at 1B/OF/DH. Last year he caught 67 games which, given his late season promotion, was around half the games.

     

    But isn’t this the issue in a nutshell? I know they were planning on Castro being the guy at C all year and not having Garver as an everyday guy but they are essentially experimenting with a guy playing and learning catcher on the job at the major league level. That’s unacceptable.

    It's kind of strange. I wonder where these issues are coming from. 

     

    I remember reading experts saying that his defense was good. 

     

    Are the issues fixable? Will he never be a decent defensive catcher?

     

    I remember it as the scouts loving Stuart Turner’s defense, not Garver.

     

    Garver I remember described as “defensively, he has a chance to be a decent hitter.”

    I remember it as the scouts loving Stuart Turner’s defense, not Garver.

    Yeah, I will always remember those two together. The thought was that if you could combine these two players' strengths you'd have a pretty darn good catcher. Unfortunately, platoons don't yet work this way. After reaching a level of batting inadequacy at AA, Turner's offense has declined to tragi-comic these past couple of years. And Garver's defense has failed to progress.

    Garver is still extremely inexperienced behind the plate. He has fewer than 3000 innings caught as a professional. John Ryan Murphy, who is actually a few months YOUNGER, has over 5400, close to DOUBLE.

     

    Garver may or may not ever get better, but to expect him to be a polished receiver now is simply not realistic. Through no fault of his own. Why Anthony Recker wasn’t retained this offseason is a curiosity only Falvine can explain. Would he be a better hitter than Wilson?

     

    The numbers say yes. Maybe not much, but likely some.

    Why Anthony Recker wasn’t retained this offseason is a curiosity only Falvine can explain. Would he be a better hitter than Wilson?

     

    The numbers say yes. Maybe not much, but likely some.

    Swap Recker and Wilson in Reno, and you might see crazy numbers from Bobby too.

    Let Garver play more and take his lumps, or watch him show some improvement. Meanwhile, I also vote to give Astudillo a chance. After the Castro injury it's tempting to want to go out and find an upgrade at catcher, but I'm still not confident enough that the Twins are going to be playoff contenders this year. If someone good falls into our laps, take it, but I don't want to see any foolish trades at this point.

     

    Somehow, the presence of a player on the roster is evidence to the contrary?

     

    It isn't because if the front office had its way Romero would still be in AAA.  HE isn't here because it was the choice of the FO, he is here because of injuries to the pitchers they chose to begin the season on the active 25.  

     

    Garver is still extremely inexperienced behind the plate. He has fewer than 3000 innings caught as a professional. John Ryan Murphy, who is actually a few months YOUNGER, has over 5400, close to DOUBLE.

    Garver may or may not ever get better, but to expect him to be a polished receiver now is simply not realistic. Through no fault of his own. Why Anthony Recker wasn’t retained this offseason is a curiosity only Falvine can explain. Would he be a better hitter than Wilson?

    The numbers say yes. Maybe not much, but likely some.

     

    I get the argument about Garver, but lets face it.  He is already 27 years old.   AS a college draft pick he did a draft year at Rookie, a full year of A, A+, AA, and AAA.  Even though he has been a relatively successful minor league hitter the Twins have not shown any hurry in bringing him up, only giving him a late season call up last year.

     

    Using your comparison, JOhn Ryan Murphy reached the major leagues at 22 despite not being as successful of a hitter.  And while Murphy was a high school draft choice so that may have given him a bit of a head start, he also was in a system of a major league team that was winning so they had a much better talent level on their roster.  

     

    The Twins should have moved Garver up to the major league level full time 2 years ago.  We were a rebuilding organization and giving a guy like Garver the opportunity to get experience, develop at the big league level, and either find success or fail was important.  

     

    It isn't because if the front office had its way Romero would still be in AAA. HE isn't here because it was the choice of the FO, he is here because of injuries to the pitchers they chose to begin the season on the active 25.

    Romero isn't up because of injuries. Santana was out long before the season started.

    There have been no other injuries to the starting rotation.

    Romero was clearly their first option to come up if Hughes struggled in the 5th starter role, which he did.

     

    If the front office wanted Romero to still be in AAA, he'd still be in AAA. They could have called up Mejia or Slegers if they wanted to keep Romero down.

    It's a sign of how desperate we are that we're spending time lamenting how much offense we can squeeze out of the catcher position.  That position didn't figure to provide much offense in 2018.  But now that about 5-6 other position players are producing offensively what you might expect from a catcher...and at least one producing offensively what you'd expect from a pitcher...yeah, might as well find out how much Garver can improve defensively.

     

     

     

    But isn’t this the issue in a nutshell? I know they were planning on Castro being the guy at C all year and not having Garver as an everyday guy but they are essentially experimenting with a guy playing and learning catcher on the job at the major league level. That’s unacceptable.

     

    They were planning on Garver having this year and next to learn under Castro. That got thrown under the bus with Castro's injury, which could not be foreseen. I'm glad they're focusing on Garver's long-term development by easing him into everyday catching (which again, isn't just the physical part but also the mental game-calling, memorizing hitter tendencies, working umps etc.)

     

    It's also worth noting that its not a bad idea to see Wilson a bit more to see what he has. Give him a chance to solve your problem at backup catcher before you go shopping at the expensive deadline. Only way to see what he has is to play him a bit more. The fact that it eases Garver's time is icing on the cake.

     

    This feels way to instinctively negative. The Twins eased Garver at catcher in the minors for a reason - they had other guys they liked too and they didn't want to push him too hard. Those are things I trust coaching staffs to do correctly, perhaps in ways I don't understand as a layperson.

     

    They were planning on Garver having this year and next to learn under Castro. That got thrown under the bus with Castro's injury, which could not be foreseen. I'm glad they're focusing on Garver's long-term development by easing him into everyday catching (which again, isn't just the physical part but also the mental game-calling, memorizing hitter tendencies, working umps etc.)

     

    It's also worth noting that its not a bad idea to see Wilson a bit more to see what he has. Give him a chance to solve your problem at backup catcher before you go shopping at the expensive deadline. Only way to see what he has is to play him a bit more. The fact that it eases Garver's time is icing on the cake.

     

    This feels way to instinctively negative. The Twins eased Garver at catcher in the minors for a reason - they had other guys they liked too and they didn't want to push him too hard. Those are things I trust coaching staffs to do correctly, perhaps in ways I don't understand as a layperson.

    See what he has??

     

    He's 35 yrs old.

     

    Also, Garver's "long term development?"

     

    He's 27.

     

    See what he has??

     

    He's 35 yrs old.

     

    Also, Garver's "long term development?"

     

    He's 27.

     

    The Twins control Garver through 2024 so that long-term development is real, regardless of age. The Twins have a vested interest in having Garver turn into a solid big league starting catcher - it would be very valuable. We too often think that guys are fully formed by age 27 and learning is over. Garver is very much still developing.

     

    You're seeing if Bobby Wilson is good enough to be a backup (so far the answer is no). But in 2013 he put up a 660 OPS. That's not great but for a backup catcher that might be good enough that any realistic upgrade is not worth the price you'd pay.

     

    Bobby Wilson is new to the Twins, they need to see what they have. Thus far, not much. Get Lucroy!

     

    It isn't because if the front office had its way Romero would still be in AAA.  HE isn't here because it was the choice of the FO, he is here because of injuries to the pitchers they chose to begin the season on the active 25.  

     

    LOL!  Ok.   WHile I will state taht there is a very probable chance that Romero will come back to earth and perhaps will go through a stretch were he will really struggle, the FO wanted Phil Hughes and others on the pitching staff instead of Romero. 

     

    And the sad part is that it is so obvious of a mistake that I cannot believe you are defending it.  IF you bring Romero, a MUCH BETTER PITCHER WITH UPSIDE, north instead of Hughes we would be a better team from the beginning and we might be getting Romero's growing pains out fo the way sooner rather than later.

     

    Instead, the club decided a has been would be in their rotation instead of a developing prospect.

     

    Listen, you can make excuses for the FO all you want, the results speak for themselves.  IF you cannot admit they were wrong then you just are not looking at reality.

     

    LOL!  Ok.   WHile I will state taht there is a very probable chance that Romero will come back to earth and perhaps will go through a stretch were he will really struggle, the FO wanted Phil Hughes and others on the pitching staff instead of Romero. 

     

    And the sad part is that it is so obvious of a mistake that I cannot believe you are defending it.  IF you bring Romero, a MUCH BETTER PITCHER WITH UPSIDE, north instead of Hughes we would be a better team from the beginning and we might be getting Romero's growing pains out fo the way sooner rather than later.

     

    Instead, the club decided a has been would be in their rotation instead of a developing prospect.

     

    Listen, you can make excuses for the FO all you want, the results speak for themselves.  IF you cannot admit they were wrong then you just are not looking at reality.

    The Twins did not need a fifth starter until April 22nd, over three weeks into the season.

     

    Fernando Romero made his first start on May 2nd.

     

    You're complaining about ten days. Ten days.

     

    Never mind the fact that had Romero been on the Minnesota roster, he would have rusted away for three weeks before getting a start. Meanwhile, in Rochester he got several starts and 21 IP to shake off the rust and come up to Minnesota as prepared as can be.

     

    The front office's moves aren't only defensible, they're logical. You don't add a rookie as a fifth starter on Opening Day if you play your home games in Target Field because the dude is going to waste away through most of April.

     

    Get through the off day and weather madness of early April, then call up a rookie as fifth starter. Bonus points that you get a full additional year of control over the player as a result.




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